If you have CC loan, you should not be in market at all, instead you should focus on paying down you cc loan. Nothing will make you more money in the long term than paying your cc loans now.

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Posted by Jack Khan > Sep 10, 2020 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

freetospeak is different from you all! Can't follow him because he already rich. We small fish still need pay credit card and housing loan one.

Posted by CharlesT > Sep 10, 2020 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

where is Sifu freetospeak? Need yr motivational speech....

When you throw a basketball down the stairs, it will bounce up and down, while gravity brings it all the way down in the end.

Its possible to make money from those bounces, but it takes a truly talented, and lucky trader.

Short term wise, supermax will fall until margin holders are flushed out. However, like Hengyuan at RM14 it will spike up for a short time after before falling to its fair price (in HY case its at RM2.9 today).

Where does this spike come from?

1) Like relationship that ended badly, people always still harbor some hope that the previous relationship can work. And so in stocks, they like to try and make back the money from the stock they lost the money in.

2) Then, there is also the people who missed the initial run up, and now that its down, is trying to make sure they don't miss it. Completely missing the point that the factor resulting it in going up previously no longer exist now.

And when it spikes, they now think, second rally coming, and buy even more. Really go holland then.

If i have to bet i think in 2 days max, it will spike up 10-20%, but how much more it needs to drop till that happens, im not sure.

Good luck.

Sslee,

I have a whatsapp group to discuss trading or investing in Msia/Global, I think you will be a net gain to the group. I cant find your number.

Can you send me at email at choivocapital@gmail.com with your hp if you want to join?

Thanks.

Sslee,

Sometimes i dont understand Why do you like to make your life so hard sometimes.

@supersaiyan

https://choivocapital.com/2020/05/22/ragret-del-luna-10-pe-glove-companies-supermx-7106/

https://choivocapital.com/2020/03/28/lessons-from-golconda-a-reflection-on-moving-forward/

I wrote about supermax before the super run up in May and the virus in April.

My long term fair value of supermax is maybe at RM2.

Good luck, unlikely to touch it in the interim.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-05-story-h1513345898-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_SUPERMAX_7106_The_Greatest_Fool.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-05-story-h1513345898-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_SUPERMAX_7106_The_Greatest_Fool.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-05-story-h1513345898-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_SUPERMAX_7106_The_Greatest_Fool.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-05-story-h1513345898-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_SUPERMAX_7106_The_Greatest_Fool.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-05-story-h1513345898-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_SUPERMAX_7106_The_Greatest_Fool.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-05-story-h1513345898-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_SUPERMAX_7106_The_Greatest_Fool.jsp

Owner also selling shares d,wait what.

https://choivocapital.com/2020/09/05/supermax-7106-the-greatest-fool/

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-05-story-h1513345898-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_SUPERMAX_7106_The_Greatest_Fool.jsp

Interesting

whacked some.

topped up abit.

Quite frankly, i felt like giving up many times.

But i said it would get done and wanted to do a good job. It took me about 1-2 months of parsing and reparsing the numbers, And about 1 month to properly understand the flow of the number and corporate history for each major subsidiary. To be fair i procrastinated quite abit and had work stuff to attend to.

And to finish it off, a 48 hour writing and editing marathon this weekend haha.


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patrick8 A very detailed history of AA's tortuous accounts. Wonder what gives you the energy and motivation on this rather long article. A love of numbers, I guess. Thanks.
30/08/2020 11:45 PM

Supesaiyan,

you basically summarized in those few para's what i took 10k words to say.Haha.

Except i would disagree on 5. I think most people cannot, its just that often the people who climb to the top have a numbers background, therefore giving rise to this particular steretype.

Haha, as you can see from my post, im one myself.

but i get where you're coming from. I think a often fail in thinking exponentially when it comes to business. Too much focus on the past and not enough on the future.

Sslee,

That was really disappointing.

Low yield environment, let's go buy more bonds.

Smack head.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-08-30-story-h1512605220-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Airasia_Group_Berhad_5099_The_RM6_Billion_Baggage_Fee.jsp

https://choivocapital.com/2020/08/30/airasia-group-berhad-5099-the-rm6-billion-baggage-fee/

hoho my price coming liao

Dont have the data unfortunately.


oranger @Choivo
Do you know what proportion of their profits were from jet fuel sales and refining? Can't seem to find this info anywhere, maybe i missed out somewhere.. Thanks.
26/08/2020 5:41 PM

Lol, QR should be bad lah. Petdag revenue for Q2 drop 60%.

Should be a loss still. However, i think the worst is behind them, in terms of both retarded EURO 5 capex etc, and the virus.

Traffic numbers are back up to 95% of 2019, second hand car sales have shot up as people dont want to take public transport due to covid etc.

One thing that should be quite bad is that jet fuel sales and refining should have drop like a rock. This is one of the cherries in Petronm earnings before this.

Waiting for my RM5.5 to buy.

Pretty good result.

I think normalized earnings for them is about 280m a year, growing at about 10-15% per annum.

Its cashflow you need to think about, not P/L.

Sure lose money for at least 5 years one.

Either way for me, my thoughts in the article still stands.

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abang_misai Interest expenses Rm40mil per quarter! This means Wcehb paying Rm120mil interest per year. This is expected to be so at least tot the next 5 years. Koyak lah like that.
21/08/2020 1:36 PM

2014 vs 2019 Toll industry and expected traffic is very very different.



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paperplane infra is a longterm play always. Need a lot of patient. but you compensated with longterm stable cashflows. IJM is not stupid, likewise for MAGNUM boss and MAMEE boss.

Investors always wanna quick profits, like all gloves. 100% return few months......mentality of investors vs bizmen. Tell me is bizmen richer or retail investors? you know the answer
15/07/2020 8:14 AM

Q1 800k profit. Q2? 300k? Hohoho

I like this company, but 70sen is abit too much for me.

thanks sslee.

Do note, their refinery supply mainly to themselves. They don't sell the fuel to third party, so the impact from low refining margins is relatively contained.

In addition, when it is not economical to refine, they usually ramp up the imports. So there is this.

Or close to that

There are alot of factors to help, higher inventory value, forex savings, recovery of fuel consumption to a large extent. Most people are driving now vs taking public transport.

But i dunno, all i know long term wise, people will be driving more, and that Petronm is the player with the lowest cost in this regulated industry.

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sheldon Breakeven? Meaning profit = 0?
04/08/2020 9:37 AM

i think it should breakeven q2.

I think if i were back in 2015, given the traffic data then, it would be a pretty good deal, one of the best in Msia.

But looking at the data now, i would stay far away. Most people moving to motorcycles is a huge factor, as well as the lower toll rates for NSE.

Hmm fair point.

However, my point on the initial revenue still stands.

I got the data from a friend working in PLUS. The exact numbers for the revenue and traffic. As well as the historical 5-10 years traffic numbers, latest traffic reports etc.

You may feel differently. In any event, its not all horrible as WCE has the prop dev etc.

https://choivocapital.com/2019/06/09/a-look-at-opensys-m-berhad-klse-opensys-0040/

Still relevant i think.

I must let you guys know, "timing" is my biggest talent. Haha.

In any event, good luck.

Look at malaysia, do you think development will actually reach those areas?

Just look at even the US or the UK, their rural areas are still rural.

However for Malaysia, we decided to play it hard mode and throw in brain drain etc.

In any event, its a 50 year projection. Good luck.

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abang_misai That's why you can get it at 0.25. By the time it is surrounded by building, it will be at 2.50.

Im not too worried on how the numbers will look like Q2.

What im wondering is, will there is a fundamental change in even local travelling habits?

Will people just decide to drive far far less for a long time to come in the future?

I think travelling habits may be impacted in the next 1-2 years, but over the long term, we are very social creatures, we will want to meet friends and family face to face.

And i think cars/petrol combusting vehicles will still be the main mode of transport, at least in malaysia.

Its also safer than trains virus wise.

Posted by Hisham Kasim > May 26, 2020 7:21 AM | Report Abuse

Kapar to Assam Jawa (Latar Highway) plan completed Feb 2022
https://www.youtube.com/post/UgwoIOcONZYKQZW74od4AaABCQ?app=desktop

====

I feel scared if i see the highway surrounded by trees and not buildings.

I checked with them on the project facilitation fees. They answered as what was given in the prospectus aetc.

Peace99, every quarter few hundred mil worth of new bus terminal projects?

Patience my young padawan.

無爲

https://choivocapital.com/2020/05/25/why-highways-are-a-gruesome-industry-wce-holdings-berhad-3565/

Fair point, i do track my portfolio in KLSE and NYSE.

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Philip ( buy what you understand) Why would I do so? Honestly this is something that you should be tracking and monitoring yourself directly with your own results. As I believe none of these are stocks that you really hold, since you have sold everything and went to NYSE.

So the point is moot.
21/04/2020 3:27 PM

This director is smart.

Phillip,

I'm not sure if you're aware. But a high NPL etc will naturally flow to the PL, and the ROA. This is a sieve.

I don't usually do a NPL analysis unless i am doing an in depth study as the data is much harder to extract.

Feel free to do the same if you want.


No further comments on the commercial loans.

Non Privately held banks usually do alot of commercial loans because by doing so, they get to bolster their commercial current accounts and investment banking business. When it comes to commercial loans, if you get your money back its a good thing already.

Blame it on stupid incentives.

This means, for banks like Deutsche, DBS, Maybank, CIMB etc, i would always expect one extremely big surprise now and then.

This means they are usually not a good investment, unless its at the bottom of a crisis, or post a big fat impairment that really murders the stock price.

Having said that, one needs to note that, in some banks the rot runs so deep, that even if it survives the recession and you were to purchase it post right issues and near the bottom etc.

It can quite simply continue to die by a thousand cuts, and require constant right issues etc.

Deutsche Bank is the clearest example of this. If you bought the shares at the bottom of the financial crisis. You get a nice pop after, but if you held you would have still lost money today (even if you reverse covid stock losses)

One question your should probably ask is on the advertising etc. I dunno how to get rm2m a month lah, if you go visit the amanjaya terminal.

用手子算够了

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-05-23-story-h1507807751-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Perak_Transit_Berhad_The_Peculiar_RM3_2bil_RM4_8bil_Bus.jsp

Glad it was useful for you.


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probability Good info which i was actually trying hard to figure out earlier. Thanks Jon!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-05-22-story-h1507804028-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_Ragret_Del_Luna_10_PE_Glove_Companies_SUPERMX_7106.jsp