I can't say it better.

====
Philip ( buy what you understand) I have never held fixed deposit in my entire life, as I believe the returns from stocks in Bursa is far too great.

One thing you have to realize is that there is no double taxation of dividends from companies. Meaning when you receive dividends locally, there is no 30% tax on dividends unlike in USA stocks.

This makes it far more useful to hold stocks that fixed deposits.

Even when I loss everything during the 90s, I still believed this was true. I put my money in leveraging on ASB by dealing with my bumi staff and friends and converting it to real stock certificates that I held and taking out yearly dividends and splitting it with them.

In my opinion even with the risk of volatility and fraud, holding stocks in the long run will always be better than commodities.

It's not like holding a barrel of oil or bar of gold will multiply itself for you over time. But choosing a company with excellent management and cash that is able to navigate out of this crisis, we will see wonderful growth and returns in the future.

As for holding cash, holding a portion of it as insurance ( and paying the premium that is devaluation) is ok to take advantage of the market. However being all in cash over the long term is silly. I have lived for many decades, and I have seen huge almost every decade. Noodles used to cost 20 cents, and I remember paying 15 cents for a bottle of cola. Imagine holding cash hoard over 60 years, you would be wiped out.

In the end, all I can say is: buy what you understand.
11/05/2020 9:44 AM

By Size

1) Google
2) FB
3) Stoneco
4) Berkshire
5) Master
6) Visa
7) Aercap
8) Netflix

Got a few co's like Credit Acceptance, Synchrony Financials, Ulta Beauty, Collectors Universe, Discovery, Disney etc that i'm stills studying, but it just seems to much simpler to buy more FB or Goog instead.

===
Flintstones Jon, which US stocks do you hold?
07/05/2020 10:22 AM

Nope, dont have a problem with that.

Any verification is with real human beings. So its fine.

===
blood7 hi Choivo, thanks for writing the article i found it very useful, in fact i am trying to open an account with them now. I have a few questions, in the application the use 'First Name, Last Name' order but our naming system is the opposite. What is the format you submitted in your application? Did you encounter any problem with the identity verification process? Did you encountered any problems with transferring and receiving funds, since our banks in Malaysia and Singapore using 'last Name, first Name' format that will be different from InteractiveBrokers or TradeStation's record?
08/05/2020 2:47 AM

Didnt you buy a few million USD worth of Stonco before this?

Only USD20 fees ah?

Is it TD Ameritrade ah?

IB if you're above 100k, you wont kena the fees.

====
Philip ( buy what you understand) I only bought foreign stocks twice in the past 1 years. So I only paid 20 USD in commissions for 1 years.

Compare that to if I was with interactive brokers. Whether or not I bought stocks, if I did the same thing I would need to pay 120 USD in commissions or capacity payments even if I did not buy stocks at all.

Well phillp,

What do you think of the prospect for LCTITAN's ethane based refineries in US and Indonesia?

it it worth zero?

Really respect Goh Kim Hock,

Every time market crashes, his losses is always one of the least.

Yeah this tax all kena, but i make sure to focus on non div paying co's. most co's in US focus on buybacks anyway.

But hmm i definitely need to raise this in terms of ETF's. For SP500 ETF, you guys would want to buy the one listed in London, not in the US, or you will kena with holding tax.

Also one thing to note, there is 30% estate tax if you die, so make sure your family members know how to sell everything in the event of your passing and withdraw the cash quickly.

===
Alex™ ah jon why u no warn ppl that usa eat 30% div?
03/05/2020 8:46 PM

Yep.

For rights issue, I'm not sure, but as I understand it should give you the option.

Fair point. Very interesting call.

Thanks!

====
Philip ( buy what you understand) Yes I already posted it up at the bottom, regarding their complaints on fraud and fake money because they have not given back any dividends in the last 5 years. I thought it was refuted when management has guaranteed 30% of profit payout as dividends to shareholders. If and when the dividend payout is not given out, then we shall see.

As for market share and sales claims , I believe Nielsen 3rd party and very reliable market reports has already refuted this fact.
29/04/2020 10:53 PM

https://www.gmtresearch.com/en/research/china-feihe-fake-or-fab/

Have you read the GMT short report?

Teoct,

Thanks. Now time for me to dig for a copy of that report haha.

Teoct,

Thanks for Ausnutria call, its looks very interesting. Quick question, whats your thoughts on the Blue Orca Short reports?

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a81b554be42d6b09e19fc09/t/5d54bfbfea0ead000106fd1b/1565835219670/Blue+Orca+Short+Ausnutria+Dairy+Corp+%28HK+1717%29.pdf

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5a81b554be42d6b09e19fc09/t/5d59f1cab04c87000103d53c/1566175694543/Blue+Orca+Issues+a+Rebuttal+to+Ausnutria+Dairy+Corp.pdf

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2019/0816/ltn20190816033.pdf

Having studied this company abit, and checked with my friends in baker hughes.

It appears Phillip is right, basically very little competition in Qatar, and the co is ramping up to take advantage of this.

Looks interesting in this case.

QQQ,

Aiyoh, no need jealous of my English. You go watch more TV shows can get it d.

You're making really odd jumps to conclusions though. Saltiness is not related to the level of his english. They are more than fine, exemplary in fact.

But the tone of it, and how Phillip just cannot bear but to whack kc etc for no reason.

I do agree, that most people should probably never use margin, except in those moments like these.

I was operating on very minimal margin most of the time, which is why i could really load up at 50% or more discounts for some of my favorites, and make half my portfolio foreign, while keeping most of my Malaysian shares.

Didnt you talk quite loudly about buying genting oriental etc?

Don't see them here also.

I'm flattered to be honest.

Lets see how things work out. If you'd like, weight them equally. You'd need to account for divs too after all.

Thanks.

You have this odd saltiness to your postings and the things you say. Where its as if unless someone give you a rimjob, he's an idiot.

However, i mostly agree with this piece.

And the thing that pisses me off now is i've been telling people there is no way oil is worth 20 dollars and even if they did if your production cost is 17, you'd do fine.

Been looking to top up my hibiscus substantially the this morning but was hoping for a lower price, overslept in my afternoon nap and this happens lol.

I wonder what is QL's total addressable market ("TAM").

So wonderful until market will value at 50PE.

Phillip must be expecting them to have 99.9% market share in their industry with no competitors in all of them within 2-3 years. I wonder if today got 20% market share or not leh

=====

Google and Facebook ("TAM"), just a high level analysis,

Internet penetration of global population 10 years ago is 25%, today it is 50%.

Digital ad spending share of the total 10 years ago is 30-35% (depending on stats) today it is 50.1%

Facebook and Google's share of the digital ad spend is also around 60-80% depending on category.

I think 10-20 years from now that figure should be above 80-90% d.

And these are only 17PE

=====

QL on the other hand, at 50PE i think Phillip must be predicting,

1) Chareon Pokphand going bankrupt, handing them south east asia surimi, and fish food market.

2) Layhong LTKM MFLOUR CCK etc going bankrupt, giving them monopoly on Malaysia Chicken and Egg Market, and the government to change it so that only QL can do business in this industry on a cost plus 20% contract.

3) United Plantation, GENP, Wilmar, Batu Kawan, KLK, SOP all go bankrupt and allow QL to buy them up at bankruptcy court auction prices, giving them monopoly on palm oil market. And also soybean strains all kena virus attack, become extinct.

4) Family Mart, giving QL license to operate the entire south east asia market, and 7/11, Mynews all go bankrupt giving them monopoly in Malaysia market. Actually, i think he might be expecting Family Mart to give them ex japan & china global exclusive license liao.

In any event, at today's price, im only paying 30% more for goog compared to 3 years ago, an 15% more compared to 2 years ago.

So not all is lost.

Phillip,

On Google and Facebook

Why didnt i buy it 10 years ago? I was 17 then, my allowance used to be RM30 a month, when i worked during school holiday for RM900 for 12 hours a day, 6 days a week. I had to save that up to try and pay for A levels as my family didnt have much money then. Did STPM instead and spend that money on my chartered accountancy papers.

Why didnt i buy it in 2016, when i first started? i procrastinated about opening a foreign account, and i wanted to focus on Malaysian ones first. Stupid decision i know.
======

Too lazy to reply all your comments, but let me touch on the total addressable market (TAM) for google and facebook.

Very simple statistics for me to give you.

Internet penetration of global population 10 years ago is 25%, today it is 50%.

Digital ad spending share of the total 10 years ago is 30-35% (depending on stats) today it is 50.1%

Let me ask you, 10-20 years from now, that percentage will be up or down? The size of the pie as a whole will be up or down? And how much more up or down leh?

=====

If based on those statistics, you think Google and FB got TAM problem, i suggest you look much much deeper into all of your picks.

This one is like kettle calling the snow black.

Lets place a bet, EPS basis, 5 years from now, i think FB and GOOG's will grow much more than QL's.

And these two co's are 17PE vs your 50PE one.

Yeap,

Because the world will shut down forever.

And these companies are heavily in debt and won't be able to survive.

Hibiscus extraction cost for TAPIS is 15 dollars a barrel.

Currently TAPIS is selling at 29 dollar a barrel.

What to do leh?

Phillip,

You're smarter than me.

You know how to pay 50PE for a chicken, egg, fish products, palm oil and 24/7 mart company that make ROE of 12%, and grow earnings at 5% per annum for the last 5 years.

The future you can see with such certainty for this company, i am not good enough to see.

I'm only smart enough to pay 17PE for google, the backbone of the internet, which grew 20% per annum for the last 5 years, and can give you ROE of 35%.

On having a trackable portfolio, well that's a fair point phillip.

If i ever stop running my fund, i'll make mine public.

Or you can just put RM500k with me, and i'll send you a copy of the letter with all my positions.

Posted by vesting > Mar 28, 2020 8:02 AM | Report Abuse

What platform you are using to invest in SG, HK, China and US?

=====

Interactive brokers

Philip,

If you bought my RCE instead of your PCHEM, you would be much better off now.

Did you manage to buy more StoneCo or Pasegmono this round? I tripled my position on both on the very bottom.
====



Well, i do think i write far better than my investment results. And whether this means that i'm a good writer, or just a bad investor, well , i don't know.

Either way, given my current returns, i would take whatever investment advice given by myself with a healthy amount of salt.

In any event, my friends, what you buy or sell this year is very likely to determine your investment return for the next 10-15 years, make it count.

And if i cannot obtain above average returns despite being able to be a position to buy so many good companies at rock bottom prices.

Well, i would likely wind down my fund as outsider investments mature, put 75% of my own money into US, GLOBAL and CHINA index funds, and invest the rest on my own picks.

I still love this process of investing too much. Its just so enjoyable digging into the companies and trying to understand how the world works.

===

I won't be replying here anymore as i just don't want to be caught up in arguing with people or doing zero value activities.

Send me an email if you guys have any questions that you want my personal response to.

YTLP buy the new Tuas Spring combined power generator, is from Hyflux you know, who is currently in bankruptcy court. That is utilities leh.

If the Seraya problem in SG was any worse, or if YTLP did not have other assets to cover up the losses and over payment.

Well, you may instead be looking for comfort with Hyflux equity and bond holders today.

Don't be so sure.

But at this price, and considering the rest, should do ok lah.


=====
Posted by Tedinvestor > Mar 25, 2020 8:55 PM | Report Abuse

Utilities company have steady incomes. You talk without any knowledge. Mentally got problems

Calvin,

Honestly, your conduct the last 1-2 years have been quite disappointing. I remember thinking you were a very nice person back when i met you in Johor, but honestly, the way you've been acting in pushing companies like these, It's not good.

Yeap


===
Icon8888 Can go very very Low if bad debts explode
19/03/2020 9:22 PM

I sold my TIMECOM to pour more into US Markets.

Thank you so much TIMECOM.

The first company i actually properly understood in malaysia, and purchased at a good price.

What a company. I wish i will have the chance to buy you again.

If / When that time comes, i think i would be in a much better place financially. Hopefully.

To an extent, i think this is the only company in BURSA i can say i truly understood.

Thank you.

I'm wondering,

Why do you consider Hartalega to be more expensive than TopGlove?

Well, thanks for doing something like that.

I'm sure for many it will be like water in a dessert.

All the best.

Phillip really change a lot this year.

Before this, i've never heard him use the word "cheap and undervalued".

I no time to start arguing again, so i'll stop here.

Buffet says,

The oil price crash and the corona-virus is a "One-Two" punch for stocks worldwide.

Well punch three just came for Petronas Chemicals.

I wonder if Phillip going to average down again anot.

Technically 10 year economics of the biz now and 1 year ago, still very little change lah. Can buy more shares at cheap price, he must be so happy now.

Deep breath.

Wait 1-2 weeks before i start buying again.

Icon8888,

If you study hyflux and tuaspring, you would notice that the plant is structurally not that suited given current market conditions where gas is so cheap.

but i suppose the economics would be very different if you paid cents on the dollar for the plant.

Not smart enough to answer yet.

Wow.

OTB still in ah, break all the SMA200 300 400 etc liao.

Should be out d i think?

Wellsfargo same valuation as ABMB.

Well, its below your previous top up. Time to buy more.

I think it was overvalued at Rm3.


====
Posted by Flintstones > Mar 12, 2020 7:27 PM | Report Abuse

This is another perpetual value trap. Before you buy muhibbah, ask yourself, how long it has been undervalued? This stock will not become fair value just because you bought it

Do note, the engineering dept, profit was very leng in 2013 and 2014. 2015 and 2016 was ok lah. But 2017,18 and 19 really shit.

Maybe i'm stupid.

But their stake in FAVCO is worth RM330m. And i think FAVCO shares is actually cheap at this price.

Muhibbah Enterprise Value (net of FAVCO's cash and debt) is about RM641.5m

Excluding the FAVCO stake, you are paying RM311.5m for their engineering dept and stake in cambodian airports, which provides RM150m in associate earnings to the company net of tax, and also grows traffic at 1X% per annum.

You're paying 2PE for the airport and engineering/construction dept is free.

Now, construction dept (net of profit from associate and NCI) is usually very low or loss making. 2018 its about RM3m profit, 2017 is about RM23m loss, 2019 is about loss of RM132m. That is average per year loss of RM50m for the last 3 years. (I need to count the long term trend, to include good and bad times, currently only include bad times)

This means now you are paying about 3PE for airport+engineering dept, at Rm100m net earnings.

Now, let's say, you expect the new JV airport with china being constructed nearby to not just take away the growth but also cut their current traffic by 30% (quite drastic assumption). Prorate leng leng because i don't have the numbers, is another RM 50m drop.

So now its 6PE.

Fairly decent price. One thing for sure, i definitely overpaid somewhat for my initial position given these assumptions lah.

Well phillip is now officially very close to all in on PCHEM. Left only 2m in margin line i think.

... thumb sucking is bad.

Unless everything drops another 20%, i think im staying on the sidelines d.

bought a little bit today at 4.5

i just mad, i wanted to buy again today, but it just kept going up zz

@fabian & rain.

Hello, RM1.78.

But only very small position, have not started averaging down.

Pro's: Cheap oil
Cons's: They hedged around 80% of full year use.

Fun times, big derivative loss coming.