Obviously in the case of RAPID, upon completion, 50% crude will come from ARAMCO with the option of 70%, and 50% from petronas. the refining business I dont really care, but I do know the petrochemical business side 100% will be processed in PIC itself by PCHEM under the new JV.

That will be money in the bank.

Finally a smart boy who looks like me.

Exactly, stockraider listen to jonathan, listed company cannot simply sell some cheap some expensive, there is a standard pricing for everything.

Net profit that high can only come from one place, efficiency of operations compared to competitors.

First ask yourself, utilization of plants, how many %? If you have consistent supply of naphta, no delays in receiving shipment, no need in bidding or auction of supplies, delivery right next door from the refining plant. If you have a wide range of commission network, selling around the world, information will give you visibility on where is the best paying customers.

If you need to fly around the world every day, how much would you save if you lived next to KLIA airport versus living in Cheras.

Faham?

That is how you make monies long term.

Not by speculating.

Not really new, it's mainly for the fpso helang that is already on the way. The contract is basically 8 years as well to operations and maintenance for that fpso. They converted four rainbow, now currently in China ahead of schedule.

It's very impressive. Looking at things they will start this year 4Q to the Malaysian site, ahead of schedule as they expected 2020Y2Q.

Another simple question.

Do you know how much "gas" is pchem buying cheaper for? Is it ethylene? Is it naphta? Or are you thinking lng?

Do you know the prices PCHEM is paying, exactly with a sweeping statement like that?

Just trolling because it's all in there in the annual reports, the financial presentation, the quarterly documentation.

You talk with all capslocks, can you capslocks the price they are paying?

Just FYI before you embarrass yourself further.

I calculated the price pchem pays for their feedstocks. It's around the same price sold in market everywhere. Petronas also need to make money.

The difference is simply the fact that same as in samur, same as in kertih, same as in Johor. The refining process and the pipeline and transportation to the petrochemical plant is so near ( basically same area) that their ancillary costs is far lower than competitors.

Now tell me stockraider, how much does PCHEM pay for it's "cheaper" gas per metric tonne.

Please let us know how you calculate it as cheaper? Or you simply bullshit again? Capslocks again?

I prefer facts over rumors and speculations. Stockraider way of investing I know nothing about. But I do know how to calculate long term profits for PCHEM. And I do know that pic is not a white elephant.

Yeah now you know level 1 thinking versus level 2 thinking. Not rechecking facts. Not looking through annual reports. Not understanding how listed companies businesses works.

Stockraider is sad and funny at the same time.

PCHEM is a listed company. The dividends every year 1 billion if which goes to petronas.

If PCHEM doesn't do well, petronas dividend of course doesn't do well also la.

Funny.

Hi teoct,

Exactly, you have to understand the nature of end products. When you buy your ron95, when the price was 1.50 you buy. When it goes up to 2.15, you buy. When the price goes up to 3.80 tomorrow for ron95, do you think aww shucks, I think I'll just ride my bicycle this month.

No right. You still buy. There is no other option.

That is the pass through of costs.

Whether or not the refinery makes a big profit or not is another question. That all depends on their storage capacity, their ability to refine oil at a cheaper rate than market, and how not well the management runs it's company.

Still cannot answer simple questions.

Why is PCHEM net profit more than 20+% since 2010? While everyone else in below 14%.

If you say good times coming before past years, why pchem profit goes up to 25 % whole company like LCTITAN and others drop to below 10% instead?

Come on. Think and be rich. Napoleon hill teach you to read and compare ALL THE COMPETITORS. WHY OTHERS FLOUNDERING DOWN WHILE PCHEM STABILIZING.

Come one, you need to think for yourself. Don't just shut your brain and say government monopoly bullshit.

PCHEM exports it's products around the world. It's not only jaguh kampung.

Just answer one simple question raider. Why do you think their net profit is that high compared to others?

I promise I won't laugh at you.

YINSON is very smart. They don't hedge on oil prices like Armada and sapura. They only sell on calculated charter rates, meaning when contract is signed the contract pays for the fpso conversation costs and charter rates for 8 years+ optional extension. Guaranteed, calculated straightforward profit.

More importantly in their contract firmly states any cancellation the charterer must pay cancellation fee which is exactly the loan+interest taken for conversion and management of fpso.

So they won't lose money even if charter cancelled.

How did Armada and sapura lose? They got greedy. Their charter and lease are signed differently. They signed based on barrels profit sharing sales agreement. 30% sapura 70% petronas.

So when the price per barrel dropped, sure lose money la. They estimated previous contract at 75-90 USD per barrel to earn money.

When the price per barrel dropped tp 40-60 per barrel, you think sapura and Armada can make money?

Need to read between the lines. Fpso utilization rates, total manpower, planning, backup cash to get more projects.

Why do you think thhe couldn't handle fpso conversion? No money. Why do you think Armada and sapura losing jobs to yinson? No money. If you were a bank, who would you lend money to? International company like YINSON? Or redlining company like Armada and sapura?

Still cannot answer simple question?

Then ask you another simple question.

When rapid gets completed and production full running, how much additional revenue will pchem generate from rapid?

Don't know? Read and find out.

Stop talking through your nose. The more you talk the more bullshit walks.

Stockraider you know nothing about petronas or pchem working, so I suggest you read up first before talking through your nose.

Just answer me one simple question:

Why is pchem net profit 25% compared to all the other competitors around the world. Or just in comparison to LCTITAN.

If you don't know the answer to that, then better you just quietly go play by yourself in speculating in your sapura shares and let the big boys talk.

I probably am holding tight to my YINSON and QL stocks right now. Topglove I'm still very confident. So most likely the rest of my upcoming dividends and income will either go to pchem or STNE, depending on the quarterly report. Although QL might also be additional top up, depending on if the deal they were working on succeeds or not and they announce it next quarter.

Haha if you want fixed deposit, rhb has a new offer of 4.8% return.

But in pchem case, I need to invest in rock solid stocks with good potential growth and have a solid dividend and management plan for my father in law and wife.

Otherwise he ban me from chinese new year and black black face whenever I come again not very nice la.

The days when my heart can take speculating in sapura at 26 cents to 30 cents and carimin stocks with no track record are long gone.

For the last 9 years in my 4 stocks I have never had to cut loss or mortgage my house to do stupid things again.

Thank God. I finally understand what compounded gain means.

Titus wonderful! That is the secret. Never believe any sifus telling you to buy it sell shares. Always check back and do your own factual research on how a company will perform.

And most importantly buy after the QR report. Although in my case this is my first big block sales ( selling public bank and buying into pchem took me a while to do it properly), so I had to do it before the upcoming qr. But rest assured, I will be buying even more if the share price drops, because the market for petrochemicals is huge, and when PIC goes up and running their production costs will be so low they can basically undercut almost everyone in local region to negative profits and STILL MAKE MONEY.

That is what 25% net profit gets you.

It's like that guy who can sell nasi lemak for 0.20 cents and still make money while everyone else has to sell it for 0.50 cents to get 10% profit.

Thats what 27 billion USD and Johor government support gets you. Johor government gave them pamer water and petronas combined power energy production at insanely low costs, then you add aramco and petronas naphta local feedstocks without additional transportation, logistics and double handling third party costs .

I'm impressed.

I really have to apologize to Calvin tan now

I am sorry my friends, general Philip and his family have had a long discussion and family have decided to sell our shares from 5.55 down. Don't worry very small amount only. We wanted to continue support PPHB but after looking at pchem opportunity costs we decided to take profit and go all in to Johor instead of Penang.

With pangerang rapid finishing testing and commissioning this next few months and full production, I anticipate big things in oil and gas sector chemical processing soon.

I apologies for forcing my wife and brother in law to abandon their support so soon ( it was a great journey) but I believe PPHB will definitely continue to do well in the future and making good profits!

Valuation unchanged at 120 million ( conservative), and I will still be there at quay hotel opening.

Good luck and happy chap goh mei!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip6/193465.jsp

Common sense is definitely not so common.

What is the comparison between mbmr and YINSON?

One sell cars in a very tight and competitive market which is growth limited. Do you think perodua cars can succeed outside of Malaysia? Can the sales explode to Indonesia and Philippines and China? Obviously no. So I'm 5-10 years time where do you see mbmr? Try to understand the meaning of the word terminal growth.

YINSON on the other hand is an international fpso company that only recently started a foothold into Malaysian market. With this win and more confidence more fpso jobs will be awarded to them. And they are bidding in Brazil, Africa, Canada, Vietnam and many international countries. It is a company that is not limited by location and more importantly in a growing market that is very hard for new competition to go into due to reputation, competency, licensing and capex requirements.

Most importantly 10-20 years from now the only oil you will find it's in the open sea, as cheap oil in easy to dig areas get lesser and lesser.

Mbmr? Got Mazda bmazauto, got tanchong, got Toyota, got proton, got that 3rd car company mahathir wants to kick off...

How many cars can Malaysian afford to buy? We are already spoiled for choice. 10 years from now what is the future of mbmr?

2.3 billion in o&m awarded by Nippon jx for fpso layang. Announced yesterday! Nice!
What tabung haji can't do, YINSON can with it's multinational group of Nordic sailers and engineers!

How many Malaysian companies can you find where their competence people are white ghosts?

YINSON boleh!

Qqq, you should think of it more in these terms. Companies like LCTITAN have to ship in their feedstocks by 3rdv party bring to the factory from Korea and overseas.

For pchem rapid the feedstocks are produced by next door in an integrated facility with piping and delivery mechanism all ready to ensure maximum efficiency.

Even more impressive is the new isononanol processing. The total sum of parts production is amazing.

Stockraider still doesn't seem to get it. Pchem is a different company altogether from refining. Refining is subject to oil prices for profit or loss. Chemical processing treat oil as feedstocks, it doesn't matter what the cost is because in the end prices for end products are demand based, coat of raw material increase gets passed through to end user.

Most importantly when you look at O&G companies you would try to understand funding costs ie how much it cost for the oil & gas company to dig up that oil.

For petrochemical company you need to understand production costs, ie how much it costs for a company to produce olefins. If the ancillary costs are very low due to production efficiency or economies of scale, then the company definitely has a business advantage aka moat.

How much advantage do you think an integrated plant with 27usd billion capex will save in economies of scale costs?

That's a key metric in understanding all of pchem previous endeavors why they can earn 25% net profit on a highly competitive and volatile market like petrochemical.

Just consider basic items which everyone needs like urea fertilizer. Why is petronas chemical the preferred choice for plantations to buy their urea?

Yes, because it is cheap and effective.

Let them unload, I'll buy even more after the dividend comes out, and when pangerang rapid goes full run and you get 30 billion in revenue every year and 6 billion in earnings?

I'll still be here.

Err, qqq you need to recheck your facts. Pangerang is an integrated complex it does refinery and also petrochemical processing. Look at my top graph. After the crude oil is refined into those diesel and petrol etc. You have balance "waste" of 3.6 mtpa that is can be processed into olefin and derivatives.

Same like LCTITAN. Except the raw materials and feedstocks like naphta, ephelyn etc are much much cheaper.

And with Saudi aramco supplying 50% medium sour crude, the cost of production for pchem in rapid is far far lower than any other competitor in this region.

Recheck the facts and tell me I'm wrong. I think I'm confident, but I could always be wrong.

Rapid could render LCTITAN uncompetitive in the long run.

I remember this story of a guy who found a rainy racetrack and saw that there was only 1 horse on the line. Thinking he has finally found a sure thing, he bet his house and all the money he had on that one horse winning.

When the gun shot and the single horse ran, the guy thought he had won the lottery.

Then suddenly the horse stopped, saw a rabbit and jumped off the track.

Goes to show that things can always get WORSE.

Stockraider you boloh lo, you think only got 1 plant like LCTITAN?

Pchem got 11 processing plants, urea processing samur in Sabah, etanol plant in labuan, kertih, and now coming up the biggest integrated plant in Johor.

You know nothing John Snow! Err I mean stockraider.

You probably also have no clue why pchem is doing 25% net profit whole other competitors are below 10% net profit.

And I really don't do pump and dump like kyy, Calvin tan and those others.

Teareader, be glad I share info, if brk you get news 1 year later.

My holding period is very long, the shortest I've held was public bank which I hold for 7+ years.

You can be rest assured I only choose the best of stocks.

Brainless head talking, petronas is very responsive company run by good management, unlike fgv or your insas whose management refuse to do the best thing for it's shareholders.

Lucky you got sslee ask them to give out 1 cent dividend. Otherwise you got nothing.

And I don't invest in penny stocks like your insas. Volume so low, put one queue suddenly price jump very high. One sell queue everything drop low.

How long to buy rm15 million of stocks? Help push your penny stocks?

No thanks.

I invest for the long term.

Shutdown already done in 2016/2017. Or did you not know?

PHILIP RAIDER SAY INVESTING NEED TO UNDERSTAND RISK. JUST BECAUSE YOU MAKING MONEY DOESN'T MEAN IT IS LOW RISK INVESTMENT.

PPHB LOW RISK HIGH REWARD!

INVEST IN CARIMIN AND O&G STOCKS IS HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD.

WHEN MAKING MONEY EVERYONE ALWAYS SMILING. WHEN LOSING MONEY THEN YOU CAN SEE WHO WAS SWIMMING NAKED IN THE WATER.

GENERAL PHILIP SAY PPHB CAAANTEEEKKK!

Somehow I find the fact that Calvin tan can suddenly smell profit in our&g stocks, suddenly sell 2 houses ( that fast? At a loss?) And have the guts to all in on o&g stock in less than a month to be very very suspicious.

Anyway, I'm at taking calvinT with a grain of salt, what is one more grain?

Good luck Calvin. May you be blessed.

Serba dinamik? Haha in KK they have branch office in tanjung aru plaza. Bad paymaster. I don't like them.

Be fearful when everyone is greedy. Be greedy when everyone is fearful.

It is exactly because everyone is focusing and buying oil & gas counters that the risk is rising. Just because you are making money doesn't mean you are dealing with less risk.

How risky is PPHB? The amount of money you can make by investing here is far more low risk than O&G goreng counters. Low risk medium reward is far more better than high risk high reward.

Later when the tide comes out then you can see who was swimming naked.

Disclosure: My wife and her brother each hold RM100K in shares bought at 0.46.

Slow and steady wins the race.

General Philip say the key is to never lose money!

December 25th, me and my wife will be at the Christmas dinner opening of Quay Hotel. See you there!

Raider Philip say this company should be worth at 200 million fair value (conservative), it should be priced at least at 120-150M. Wait till quarter results out. Be Patient. Be Cool.

PPHB Cannnteeekkkk RAIDER PHILIP SAY SURE WIN!

To be honest, calvin tan has many many good ideas. Too bad he never acts fully on his good ideas.

Actually scrap that. Calvin tan also has many many horrible ideas. Thank Jesus he never acts fully on his bad ideas too.

God is great all the time.

You can't change investors like from skipping investing in small capstocks. The monitoring is loose, the accounting is shoddy and cowboy, and bursa is basically non-existent. If investors like sslee can get fooled by xinquan and bursa does nothing to follow up or protect the quality of it's listed companies in it's bourse, retail investors themselves must see the underlying risk and invest with more margin of safety in the business itself, not the accounting reports.

One of the big faulty prime concepts investors have is in trusting the external accountants filling of events. Or even bursa confirmation of listings.

If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

Although definitely I am telling the majority of i3 investors to please don't invest in QL. Short it if you like Bring it's price down to pe35 or even pe10. But do it when the story changes, when the business starts to lose money. When their investments start failing. When all the chickens and fish start disappearing.

Those are all possible ( but not probable) outcomes.

But if the story has yet to change, why sell?

I'd like to sell all my stocks too. But every time I measure my opportunity costs versus other market stocks, I realize I still end up holding the same ones.

Having said that, I might actually begin to sell my public bank position after 7 years.

I mean chew on this.

In 2008, ql did 1.3 billion in revenue, 80 million in earnings, 350 million in net assets.

In 2013, ql did 2.15 billion in revenue, 130 million in earnings,880 million in net assets.

In 2017, ql did 3 billion in revenue, 200 million in earnings, 1.737 million in net assets.

Today, last quarter it had the best quarter revenue of ALL time with 920 million revenue in ONE quarter. And I estimate it will hit 1 billion in revenue this quarter ( crazy I know).

Why would you punish a company for performing beyond expectations? Is it the worry that a company that keeps going up only has one direction left to go? ( Down?)

When you see that a company has the foresight to acquire family Mart and do regional expansion? No losses, no reduction in revenue. Smart investments within its circle of competence?

You sell it just because it is PE50? Come on. See the context.

How many of you have a share in Berkshire Hathaway A? I do. For all the comments on margin of safety and value investing, I think 90% of the i3 community has never put their trust in Warren buffet, because they think his share is expensive and overpriced.

Those who did get rewarded.

If you sell this company 20 years later I'm sure you get much more than just 11 billion... Or you think land and properties and wisma QL will just amortize into smoke?

Godhand, your math is way wrong.
You are paying 11 bill for a company with 3 billion assets, a share in boilermech, 15000 hectares of palm oil land. A lot of properties that have not been restated in value. Tons of goodwill, biological assets. A well trained team of workers, 2000 employees. A 25 year long term franchise in family Mart. A gateway into international markets like Japan, Australia and China. A monopolistic business which is hard to compete with ( ask layhong). An integrated industries that does Marine, palm oil and poultry which everyone will always need ( unlike a Mercedes Benz), a 20 year history of never losing money. A shariah compliant company with easy access to Islamic funding.

Oh yeah and a company that generate a growing earnings of 200 million a year.

That is what you are paying pe50 for.

You are funny if you want to buy a quality company just for it's earnings.


>>>

godhand u are paying 11bil for company that is making roughly 200mil even if it grow by 10% every year which is considered superb performance. u will only get your return of 11bil 20 years later. U are still not making money after 20 years.

Hi 3ii,

For the information you require, I would have given it but since Ricky and choivo pissed me of previously I will show you how to get it but not for free.

The information can be gotten from maxincome resources sdn bhd final audited accounts.

You can purchase sdn bhd audited report via ssm. You just need to start an account registered with ssm. However you can only get latest financial accounting.

If you want 5 years with you need to register with ccriss. Is pretty expensive, so unless you have a wife who is a bank manager it might be slightly difficult.

For maxincome you only need 3 years worth though. All I can summarize is the capex requirement is lower than originally thought. The maintenance expenses averaged out is very low. And the revenue generation or unit is magnitudes in order compared to 7-11. In fact you don't need a financial report to see that. Just a simple check would tell you 7-11 seems other people's ice cream, other people's food, other people's drinks. Family Mart carries majority is private label items, fresh food and self processed soft serve ice cream. Which would have been earnings returns?

Can you help me here on QL?

1. How much capex for setting up Family Mart?

2. What is the ROI projected for Family Mart?



Of the capex spent last 3 years, how much was spent to grow Family Mart (capex for growth) and how much to maintain preexisting businesses (maintenance capex)?

Choivo,

Why would you pay for a company with zero growth? If earnings grew by 15% every year consistently, you need to look at compounded growth. That is how I buy my companies, I look for management who are able and willing to use retained earnings to do more as a business than I can as an individual. That's why I don't buy REITs.

If your earnings grow 50% per annum COMPOUNDED that would be far more than your 10% earnings yield. I continue to buy and hold QL because I believe in it's power of long term compounding ability. ( Historical 15% average revenue growth, 12% ROE). I believe moving forward at ql size growth will be more of a long gestation of capex followed by growth spurt in revenue and earnings.

I put great store in quality of management and business competitive advantage in my compounded growth probabilities.

Buying into simple, understandable business within my circle of competence gives me clarity.

I give you an example: there is a simple calculated probability( not certainty) where I can give a reasonable estimate ( inflation, palm oil prices, regional replication, new business units into precooked meal etc) where QL does 8 billion yearly revenue and 500 million earnings 10-15 years from now. They have the financial capability, management capacity and overall market industry size to achieve this.

For Time, where do you see this company going 10-15 years from now? What are the challenges, what are the incoming new technologies that will displace, how are it's financial capability, government interference. What is the probable future that time will find 10 years from now? Have you given it a thought in that sense?

Is the business clear enough for you to understand this?

Has the management shown a propensity to act faster and better than it's competitors?

The past gives it an indication, the current intrinsic value gives you an idea. But if you think you can apply DCF to get an accurate value
of returns off the entire lifecycle of time, that would be very dangerous, no?
>>>

If you paid 50 dollars for a company that make 1 dollar every year, you would have. 50 dollars in 50 years, or 3.8 dollars when 50 years worth of future cashflows is discounted back to present value. 92.4% destruction in value, unless there is growth. The only way you get 10% earning yield, is if earnings grow 50% per annum.

The best way i can put it, all investing is about betting on the future.

each company has a series of probable future. Some are more probable than others. But sometimes shit happen. But if it was an improbable future then no choice lo.

Your margin of safety, intrinsic value become useless.

The art is in trying to find a good probable future for your business. The better the management, the more probable it becomes. The easier the business, the more clear your future becomes.

What are the chances a well run company will continue to do well in the future?
Very high.

What are the chances a badly run company will continue to report losses? Very high.

Is it possible to have a turnaround? Yes definitely.

Is it probable? That is why I will never buy companies like jaks and carimin and DAYANG and talam and binapuri and naim. The probability of it happening is singing that is difficult for me to measure. Most investors buy on hope

Yes, they may have a turnaround, and may have big success. But Majority if the time, one or 2 good years does not change the intrinsic culture or quality of a company to perform over the long run.

Haw Liao! Exactly, different stage of expanding got different margin of safety. Different industry different measurements. Each company is different.

That's why when somebody tells me they have 30 stocks in their portfolio I scratch my head.

Either they are very pro or I very stupid.

I spend around 1 hour to digest an annual report and try to guess where the company is going. What the CEO is doing. What the company is achieving or not.

Most " investors" read annual/quarterly report, skip to the middle part for the cash flow, financial statement and revenue profit/loss and think they know the company. Can calculate the intrinsic value Liao.

I read the front part, middle part and back part. And most times I still don't understand the company future.

Disclaimer here, let me be the first to rebut raider by saying in no shape of form so I think QL is remotely similar to Amazon. I am just pointing out the argument that you cannot reduce intrinsic value to just a few formulaic decisions. That is why every year a new guy ask during the brk annual meeting how does Warren and Charlie measure intrinsic value they never give a straight simple answer. It's not because they won't give it to you because they are grumpy old men, it's because you can't simply apply one simple formula to everything. Even DCF is the closest, but that is merely a simple framework for understanding, they don't write and calculate it exactly, is simple more of an estimate than anything else.

Yes the concept of the lemonade stand is great. Intrinsic value is how much you can get out of the entire business throughout is entire lifetime.

Easy. But if you use simple DCF to evaluate a whole company wholesale, would you have bought Berkshire in 1999 during the tech bubble?( Or even knew how many new earnings streams would be introduced?)

Exactly. Using DCF as a true to God formula ( instead of a mental framework) is a wild goose chase.

Any level 1 thinker would have skipped Amazon at all cycles of it's growth and said it was overvalued. Even today many investors would not understand the earnings yield in paying pe150 for Amazon.

But those who practise level 2 thinking know what they are looking for.

I myself am a new investor in thinking deeper on a stock. I may be wrong on my stock choices to hold or buy more. But I find it funny that those who keep telling me to sell my QL like choivo and sslee just because it is currently pe50 are also those who have never bought a single share of QL in it's entire history since 2009.

But second level thinking states how can you measure intrinsic value of a company without putting in measurements of management quality ( think Warren buffet in Berkshire, is PE50 to pay in 1977 too high?) which is the ability to open new earnings streams for the company, The intrinsic value of monopoly ( if you think paying rm150 per kilo for white prompfret had nothing to do with QL and it's ability to export seafood to China is no sign of Monopoly....) How about the intrinsic value of being lowest cost producer in a huge market? ( How else would you value Amazon?)

I definitely agree in NOT paying to much for a company. But those analyst who said paying 80 cents for YINSON was too much? Or paying rm4 for YINSON today is too much? There is a reason why they are analysts, and the rest of us are investors.

Do you think analysts and remisiers act on their own analysis of stocks?

Using pe as simply a conjecture if value as I said is a way of missing out on companies like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google, all of which Warren said are quality companies but he missed, even thought he knew that they write a companies run by amazing management.

One thing you have to realize, Warren admits that he did not buy those companies because they were outside his circle of competence.

But as a millennial, should you avoid buying Amazon? Is it out of your circle of competence?

Warren has said before, if he was younger and Berkshire was smaller he would certainly have bought Amazon.

In an age where the competition is far more fierce due to ready information, one must be smarter in learning what stocks to buy.

You cannot use the same p/e ratio for ALL industries. The acceptable p/e for tech versus say banking is different.

You cannot use the same p/e ratio for all countries. The interest rates and monopolies and inflation rates are different.

Investing is an art, not a science. In mixing different colors, using different feels, using an the techniques at your disposal, you get a beautiful painting. A great painting and a cheap painting may use the same color red, but behind the microscope you see that the beautiful painting had many pigments layered over that turned into the color red.

If you turn investing into a simple science, then missing new groundbreaking companies is assured.

How can you just proxy CARIMIN and DAYANG simply on those metrics. Isn't that just silly and crazy?

That's like saying najib and mahathir are the same kind of leader just because both are Malay, do politics in Malaysia, and have long experience in malaysian politics.

Each company is different, goes on different tangents and each company has different management who make different decisions based on their company goals.

Good luck Calvin. At least now I know what kind of companies you and your buddies invest in.

As someone who lives in East Malaysia and has friends who are contractors of the different branches of the pan Borneo highway, and who has actually lived in Sarawak and have supplied to NAIM and DAYANG before, all I can say is wow. Calvin knows his stuff. Almost an the tenders are being renegotiated in pricing, and all the price are barely profitable for main contractors who don't have good internal teams. Those days of fat profits are long gone.

None of the proper sub-contractors want to work with them anymore, including us. Their payment schedule is horrendous. They are over leveraged and have no money. All dealings are in cash terms only. Cash before start work.

Their management is untrustworthy. The projects they take are beyond their scope of work and skill level. Even their best engineers and managers( people like Mr. Chan who left the mrt project halfway due to mass idiocy) have long gone and left for other MNC where they are paid triple the salary.

Margin of safety? There is no margin of safety when idiots are managing your company. Look at the board of directors. Not a single one is chosen for their skill sets, all are chosen because of the bloodlines or relationship.

Turnaround? Paper magic.

Long term the management is still the same. The company attitude and culture is still the same. The benefits and money politics are long gone.

Good luck.

Good luck sslee. I hope your investing future goes well. And thanks for the well wishes. I monitor my suck very closely, have been for the last 9+ years. I usually wait until the quarterly report to make my judgements instead of what happens in between, but point taken. I really don't think you know how to invest for the long term, but I supposed everyone has to learn and start from somewhere. I hope one day you will read my article and learn to apply more than just one simple metric like nta and p/e into your investment analysis.

Have a great investment bloggers day! Do us old men proud!

Exactly Jon!

That's what confused me about stockraider. He says he looks margin of safety, but goes ahead and promotes horribly risky companies with declining growths.

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Raider bro,

When you talk about investing in general, you sound logical.

But the moment you talk about stocks, hy, evergreen, insas etc. You start to sound a little to very illogical.