I have never bought lousy counters thrown away by shell to China companies before, or near bankrupt heavily in debt mergers like sapura. But I often read on the company in i3, and especially certain select individuals who say it is worth rm35 - rm45. Then quickly change their tune when it turns out their prognosis was incorrect to begin with.

Despatch boys and accountants are always like that, they can always give you whatever delivery time you want ( or intrinsic value you can dream of) without putting in the reality of the acting on that promise.

I bought PCHEM for the value of it's existing business at rm8.15, not only for it's future valuations, which if comes is wonderful, but if it doesn't come, I can still enjoy 3.9% dividends@50% earnings.

You on the other hand, buy loss making companies like sapnrg and talamt hoping that the future will come save you.

It won't.
>>>>>>>

...u soh soh like Philip advice u to buy Hengyuan when it fall at Rm 11.00 to Rm 12.00....u will end up bankrupt loh...!! This is bcos the fall is not so little loh....!!

The real money is not in the buying or selling... But in the waiting.
The question always remains, once you sell, buy what?

I have always struggled to push my investment philosophy, buy when you see a company has a distinct competitive advantage, sell only when that competitive advantage changes, the company changes, the management deteriorates, or when your financial circumstance changes.

If the business fundamentals did not change when you guys bought the stock, or you found a more compelling stock to purchase that you do not have enough funds for, why sell at all?

It's like selling your house just because there is a +/-15% change in value.

Why bother the small changes in share price?
>>>>>>>

i sold at 9.10...break even with the dividend at 18 cents

From office boy to accountant, very impressive. Almost as impressive as fake engineer to investment banker specializing in sukuk and m&a.

Clap clap clap.

No wonder stoneraider is such a bad investor keep buying sape and talamt etc... He reads pundits from Malay mail. Can suddenly come out so many unconfirmed theories from something that happened at 130 am this morning. Clap clap clap!

No one told you that pic is not operational yet? No earnings from here yet little kid. What accounting policy, yours?

>>>>>>
This means u will see lower earnings for pchem for q2 30 june 2019 result loh....!!
Beside Pchem will also suffer from project delay too, which the operations will be affected by higher overheads and financial cost loh....!!

Can't you just let Simon RIP? I really feel like running you over now in my Hitachi 350.

It is in very poor taste to bring up investar in this forum. Icon8888 you are really a piece of shit.

Yeah, because not fully operational. If fully operational the fire will not be so small.

Ok thank God, just called up my friends working there. Its from a leaking gas tank at the petrochemical (PIC) facility not the main refinery ( which would be catastrophic). Fire contained in 30 minutes, thank God no one died ( 2 injured). Luckily good ERT at 130 am still alert as it was still running monitoring for the testing and commissioning phase.

Let's all not catch the falling knife and pick up only in may when the earnings come out. This is why I always only buy when the quarterly results come out. Most likely this will not affect earnings as still under construction and not operational. So no losses to PCHEM ( insured and still under construction), however there will definitely be a big delay and will miss September q4 earnings date.

As my daughter is so fond of those poster t shirts these days, "Keep calm and Carry on".

Buying opportunity arises.

Omg such a huge explosion. Testing and commissioning really not easy... Share price will definitely drop today.

This is actually a very very well written article. I like it! I totally agree.

Wow, the consistent share buyback is impressive. Just like Berkshire share of American express, without buying a single new share, their shareholdings of YINSON can grow and grow and grow. I am blessed.

I wish I can buy more, so sad... Ran out of money. Have to wait for next dividend run.

Yes I realized that, people like icon8888 only hear what they want to hear, alternative views are heavily discouraged. I at least spent some time to dig further and meet with Steven Ang himself directly for drinks and q&a session. Maybe I should charge 5k to show JAKS investors the salient details of my discussion line that choivo boy.

Bye, this is a toxic counter I won't be commenting here anymore. Everyone is only interested in getting confirmation bias. And not discussing what issues are pertinent.

Probably dK66 is the only real investor here.

>>>>>>

aiyo Unker Philip I thought you know better lah, you can't argue with people who has skin in game de mah! It's like this de lo!!! I not saying JAKS is bad ah don't shoot me!!!

Hi little girl trader, I look at long term results, not short term trading. When I said the future, try looking at success in the longer term (2017 rm1.90, 2018 rm1.02 versus today 0.75) and the revenue and earnings quarterly results. You want to be proud of 3 months results? Then give you lo, sifu, you make 100% returns consistently every year for 10 years?

Sorry I follow you into LCTITAN lose money leh... How?

>>>>>>
10/04/2019 5:11 PM

Icon8888 When I called for buy of success transformer at 57 Sen, little girl also jump into conclusion about china competitors etc said no future

Now success is 75 and latest Q result chun chun

See? Can't respond with actual figures and results, you start reaching for random events such to JAKS, do you have real empirical results to show that the IPP they have is doing well? It is not operational, so anything you say goes. I have empirical evidence that QL has diversified far beyond just chickens and culling did not even slow it down ( unlike layhong).


>>>>>>
i3Value You talk down all business without looking at your own business biggest risk.

The only contract uncertainty they had was resolved when my boss signed the LA last week. For you and your 70 billion net worth in 3 years 3 months, let me ask you a simple question, can you name their entire order book? All the clients that has give the orders to sape, what the irr and expected profit margin of those orders are? What ships are being deployed and in what sectors? All within 5 minutes of Google searching? I'm think you probably don't even know how many ships sape has today. I am confident in 3 mines you can find all the FPSO that YINSON has, where it is deployed, and it's names. If I give you 10 mines you could probably find out all their contracts, margins and irr quite easily ( hint: its in their latest company presentation in the website)
>>>>>
Thats why Gkent...with all the complicated contract uncertainty is not a business easy to understand loh...!!

The only thing you can say is ok you are right, we can only look to October 2020 when the testing and commissioning is fully done and the death Star is fully operational. Only then do you have real actual results.

My bet on PCHEM is based on the same reasoning. However, if PIC explodes or doesn't work out, I will still have 25% earnings from other plants elsewhere. If the IPP for some reason doesn't work out, where is the margin of safety for JAKS?

This is arguing for the sake of arguing. I have 10 year sales record, earnings growth record, historical record, revenue and earnings figures. My prediction and management guidance is within an expected band. You have zero actual results from hai duong plant. Your only comparison is with another plant somewhere else, done and managed by another party, using a different PPA agreement. How to predict?

>>>>>>>
Can you tell me how much QL will made from selling chicken this year? It is already operational? You dont know the revenue budget details? So you are guesstimating? I see.

Obviously easier than understanding sapura businesss.

>>>>>>

stockraider Bullshit loh...Gkent business easy to understand meh ???

OK I lose, so how much do I owe you now for losing? Can I pay end of the month?

FYI. My investment in QL is based on 10 years of quarterly earnings follow up i.e, every quarter since 2009 I top up whenever the results are good (no losses and results good for 40 straight quarters). IT is based on real results. That is how I find peace in QL. For the convenience store I paid for the maxincome sdn bhd financial report every year from SSM to see how it is doing (yes I pay money for the annual report RM75 from SSM), so I know exactly how it is doing every year before I put more money into QL.

Can you tell me how much JAKS made from power plant this year ? Not yet operational? You dont know the PPA details? So you are guesstimating? I see. what about the last 5 years quarterly report? How did the earnings and revenue grow? Why did Andy not allow KYY a substantial shareholder with skin in the game (more than andy) to join the board? Is there something to hide? No?

OK then. Your idea of nonexistent operational variables are ALL based on guesstimates, not realized values. Without any realilzed returns on profits , it is very clear who is the one who is a business owner and who is the one who is speculating on share probabilities.

If you say the share price going up from 50 cents to 80 cents is not a speculative rise then I dont know why you bother even reading financial reports.

>>>>>>>

i3Value Philip very clear is not business owner. With your mindset, you cannot do business. All things must fixed and no unknown for you to be confident.

I give up, this little girl after I refuted his engineering credentials and his ex-investment banker status he now drops in quality of investing pieces and goes into insults, childish remarks and totally uncalled for remarks. Just because I dont agree and don't invest in trading stocks like JAKS.

OK LA, U WIN I CON U. LETS ALL INVEST IN JAKS. IT IS THE BEST STOCK FOR 2019, WOW WOW WOW UP FROM 0.5 TO 0,9!!

MONEY COME MONEY COME TIME TO COUNT SOME MONEY!
>>>>>>>


Icon8888 Correct. Little girl is a very good cook. Give her an egg, a piece of garlic and cinnamon stick, she can come up with a feast for 100 people

(Give her any stock , she can write a 10 page essay about its prospect. Whether correct or not doesn't matter to her. Very judgmental)

It is why I invest in companies that are easy to understand and is idiot proof... because one day an idiot may be in charge of the company. Notice how I dont buy into fintech, biotech, internet, etc etc one client companies. It's just to difficult to predict how they will do in the long run.

I dont know about Johan, but I have have working relationships with GKENT since 1995, when they did the selangor WTP and STP projects. Company culture and business moat still there.

I dont trust the CEO, I trust the business. GKENT has never lost money, is net cash, doesn't need to do warrants and RI (without affecting shareholder value), gives out 6% dividends a year, and has a great business model (name me another water meter manufacturer in malaysia, or a local railway specialist, water treatment specialist and hospital contractor).

Pipe maker turned failed developer turned IPP JV.

If you make money, I salute you, but for all the confidence, who here put 90% of their networth into the "sure thing" that is JAKS?

Even baby girl Icon8888 who was so confident only put in 5% networth into JAKS at 0.5, and another 5% at 0.7.

even qqq3 is only putting in his trading profits.

How many people have conviction and did enough research into this "sure thing" to put large sums of money into JAKS? Only KYY I assume.

>>>>>>

how come you can trust CEO of Johan....He run the company to the ground for 30 years already. 10 sen now, and golf buddy of Najib.

Appreciate the useful information. anything else constructive to add?

>>>>>

i3Value Philip, lets do a simple exercise. Are you right hander? If yes, hold your right fist, point your index finger to front. Now count how many fingers on your right hand pointing to yourself.

Power generation of 1200 MW is fixed, it is a take or pay option in the PPA.
In other words, if at peak generation, per hour generated would be 1200 MWH no. of units. If the generation is less, then this lowers the 25 year profits. Obviously a power plant would not run at that maximum efficiency, yearly maintenance downtime is usually around 5% of plant efficiency (historically). and there is also a capacity factor as year pass by where the power plant will drop in efficiency (generation will usually estimate at 1-2% drop in generation capability every year). Question is if the petrol station owner is selling you a new station saying you can make 250K of profits every year and get back your break even costs in 8 years IRR12% (say you invested 2 million in the petrol station), how confident would you be?

Again, I am not saying the figures are wrong, but looking at steven's PPA figures I am more confused. I do not like it when inputs and outputs dont make sense.

QS is known.

>>>>>
Say you need to make a fixed sum of 100k yearly to cover your investment, if the QS is not known, how to be make constant sum of (PS) ? PS here is equivalent to Capacity Payment.

Little girl has said her piece. Now time to let icon8888 insult anyone who doesn't agree with his bullish stance. those who can't win arguments, start by insults and calling others who have differing opinion stupid and idiots and " I am a ex-investment banker, so I know more than you" and " I am an ex engineer turned banker, so whatever I say is right!". Address salient points, and I will respect you more.

Right now, my rispecta for this little girl icon8888 is below zero.

>>>>>

Icon8888 She is a little girl that needs to win every argument

Let him win

Sorry, her

sausages and frankfurter comparing is illegal by brunei law. death by stoning. I3Investor is trying to save us from death penalty.

Stockraider the lame loser, he thinks anyone cares what he thinks? Did you drink too much talamt XO at 0.055 and now need to vomit?

It's ok, I dont have any bones in this stock at any rate. What I try to do is to share with new investors who only look at profit profit profit to also learn how to weigh the risks in an investment. Just because shares are going up doesn't mean it is a riskless investment.

OK, I am a big li- er,

I will keep my future comments to myself.

Good luck to all future endeavors, may your trading activities be fruitful!

AS already STATED by your kind self, the coal costs are pass through. The fixed costs are for ancillary and O&M and replacement costs. The difference is is their profit margin. DK66 you are brilliant and very sharp indeed. Here is my 5 cents.

If you take the example of a gas station, where the prices of Ron97 and diesel are already fixed nationawide, what is your rationale of calculating your fixed costs? Its simple algrebra. you take out the pass through costs of the fuel price (fixed by gov), and you calculate the profit margin on the basic difference sold (also fixed by the refiners and gov) minus the expenses in managing and maintaining the said gas station.

No one is asking the gas station guy to absorb the risk of fluctuations in the price of oil and the nationwide set price of oil selling, there is always a control mechanism in the contract.

Finally we hit the nail on the head, the REAL profit margins gained from the long term 25 year building, managing and operating and repair and maintenance of the power plant.

More importantly, how much of that 30% share do you think is going to your pockets as dividends and buyback? and how much of that is going to the other new vietnam related projects raised by CEO for "future" expansion, and to CPEC kickbacks to JAKS directors and insiders?

It calls to mind companies like INSAS and PROTASCO, where you believe there is value in the company (and there IS ALWAYS VALUE), but you as minority shareholder will probably not get a single sen of it.

When a company has an issue in appointing substantial shareholders as directors to monitor and make sure the guidelines and company procedures are met and followed properly for the benefit of ALL shareholders, you need to be careful.

When the CEO appoints his chosen as the directors to sign off on all compensation plans and business strategies, you have to think carefully on accountability.

When the CFO starts selling his shares and options in the company, you need to think about the WHY. Those who have biases will think CFO selling as a stupid thing without wondering and asking... WHY SELL if it is SO DAMN GOOD? Wouldn't he have insider knowledge on a good company?

Adik sarifah: here is a old uncle advise for you, which you can google easily and read up.

Teh Soon Seng
Aokam Perdana

I'm sure you have never invested in the company or been born at that time, but remember this: history never repeats itself, but it sure does rhyme.

>>>>
how can Fixed Per KwH tariff allows for pass through of fuel and variable costs ??

hydropower is far far more expensive than coal fired in terms of capex and initial startup costs. It involves damming and ponding certain areas and produces far less power than coal fired plants. It is also less risk and maintenance required.the MFCB one only produces around 260MW, but is estimated to cost 500 million usd to build( their version involves no dams and is a run of river mekong project) . The rates for hydropower are also far lower than other active energy streams. You can look further to the PPA agreement to know more. (the laos project is estimated payback 5 years and irr 17%. but this info from CEO la. I call bullshit, the usual payback period is around 10 years and IRR is around 12-13%). FYI their PPA agreement is 6.15 cents per KWH.

coal fired plants are cheaper to build (estimated 1.87 billion usd to build 1200MW double cycle coal plant) but have more expenses, maintenance and replacement cycles compared to other energy reactors (unless kids here think 25 years no need to change and order spare parts?), the payback period is around 8 years (more like 11 ), and the contract is also for 25 years. (irr 12% according to jaks CEO, if you can believe it). historically, combined cycle have a real rate of below 10% IRR after all the costs of BOT are involved. But who knows? China can do miracles.

FYI I speak of this from a background as an electrical IR doing many biomass projects and heat exchange contracts (as well as M&E design works). so you can choose to believe or not believe what I say.

I won't lie to you and say I am a fake engineer or investment banker. And most importantly , their PPA agreement is X.XX cents per KWH (ask me how I know this, I won a drinking match). which is an ok deal in the long run, but definitely not worth the RM6 - RM10 tp a lot of I3 investors are pushing.

3.5 sen. big difference between 35K and 30K dividend for me, can buy extra 4150 shares for the future.

So how to be lowest price bidder and give money to najib? you crazy? impossible gkent and china can do the job properly.

>>>>>>
“However, for this work package, I am pleased to announce that the successful tenderer had quoted the lowest price,” he said.

counting small change takes a lot of time definitely. 1 cent, 2 cent, 1 dollar. KYY just count the zeros and donate the rest. funny busy counting money as if you got a lot. showing off your thousands again. fake investment banker/fake engineer boring la.

>>>>>>>

I small fry nobody old man no time quarrel with all the sifus here

Busy counting money instead

The historical consistency of both companies has proven that dayangs earnings are not consistent and yinson is. Earnings stability play a huge role in share price increase. That and paying growing dividends should also be an important criteria for share quality.

How consistent do you think the topside maintenance works will be in the long term?

Punter don't forget to add in dividends in your calculation.

Winner gets to pick the name for the losers for 1 month. So for the next month you get to enjoy everyone profile photo and pick IloveJayC, JayCBigFrankfurter, etc etc.

Joking.

Mamatede I feel sad you don't think I am big fish.... Just because I bought on margin....

I expected it the moment I bought 1m shares in margin at 1.12, to enjoy 3.5 cent dividend and 20 cent share price increase. I'll probably hold until it reaches rm3 then re-evaluate after quarterly report.

>>>>>>>>>>>
but today price at 1.30 is good tp ,which is not expected to every investors...

Hi ikah ex dividend was last Friday, today is Tuesday already way past the dividend ex date...

Aren't you speculating that there are speculators who are contra players? Maybe they are not speculators but real investors who believe in gkent and are buying for the long term?

In either case I know the basis of your speculative remarks.

I think you are speculating too much.

The real money is not made in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.

Kyy choose DAYANG

Ikah2000, may I know why you are so bearish on Gkent? Any reasoning behind it?

Its funny how choivo puts 32% on his so called portfolio xx% share because he is afraid other people will buy his stock and cause him to unable to buy his share at good prices, however everyone including you and me know it is RCECAP. I estimate his share capital to be below 100k, with the way he carries himself and acts so Huffington post. I highly doubt 32k will cause a blip in the share price of pump and dump.

Ok la give him benefit of the doubt, if his total portfolio is 1m, 320k
is a grand total of 0.05% of entire share cap of rce. Very Jordan Belfort there, I'm impressed if that even makes a blip too.

Let's face it. Jonathanchoiyikit@gmail.com is just another Warren buffet wannabe who thinks anyone cares about his investments. Maybe he should stick to teaching other people how to buy stocks, instead of doing so himself?

>>>>>>>
No, you definitely not pump and dump. Your portfolio so small how pump? And when you dump, got effect? Can move 1 tick?

I highly doubt there is anything to believe or disbelieve, since all you do is plagiarise the other great investors so as to increase your credibility. I liken you to the "great" Mary buffett, whose only call to fame was as the ex-daughter in law of Warren buffett. She got famous not because she was good in investing or has any net worth or running her own fund, but more because she starting writing investing books due to her close proximity to Warren buffett. She wrote everything with the title buffett, even keeping her married surname even though divorced.

Her "books" if you can call it that, are easy to parrot because Warren makes it sound so easy, however it is dastardly hard to practise, as I'm sure you and choivo have started to find out.

Its like teaching someone how to play chess, and playing chess professionally.

You are no grandmaster. Aigoo.

Same goes to choivo, who chooses to insult other writers instead of offering constructive criticism.

Having said that, things may have changed with Sendai, meaning business in the future will be looking up! I just can't forecast it well enough long term to invest in it.

I don't like construction companies which undertakes major projects without understanding first if it's clients can pay, and if they are not sure on payment, to get bank guarantees beforehand.

I used to have a business partner where we got into some small renovations business. He would get the projects and I would arrange the workers and supervisors.

In the end I ended it because the partner kept on getting new projects, but forgot to collect money from the completed ones. I had to keep forking out money to complete the renovations which never got paid.

No matter how good the Indian guy is at completing projects under budget etc, if he can't collect payment from his existing projects I don't think the business is worth investing in.

I just noticed this statement from sifu kc chongz. It is slightly inaccurate, when it first listed they only sold 3.3 million shares at 1.50, with the rest via private placements and legacy ownership from taking over sin kwang plastics etc. At IPO launch back in 2003 the total valuation of the company was I believe around 150 million at second board. The valuation today is at 1.7 billion. I believe you discounted the fact that there was many many many warrants being issued to fuel the growth, as well as private placements ( basically another rights issue). Even today there were warrants being exercised. However investors need to understand that warrants are not free ( unless you let it expire worthless). The price paid for the conversion should be a part of the overarching cost of the "baggers".

Now don't get me wrong, I'm sure SKPRES is a good company. It's just interesting in how one judges the concept of "bagger". I missed it myself.

>>>>>>
Posted by kcchongnz > Apr 4, 2019 11:30 AM | Report Abuse

From 10 years ago in 2019, the adjusted share price of SKPR was about 6 sen. After ten years it is RM1.37 now. That is a 23 bagger in just 10 years. If we considered its peak price a year ago at RM2.30+, it is a 37 baggers.

so far net cash, business is growing but the margins are similar to companies doing facility management. The part I dont get is the competitive advantage, landscaping and facility maintenance (and security) is something majority of alibaba political appointees have been doing for decades, simple job with difficulty in fixing a cost so it gives them high margin to give for undertable.

We have tons of those companies here in sabah doing similar thing, like sedafiat (faber mediserve previously), and a lot of those private companies.

The part I don't get is why get listed? I would assume they are very good at what they do, and low cost property(facility) managers. But I can't shake the feeling their contracts are politically based.

I'm still thinking about it, but as of yet I can't name a competitve advantage that they would have over peers. The basic KPI for facilities management is to reduce costs, but that would also mean they cannot charge high fees (which reflects the low net profits). So how to pick a good facilities manager?

Confused :(

>>>>>>
Posted by LaoTzeAhSir > Apr 8, 2019 10:32 AM | Report Abuse

hi Mr. Philip, how's your findings on AWC

haha this sausage competition has given me more scuttlebutt material than my recent blog ever did. Thanks punter.

very much agreed. The power of a good and able management is not to be underestimated. I found out about this the first year i bought QL resources, then later when I bought topglove and still later when I bought Yinson and Public Bank all those years ago.

This is the part where investing stops becoming numbers and charts and figures, and when it becomes an art where business advantage, honesty, reliability and scuttlebutting blends together into a wonderful mix.

I have been investing for almost 20 years now, and still the idea of finding a wonderful business with excellent management excites me.