Well. Im OK. I'm down 4% more in the last 3 days.

But I'm fine with the recuperative actions of the government causing some volatility in markets.

I can just keep buying. I just hope it stays low for a couple more months.

At the end of the day, malaysia is getting better. Just need some bitter medicine first.

Luckily, i like bitter taste. Haha

Are you stupid ah?

drop another 20% i can consider.

The Boring Company

hahah, they are plenty globally. Only question is, given the inherent cost advantage of gamuda being local and have the machines in place already, can gamuda lose?

But, is gamuda willing to sit there shake leg until tender finish, or uninstall everything and go home? Tender can be easily few month. The cost per day is easily few mil. Let say just 2 months, cost may exceed 100mil (depreciation etc).

If gamuda want to claim for idle while tender running, gov going to ask them go fly kite. It may even cost more than another contractor, shipping in their machine.

Very difficult questions.

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Posted by godhand > Oct 8, 2018 05:01 PM | Report Abuse

can u pls do homework ah which construction company do underground tunneling which never do

Need to appear postive, otherwise he also start to panic haha.

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Posted by bnmacai > Oct 8, 2018 01:00 PM | Report Abuse

Victor, why u keep on giving out smiley face?

Sunway flow all their construction jobs inside. Not that big of an effect. And construction is only 20% of profit.

Anyway, at this price, no need to think too much. I have a small position.

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RainT As main revenue and profit of Sunway is from the construction segment , so with the current situation of government cutting spending on construction....this will be bad for Sunway ....

What you all think ?
05/10/2018 18:15

Sudden dissappearence of the premium-ness, means huge drop.

Just because something is overvalued for a long time, does not mean it wont drop.

===============

godhand premium company require premium valuation. look at QL, Harta, Topglove,Scientex,Sam,Timecom,Nestle
08/10/2018 09:54

I actually think Gamuda was stupid expensive at RM5, expensive at 3.1.

And at today's price, around Fair Value. I need cheap before i buy.

See you at RM2.

Good luck next year. Should bounce back. You're one of the better ones at being both a speculator and investor well.

Topped up.

As its small part of portfolio, its not that big of a raise actually, only like 3% of portfolio after raising it by 30%.

======


Posted by Outliar > Oct 4, 2018 01:34 PM | Report Abuse

Increase your stake by 30%?

RainT,

I can't tell you without risking my job. That should tell you enough.

I'm not super confident. But with important data im privy to (pcukm for each section, and revenue for each toll pcukm etc), and using very very conservative estimates. Like seriously damn conservative, you know how kiam i am.

It still looks like a decent investment. If you use normal estimates, it becomes bloody amazing at this price.

I queued to increase my stake by 30% today. Will be doing the right issue. Having said that, its only 3% or so of my portfolio on current market value. If i do the right issue, will probably push it up to like 5%.

Why did i not buy more? They are other bloody amazing investments now in KLSE, that you can buy using conservative estimates. But wce, if you have a 10 year perspective, have very very interesting kickers.

Wow.

Im 30% on this one as well :)

Im betting felicity is minimum 30%.

But im still pretty ok with it.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/150917.jsp

Here you go

====
handsomejs Who owe Petron currently ? What is the implication of the rising oil price toward this stock ? Somebody pls clear my air.
03/10/2018 02:34

I really want buy, but everytime i read. Everything is i guess, i think, maybe.

i went through all of DK66 post.

And theres nothing clear, IRR pluck from sky. To be fair, all the infor we have is from management, and nobody seems to be grilling them properly or asking the right questions to them.

Really dont know man.

https://www.lowyat.net/2018/170574/user-report-time-speed-upgrade/

Bout time, my preferred method as well. No drop in revenue.

This is to an extent, still very much an insurance company. So theres alot of unknown.

But if you see how surin structured the sale of the insurance co to generali. You can see the character of surin. He's got balls, and appears to have integrity.

What is

"Surplus/Deficit attributable to takaful operator or participant"?

Is it the profit/loss sharing element with the people being insured?

That is fidelity


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Posted by wilsonchan87 > Sep 21, 2018 07:25 AM | Report Abuse

Notice got one foreign fund FIL LIMITED keep non stop buying for this

At some point, this will become a truly fantastic buy, but i have no idea when is that.

70 sen, not on radar.

When hit 1.7 peak, now on radar.

You guys stupid or what ah?

Bkn takut beli.

Got better things to buy. You ingat bursa hanya ada jaks ke?

Mcm tu, suspend semua saham sajalah, bagi jaks trading saje!

Kepala buto.


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Posted by SarifahSelinder > Sep 20, 2018 12:33 PM | Report Abuse

Drop to 80 sen lg takut beli? Put in fd je la

Have you seen the insurance given to RMBS CDO's by AIG to Lehman Brothers etc?

Its was so under priced and stupid, that they need USD85 billion from the US govt to be bailed out.

Stock price drop from USD1,173 to USD19.43. Even today, its only USD 54 per share. Still 95% down from peak.

And this is AIG, the biggest insurance co in the world.

Guna otak sendiri boleh? You ingat china Allah ke? Takde pergi baca annual report bank-bank china ke? You want to see how the GIL expand anot?

ICBC in 2005 before listed, bad loans about 40% tau. Not kidding. Need so much injection by china gov to get it pretty for listing. And even then, GIL was 5 times higher than world average.

I don't care who borrow who, who invest in what, who give loan to who, who say what to who.

If it does not make sense to me, i won't buy.


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Posted by SarifahSelinder > Sep 20, 2018 12:31 PM | Report Abuse

Yg jon ni ada ada je

Yg ni nak beli 10,000 shares je bukan main doubting kiraan bank bank China yg beri billion billion loan

See lah, if the price drops back down after my salary come out, can maybe buy a 1- 1.5% position to punt and support kc lah. Hahaha

I think its more than high single digit IRR for malaysian IPP back in the day. Not too sure.

If you're right, jaks should be lower. Malaysian IPP got super sweetheart deal. Its like giving money away to them only.

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Posted by silverwind > Sep 20, 2018 10:55 AM | Report Abuse

Googled on some old news, from the star, the IRR for direct nego IPP in malaysia is in the high single digit range, so should be less than 10%, and only those old power concession can get a higher IRR of more than 10% like what YTL enjoyed.
So I guess those people in the power industry before know pretty well the IRR from jaks power plant is pretty good, and those outsiders just speculate and cook on whatever stories that shiok sendiri.
内行看门道， 外行看热闹

Just an educated guess. It also serves as my own bar to determine if its good enough.

Everything about the JAKS IPP seem to guesses or believe management figure.

On IPP's definitely working out, we can refer to mudajaya. Having said that, having china onboard means vietnam gov cannot fool around. So there's that.

If China does not screw jaks kao kao, should be ok. Worth a punt i suppose.


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Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 19, 2018 08:48 PM | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo simply slaps a 7.5% interest rate on the borrowing

ask him his estimate is based on what assumptions ? what credit rating ? what tenure ?

and on what basis does he believe that the loans deserve such credit rating ?

Like that might as well say 10 sen buy hahaha

Because its a great deal for me now at this price. It may get cheaper or more expensive, but im not here to predict.

If it gets cheaper ill buy more. If it gets expensive, ill stop buying or sell.

Very simple only.


Posted by ks55_ > Sep 19, 2018 12:42 PM | Report Abuse

70-80 sen buy the best. Why hurry now?

kcchongnz,

So basically using management estimated IRR and NPV is the best thing we have going on for now?

Hexza invested in SAPRNG?

You know quek leng chan how rich? You know he burn how much playing poker in casino?

This is just invest and help friend money to him. Thats it. His dividend from hong leong each year way more than 700m.

This is make friend money. Support friend money.

====
Posted by alextan5680 > Sep 19, 2018 02:00 PM | Report Abuse

If every year same margin same profit no improvement,then why Mr quek leng chan invest 700million,throw to sea?

Use your brain when replying.

Prove my arguments wrong. Don't give me bullshit comments about price movement, short term, it can go anywhere.

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Posted by alextan5680 > Sep 19, 2018 12:13 PM | Report Abuse

Funny calculate,u can see ewi stronger and getting stronger loh

You don't suddenly backside here with cherry picked track record.

your biggest pick
SOLUTN-WA
HIAPTEK-WA
LIONIND

and to an extent MBSB

all holland until no eye see. Why never mention?

What is defensive what is aggressive stock? You tell me now. Show me your incisive acumen.

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Alex Shee my other top pick recently included frontkn, dufu, myeg and etc. all of them have good performance, but rcecap not yet. however, i think it is good to hold for future as a defensive stock.
19/09/2018 10:41

I look forward to even lower than that, so i can top up.

But now, meh, just buy a bit every couple months.


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Posted by ks55_ > Sep 19, 2018 04:30 AM | Report Abuse

So many idiots here. 1-1.2 will come.

"So total current sales & potential sales will be at 38.184B, excluding any other potential M&A for the next 10 years. "


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Correct way to calculate is like this.

Lets assume ekoworld is not just one of the best in malaysia. But god of property developer.

Chang Kim Wah (and Liew Kee Sin, he is non exec, but im sure he works) so god, until Tan Sri Leong Hoy Kum pray to him every morning when he wake up, and every night just before he sleep.

And like god, prediction come true. 10 year, RM38.184B sales, 10% margin.

Lets assume its even.

So its RM3.8bil per year, or RM380mil profit a year from this year.

Lets assume he really is god, and get this kind of return with no right issue etc, and the profit margin is after ALL the future financing cost needed to develop 38bil of GDV.

That is 14.6% earning yield for 10 years. Risk free rate is 4.3%.

So, if ekoworld is god, you get 10.3% above FD for 10 years.

But if he's human leh? What kind of return you looking at ?

and if the son, Liew Tian Xiong, is inevitably not as good as the father, what kind of return you looking at?

I can think of 10 companies now giving you better than 14.6% earning yield, without being god.

Also, ecoworld, the flagship co, is at its peak, only 7.2% net margin. So realistically, you are looking at more like 10.5% earning yield or 10 PE.

I close eye also can show you 10 companies significantly cheaper and probably just as good. At least in this kind of bear market.

GDV is a bullshit figure given by management. You should see the ones in 2013. To completely rely on it is foolish.

But if you want to use those kind of figures.

Trop is pulling out figures like RM43bil.

Mahsing RM26bil

IJM Land RM34bil

Etc etc

I can continue.

And i like how you get you RM15.91 per share price. Just divide GDV over shares. 100% profit margin man. You should teach me how to open property development co and get 100% margin.

Even google margin also not so high, and those people only need to pay for server and staff cost.

M&A is not free. If they issue shares, that will lower eps etc.

Otherwise, raise cash etc, you know how many rights etc gamuda and ijm do? Also lower eps.

The return for GAMUDA and IJM is rubbish. Even you take low since crisis to now, its about 100%, so basically about 7% per annum. Not including div lah tbf. With div maybe 9%.

And if you do since listing. Not exactly fantastic either

Unless someone in UK very kind heart, give them 20% clean ROI. In which case, i doubt it.

Unless they highly prescient, buy land in the future during crash in Britain, and develop/sell off when market better.

That is decade long plans.

Having said that, ecoworld is one of the best developers in malaysia.

So, you've got that going for them.

=========
Posted by 2Invest > Sep 13, 2018 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

Just based on 1 year data, I also don’t know how to calculate its’ intrinsic value. But overall it’s still considered a safe investment for now. Not to mention recent deal with North American Pension Fund.

Imagine GoucoLand entry price at 1.20 during IPO compare to yours that’s 1st. 2ndly, as at May this year the company has cumulative sales of RM8.184B.

https://ecoworldinternational.com/wp-content/themes/ecoworld-internati...

3rd, from the current sites, the company targets a total of 30B GDV for the next 10 years.

So total current sales & potential sales will be at 38.184B, excluding any other potential M&A for the next 10 years.

RM38.184B/2.4B of shares = RM15.91/Share

If you invest 100K shares now may cost you about RM106K, but EWInt has to sale or develop for you properties worth (100000*RM15.91) = RM 1.591M for the next 10 years.

At least for now I don’t see any property in Malaysia you buy at 106K today & will become 1.59M in the next 10 years.

So why worry?

If you guys really into property than can consider to invest another good local company, so your real estate business will be running 24 hours a day.

Cheers!!!

No idea how true is that figure. But lets say its correct.

I expect net margin to be 10% tops. Its not like they got the land cheap.

So RM800mil in profit.

Lets say its over 3 years.

That is Rm270 mil per year.

At current price of RM1.07 or MV of Rm2.6bil.

That is basically PER10 given current valuation.

I can think of 5 prop dev companies, cheaper than 10PE, among other valuation aspects.

Now, one might say, but its Ekoworld! There is the name.

You telling me the name better than mahsing, tropicana, sunway? I don't think so.

Having demonstrated that they are better investments out there when it comes to property development companies.

The logical conclusion is that tts a punt, and you guys should have sold at 1.2 or so.

Its may go higher than that, but to speculate (not invest) on stock going higher in a bear market is a fools game.

Speculators in KLSE only really make money in bull, most anyway, icon may be good enough to be different, i have no idea.

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Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 30, 2018 08:04 AM | Report Abuse

They just secured RM2 bil sales through Buiilt To Rent scheme

Unbilled sales closed to RM8 bil now

Woof Woof!

What special information you got from AGM?

Director name? Company registration number?

You need me to tell you the profit figure?

Hahahaha.

For all your foolishness and stupidity, at least you bought this co. For stupid or smart reason. I have no idea.

Were you the guy who looked like he was missing one chromosome? The one with the irrelevant questions?

Next time, intro by saying you are learner king. I'll be sure to go over and give you voucher for english and critical thinking lessons.

I'll even recommend you a few things to study, so you can finally have the intelligence of a normal human being.

Its worth striving for, trust me!

====


Posted by Learner King > Sep 7, 2018 12:47 AM | Report Abuse

Attended the AGM but I won't share anything here because got one suhei that trying to charge people 5k here andi dont want him to get free information. I only can tell u all sure won't regret to invest in this company. Cheers

And as always learner king still got reading comprehension problem.

"if my comment resulted in today's drop."

If. Do you understand the meaning? Hahahahaha

You need to learn more man. Maybe when you are learner god, you can finally have the intelligence of an average individual.

Jia you!

Anyway, if my comment resulted in today's drop, i'm happy. Because i get to buy more at a cheaper price.

And i don't mind telling you this, because i won't be buying anymore for some time. Its already by far the largest position in my portfolio. Lets see how things go moving forward.

Haha takeprofit,

Do note, all my comments are for my benefit only. Take it how you may.

I'll just say this. The relevance of the size of the GIL depends on the spread.

Qqq3,

If one ever needs proof of one's mind being dead to change once one has passed their fifties. Even when presented evidence.

Can just go read your comments.

I bet you make way more from overly optimistic people who follow you :)

There is a very fine line between being realistic and cynical.

And for the person making money off the optimist, it might be best for him to imply those who are realistic as cynical individuals, and hope that whatever said, does not dampen the exuberance of the foolish optimist.

=====


Posted by Icon8888 > Sep 14, 2018 10:59 AM | Report Abuse

ok ok whatever...

why are you so cynical ? everything people said you will imagine ulterior motive, cheating, etc... aiyohhhh why I keep bumping into people like you... that means there must be a lot of cynics out there...

good also lah... cynics cannot think straight... easier to make money from them..

I encourage you all to continue your way of thinking ... good good good...

The only bit of research lacking for me, even my own.

Is i have not ate it. And being a bachelor, i have very wide experience in eating processed food hahahaha.

I cant really find it in JB, when i'm back to KL, i plan to buy one of each and go talk to promoters and aunties on the product.

You are correct, it is second highest i think, behind aeoncr.

Please sell :)


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cyeec2000 The facts is gross impairment ratio is still the highest in the industry..
08/09/2018 12:05

moneySIFU,

Very important question i think everyone is still missing out.

How is the product, how does it taste, how does it compare relative to the market? Whats the value proposition. Does it work in tandem with consumer behavior, or at least your understanding of it?

This is key, buying layhong without understanding or eating the processed food, is like buying restaurant without eating a meal. Haha

The valuation of that company is pretty fucked though. Have fun.

====


Posted by TheContrarian > Sep 7, 2018 04:27 PM | Report Abuse

Used the proceeds from OSK to buy Toyoink at 0.675 today. Toyoink also gives dividend.

jaks and layhong gua.

Have anyone managed to find out the economics of the power plant?