1) Take yearly return, first year discount by 4.5%, second year 4.5%^2 etc etc

2) "Less IJM" Less total owner cost

3) "Less IJM" Prorate to per share.

Pretty similar to my thesis, just written out better than i can haha.

Which fund are you with?

Sold at 62 lol. Bought at 40.

===
Posted by qqq3 > Sep 4, 2018 02:05 PM | Report Abuse

buying Parkson? wow, u really want to be value investor....not for me.

I bought parkson mainly for quarter prediction that china will do well, 2 quarters back, and therefore will show profit, and thus shoot up.


======
Alex™ value investing, 40sen for RM1 stuff no?

I'm more to growth investing, Fisher and Lynch type. Investors like to buy stuff with growth.

When Munger tries to persuade Buffett to ditch the cigarbutt habit, it's hard to change him, he still want to punt into those 40sen (berkshire is one of them?). In the end, Munger succeed in persuading Buffett. Large capital dump into value investing method.


But if u're talking about value/growth hybrid, then alex no comment.


Parkson and Bjcorp confirm 100% value investing. No other reason to hoot these stock beyond that.

Thanks fabian, if anyone wants to recommend anything please put it here.

Dear Sslee,

Everyone writing you research have their own motives.

Writers who own the stock, want it to go up.
Writers who short the stock, want it to go down.
Analyst who don't own the stock, want either a reputation of being a very thorough or insightful analyst, or satisfy management who will be paying them to do coverage, or satisfy other motives.

We need to be very clear about incentives, in order to know where others are coming from.


=====

Dear Soujinhou,

I never said quarter predictors are evil etc. Anyway, lets not get into that, neither of us will learn anything from that discussion.

I want to know your thought process on buying AEM then, and why you bought it. In addition, when it went up, did it go up in line with your insight, or a completely different factor?

In addition, what is difference between the decision making behind AEM which went up 1100% and others which did not do well?

How did you ensure that the gains from the ones you do well on, far exceed those you don't?

If without AEM, how would your results be? If it is negative or very mediocre, how do you know its not due to luck, and that you will be able to catch more AEM's.

I'm very curious.

If we do weightage.

The price of stock will not move at all.

Yeah, that was the main thing that felt weird for me.


====
Posted by Ricky Yeo > Sep 3, 2018 07:47 AM | Report Abuse

Kinda confusing that you want to be a trader and at the same time searching for enduring companies.

They will not abolish the tolls, as the government cannot afford it.

They can make all the noise they want, but fact of the matter is, abolish tolls need to pay alot of money, otherwise, you can nationalize it and completely destroy your reputation around the world. Which nobody will do.

If they want to abolish and pay compensation, im ok. Still make money.

Its only a 3-4% Position. I often sound more bullish than my actions for some reason.

I think its pretty decent. And i dont mind holding. That's it really.

===
Posted by RainT > Sep 3, 2018 11:52 AM | Report Abuse

@Jon Choivo
what make you so bullish with WCEBHD? As toll abolishment still uncertain

I have study some of WCEBHD information but could not really understand & find out strong buying point

now as the share price at new low RM0.73 ....So might worth to consider

The only thing i need is more money really. Really want to buy more.

Now, you might ask, why would a fund manager write that up if he believes it is cheap?

Well, it's simple. He is not sure. Or, he has gone all in and cannot buy more. Or, like all managers he has a one or two year perspective and need the share price to go up NOW.

If I was a fund manager paid a salary by cimb say, well, I can almost see myself doing that.

I am fully aware of layhongs weak points, but as I am not sure and it is just a punt for me. I'm more than happy to have someone fry it up for me. Haha.

Nope, chicken King post actually is pretty non quarter predictive.

If he wanted to do one, he would have referenced feed cost etc which have fallen and egg price which has gone up. Wait did he, not sure.

Having said that, his research is fantastic.

I am not the only one who is realize the power of i3 in Malaysian markets.

The article was incredibly professionally written, very very well organised, perfect formatting, with all the key information a trader and investor would want.

There is no way this was done by a first timer, as the account would suggest, or someone who got stuck and wanted to incite sentiment. That one would have been sloppy.

This was not his first piece that was done this way. My bet is that he is either a fund manager, or someone hired by a fund manager to write it out properly.

Don't be a fool. Having said that, I have layhong shares that I bought near the bottom and I may buy more, so I'm not going to mess up a good thing.
======

NoctisShadow This post should be dedicated to ChickenKing as it seems very much directed to him and his recent articles that made a splash on I3. All made sense after your comment about Lay Hong fitting the bill. Don't think it is fair to critique others just because a few of his articles garnered a lot more attention and potentially challenging your popularity here.

How many years have you been investing? How many sectors do you truly understand? Do you understand other methods such as TA enough to repeatedly condemn it? You may write a lot of articles on I3 and even collect fees from several forumers. But the fact you spend so much time on I3 and claim to be an auditor makes me wonder, how much time do you actually have left to hone your skills as an investor? Or maybe blogging is the main skill.

Coming up with multiple articles to condemn other popular bloggers such as KYY to garner more followers on your part might actually back fire.

I have no articles, no rich and successful investing experience, but I am lucky to have a sharp observation, I hope. All the best to your future endeavors, please be fair.
02/09/2018 21:20

I'm not sure what to take away from this to be honest.

Interesting read though.

The new layhong one is a fantastic example. Thought he's not so much a quarter predictor.

My guess is that either a fund manager asked an associate to do, or it's wealth wizard.

This is not the first time that guy has written a goreng ish report.

Its yen, he didn't convert. Somebody going to get scolding by boss d. Hahahahaha.

====
Flintstones 11 trillion sales? Are you sure?
02/09/2018 19:08

This was pretty decent.

I've helped drafted a few of these now and then.

I would not place too much weight on the value given. The net asset valuation tend to be accurate as it is revalued upwards using similar properties etc as comparison.

But for businesses, if they use dcf, I suggest you forget about it. Too many assumptions, even if a high level of care is used to determine the value of the assumptions.

You should not be relying on those tbh, you should have your own figure in mind. Often if you did it right, your figure will be very close to the report figure.

The only difference is the valuer, needs to actually complete all the working workings and references in an organised manner and file them up. Just in case it is checked by third parties.

====

Posted by Sslee > Sep 2, 2018 05:17 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Jon,
Have you finish study TAE independent advisor circular report (available in bursa website)? Mind to share your opinion?
Thank you

Don't hold either Alex haha.

Those stock, you can only hold 1-2%. You are not liquidator.

I think you may be either mocking the philosophy, or you have a completely misguided view of value investing.

Im fine either way, I dont need any competitors haha.

If you think i am mistaken, what is your definition then? And your opinion of the correct perception?



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Posted by value88 > Sep 2, 2018 03:34 PM | Report Abuse

Quoted : "An adventurous investment, is where you are not sure of the value of what you’re buying, and thus do not know whether the price you paid is worth the money or not. However, you have a good feeling about the long term prospects of the company. And at that point in time, you might feel good enough about it to buy a certain amount of it."

If you think when sifus (not me ya) advised you to be more "adventurous" in stock investment, that means asking you to invest in stocks that "you are not sure of the value of what you're buying", you have total mis-conception.
That's all I want to add. If u can't understand, u won't understand.

Hahaha, i can write as if im warren buffet or charles Munger and not credit them you know. Most forumers probably would'nt even know the difference, as most here do not read as deeply.

But it would be unethical, and just pointless ego stroking.

The natural inclination of people is to follow their emotion, instead of doing proper research, we are emotional creatures after all.

I'm sure, that if i want to, i can find a book, that espouses doing things your way, which is to find companies with potentially explosive earnings for the next few quarters. Its also more commonly known as momentum investing.

Reading too much books is the problem, if you fall in love with your idea despite how reality shows otherwise. Communism etc are still being propounded even today by academics and bookworms, who love communism despite stalin, pol pot and mao and countless samples in history, showing how it does now work.

Value investing has been shown logically and statistically to work, over large data samples and long periods of time.

I think its not a matter of me being too in love with my ideas, or too bookish. Although, i do consider the second a compliment.

But the fact that most people do not recognize how luck played such a large part in their results. Or how, they might be uniquely wired as to be able to do it their way, but that chances are most will not be able to.

Find me one thing that i've said that is not grounded in reality or history. Hahahaha


====
Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 2, 2018 04:01 PM | Report Abuse

Baby Jon is intelligent , but too book worm

Everyday warren buffett Charles munger

zzzzzzz

How old are you bro? 24?


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Posted by probability > Sep 2, 2018 03:53 PM | Report Abuse

my personality and thought process barely changed now from what i was at 9 years old...

despite loads and loads of information went in to my head till the age of 24...

Not bad! Haha we should do tetris battle sometime. I used to play semi competitively when i was young, so addictive! But now very very karat d. Hahahaha

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Icon8888 Thanks Jon for the list. Good for people like me who seldom read. Most of my time spent playing Tetris. Hhighest score lately 17,000
02/09/2018 15:46

Datuk Tiah does not intend to take over the company, not yet anyway.

He just triggered the threshold, and considering the price of the stock compared to the RNAV. He was fine with offering a minimum 66.5 sen and just buy up whoever sells him anything.

My capital less than yours, i'm personally fine. i sold mine as there are better and cheaper companies around.

Now if this was different, ie, a mandatory takeover, well, the way to avoid someone paying a stupid price, is to enter companies with big and influential third party shareholders.

For example, tropicana, you think Danny tan dare to offer 1.1 to Tan Sri lim wee chai of top glove? No way.

But if you're in that scenario, and your positions is too big, or you just dont feel like selling.

Write a letter to management, and ask to be allowed to be a private shareholder. There is no method of distributing money to shareholders that is more tax efficient than a dividend, even if the shareholder is a director.

If you're certain of the value of your stock, and have very long term capital, why not hold shares of a sdn bhd company. Nothing wrong.

====
Sslee Dear Jon,
Can you look into TA forum. Datuk Tiah MGO at 66 cents. The independent advisor conclude the fair and reasonable value at RM 2.60. TA assests are in valuable hotels in very good location and generating very good profit. TA has formal dividend policy of distributing min 40% Net profit. Your future self calvintaneng is trying to explain questions from some of the minority share-holders as what to do? So please help and should your fund quickly buy at 66.5 cents now.
Thank you.
02/09/2018 15:30

Alex, well, from my post you can clearly see how little i regard those things hahaha. I read the intelligent investor at 11, and am a fully inoculated value investor. Every time i try to read a TA book, i feel like vomiting blood.

Having said that, if you think there is a few i should consider reading, let me know, ill take a look.

====
your book list lacks the trading element...
lacks the killer instinct risk management, money management, sailang management, Technical analysis....
02/09/2018 14:23

Yeah, i sold, maybe i am stupid.

The interesting thing about Parkson, is that this is a RM400 million company, handling roughly RM4 billion in revenue. That is insane, if they can get even 3% net profit margin, it would be incredible profits.

However, i think people are mistaken in how hard it is to get 3%. Amazon, in its entire history, i doubt, have made even USD10 billion for its retail division. It has absolutely decimated the entire industry and the margins of everyone, but it has not made much money from there. And this is a close to 1 trillion dollar company.

Parkson is cheap, quite cheap. But they are probably better net asset plays. If it turnarounds and become profitable, which i really don't know how, it will become a fantastic investment returns wise. But i find it really hard to see.

The right move for parkson now, is to basically liquidate everything that is no profitable and give it back via a dividend.

But this is william chengs baby, and something he has put his life into building, i dont think he will do that, but will try to keep it alive, to the monetary detriment of shareholders (including himself).

So i really really dont know what do to here. but i wouldnt mind buying 1-2% when its down to like 40 sen or something. But my cash not that much, so its needs to stay at that price for long time while i build up more important positions.

but the fact i am saying they are more important positions while, at the same time saying i will not put all my money in those positions, but put them in parkson, should be a warning that i am not fully logical and rational. And i do not truly understand all my investments.


==
Outliar I thought you still had Parkson in your portfolio, still think its a decent turnaround and net asset play?
02/09/2018 11:34

As always charles hits on the dot.

That is what i'm doing. I told myself this.

I will do this for 10 years, reading annual reports, tracking my returns, running my fund etc. If after 10 years, i cannot show to myself that i cant beat the market comfortably, to an extent where i can say i'm good.

I will close the fund, return all the money, and forget about being a fund manager.

I will move most of money to indexes, other than some where i think is really good companies.

And just spend the rest of time doing what i really enjoy. I prefer reading good books to annual reports. And i definitely do enjoy reading annual reports.



====
CharlesT Keep track on yr record for 3 to 5 years and then u evaluate yrself.

2017 less than 20% return (whats yr exact return? 15%-18%?)
2018
2019
2020

This could b more effective way to measure yr inv theory n method.

Abiility to write good book theories with good england may or maynot translate into good return...at the end of the still go back to the figures.
02/09/2018 11:58

Petronm is cheaper and I am more sure. So is osk, trop, etc etc.

But skp, has a few things that are very attractive. And based on gut feeling, it's actually not bad. Oh well, if I miss the boat, I miss the boat.

====

Posted by newbie911 > Sep 2, 2018 08:32 AM | Report Abuse

Skpress looks nice, why u still hesitate to enter?

Choiiiiii,

Hahahaha. Well good luck. I see also scared tbh hahaha. What do you use? Interactive brokers?

====
Alex™ Hmm... Can't find one currently... At night time I play position trade based on TA and little FA only... After placed order then go to sleep... Wake up morning then see got hit my stop loss or my target profit... Hehe..
02/09/2018 09:17

Famous Amos, If i am like Calvin when i'm his age.

I'll be very happy. More than enough money to live very very comfortably to his final days. Have a loving family. Have a sharp mind and yet still take himself and life humorously. To have all the time he wants to do only the thing he likes.

If i were to want anything more, compared to how calvin tan is today, is to have better eyesight!! Hahahahaha

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FamousAmos I can see after 50 years Choivo will become a farking nagger like TanEnd. I can see lots of similarities between this young TanEnd and the old Choivo.
31/08/2018 17:21

Thank you, not easy to get a compliment from you hahaha.

I just happened to spend alot more of my time than others in this area. And i also happen to speak very very loudly and publicly on these things, im fairly certain they are much smarter ones than me, especially in India, China and US.

Some of the research by young fellows, i really cannot even compare. We come to the same conclusions or similar ones. But their research is way way way more comprehensive.

Having said that, most of the research reports in those countries is useless for my purposes.


====
How old are u? If u r really 20+ years old i think u could be the smartest young chap i hv ever seen....

If u could be a little bit more adventerous u can do very well in stock mkt i believe
31/08/2018 07:05

When his capital was smaller, he punted alot on catalyst events, and did arbitrage on M&A.

He also punted on currency and most notably silver. On the first, he expected USD to drop, and so hedged it by buying great bonds or companies, denominated in foreign currency. And so made it on both the investment and the currency appreciation.

For silver, he predicted a demand outstripping demand, and really shocked the silver market when he first bought, because nobody knew who was buying so much suddenly. In his words, his analysis was right, but he bought too early and sold too early. Hahahaha

He also did long dated contracts that basically said he needs to pay if 30 years down the line, if S&P was below a certain price.

He punts, but very intelligently.



===
CharlesT Hopefully he can spare some small money for punting...everyday talk abt WB book stories very sien....

WB has unlimited funding fm his insurance co..bsides he also quitely do a lot punting biz...just that he never tell u only
31/08/2018 10:09

I never deleted anyone's comments. And i dont think i can do it, its not like facebook. He deleted it on his own accord.

Here they are, reproduced from my email.


"That makes him feel good mah. I can imagine he lives in his Buffett Bubble House looking out, saw us walking away with tonnes of cash in our hands and he giggled to himself "what a bunch of fools, you guys have no ideas what you are doing"

"I am thinking of writing an article "the difference between Jon lohsoh and soojinhou"

"Jon lohsoh is heavy on opinion weak on analysis, soojinhou is the opposite"


I'm always a little irritated when i get comments that are essentially personal attacks, or pointless and illogical mocking, especially if i they are from people with brain like Icon8888.

Because this means, i am probably right, as he would have criticized logically otherwise, and it also means i now learn nothing.

Its irritating really. I always have such hope that icon8888 teaches me something whenever i see a notice that he commented.


===
Outliar Why did you delete his comments then? Would've like to see what Icon said
31/08/2018 19:10

Fantastic as usual.

Do you mind sharing your research on the nh foods jv.

Icon, there is no way that you can be harsher than I am with myself. Haha

I'll be honest, I always thought you were pretty sharp, but sometimes I just feel like your experience and talent is wasted.

Having said that, you're articles were quite profitable for me, ewint etc, just for the sake of a quick punt.

But Investments wise, I'm sad to say Ive never gotten a single inspiration from you. A pity really. Because I think your perspective for investment will be very fascinating.

===
Icon8888 deleted my comments. Feel bad being too harsh on the Young Ciku

let him has some fun... what the heck...
31/08/2018 10:05

Sslee, respect him as a friend.

I don't.

As far as I'm concerned, he's Koon yew yin here. Or Koon Koon if I want to.

If I meet him in real life, I might call him Mr Koon. Because chances are, that would only occur if he invited me, and I wouldn't want to be rude as his guest.

Here, he is just a name on a screen. If you use my age as an argument, it means you have no argument. If I never told you my age, you would have guessed several decades after 26.

Here, your worth is only measured by the value of your ideas, or in his case, the ability to move markets. When its positive, people call him Mr Koon. If he's selling, he is sohai unethical Koon.

Both of which care inaccurate. Koon yew yin is best.

==



Posted by Halite > Aug 30, 2018 11:34 PM | Report Abuse

what sort of logic are you talking about ?

call uncle , not koon yew yin

since you are just 26 years old

Sslee called him Mr koon

did you not see?

do not forget ,

how you speak reflect how you are brought up

do not make your mother feel shameful of your ill manner

Koon yew yin,

What would be the basis to prove he made losses as he was misled by you?

If he buy when you ask him to buy, and he lose money, due to you selling. And we can prove beyond reasonable doubt. Does that suffice.

Answer here, and I'll take it on. Sslee, we agree on the fees being 30% OK boh.

Small cap index down almost 25%. Otb also lose money. You sure boh. Break even also is got alpha of 25% d

====

CharlesT I believe most sifu made profit in real life..u really think icon8888 lose money in 2018 meh
30/08/2018 21:13

Sure ah? If this is in your opinion, the worst year since 2008, I very happy with my performance man.

====
CharlesT This is certainly the worst year since 2008
30/08/2018 20:02

I'm actually considering buying. We'll see.

For them maybe, but why this for NTA play when got property company. those land sure got value one.

No idea really.

Why? Didnt they say that for this quarter as well?

===
Posted by faraday9933m > Aug 30, 2018 07:28 PM | Report Abuse

look forward to next quarter. next quarter should be much better.

Now mostly aluminium. Or mix.

not steel.


===
Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Aug 30, 2018 07:24 PM | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > Aug 30, 2018 07:21 PM | Report Abuse

FYI Electric Car uses anodised aluminium....

Audi, Volvo etc etc uses anodised aluminium.

Steel is DEAD, REPEAT, STEEL IS DEAD.

Is car body made of stainless steel or aluminium ?
I do not know.
I am sorry.

Thank you.
Ooi

Why not sell some masteel or whatever, to subscribe for your priceworth right issue. Should be higher then.

Interesting.

Interesting. I really dont know how to buy mmag. Frontken, not sure if given the other opportunities then, i could have seen it.

Dear Mr Ooi,

You are a top trader. As for investing, well, i think you can be a top one too, if you try hard, but that is not your edge for now.

I think you should stop listening to Mr Koon Yew Yin, and stick to what you know.

Which is trading.

All this electric car things, is for investor to analyse. If you analyse, what is a punt or a trading buy, turn into investment buy. And what is good for trading or for investment is very very different. The overlap is very little.

Good luck. I think you will continue to make money, if you go back to your old philosophy, and stick very closely to it.

I also lose a little bit in lay hong, its only a 2% position, which i bought despite not being sure. And its a little bit irritating, cause i still don't have chance to completely my research, and thus dont know to sell or buy more, hahaha.

I should have just buy even more of the companies im sure. Those Can drop 20% also i dont care, just buy more.


===
Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Aug 30, 2018 07:10 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Jon Choivo,

To be honest, I do not care so much on electric car projects.
I buy a stock based on TA and FA.
Others I do not care so much.
If I am right, I let profit runs.
If I am wrong, I will cut loss.
I want to invest in simple way, I just follow my rule.

So far I am doing very well since 2009 until 2017.
Honestly, I lost money in 2018 now.
Wait for 31/12/2018 to see my result can reverse or not.
I made a few major mistakes in 2018 by not following my rule.
I regret now for not discipline enough to follow my rule.

Thank you.
Ooi

In all the years i've been an auditor, the only people trying to hide profit is private companies.

You know how hard to persuade management to take up an adjustment that will reduce profit?

You think management nothing to do but hide profit? You think they dont know high profit means high share price? You think the boss does not have most of his net worth tied up in the stock?

And the profit figure in the financial statement is almost irrelevant when it comes calculating tax, its the nature of your income and expense.

Sure, the tax agent starts with the financial statement, but they go through the transactions themselves. You can hide profit, you cannot run from tax.

===
Posted by uptrending > Aug 30, 2018 07:03 PM | Report Abuse

Cannot understand why the results so disappointing, suspect the Management hiding profits for next financial year to conserve cash and pay less tax for current FY, but the prospects of the current FY19 is optimistic.