Sslee,

That 81 dollar per barrel.

Is selling price. I would suggest you invest in what you know instead of trying to know what you're investing in.

Petronm have higher price per barrel of 85-87 due to them selling their own oil through their retail arm.

Also, it's not audit season yet. Don't think everything that does not happen as per how you expected, is people trying to scam you.

As an ex auditor, I can tell you no one want to cheat your money. The fees are too low, and in this line, if you fuck up, can go chop head and lose license one. If you really fuck up, whole girl also lose license.

Scam? How to scam. You owe bank 1.3bil, your refinery all in msia, your bank accounts all in msia, your partner is shell.

I know this sounds patronising. But I strongly suggest you consider China index. Sure make money over time, sure better than 50% of the market, and no stress.

=====

Posted by Sslee > Nov 28, 2018 11:37 PM | Report Abuse

Dear ks55,
Bursa and SC are still investigate the auditor and board of CSL, Xingquan and Maxwell. But very unfortunate due to the nature of confidentiality they are unable to update me on the progress and ask me to be patient as investigation is a very long process.
As for Hengyuan the plant, assets and bank account are in Malaysia the major owner is mainland Chinese and if there are any fraud it is our minority shareholder duty to held the auditor accountable and bring justices and prosecute whoever involve in fraud.
Thank you

Because your thinking skills got problem mah.

Only when price high, then all the good things you can see, negative things cannot.

When price low, only can see bad thing, cannot see good thing.

You fail completely at thinking in a balanced manner and considering both aspects.

Save yourself. Go take out the money put in China index. I don't want you retire bankrupt.



======
Posted by probability > Nov 29, 2018 01:12 AM | Report Abuse

what does clear thinking to do with 'if hy price shoot to xx'...

thats cute thinking..kiki

If hy shoot back up to 10

The probability will start saying how wonderful of an investment hy is. And start to tell you about imo2020 and the trading division.

Very cute lah you people.

Seriously, go take out money put in fd and china index. You guys don't have the temperament or clear thinking needed for investing or speculating.

Probability's thinking.

From, this plant is worth at least USD4.4bil with very bright future and will make billions.

To

This plant useless. Going to turn into storage facility.

Probability bro, i suggest you take out all your money and put in FD and China index.


=====
Posted by probability > Nov 28, 2018 10:44 PM | Report Abuse

today's report is just tip of the iceberg....

there is a clear and present danger for the plant to be converted to the original plan of Shell......storage facility.

there is a fundamental reason to this.

Posted by probability > Nov 6, 2018 11:21 PM | Report Abuse X

aiyo pang72 the question should be the other way...how the heck is it still sustaining at this level?

must be an illusion caused by a once in a lifetime volcanic eruption that took place recently....last year end

I dunno why my heart so soft go and explain to you guys, and potentially increase my cost price.

its ok, good for karma.

I'll delete my explanation tmr morning.

Here's a hint.

Stockholding loss incurred in "cost of sales"

Derivative gains/loss, is recognized in "Other comprehensive income". despite it being it being used to hedge crack and oil volatility during the normal course of business.

Net those together, what do you get?

And then double the revenue and the net figure, to normalize for normal volume of sales.

What figure do you get?

I'm not going to tell anyone more. Id rather top up at RM1.8 than RM4.


====
Posted by deMusangking > Nov 28, 2018 09:46 PM | Report Abuse

salute u!!!!!

Yeap.

Go study more.

====
Posted by deMusangking > Nov 28, 2018 09:42 PM | Report Abuse

I'm fine with the result.???!!!!!!!!

OMG!

I'm fine with the result. Will buy more.

Bought a small 1.1% position.

Thank god still got the chance.

This is fantastic. I was just too stupid to even go and read it.

Congratulations.

I feel like an idiot. I have no idea how i failed to study hibiscus properly. Especially with research as good as yours around.

This is definitely one of my bigger failures. And i saw it in sept 2016 and just didnt study it properly. I must be stupid really.

I wonder what is the effect of the drop in oil prices for next q tho.

Not bad.

My hope as well. Would be amazing to top up at RM2.

=====
Posted by pang72 > Nov 27, 2018 06:31 PM | Report Abuse

Rm2 is my tp

Great q. Will be happy to buy more.

Yeap, but the one off revenue gain, is not really one off either, because its wholesale and it recurrs each year in an erratic manner.

Having said that, i only keep track on recurring, and data whose growth is firmlly on track.

Last year Q also had Forex and impairment hit.

I was hoping people panic sell due to TM quarter and thinking MSAP will kena time. But it didnt happen.

MSAP is very good for time.


=====
foreverchung @Jon Choivo, as we mentioned last time, I for one, is very satisfied with Time's services. Kudos to the management for this QR.
27/11/2018 18:01

You betting on a technical rebound? Going to take money from mars and venus this time? Haha



====
Posted by hng33 > Nov 27, 2018 05:00 PM | Report Abuse

Also opt to oversubscribe warrant

I would prefer if its RM4. Then i can top up.

Calvin is a friend. He's a sharp bloke. There is a car with solar panels out soon. But unlikely to work commercially,

====
Posted by John_Lee > Nov 27, 2018 04:48 PM | Report Abuse

Wah Jon Choivo so nice entertain calvintaneng. Since you are at it, can you please also entertain AlanNga at Lay Hong. That volcano erupt cannot stop

Calvin.

You need to study energy density and containment first. What you said is literally not feasible economically. Charge capacity is also likely to be very low.

Let me tell you a secret. Guess the total energy generated by all renewable sources. its 1.1% of golobal energy consumption.

YOY consumption of fossil fuels is still going up. Its just that there is an over supply no.w


=====
Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 27, 2018 04:37 PM | Report Abuse

Solar will kill off petrol usage soon

They invested solar powered car by making car roof and front and back bonnet with solar cells

Now car can recharge power every 12 hour daylight

NO need to pump petrol leow.

Crude oil will only be used for petrol chemicals in future

End game for hengyuan

Hengyuan?

Is hang lu

Oh

Hang JohnLu

All better wake up leow!!!

There is a reason why people tend to fixate on 10PE.

I wrote a little on it.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/178099.jsp

The chia brothers do not need to sell stock to fund their lifestyle. They are billionaires, i doubt they spend even 10% of their earnings per year.

They sell because they know its very overpriced. But as its a family business, there is significant sentiment tied to it. So they wont dispose in a significant manner.

An investment is all its future cashflow discounted to present value.

At the current price. QL needs to grow 50% per annum for 10 years, in order to give you 10% earning yield, which is consummerate with the risk being taken when compared to the risk free rate of 4.5%.

Too high a price, and a good company can be a bad investment. Too low a price, and a bad company can be a good investment

At 50 PE. Well TSMC the best semiconductor foundry in the world with huge moat is only 20PE.

Apple is less than 20PE.

Google is 30PE.

Facebook is 18PE.

You telling me QL future is better than these companies?

Lets not be foolish.

====
Posted by 10154899906070843 > Nov 27, 2018 09:34 AM | Report Abuse

I noticed that a lot of investors seem to just look at pe as the all around deciding point of whether to buy a stock. The thing is though not all businesses are the equal. Construction businesses have naturally low pe because their sales are always cyclical and people have a choice not to buy. Banks can afford to have a higher pe because of monopoly and everyone has to use their services. But imagine Titans like Nestle and ql, do you think people will stop using their products? Where else are you going to get surumi and daily consumables from? When you realize companies like this can have neutral days and profitable days but never down days, then you know how safe your money really is when investing in these companies. What is the chance of bankruptcy? Pretty much zero. What is the chance of some profit? Pretty much guaranteed.

Lets pray for donald duck then!

====
Posted by CharlesT > Nov 27, 2018 01:05 PM | Report Abuse

Today every share can drop...thanks to mickey mouse

Its funny how people keep praising my english writing, when i have never considered it an advantage, or flaunted it haha.

No idea, my time not free. And i write for myself about things i want to write about.

A few people who read and write insightful comments is enough for me, so is one, so is none.

====
probability Tyyap use his wine glass and smoking skills to attract his subscribers...

what Jon Choivo have? English literature writing skills kah?
26/11/2018 23:37

Price now up or down is irrelevent. Question is if their analysis is correct?

Will Jaks powerplant make money? Management does not seem willing to show the assumptions or details of the contracts

Have to see, but at this price. Can buy abit, but so many other opportunities around.

=====
Posted by IronShirt > Nov 27, 2018 12:55 PM | Report Abuse

I think Icon888, Hng33 and Ykk also in same ICU,,,,all berak Green, green

Haha, very small position. Only 1.4% of portfolio. At RM4, ill make it 2% ok? Haha

In the 2000 time. Mayoshi son, all his investments die, except for Alibaba. Every single one of his investment.

Is that skill or luck?



====
Posted by probability > Nov 25, 2018 08:57 PM | Report Abuse

question: how to spot another Ali Baba in Chinese market?

feels like this is where a dedicated and united effort from the whole of i3 members will benefit everyone...

Masayoshi Son spotted it early with a million in hand and he became an instant billionaire from this stock alone..

and there is something about Masayoshi which makes him able to spot..and that means a strategy exists..

isnt that worth the effort - to find out?

Wahhh. What is low, really can go lower haha. I topped up at 5.4.

Lai Rm 4, top up again hahaha

How do you mean?

I want some, but its not cheap enough. Around 10PE ill consider haha.


====
moneySIFU Anyway, won't touch this kind of stock, good luck to all.
27/11/2018 12:30

No idea what you mean haha.

Hahahhahahaha

======
Posted by Outliar > Nov 26, 2018 10:20 PM | Report Abuse

Yup, tomorrow at 9.00 - 9.27 price will go up, after that until 11.40 will go down, then go up until 3.17 then stay the same until 4.45, then will sharebuyback up again until closing

Haha, Cest La Vie.

Oh well, Its a small positions but still, i should still reflect on it.

Having said that, i wasn't expecting a revenue drop. And i figured thr higher egg prices should counteract the feed cost etc.

Having said that, the real pull for this business is the NHfood stuff, which tbh, does not offer good value in malaysian markets. Its not cheap.

But export. We'll see i guess.

A good argument can be made for me to sell and buy something else. But I think its cheap enough to just keep the warrants, and potentially buy more if it drops 30-40%.

This year, my decision making improved. But still make unforced errors due to greed or sheer sloppiness. You live you learn.

Haha yeah.

I don't think much explanation is needed. You yourself can observe the demographic and the quality of investors here. Its probably better for them.

I've recently sat down with a friend, whose family owns a brokerage in Malaysia. A quick hint, it has the lowest transaction cost around for cash. And he stated that less than 25% make any money. Those that beat FD, even less.

Even the US market retailers are flowing in bulk to ETF's and Indexes.

China index is also one of the best for the next 10-30 years imho. If you studied a little about human history and why some societies made it, as well as the securities markets there.

====
Fabien Extraordinaire Jon, noticed u kept asking ppl to put money in FD and China index.

what's ur intention, really? lol..
26/11/2018 14:41

5 sen can consider.

There's this concept called margin of safety. You might have heard of it.

But if one does not know how to calculate intrinsic value. One better accepts that he is gambling and acts the part.

Or take money out, and put in FD and China Index.


====
Posted by warren buntut > Nov 25, 2018 09:31 PM | Report Abuse

problem is people don't know to calculate the intrinsic value correctly

It does. Study what happened in 2013-2014.

===
singh1 The observation was made with reference to data from google as follows. I wonder too if the data takes into account all changes that have occurred during the said period.
https://www.google.ca/search?q=rcecap+share+price&rlz=1C1CHWA_enCA...-8
25/11/2018 22:57

Don't get scared during Mega Sale!

Do you know how the name "Black Friday" came to be? Its called black, because on that day, all retail company's sell alot of goods, putting them "in the black" or strong profits.

In finance, Black Monday refers to Monday, October 19, 1987, when stock markets around the world crashed. The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already sustained significant declines.

For me, this means, buy during those days, even if close eye,sure profitable.

====
CharlesT Nowadays in bursa every share can drop...if i say i no scare then i lie
25/11/2018 10:51

If it is an investment. Determine the intrinsic value and where is it relative to the price.

Compare to other opportunities in the market. Buy more or sell it then.

If its a trade. Well, is it still a good one? Don't let a trade gone wrong turn into a mediocre investment.

Good luck.



=====
Posted by RainT > Nov 25, 2018 05:34 PM | Report Abuse

My cost price at rm2.00

When I can recoup back my capital ????

Pain see this ....thinking of cut and stop the bleeding ...don't want see GKENT anymore

I've spent my 80% far ahead of time. Haha

Does not mean i don't read any more. But its more on maintaining the database in brain for KLSE.

If i were to read in bulk again, ill probably start with SGX. Im currently at the letter "C" for it.

But its a more leisurely pace than last time for sure.

===
3iii Jon Choivo

You should be spending 80% of your time reading about companies esp the annual reports.

20% of time spend on refining your philosophy and strategy is adequate.
25/11/2018 18:43

Because if you AirBnB in Ipoh, you can get 10% yield.

===
Posted by ChloeTai > Nov 25, 2018 05:49 PM | Report Abuse

Just wondering why Ipoh houses are still in great demand. Double storey terrace house costing RM470,000 completely sold. Now Taiko Properties are planning to build 2 and a half storey house costing RM560,000. Let them learn a hard lesson. Once US interest rate hit 3%, global recession will hit. Now the needle has yet to pook US yet. Just wait and see when the needle pook them. Now only China got the negative effects.

You are not wrong. This was something i considered very deeply.

However, as you can see in my reasoning above, i think 30-40% margin is conservative enough.

I intend to constantly pare down the borrowings. When market gets hot, i expect the margin loan to be fully paid off and not utilized.



=====
3iii "There is simply no telling how far stocks can fall in a short period. Even if your borrowings are small and your positions aren't immediately threatened by the plunging market, your mind may well become rattled by scary headlines and breathless commentary."

But for a levelheaded investor who's not deep in debt during a market crash, there are "extraordinary opportunities," Buffett added.

In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Buffett suggested that greed was a primary driver of margin debt.

"Borrowing money is a way of trying to get rich a little faster, but there are plenty of good ways to get rich slowly," Buffett said. "And - you can - you can have a lot of fun while you're getting rich as well. My partner, Charlie, says that there's only three ways that a smart person can go broke. He says, 'liquor, ladies, and leverage.'"

Haha CharlesT,

As you can see below, its a joke ;) I'm just going to assume things got lost in translation over the internet, instead of any malicious intent.

Having said that, i must thank you for saving me a couple thousand in JAKS-WR by reminding me its an order form. If not for you, i would have only found out potentially a few hours later or even a day after. Which would mean i was unlikely to have been able to sell it all for a small profit.

Allow me to return the favor by answer the Airasia question seriously.

Airasia is currently 2.41% of the fund. And i'm definitely open to increasing it to 5%-7% of the fund. However, this position increase is only after other positions are increased.

Which i should be able to with the financing in place.

The thing about airasia is, its an incredible business that was a pioneer in certain practices in the airline industry, which makes it currently, the airline with the lowest CASK in the industry, currently at 2.02 US Cents Ex-Fuel. This is compared to 2.34 US Cents Ex-Fuel back in 2014.

Given the standard inflationary pressure of about 4% per annum. This is utterly incredible. The last few years, they have maintained it around there.

What are some of the measures they did to get such low CASK?

The main one is when they pioneered the method of buying hundreds of planes upfront over a long period, enabling them to get in some cases 30-50% discounts and the ability to modify the planes to their own specs. They then leased these planes to their affiliate companies across ASEAN.

They bought the planes so cheap, that they can actually make a profit selling it AAC Aviation in the sale and leaseback. Which is almost reminiscent of the deal Sapura did with Seadrill on the floating rigs. Except in this case, Airasia, like Seadrill is getting the good end of the trade.

The sale makes sense for AAC because interest rates in the US is so low and in the reach for yield, airasia can probably give them an IRR of more than 7-10% on the planes, and still make a profit on the sale due to how cheaply they were bought.

I personally have no preference in regards to them holding the planes or not. But i'm leaning slightly to holding the planes.

The problem now for them is, this method of operation, is copied everywhere now, with many players ordering hundreds of planes upfront as well. So for once, AIRASIA will be having very serious competition from the likes of LION AIR etc.

But at a normalized PE of about 6-7 times earnings, and a big dividend coming up. One would argue it is more than priced into the current price of the company.

========
Nov 12, 2018 12:38 PM | Report Abuse

Sneaky jon doubled position at 2.71.

Price go holland mai go holland loh. We can go visit amsterdam smoke some pot.

Go from holland to africa also can. We can go visit lion and eat lion meat burger.

As long as investment thesis don't change, i can buy till 10% of portfolio. But bolui!

Unker, want sponsor my airasia position boh hahaha

========

CharlesT If i were jon i will buy more airasia....jon is this what u r going to do?
24/11/2018 10:46

CharlesT At one time jon asked me to lend him money so that he can buy more airasia...i scared so i no reply pretending never see his message...

I no scare airasia no up but i scare airasia up but jon never pay me back only
24/11/2018 10:49

I'm no longer an auditor.

But oddly, i think i was much more hardworking back in the day when it came to stocks, rather than now, when i have comparatively more time.

I think its mainly because i've already all the annual reports in KLSE. So now, im more focused on expanding/refining my thinking and finding blind spots. Which comes from reading books that are not annual reports, meeting wiser people and living life a little more.

=====

Flintstones Very impressive Jon Choivo. You can manage your full time auditor job dabbling in the markets everyday?
24/11/2018 10:05

I'm trying really hard to understand this co. But i can't seem to get it.

Why can they get these margins so consistently? I can see some qualitative reasons from how they talk. But i don't understand the product etc.

"What Dreman discovered was that positive announcements result in major price gains for these unfavored companies, while having little impact on the favoured companies. To the contrary, announcements that simply reinforce low expectations for unfavoured companies were found to have minimal impact on their stock price.

This would explain why Sangoma’s stock was treading water for 3 years until the positive record-breaking revenue surprise resulted in a massive price spike. Lastly, Dreman discovered the increased momentum caused by surprises will continue to positively impact the stock for another 4-6 years."


Interesting.

I really have to thank charlest for reminding me its WR.

Almost lost some money. If i didnt sell at 0.055

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/142735.jsp

====

RainT Anybody know what is the difference between TIMECOM and TM ???
23/11/2018 15:31

Listen to calvin.

Its quite overvalued now DUFU.

15PE based on all time record profit. you sure boh.

My name is Koon, i really like Jaks.

Let me lose millions by selling the stock i like, so that i can possibly buy it back at a cheaper price.

And of course, when i sell millions of stock, the price will drop. But when i buy millions of stock, the price of the stock won't go up, allowing me to buy cheap!

This is my logic!

Come on lah unker. Ahaha

=====
Posted by CharlesT > Nov 23, 2018 10:49 AM | Report Abuse

Or maybe I m wrong....maybe Koon is pushing down the price of mother n WR so he can buy cheap leh