this is a stock investment forum. if you have a disagreement, instead of just yapping, put in a proper reasoning why you think it is so, show some examples that you have personally come across, and how you would invest based on your past results. if you just keep yapping and talking noise, it is like choivo (worse because he charges rm5K for his non-results based "advise"). no help, no value to the public. put your investment theory in front at least, so we can base the quality of you disagreements in lieu of your PAST INVESTMENT results.

Oh wait, you dont have any.

ergo. argue for arguments sake.

in other words you are a troll. I have a problem with TROLLS.

a more articulate troll than stoneraider perhaps, but a troll nonetheless. exactly like jonathan cho yi kit. at least he posts up his portfolio results so you can recognize if he is a growing troll, or just a trolling troll.

We can compare David's jaks article versus his hengyuan call to evaluate the quality of his information.

You and your musingzebra articles, are just another informercial.

>>>>>>>
someone else disagree, that's it. If one have problem with a person's attitude, that is your problem, not the market's problem.

You like arguing for arguing sake. Same like choivo. Always have always will. Worse though because you don't even have any real results to base your disagreements upon. At least choivo has a portfolio so you can tell he was wrong. You on the other hand, just enjoy yapping. Everyone's investment is bad in your eyes. But what constitutes a good investment, you don't even know. That's what credibility is.

That is why you enjoy arguing for the sake of arguing.
>>>>>

Ricky Yeo Didn't know someone can talk down just because they have credibility. Classical ego.
07/04/2019 6:38 AM

Icon8888 inconsistencies and back talking caught red handed. Same as when he say he is an engineer and can talk MOSFETs and then investment banker talk sukuk and merger specialists. Talk cock alot, but delete messages after.

Some messages he forget to delete, so you can know his real character.

Nothing new to learn here. Moving on.

>>>>>

16591 posts
Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 7, 2019 8:45 AM | Report Abuse

Now you know why you are crowned one of the most argumentative people in i3 ?

I have heard from market... Unverified of course... Lee soon agent is very integrity guy. He even use his full name in i3 investor blog.

>>>>>>
only have one winner in the business world, it is very hard to find the integrity guy.......in reality world!

Dear pjseow,

Choivo needs to be treated differently, logic does not apply to him as he prefers making comments than acting on stocks in which he has followed kyy and most money on.

Therefore he has stock loss bias, meaning if he loss money on JAKS, no matter how much you may make, he already is opinionated, because while you may start from a neutral point of view, he starts from a negative one.

Ah, no wonder you know so little.

You don't need credibility to disagree, but you need credibility when you talk down to others and act as if your investment acumen is far superior to others.

Nyet?

>>>>>>>
I didn't know you need credibility before you can disagree with someone

Fake engineer/ex-investment banker laughing at others, but how much money does he really make?

>>>>>>>>>

So I laugh at you now

I apologize kcchongz. Somehow or another an investment sharing forum has turned yet again into a sausage comparing contest.

But coming back to your share selection, I do think that scgm should have a bigger portion in your portfolio.

Donations for charity is never an expense, because you get back so much more.

In any case, I would like to have even more fun. The losers, icon8888 and qqq3 has to change their profile names to the winners choice for a month.

Use 100k as valuation point, with all dividend reinvested.

In that case ok lo,

Let's start today.

Gkent 1.17 5 April 2019.
Jaks 0.86 5 April 2019.

End date 5 April 2020.

Since no money involved.

Funny how every thread seems to end up a ball comparing challenge. Boring la this icon8888, so childish it's not even funny anymore.

But you need to put your real name and register properly, and put the registration fee down. Then at least I can put a face and name to the so called sukuk specialist/ m&a company professional investment banker formerly known as icon8888.

As a investment banker specialist, I'm sure you have more than rm40k that you would love to be tax deductible right?

Hi little girl/ fake engineer/fake investment banker.

I thought I just asked you to putb your money where your mouth is at longbets.org. its the preferred method by Warren buffet for long term bets.

Are your ready to put minimum 10k USD down? You can't gamble at the website, but winner gets to put the money to the charity of choice by the longbets organisation.

How's your balls? Its tax deductable.


>>>>>
And Superman got tiny balls

qqq3, I'm getting bored of this. If you really on , do it properly 5 years, go to longbets.org and do a proper bet. register and do it nicely.

Last time choivo also scared cos he say no money, you got?

Fyi, I dont do short term trading, I have no idea how a stock is going to do in 3 months, 4 months, 1 year. 3+ years onwards, I have a pretty clear opinion on gkent, with its MRT2 handover date, and LRT3 claim progress.

If you are simply using sentiment and your 70% completion of IPP to do your 1 year analysis, I have no idea how the market will react.

I admit I don't have much skill in trading, never have. Never will.

Investing wise long term, I'm pretty ok.
>>>>>
so Gkent vs Jaks, end of the year....is it on?

Nope. I happen to agree with his reasoning. You might need to put you back of the envelope to the front.

If 1 bottle of beer is RM1, how much is 100 bottles of beer?

If your answer is RM100, then you dont live in the real world.

If you buy in bulk, it will never be rm100, because you will always get a discount on the price of buying in bulk.

If you think NTA 0.77 in a financial report is exactly that same amount in real life, you are in for a very very rude awakening.

Wow! Sounds amazing, I'm sure it must work.

Every type of investing is about finding value. Why pigeonhole. You mean growth investing is not about finding value? Then what have we been doing here all the time?

A drop of exactly 3.5 cents as per ex dividend today. 3% yield not too bad. However what to do now, reinvest? Or buy coffee?

I think I will do both.

Time to average down on topglov

Topglove seems to have a discount month of 15%, especially since it's business has not eroded, and is as string as ever with record growth.

Added gkent at 1.12 march 2019

I'm not discriminating or insulting.I have been in conversation with choi for a some time now, and his replies and comments are very rude but in a weird way. I've already wondered why this was so. I normally don't get offended as much as I do with choivo. Even Stockraider after a while once you understand his modus operandi you know how he responds is very predictable.

Jonathan choi yi kit however I believe it's more akin to Asperger's, which is a high function form of autism. There is no harm in it and no insults given. Michael burry had the same thing.

We must merely tone down our response and how we reply to choivo in the future so we can in a way "speak" in a language that he can understand and be constructive about.

Once you understand why someone acts in a certain way, then it becomes easier to understand them and accept them.

Ah, I realized that may be the case. But that is actually very sad, because my experience with autistic children is the lack of rationalism ( they are usually very much governed by needs and wants) and are very emotional on their actions, although never by their expression.

This explains much. I should be more forgiving of the young child in the future.

Deepest apologies choi yi kit.

Some people need you to post your portfolio online before they will take you seriously.

Icon8888 is one such example.

He however would never post his own portfolio and his investing results publicly.

I deleted it as per icon8888 and i3value request.

I scared to be called throwing my weight around, idiot and stupid. So I'd rather just stay far away. I'm not planning to be a investor anyhow.

>>>>>>>
P/S I can't find Philip's comment as of why JAKS CFO sold his share

My simple terminal value for gkent.
1. Railway business in Malaysia is apparently going to be a 100 billion market, with railways in East Malaysia planning, ecrl, lrt3, KTM double track etc etc. Gkent has won lrt3 11.8 billion, 1b mrt2 etc. It is also currently bidding for Singapore mrt line contract.
2. Hospital and clinic construction under budget 2019 is 10.8 billion, of which gkent has 500 million in putrajaya and Selangor.
3. Gkent has order book around 100 million water treatment plant jobs, which is a 738 million under budget 2019.

The market size is far larger compared to opensys, so the growth possibilities also become far larger.

Of course I note the word possibility, because it is silly to give a fix intrinsic value, as businesses never always work out exactly like how you want it to.

There is a bearish case (choivo) which he doesnt see any value in a company like.
There is a big case which I see in the value.

In the end, arguing doesn't matter because only when the results come in someone will stop commenting.

But the reasons behind the investment should always be of some value.

I try to find the fast small fish in a big ocean, not the big slow fish in the pond.

This is why I use terminal value in terms of business sense. How does one evaluate growth? Its different for every industry, but let me try an example here for opensys:

1. It cannot expand beyond Malaysia.
2. It has 80% of total market in Malaysia.
3. That current market cap including maintenance is 100 million and 10 million net profit.
4. It has not shown any diversification into different organic markets.
Investing is about possibilities, if we use very generous projections, the terminal value will probably arrive at 200 million yearly revenue and 20 million net profits. That is 100% market saturation and relaxed everything into cash recycling machines. The most people will pay for a business like that is 300 million, using general market comps.

If you want to use stockraider hyper imagination and qqq3 exuberance, any number is possible I guess...

>>>>
However, i think the price is good enough, given the coming growth. I expect it to grow a lot in the next 5 years. and then kind of stop.

Choivo, it is not p&c.

mrcb is financial, gkent is technical.

I really wont bother on arguing for the sake of arguing. What would you like me to reply on your other points? Fact is, gkent win the lrt3 job. Revenue is confirmed, work is starting back next month.

So I will say it once. Lim Guan Eng awarded the job to gkent JV because the PH government felt it is the best company to do the revised job. They have the financial capability to do it, and they have the past project reference for a local company that has done it before.

Hi DK66, does it really matter if people listen to you or not or readership goes up or not? Personally I don't really believe in the idea of overselling a stock. If it is really a good stock, the returns from earnings and dividends will be magnificent enough without share price going up, and the long term results will be reflected soon enough. Why hurry the process. If prone don't buy, then don't buy, a good management will themselve reward your loyalty by doing stock buybacks and give out big dividends. Even Warren buffet purposely does not dilute his shareholdings because he prefers to work with long term partners instead of short term traders.

Having said that kudos and work hard! I respect you for not calling anyone who doesn't agree with you an idiot and stupid and other shameful names.

FYI, putting in your real name and portfolio history does play a part in increasing your credibility amongst i3 public. Publicly saying that you are a engineer cum investment banker cum sukuk specialist whilst investing poorly does not reflect well indeed...

If you compare both at the beginning stages, one is doing food industry with export arm, and the other one in ATM industry licensed from OKI that does not allow them to sell to other countries and compete with other OKI franchisers, which company do you think has a bigger chance to grow.

You need to read trade market journals once in your life.

Example:
The estimates for egg market in Malaysia is more than 20 million eggs a day back in 2011, ql estimate selling 2.7 million eggs a day. I have a hard copy of the trade journal I subscribed back then giving me a good idea of my investment terminal value.

I can't find the trade journal copy online, but maybe this will help,

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/choice-some-egg-players

Warren buffet describes terminal value as valuing the long term prospects of a business. I think that is an apt description.

I would advise you to buy and read the trade journals for o&g outlooks and finding costs to understand your sape better. Its only a few hundred a year to get the latest reports.
>>>>>>

Comparing QL Rm 6.96 mktcap rm 11.3b v Opensys rm 0.335 mktcap Rm 100m it is like comparing Goliath v David loh...!!

He had given me the PPA agreement details, and I know the reasons why he sold his position. Do you know why he sold it? Maybe you can ask him during AGM.

I happen to agree by the way.

>>>>>
Philips....when u drink drink with Jaks CFO, tell him Desa thinks he has made a mistake selling Jaks.

In my case terminal value is a term which I find interesting from Howard marks and Peter lynch in their books which crystallized my thinking.

There is no such thing as a business that you should buy and hold further. There is the entry point of the business into a market, the growth of the business in the market, the saturation of the business in the market, and the decline of the business itself. Every company goes through a similar phase.

Basically a life cycle of a business.

Whenever I look into a business, I try to understand what stage of the life cycle the particular business it is in, how big the market is, and how fast it can grow in the industry.

That's why I believe a business like QL can grow into many multiples, because of similar life cycles of business in the industry in breaking open other organic industries and the size of the market itself.

Similarly I know a company like opensys can never be a billion dollar company, simply because it's market size is so miniscule and it's competency has as yet been unable to break into new markets.

Terminal value basically is my estimate for the point of time in which a particular business will hit maximum size within its market share, how fast it will get there, and how big it will get.

Similar to intrinsic value, those change as the story( and time) changes. That's why I don't really see numbers and a few chosen metrics working for stock picking in the long term.

Investing is really more art than science.

You can try to calculate how much ml you need of each colour, how many days need to produce the work, how many different types of brushes etc.

But it doesn't always mean you get a beautiful picture.

The great artists stick to the type of paintings they do best. You know a Renoir the moment you see one.

A more detailed idea is in the blog I put before here.
https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/philip6/192498.jsp


>>>>>>

I have seen you mentioned this terminal value of a business a few times in your post. Can you be kind to educate me on this further?

Thanks in advance.

3iii

This is patently false and not very well thought of. As a maincontrwctor definitely some non essential works will be subcontract out, but management, supervision, project design and engineering, those are done in-house. The technical managers in gkent for hospital design, water treatment plants and other infra works some have been working for 20 over years since I first met them in Sarawak years ago. Maybe you should hop over to their hq and ask to interview some of their senior engineers, they know who Sabah Philip is. One is even a partner in my limited partnership.

Can you specify "widely known"?

Is this the same as your challenge to me about a company that has better prospects long term over 5 years than QL?

Some facts please.
>>>>>>>

And GKENT is widely known in the industry as not being that good in infra works, and they only got this contract due to contacts with rosmah and najib. How else would a water metering company get such fat pdp free management money contracts.

All their works are subcontracted out.

I've already outlined my investment criteria and the story If the confirmed growth of the business ( the confirmed award of 11.8 billion). As I am also involved in the subcon tender negotiations, I have a clearer idea of the new margins being discussed.

As for the "tiny division", I really don't know what we are reading the same company. Its tiny division generates 133 million in revenue a year and 26 million in earnings, which I believe is half the revenuess of RCECAP, at many multiples less implied risk. This is currently 1/3rd of its business, which will include hospitals, water treatment plants and railway tracks.

I also get 6% dividends every year.

But I digress, you probably know much more about the company you have than someone who has worked with its engineering team before. In fact many of its technical team that I worked together with on the Miri water treatment plant, the biggest in East Malaysia at the time, are still with the company today.

But even if I said that the project was open tender, and a good number of the work was done competitively and handed over on time and in good condition, and Penang was very happy with its WTP projects, many would not believe me.

But I guess time will tell on all the investments to see what works and what doesn't.

>>>>>>>

Phillip,

"Gkent competes SEA with its water meters and water treatment plants."

This is an extremely tiny division whose profit contribution is not worth talking about.

I'm not sure what you really see in GKENT beyond the sentiment punt to be honest. Do enlighten me.

In defensive investing it's probably not so important. But one of my main criteria in understanding growth investing in the first principle of understanding terminal value of a business.

Almost every single case of ten, twenty and thirty bagger in bursa stocks are of companies that can compete in the international market. So far I have yet to find a long term successful 10-20 bagger growing investment that only restricts itself to local markets.

I'm sure there are many ways of investing. But it depends on your risk appetite and your definition of the word successful.

The point I was trying to make was to find companies in Malaysia that has the capability to compete overseas. The are many companies in Malaysia selling at fair prices that do so:

YINSON competes internationally with its FPSO business.
Gkent competes SEA with its water meters and water treatment plants.
PCHEM competes internationally with its petrochemicals and aromatics.
TOPGLOV is 25% of the world glove market.
QL exports directly to Japan and Australia.

There are some others which I follow which are along the way.

Being able to compete on the international stage brings meaning to the word long term investing, at least for me.

Qqq3 favourite manufacturer VITROX is one of them ( at least until the tax incentives run out). If ever vitrox is able to compete fairly internationally without tax incentives, I'll be one of the first to add to my portfolio.

>>>>>>>
If you are the one building the parts for Dyson, you won't ever be able to catch up and overtake Dyson.

V.S. or SKP Resources?

>>>>>>>>

You are most likely right, as I'm sure you have far more coverage on these manufacturing stocks in the first place.

But the reason the big share price drop in the first place is because these manufacturers have majority of their orders under so few clients.

The revenue drop was due to happen.

It is something that has a VERY high probability of happening, and it just decided to come back and roost one day. The problem now is what those companies are doing to combat the shortfall.

Will VS do better in the long run? Will skpres? I believe the ones with more capital, more forward thinking management, more talented staff will do well in the long term.

I don't know who will succeed, but I do know that both VS and SKPRES has no business advantage that would allow them to compete internationally.

If you are the one building the parts for Dyson, you won't ever be able to catch up and overtake Dyson.

If we skip talking about my old successes, I prefer a concentrated investment portfolio.

My real investments for 2019,

1. Gkent ( rm1.12 march 2019).
2. PCHEM ( rm8.15 Feb 2019).
3. STNE: NASDAQ (usd19 Jan 2019).

I don't really know how to do defensive investing, as I believe defensive investing should be compared with fixed deposit ( which in this case I believe the comparison be made versus ASB which average 8% historically). With a guaranteed capital protection.

The higher risk from bursa stocks ( over the same period)tells me I should be averaging at least 12% returns yearly to be worth being an active investor.

Hopefully I can do well with my new 3 investments be the end of the year.

I remember the first article I read from kcchongz long long time ago, which I did not really agree with but I thought was interesting.

Understanding beta.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/kcchongnz/44336.jsp

For me, I believe understanding the concept of risk is of the utmost importance, especially investing in bursa.

Everyone who makes money thinks they are godly and great. They only know that the price is going up and things are doing well. Those like me who have been in the market for more than 20 years know that investing is about betting on probabilities.

Sometimes thing with low chance of happening happen. Just because something hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't happen at all.

Young investors like heavenly punter have yet to go through massive depression and shares that go down even when all the stars align. I personally have seen many cases where stocks that have no business of going up ( like hengyuan) can have crazy bull runs far beyond its historical earnings just because of market activity.

It humbles investors who think they know everything about PE, pB, ROE etc and skip looking at the overall picture, the business sense of it all.

The is a VERY fine line between defensive stocks (kcchongz), inactivity ( tan teng boo) and aggressive trading (kyy).

All I can advise is:

1. DISCIPLINE.
2. KNOWLEDGE.
3. PATIENCE.
4. CONVICTION.

Know your own investing, if you make tons of money then you are right. Everything else is a waste of time.

Skpres is another company that has majority of its revenue from 1 customer, Dyson. I really don't like that, especially since my wife made me buy that hair dryer for almost 2k. 2K!!!!

Luckily skpres is OEM manufacturing that wonderful detachable vacuum cleaner which I like a lot.

I'd prefer VS, which also has the same clientele. But they have first mover advantage, and have already foreseen the problem and expanded into making their own original design ( that coffee making machine thingy) products and more.

Scgm is actually in a very interesting place. Its an old Johor company that a friend of mine works in, which history has very good margins and pays dividends consistently every quarter. It is very shareholder centric. However with the new smart factory in kulai, they are going through a very tight teething phase where they bit off slightly more than they can chew on the short term but with a return to the 20+ million earnings a year they enjoyed before once they move over to the new plant in kulai after 30th April 2019. Having said that, my good friend didn't seem so confident. So I would expect end of the year before they go full run on its plastic lunch boxes.

In terms of growth, they have more competitors today than before (6 new manufacturers at last count) but with the new plant they should be able to produce far more product at much lower prices in the future and take back market share. SCGM did have first move advantage after all.

I think until our population grows up, there will always be a good market for their products.

Below rm1 is a very good time to go in, as the business profits reduction is temporary occurrence. But why only 10% KC? I would buy more. By end of December, this will definitely got rm1.35 at least.

SAM I have commented before, it's an ok company which does aerospace engineering support.... But also does hard disk parts. This seems to me a slow growing company with some niche but unfortunately in a small industry(aerospace maintenance), so the company needs to diversify into another source of revenue growth. It would have been better if they had gone into designing their own mini jet engines, but hey, what can you expect?

For magnitech, I simply don't like the business model of relying more than 80% of its revenue and earnings from 1 single customer, Nike. The only reason Nike buys their garments from you is because of the exchange rate, you are dirt cheap, your labour efficient and you are subservient.

Any deviation and it is very easy for Nike to just bring it business somewhere else where it is cheaper and more efficient to do business.

I would recommend you to watch the Netflix crowdfunded documentary "True Cost" to see how the garments industry works. And how fast fashion companies like h&m etc etc are taking advantage of 3rd world countries in the quest possible way.

I don't know what gtronics does and I don't even know how to begin estimating the market and it's growth potential or even its moat, if it has any versus the local and Taiwanese and Chinese competitors which seem to be able to do the same thing at any time. So I don't even bother.

FPI prosonic is an interesting company, it has a growing business ( if you start from the great decline of 2014 of 400+ million revenues and 7 million earnings) and ever since the majority shareholder of winstron, a growing dividend. In fact, if you had bought it at rm1, you would be earning 10% dividend yearly. Looking at the huge net cash position of FPI( zero debt?), I think the dividends will be sustainable as the business grows.

The issue now is growth. As it is an ODM and OEM for the cheap speaker knock-offs, it doesn't have it's own brand to build up market reputation. These need time to build up, but the rewards can be very good for revenue growth.

Having said that I don't like the speaker industry. Its a very competitive market where the revenue is high, but margins are squeezed so tight very few companies are profitable.

Even famous brands like Sonos, bang & Olufsen, creative labs, JBL, Harman kardon are all going through a cycle of boom/bust which leaves me out of investing in the speaker market.

If you really want to invest in something small cap that is revolutionary, I would look to investing in creative labs, the little Singapore company that could. It launched a new system X-FI that can play 3D sound that fools your ears, with a regular speaker. This caused its share price to jump from sg1 to sg8 in one year, causing the Singapore exchange to launch an investigation.

Hmmm, I don't appreciate you using my name in your goal for making fun of other people. But if this is really KC chongz stock selection, let me try to give my business sense understanding.

Comfort gloves I think is an attempt to buy into the next best thing that is a small cap with the assumption that small companies will have a chance to run up higher growth than the bigger company. Sadly it doesn't with that way. The most efficient companies are TOPGLOV and HARTA and they can produce at far greater volume and cheaper price and better management. In the future next 5 years you will still enjoy many multiples of growth while comfort earnings will stagnate at the lower 30s. They don't have the size to competeb lower prices. They don't have special product that only they have (nitrile equivalent). And being put on the FDA import list to begin with is a sign of poor management tactics in cutting corners. I'd stick to buying TOPGLOV at rm8+ lows, and HARTA. It has much better growth opportunities.

Oh god. Fintech startups in Singapore like numoni? Bye bye rm120 million...

I accept said apology. Especially since it has allowed me to purchase Gkent at rock bottom prices. If and when it goes up to its previously traded price of rm3.89 before the election, I will be sure to treat the management of Malaysia today a big thank you buffet.