I think people in Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns etc also very smart.

You should listen to them as well.

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Posted by qqq3 > Nov 5, 2018 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

When [The Edge Media Group chairman Datuk] Tong [Kooi Ong] came and met me, we talked about many things, one of which was this (FundMyHome.com). I told him he has to prove to the government that it works, I want to see the house and the buyer. He has proven it to Finance Minister [Lim Guan Eng] to the extent that the minister actually mentioned it (P2P) in his Budget 2019,” the premier added.

FundMyHome is the brainchild of Tong, who developed the platform through EdgeProp.
============

me? I think Tong, LGE and Mahathir smarter than i3 forum members.

Crash, is when i can get a 8-10% yield property in prime area, wihout airbnb.

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Posted by godhand > Nov 5, 2018 09:54 AM | Report Abuse

its depends on how u perceive the word 'crash'. do u only call it crash after it reaches its bottom or when it's in the process of sliding down. i recently just bought a house at a 40% discount at kl prime area because its going to get lelong anyway.

Probably right.

However, do note, before 2003, Homeowners in the US had to fork out 30% deposits to begin with. Only after, they cut to 20, 15, then 10%. In addition to all the NINA loans.

Malaysia has always been 10%. In tandem with every asian country that went from developing to developed.

As population density increase, this made people very very rich from property. This ingrained a certain mindset in asians about how buying property will make you rich, and you must buy one.

Average home prices to income in asian countries are usually significantly higher than western countries, if you take out the chinese influence.

Houses in malaysia were very overpriced to begin with. IMHO, any house selling for more than 15-16 times earnings, or 6% yield is considered speculative. Because you are now gambling on either animal spirits or increased population density.

And most houses in malaysia sell for below 6% yield. Population density aint gonna grow every single place.

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Posted by Jay > Nov 5, 2018 09:48 AM | Report Abuse

Property market is not crashing.It's just undergoing a healthy correction right now. But the developers are impatient and just want to keep selling houses that majority cannot afford. What I can't accept is people pretending to be noble but in reality just want to rip off the poor that is financially vulnerable and are not aware of the risks involved

I believe mass public housing is the way to solve property issues for lower income while middle and high income group will be subject to market supply and demand. One day I might write another article to explore how this may work in real life

If the home renter cannot eat the prop after 5 years, they will definitely be the looser.

Chances are, a significant percentage won't be able to, and so the banks will want to dispose a large amount of property at that time.

Question is, can the bank hold the property? This is essentially risk free 5% PA gain from banks, assuming property prices do not fall beyond the 20% paid by the homeowner.

Its very interestingly structured, and achieves what they want. But from a long term perspective not the best.

But it buys some time, for the economy to recover, and the bet is that at the end of 5 years, the economy will have recovered enough for people to pick it up.

Which is the essence of almost all the solutions use to stave off recessions etc. Use debt to boost productivity, with the hope that productivity per dollar will grow and cover the the debt in the end.

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Posted by godhand > Nov 5, 2018 09:44 AM | Report Abuse

unless they have penalty clause which will make more sense. otherwise the home renter is a winner

Its a matter of the government having a problem, and Tong, offering a solution. And since he knew this particular policy of the budget beforehand, he took steps to take advantage of it.

Not mahathir or the govt thinking specifically of ways to reward tong etc, and so came up with this.

Tong being able to benefit from it is likely just a happy conclusion for him. Not they key reason this was done.

However, i don't think its malicious.

Its just the government taking the easy way out. The other way is to actually let the property market crash. Which well, is probably politically untenable and quite painful (however neccesary, its not preferred by democratic governments unless there is absolutely no choice).

Very very good. You've put what i was thinking down in words clearer than i possibly can.

Thanks.

Hahahahhahaha

I hope drop abit, give chance to buy more.

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Posted by cheoky > Nov 5, 2018 12:00 AM | Report Abuse

I guess RM20/RM40 will force people ride on car, perhaps horse cart to travel to outside malaysia. Avoid airasia better. easy decision to make

I damn cute i tell you.

Write long long article about how you should buy warrant during times like this. But i go buy stocks (airasia, petronm and tunepro) instead. Its up, but damn emo.

zzzzzz. Lai lai CGT lai, give me chance again!

Its not monthly.

Don't sell loh, below 90% cannot CA.

Thanks. Too goreng for me though unfortunately.

I don't know the position of penta vs competitors. Although, its looks like one of those industry that is growing fast enough that everyone in it just makes money, regardless of how good you are, (past a certain point).

But the prospect for the next 3 years look pretty good though. It looks like a decent punt.

Investment? At 20PE. I can buy TSMC cheaper.

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Op3rs @jon choivo go read all of yistock's article.
BTW, THX YISTOCK. bought with average of 2.2 holding till now
01/11/2018 19:43

Haha nice.

This one i really no idea how to buy, even at 2.5.

Good luck lah.

If someone can explain to me why this company so good, that will be great.

Bought both.

I prefer airasia. Haha. A good argument can be made for me to only buy airasia. but tunepro is interesting enough to own some.

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Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > Nov 1, 2018 04:27 PM | Report Abuse

nope, i bought AirAsia instead.

Hmm interesitng. Only other companies are cheaper and potentially better haha.

Likely to not be a bad idea though.

At this price. Its very interesting. But i'm not too sure, since they are doing a few things i don't consider optimal. After my convo with the IR.

I'm happy with my 1% size. May add it to 2%.

Most people think the good thing about Tunepro is that its online business modal have a lower lower cost base. This is true, but the thing is, the insurance they are selling online, so are many others.

They said they are doing general insurance too because they believe they can offer lower prices, but i'm not a fan of competition to the bottom in a cost based industry, unless you have the lowest cost structure in the industry. I don't think this is the case.

Insurance such as life, health and savings plan, which if sold online, will cut down cost by a very significant margin, since agents take 15% or so.

But they are not selling this online. Which is a shame. Im fairly certain if they did, their combine ratio for those divs will be less than 100. I can't think of any insurance company selling those online.

Investment wise, i'm ok with it. They dont buy unit trust, but money market funds. I'd prefer if they had a good investor with a strong 10 year track record. But since they don't, i'm happy with their decision to buy MMF and FD. I'm always heartened when my companies stay out fo things they don't understand.

In case Tunepro is reading this, i'm happy to join as an investment analyst or fund manager. And i'm willing to be paid wholly in Tunepro shares that can only be sold 5 years down the line. Skin in game yo. Hahaha

I'll only buy significantly more, if it starts selling the insurance listed above online and go on a marketing blitz. Or fall down alot more.

In the meantime, its cheap enough to buy. Its management is not stupid. Given the price, the probability of a positive outcome is probably pretty good.

Im going to be honest with you guys. I've never been more optimistic. Last time, its so hard to find a good investment. Everything was so expensive. I could only see certain deals in NTA type investments, albeit they were pretty good ones with good earning and decent div. But still, buying earnings is much preferred when investing.

These couple months, even good and some wonderful companies is coming close to below book, some officially went below book a couple weeks ago. I'm just so happy honestly.

These days, i feel so stress free when i buy. The profit is made the momeent a bargain is purchased. I just have to count them later.

Some will be different, or at least the portions will be.

How good an investment is depends on the price and the change in fundamentals.

They change year from year. RCECAP was fantastic in 2017. Now, its not that fantastic, with everything so cheap. Despite its fundamental increasing and price dropping a little.

I'm honestly at a loss to decide. But now that you've said. A 5 year stock pick competition will be interesting.


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Outliar Tbh though, Jon's picks are all long term picks anyway, its unlikely his Stock Pick 2019-2023 would be much different
31/10/2018 22:43

I will participate a minimum of five years.

I need a track record after all. ;)

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Posted by probability > Oct 31, 2018 10:01 PM | Report Abuse

harry dont dare to participate in the competition ma...Jon Choivo has proven himself...

I think by end of year, Jon will be on top spot...the Champion of year 2018!

with that he can officially start his subscription service...

but, he must make sure he never participate again.

to preserve this testimonial.


Posted by PotentialGhost > Oct 31, 2018 09:55 PM | Report Abuse

Only harry is winner , collect money from student

I really hope this is dead cat bounce, so i can buy more. Finally bought a little this morning at 2.39 after my salary come in.

Lai lai. TRAP MEEEEEEEEE

TF, please trap meeeeeee :DDDD

RM0.3 lai. I show you how much of airasia i can buy! Hahaha

For individual company research, i do try if its something i really like.

But these days, everything is so cheap, and obviously good. A quick analysis will do.

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Unlevered Jon, do u go beyond annual reports to obtain the necessary quantitative data? Just curious haha
30/10/2018 19:29

Bought a little.

I cooked with airfryer, not bad.

But i think if fry will aste better.

I thought you vegetarian?

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Posted by moneySIFU > Oct 30, 2018 12:15 PM | Report Abuse

haha, you are right, lazycat.

My wife cooked it with air flyer.

As long as got tariff, can make money i guess.

Hmm the dividend is interesting. There may be some speculation based on the yield which pushes the price up to like 5% div.

But i see the debt go up, despite strong profit. Abit hard to swallow.

But the high div shows that the owners know this biz is rubbish one, so instead of expanding, they keep giving div, which is good.

Really hard to say man. Should continue to be profitable for next year gua.

Ok, good luck.

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Posted by lcwin > Oct 30, 2018 09:40 AM | Report Abuse

Hi Jon yes u r right i didn't mention the time frame to qualify my statement, I am looking a few months down the road. I just say its my feeling on the market risk reward scenerio. Don't worry about my lousy stock market strategy...its been very profitable this 5 year even considering I make a huge loss this year as I cut down my holdings. I still makes more than 10 times my initial capital from 2013.
I take more risk than the usual investors, always looking for stocks that can gain more than double fundementally a year or 2 down the road. I will cut if things turn for the worse. It may sound crazy but this way I won't be wipe out like buying this Lying chicken.

Just because people stupid with money, does not mean we should be too.

Those 2, reserve currency of the world. We are backward orangutan currency.

You know what happen to countries in recession with foreign denominated debt anot?

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Posted by paperplane > Oct 29, 2018 11:19 PM | Report Abuse

Contingency liability count in a debts,if like that,all world is a downgrade to C or D rating. Especially China and USA

Not to be rude, but if people here dont have holding power for at least 3-5 years, they shouldn't even be here. Put it in FD.

People sell for a lot of reasons. Its not my job to find out why.

This is his baby. He fought off QL, and got a JV with NH. Now, things are turning around and starting to get potentially really profitable.

He built up Nutriplus Eggs brand to be easily the number one or two in malaysia. The sheer name.

He's not leaving the co. Like many CEO's he is likely smart with business, not so smart with his finances.

Anyway, if one is unsure, don't buy so much. I'm only keeping a 2% position in layhong, i may add, but no idea, everything is so cheap.

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Posted by InvertInvestment > Oct 30, 2018 12:24 AM | Report Abuse

>Jon Choivo
If you have holding power for the next 3-5 years and the money to average down, sure, go ahead and buy some now. Otherwise, be on the sideline is what he meant I guess. My observation is that if it's really a steal now, MR YAP HOONG CHAI wouldn't be selling warrants so aggressively, or maybe he has some personal financial obligations, that we will never know.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/179836.jsp

Read that.

I have only son now. Probably buy some father and son at some point, if prices stay this low. The Nutriplus brand, and the sold out aisles for the NH Food product tells me, there should be a good outcome.

Having said that, im not that aggressive about this co, because there is so many discount now. So many things i want.

People used to say what you guys are saying about PANAMY now, at LAFARGE.

Look where lafarge at.

For 20 PE.

I can buy TSMC 17PE. I can buy Apple 19PE. I can buy Berkshire 11PE. Bayer 10PE. BrightHouse Financial 5PE. Synchrony financial 9PE.

If you sold your cheap shares for expensive PANAMY shares as everything goes down and gets cheaper.

I'm finding it hard to see a good outcome from actions like this. If you must, hold some cash, not PANAMY shares.

Buy at a pace you're comfortable with.

Don't be the general market who held mostly cash in 2008 bottom, and mostly stocks in 2017 peak.

Moat? What moat? Margin every year drop for the last 5 years. Profit not moving despite revenue growth.

Haier just bought GE Appliances you know. This aint Dyson.

Don't be scared now. You need to be aggressive when things are cheap and conservative when things are expensive.

Ask yourself, 5 years from now, are you going to wish you bought PANAMY, instead of the hundreds of discounts now. Airasia, Tunepro, PetronM, Mahsing, RCECAP, etc etc etc. Too many to list

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Posted by paperplane > Oct 10, 2018 01:46 PM | Report Abuse

this stock really best to hold and buy in such time....


Posted by paperplane > Sep 25, 2018 08:22 AM | Report Abuse

Ya. This is the kind of stock to hold longterm
Got moat

If you have a short time frame, how can any buy not be risky?

If you buy a house yielding 8% today, with a goal to sell in 10 years for a higher price, the risk of loss is low.

If you buy a house yielding 8% today, with a goal to sell next week for a higher price, the risk of loss is damn bloody high, at least 50/50.

With a short time frame, the investment can be like jesus, for example, a house yielding 15%, and still be damn bloody risky. How to guarantee make profit if you die die must sell next week.

In 2008, property yielding 10% can still drop 10% per month for the next 3 month. Even though, it is so leng that you can cover your installment so safely.

Lcwin, i suggest you really think properly all your philosophy, your thought process and what you are. Otherwise, you're going to be the water fish in the market.

Kindly consider putting money in FD or China index while you think. And learn from whatever comes.


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Posted by InvertInvestment > Oct 30, 2018 12:00 AM | Report Abuse

I think both are not wrong, it's just the time frame being looked at are different

Because sentiment bad, so every prediction also bad.

Wait market boom, then every prediction also good.

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Posted by RainT > Oct 29, 2018 11:42 PM | Report Abuse

why some said coming qtr result will be bad ?

any insight ?

Why is market risk reward going forward unfavorable?

Imagine someone buy house at 1m. Another guy buy the same house at 500k.

Who has higher risk of losing money?

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Posted by lcwin > Oct 29, 2018 11:40 PM | Report Abuse

sorry Jon I dont get what u saying, I mean is the market risk reward going foward is unfavourable. We can hold bluechips when the sell down comes everything will be swept down. I no god so I could be wrong but my way is try not to average down. Keep some dough for eventuality.

Do you mind sending and email to meatboneteafriend@gmail.com or look for me on fb.

We can talk further there. Better yet, let me buy you coffee. :)

Or just drop your email here, and ill email you.

What you just said is, the lower the price and my cost.

The worse the risk reward ratio it is for me.

Does this make sense at all?

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Posted by lcwin > Oct 29, 2018 11:32 PM | Report Abuse

hi Billyk i am not looking to buy anything at the moment, the risk reward returns is very unfavourable going foward. Thats y I indirectly asking u guy to sell down earlier. People will be furious like earlier if I say sell so I usually restrain from that. like I said the writing is written on the wall. U sell and move on to better options or wait to re enter at a lower price.
Those with warrants would be wipe out by now and its still overvalue relative to the mother shares.Then again I just a regular fool in this Bursa.
Think about it and take my 2 cents opinion with a bit of salt
kongheifattchoy

Dear Jarklp,

You are right. Life is way way way more competitive, and therefore the goal is to get it below average borrowing cost, and make the investment income.

Are you in the insurance industry? I would love to ask a few questions regarding some queries i still have.

Its only a rough guide after all.

The market has known for some time he will leave. But i think on the official announcement there will a small drop.

I would not be worried about retirement, as i doubt tan sri is the type to just relax in retirement.

I'll start to worry upon his passing, about a year after. Having said that, i hope he lives a long long long long life. Even though i dont own any pbbank and lpi shares. Maybe i should buy some even if its abit expensive.

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newbie8080 Dear Jon Choivo,

There's rumours within the PBB group that Tan Sri The may step down next year from all his current positions.


Any comments on the future of the group of companies?
29/10/2018 14:26

Considering the tabung harapan is almost double the market cap of sumatec, im fairly certain the sheer act of buying 200m worth of sumatec will double the market cap of the company, at minimum

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Alex™ Want double the money? Sailang sumatex.. Haha
29/10/2018 18:20

PBBANK and LPI is known to have one of the worst IT systems in banking and insurance.

But people dont lose money in banking or LPI because it system is bad. They lose money because they have no common sense. The give bad loans or write bad insurance.

The IT systems of LPI and PBBANK is good enough to get the job done. Some banks want to spend millions to automate one small part.

PBBANK etc just say, its ok, just continue.

PBBANK and LPI, or basically Teh Hong Piow, understands the importance of Return on Incremental Capital. They dont just simply do IT system upgrade because backside itchy.

Many banks willing to do IT upgrade like crazy, why? The money is not theirs. Their is no big boss with high skin the gamme.

Berkshire Hathaway is a USD500 billion conglomerate. Their HQ got less than 20 people. WArren buffet does not use excel, he does not have a bloomberg machine.

Ajit Jain turned Berkshire Reinsurance, from zero float in 1985 to USD49 plus billion today. He has less than 30 staff.

When it comes to banking and insurance. Its the people behind it that is aboslutely key, not so much the tools.

LPI can still excel further. As long as Teh Hong Piow is alive, and the culture is absolutely ingrained in the employees. With the future CEO being someone who has signifcant skin in game.

There is still plenty of places to grow. But the stock is really expensive on a quantitative basis.

Also berkshire hathaway is now 11PE. After earnings grew 67% in Q2.

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newbie8080 Dear Jon Choivo ,

Do you think LPI can excel further since you're saying that the company still running on obsolete underwriting system, pen & paper,ect?
Ultimately, using technology brings advantages and cost benefits and failure to innovate will only bring disaster to itself.

What do you think?

might be interesting but. Aih, i dont see it being a great bank.

Yeah license is needed for fund management activities.

Currently, its not really a fund despite me saying so.

For large investors, i just run their account for them. And i don't charge fees. All gain all loss they keep. They just promise to keep all the money in for 3 years, and reinvest all the div.

People who give me money directly to put into fund, is more like loan or IOU, with kickers.

Just to be clear with people here. Not advertising a fund. I repeat, NOT ADVERTISING A FUND. Even if you want give money directly, ill only accept small sums.

Because my goal is to build a 5 year track record with third party certification, before i start a fund.

If cannot build good track record, aiyah, invest my own money can d.

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Posted by qqq3 > Oct 28, 2018 11:09 PM | Report Abuse

choivo....

have u check with SC whether it is permissible for you to advertise here in i3 or not?

to me....u can be charged under the Securities Industry Act......

True.

See how your opportunity cost higher than my investors because you're willing to spend hours studying.

They not willing mah, they rather go focus on career, family, hobbies or other thing mah.

So its either FD, Index, or me loh. Hahaha

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Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 11:06 PM | Report Abuse

Becoming yr investor for 4.5% return pa meh....better invest in myself...my record for past 10 years is much higher than that woh

Haha alright.

meatboneteafriend@gmail.com, can email here to plan logistics.

Or if you know OTB, ask him for my number. We can whatsapp and plan logistics there.

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Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 11:04 PM | Report Abuse

Jon , frankly speaking i dont trust you loh...but still can go out for a drink lah..lets c

Aiyo, then like that be my investor loh!

And make money when i make agreements like this! Hahahaha

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Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 11:03 PM | Report Abuse

Very sneaky biz man.

If compare to yr terms to yr investor leh? Seems quite a big difference woh

Haha, you know where to find me. I hope MNRB goes well for you.

Lets go get coffee, i'll tell you my favorite insurance investment in malaysia, in exchange for advice and critique from old timer like you.

Yeah. After 50% gain, you start to gain a lot more than me.

My base is 15%. 30% of 35% (50-15) is 10.5%. My capital is guaranteed.
Total is 25.5%

Your base is 0%. 70% of 35%(50-15) is 24.5%



Now if it rise 60%.

My base is 15%. 30% of 45% (50-15) is 13.5%. My capital is guaranteed. Total is :28.5%

Your base is 0%. 70% of 35%(50-15) is 31.5%


I'll be nice, transaction cost for buying and selling i eat. Hahaha

Only the investment fund.

I did bet money with them for malaysia elections, trump, brexit, mayweather pacquiao etc. After losing 5 figures, they all stop betting with me d. And invest money instead ahahaha.

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Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

Anyway i kepo a bit..u entered into any agreememt with yr good friends/ investors?

I will show these comments to them.

Because it will be the fund's money (includes their investment) that is used for this arrangement.

If anything, this shows how thorough i am, along with the margin of safety i require for any trade or investment.

If i was my investor, i would be very heartened with this agreement.



You know what ill adjust it for you, above 15%. 30% profit me, 70% profit you.

If it goes up to 50% (which is your conservative estimate), ill make 25.5%, you'll make 24.5%. About an even split.

If it goes up higher than that, which in your mind it should, since 50% gain is a conservative estimate, you will make a lot more than me.

Contact me on fb if you are interested.


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Posted by CharlesT > Oct 28, 2018 10:32 PM | Report Abuse

I hope yr good friends / investors dont come to i3 n see all these...

I can get a lawyer friend to draft up the agreement and get it stamped etc.