I just took ipo profit before tax and add back the interest cost. The rest I assume is the cost to run the plant.


Its not 100% correct, but it's a decent estimate. And you don't need to know the weight of a woman to know if he's or the age of a man to know if he is old.

You gave me the revenue with the calculation below. Maintainence? Staff cost? Laying down of transmission line? Coal cost etc etc?

To top it off, power plant cspex usually exceed depreciation. So you need to consider that.

===



Posted by newbie8080 > Aug 22, 2018 11:33 AM | Report Abuse

@ Jon Chiovo

Correct me if I'm wrong.
Not sure how Malakoff compute the RM1.3 bil before interest. SOme variables are different between the power plant in Vietnam and Malakoff's.

If based on a simple and conservative calculation,
1,200MW would generate approximately USD515 mil profit before expense

Breakdown
----------
1,200MW= 1,200,000 (kW)
Estimate rate charge= USD0.07 kWH
Assume only 70% utilisation

1,200,000 X 0.7 X 24hrs X USD0.07 X 365 days
= USD515,000,000 (rounded figure)

Bought more actually, but it's only a 5% position.

Don't ask me question about next quarter or next 2 quarter. I don't know and I didn't research in that direction because its a waste of time.

I studied the long term characteristics of it, and it's interesting. Why, I won't tell you. Haha.

If it becomes expensive, I'll share out the research, because I like the business and would like to hold even if is close to fair value. And in cases like those, I need to find out if some of my thinking is correct.

At this price, it's cheap enough that I don't need to be 100% right.

===

Posted by newbie911 > Aug 22, 2018 11:46 AM | Report Abuse

Jon, are u still with petron?
Since petdag good quarter, will petron/hy follow same good earning as well?

Alex, my picks I think are some are cheap,but close to fair value, the others are around fair value a little higher.

As I am a long term net buyer of these companies. What I want is lower prices not higher ones.

Why should I tell you, and potentially raise my cost? Why should I write for people here to understand and to buy?

You think my name is kyy, or bonescythe or icon8888, write d, when price go up, sell to you?

Tell you what, you pay me 5k, I'll tell you my best pick and share the full research with you.

Or, you invest 50k in my fund with 5 years lock, and I'll share my full research I give my Investors as well. And you can goreng me everyday on WhatsApp.

====

Posted by Alex™ > Aug 22, 2018 11:35 AM | Report Abuse

aiya ah jon, talk so much, I still waiting u recommend stock

Who gives a shit. Important question is the IPP going to bet very profitable after tax?


Posted by abang_misai > Aug 22, 2018 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

Only sohai has sold. 2Q will be at least RM50mil Profit.

Anyway, good luck, i hope the IPP is as fantastic as you guys think it is.

If you are able to back it up demonstrably with figures, other information, or a perspective i failed to consider properly.

Kindly let me know. I'll owe you one.

I would rather be wrong. Because then, i can just go buy some and make money.

Hmm, your entire point, seem to be relying on this

"The 3 chinese banks will not approve the US$1.4b loan if the project's profitability and ability to repay loan is subject to undue risks such as plant output rate and consumption rate."

Which i have shown to be demonstrably untrue. The China 1B1R, have plenty of projects funded by state held banks, including those 3, that are definitely not profitable, but done for geopolitical interest.

In any event, the closest we can find is MFCB, who has foreign IPPs.

They build in 1995 and 1996. The stock, went from RM1.5 to RM2.5, split and got where it was today over more than 10 years.

Are you really really sure?

Did Malakoff and YTL had to compete with American and Korean competitors? I dont think so, probably not?

Did Malakoff and YTL get special positions from the goverment, probably. Is JAks going to get special positions to allow them to charge abnormal rates? I don't know. Are they ? I doubt it.

========================
Posted by DK66 > Aug 22, 2018 10:42 AM | Report Abuse

The BOT projects awarded after 2010 has a completely new tariff structure to be based on its decision 41 /2010/TT-BCT, which requires tariff to be split into technology-based fixed price (capacity charge) and technology-based variable price (energy and supplementary charge).

Jaks Hai Duong power will be paid "Capacity Charge", " Energy Charge", and "supplementary Charge". Capacity charge is based on fixed price per kwh of the capacity installed. Energy charge is based on energy produced. Supplementary charge covers exchange rate fluctuation, land lease etc.

The capacity charge guaranteed a predetermined net returns on the capital invested by the operator including the interest on loan. The energy charge provide additional returns based on energy production. Coal, lime, and oil costs are on pass thru basis.

The tariff structure is total unlike malakoff.

It effectively means that the BOT agreement guaranteed a predetermined returns on the capital invested by the operator regardless of the electricity generation and consumption.

The 3 chinese banks will not approve the US$1.4b loan if the project's profitability and ability to repay loan is subject to undue risks such as plant output rate and consumption rate.

The tariff structure is total unlike malakoff.

Icon8888, I opening an ico with 10 year irr of at least 50% using only pat.

I want investment of 10mil you in boh? I can show you historically ico who got higher irr than that as proof of it possibility in execution. :)

You can't see the contract or anything, but need to take me at my word.

Please. Management can pluck any figure from the sky to tell you. Your job as an investor is to be skeptical and try to find out how accurate it is and put it a margin of safety. That is basic.

But as you are a speculator, you clearly do not give even the steam off your piss to that. Most of your articles are there to fry up the sentiment by telling a story to that end.

Very well researched to find sudden profit jumps, many of which are unsustainable, but you are only interested in frying up sentiment and selling to those who follow you.

My name is not Koonbee or some fella on i3 who cant think to save his life when it comes to investments, and will buy what you sell at a higher price.

You are going to need more those abstract comments. Back it up with figures or logic. Preferably both. Give me independent research, not something dependent on the projections done by a 24 year old analyst fresh out of university, with figures plucked from management backside, for his boss who has his own agenda.

Find me one thing Warren buffet bought, that did not require alot, I mean alot of independent thinking, entrepreneurship or the understanding of it, and business sense.

Sense of adventure? Well I'll go skydiving. I don't need adrenaline from the markets.

Cksam,
http://en.nhandan.com.vn/business/economy/item/5803702-vietnamese-busi...

In any event, 6.5% rate also die. Your job in the market is to find investments with margin of safety. Your job is to wonder if the IPP can take a much higher rate, not lower. Do not start rationalizing your buy now, by finding rates that are low enough that it will work. That is a receipt for disaster.


===========================================================================
Icon8888 Sarifah, the return is even better than that. IRR is calculated AFTER deducting interest expenses.

Instead of relying on information released by the company, Jon prefers to dream up a different universe structured around all kind of weird and biased information

Too much warren bufett books had killed his independent thinking, sense of adventure and entrepreneurship
22/08/2018 09:11

Icon8888 .... and business sense
22/08/2018 09:13

cksam In Vietnam their effective interest rate is 6.25%. Most of their loans either housing or business stands at 6.49%.

https://vietnam.deposits.org/

So, that basically solves your interest rate calculation.
22/08/2018 09:59

That is maybe 30% Guranteed.

100% guaranteed, well, dont want tell you lol. Hahahhaha

===
DK66 If you want 100% guaranteed stock, buy Rsena.
22/08/2018 10:18

Uncle koon 100x, also cannot even touch 10% of Warren buffet wor, how.?

Hahaha

You know, when I see uncle koon and all the money he has, and I look at myself, and the capital I have compared to him, I can't help but think, wah, God is fair.

Considering what I have in exchange, let him keep the money lah. His mischiefs in the market is set off by his donations anyway.

Serifah, no idea. However, mfcb funded most of their ipp internally. Cash vs borrowing is very different. Having said that, for mfcb to go from Rm1.5 to rm2.5, split and get where it was till today, took more than 10 years.

In fact, their plants in China and Malaysia were built in 1995 and 1996,so almost 20 year gestation period.

You sure it's guaranteed, and you sure will make money? Kyy say want to hold long term, and he can barely hold one year.

How sure are you? If guaranteed irr more than 10%, the whole world also pour money in to build, reducing how attractive it can be due to the much increased supply.

Jaks need 2 more years to finish. You sure the economics still the same?
============

Alex™ I only know uncle Koon is richer.
22/08/2018 08:31

Koon Bee Talk like you have few hundred million in bank
22/08/2018 08:38


SarifahSelinder Jon

IRR 12% even loan interest 7.5% still profit kan?

U doubt IRR 12% not real ni will affect MFCB IPP in Vietnam too kan?

U saying MFCB punya Vietnam IPP pun also x profit?

Both JAKS dan MFCB pun x faham IRR?
22/08/2018 08:38
Jon Choivo

Posted by Nikmon > Aug 22, 2018 12:37 AM | Report Abuse

@Jon Choivo, just wonder any parties from the deal has disclose the loan term and rate given by 3 China banks, or 7.5 rate is just based on assumption?

==
I used 7.5 as that's the lending rate in Vietnam. But you have interest rate parity to think about as well.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/170711.jsp

I wrote something on this just now, would love to be proven wrong so I can go buy some.

Icon8888,

To be accurate, probably while I was still in secondary or primary school. :) in terms of investing, you've eaten more salt than I've eaten rice.

But it's not like I'm a naive fool either. I grew up surrounded with annual reports, business publications and I saw how my mom went through 2008 and came out profitably, and how my grandfather lost hills of rubber plantation in 1999.

Possibly and probably, it can very well be much more profitable than the malakoff and ytl of today In that case, let me dig up the early malakoff reports and if it will be comparable with the scenario in Vietnam.

Maybe interest rates there are higher, so charge more.

But do note, if you visit vietnam, the money is all coming from chinese who spend in casinos.

Its china buy land and build kind of development. Not exactly organic. Only Vietnamese making money are those who own land or buildings.

You sure casino got make that much money ah? The brights lights you see now how sustainable? Over the long term i expect Vietnam to do well, but given the math now, i have no idea, or its too close to tell.

Malakoff only makes ROA of 4.3% btw. Way lower than the monopoly of TNB.

So if you make money in rebound, get out. And then the powerplant turn out to be rubbish, also mean you win right ? :)

If want to make money off greater fools, just admit. No shame one.

======================================================================
Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 22, 2018 12:23 AM | Report Abuse

I have said enough. Victory in stockmarket is by making money, not winning arguments

Good night

Yeah ok. In this case, most china overseas infra jobs seem to geopolitical plot in this case.

I already provided the figures.

Everyone can see the demand, thats why every tom dick harry also pouring money in.

I'm just saying that in 2020, when the plant open, the economics could very well be different.

There is transmission lines etc also need to build.

YTLPOWER actually borderline make loss in power generation. They lumped it in with other utilities so hard to see.

WB power plant, the most efficient in the world, also make just below 10% IRR.

You sure their vietnam powerplant so power ah? TNB ROA also only 6.5%. You really sure your vietnam plant so power until can whack above 7.5%?.

If this was a cash build, sure can see profit, probably around 6% IRR possible. But with debt at 7.5% interest rate, no idea.

How about you use all the thinking power in excess you have over mine (since i've read everything really), to disprove with figures?

And not pray to god will kena, see muda.



======================================================================
Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 22, 2018 12:17 AM | Report Abuse

You guys don't read so many warren Buffett books. It will turn you into a robot without thinking power

Hmm icon8888,

The demand of higher electricity i can definitely see it, but i don't know how the profit going to suddenly appear, based on the data i have.

Do you have the details for Dong Muong 2? At least somewhere to start.

China Merchants Port Holdings, just paid 1.2bil USD to take over a Hambantota port, the sri lanka port with an average 1 ship a day.

That company is listed btw.

They either stupid, or government ask, or have very very long term view.
======================================================================
Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 22, 2018 12:02 AM | Report Abuse

Hmmmm CPECC is so stupid

Dk66,

Cant really see it.

Second point is, did the distributions come from profit or debt drawdown? Whats the current profitability of the plant?

Because like many businessman, his blood all flow down there when see stocks.

My grandfather was a good businessman, lost it all in stocks.

KYY when it comes to stocks, is a gambler. He does not think like a businessman.

That is US and Korea JV.

If its JV, how much debt did the JV have? i can see 1.46bil from 12 foreign banks, none of them are chinese.

And they started in 2015, after starting construction in 2012.

They also have another Gas plant, coming up. You sure the economics of the industry will still be that good by the time the vietnam plant finish?

I have no idea, but the math dont work out for me now. I look forward to be proven wrong.

Also where did you get the stat on the payout?

======================================================================

Posted by DK66 > Aug 21, 2018 11:52 PM | Report Abuse

AES Corp 51% owned mong Dong 2 power plant in Vietnam which started operation in Mid 2015 distributed US$46m and US$51m to AES Corp in 2016 and 2017 respectively.

Don't make bullshit comments.

Elucidate and back it up with figures and examples. Thrill me with your acumen. Without data, its just an opinion. And a pointless one at that.

I got no ego one. Prove me wrong, and ill change my mind instantly and buy on thursday.

===================================================================================
probability sounds like a post hoc analysis or canon behind the horse
21/08/2018 23:44

No idea.

Its too hard. But i find it very hard to see how the company will be profitable after tax, using malaysian IPP samples. Which is arguable one of the better industries compared to IPP's industry worldwide.

Guess how much is Ekovest making on the highways after deducting interest cost.

I let you guess. Take a minute.

Answer, RM8 million a year.

You sure can make fantastic profit with 5.6bil loan and interest payment? Vietnam term loan rate is 6-9%. Ok, take average 7.5%

That is RM420mil a year.

Malakoff has effective installed capacity world wide of roughly 6,346MW world wide. I would prefer to use TNB, but i can't get the statistic for effective installed capacity for TNB.

Malakoff profit before finance cost is about RM1 bil a year. Some years 1.3bil some less than 1bil.

Assuming JAKS can charge Malakoff level rates. On their 1,200MW They might earn RM190mil per year. So a loss of RM230mil a year after interest expense.

Now, lets say, we use Malakoff record breaking IPO results. RM1.3bil profit before finance, RM245mil. So a loss of RM 175mil a year after tax.

Now, Malakoff is mid tier, TNB is better, Ranhill one of the better ones, YTL is the worst. So its a decent sample, right in the middle.

You sure boh? Should be worth more than RM550mil. You want pay me RM550mil? I give you a contract that will lose RM175mil a year for 25 years. Lai lai!

And that is assuming full capacity usage. You very very sure ah?

You think china like to donate money is it give free contract?

Show me one scenario world wide, where financed a project, that did not properly fuck over the other party. Just one.

I dare you.

======================================================================
Posted by DK66 > Aug 19, 2018 10:54 AM | Report Abuse

The is so much attacks in this forum. Some begin to wonder why ? Most, if not all, attacks are targeted at KYY. The attack intensities as price falls, happy to see KYY suffering losses. However, does it really border him so much ? He admitted his mistake, sold down, and moved on. But many still live in anger. Who is the one really unhappy ?

Those with hidden agenda took the opportunity to instill fear. Making presumption that the vietnam IPP is facing cash flow problems, delays and doomed to fail. Hoping the weak and the strained holders will cut loss for them to buy cheap.

Without Vietnam IPP, Jaks will be under RM0.50. The RM25m losses from BG, if materialised, were overblown causing the price to drop from RM1.80, a massive wipe-off of RM450m market cap. Reasonable ??

Or perhaps what Icon888 feared most is happening here now ??

Icon888 quoted "One type of companies that I don't like to touch are those that the major shareholder only has very limited stake. For example, Hibiscus. Its major shareholder only owns approximately 10% stake. As such, even though I am bullish about the company's prospects, I hesitate to bet big. Ten out of ten PLC bosses resent holding only small stake in their company. After working so hard, most of the value they create will accrue to the rest of the shareholders. This makes them feel like an employee, and they don't like that. Most of the time, they will try to enrich themselves at the expense of the rest."

Andy Ang has less than 10% shareholdings ........

If Jaks is doomed, who would buy so much to bail out KYY ? I hope no one actually believes the ikan billis can take on a buffalo. Well, maybe those fund managers who scooped up the private placements at RM1.36 and RM1.38 are now average down.

What prompted these buyers despite all these attacks ? It is because continuous speculative attacks without merits will not deter fund managers and intelligent investors from buying. These investors are smart enough to conduct in-depth studies and take on calculated risks.

A simple business sense would tell you that " A company with 40% ownership in a RM7,600M power plant which promises 25 years of stable earnings should not be worth just RM550M ". With 3 chinese banks providing non-recourse RM5600M loan to finance the project, they must be confident with the builders.

CPECC parent company just completed and started operation on its 1,200MW Vinh Tan 1 power plant in Vietnam 5 months ahead of schedule. Why doubting CPECC's ability on Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant ?

To stay clear headed during turbulent times is vital for success. Best wishes.

I think when raider calls you pondan, it means your are more likely than not to be right.

When he call you pondan 10 times in a row, can go buy toto d. Sure kena.

3iii,

His pick is more right than wrong gua. Betting on Teh Hong Piow is not a bad bet.

But who got the brains to bet on teh hong piow, much less bet on him early. Hard to say le.

What raider is saying is,

When you disagree with me or call out my hypocrisy i will call you pondan.

But when i turn out to be wrong (as usual), i will run kuat kuat having goreng it and ask sorchai to buy d.

KC have very strong confidence of beating 5%.

But the fact that someone can force you to sell what you don't want to sell, is an unthinkable risk .

Its like saying, play russian roulette. Win, get 1 bil, lose you die. 1/5 odds you die.

That is a point of ruin from where there is no coming back.

For you ok loh, you dont mind going bankrupt mah.

You don't mind lelong house and go find son to stay with him, and have daughter in law look at you like parasite loh.

Later son divorce wife because want to be filial to this pondan father, then even funny loh!

Soon, raider will no face, leave and join ah moi sell vegetable loh!

If very technical, why need to look at results. Just look at chart lah!

======================================================================
Posted by Weeyaa > Aug 21, 2018 08:07 PM | Report Abuse

malaysian stock market really technical... just study chart... it will tell all..if drop..just q buy at possibble support...

To be fair, last time and now very big difference.

You need to compete also. :)

=====================================================================
Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Aug 21, 2018 08:07 PM | Report Abuse

No point bad mouth me here.
So good, show me your result that you are better than me.
Nothing to show, another tin kosong only.

Compete in I3 stock pick competition and show me your result.
FYI, you need to be two times champion, then you are considered to beat me.
1 time champion still lose to me.
Got balls, compete in I3 stock pick competition.

Is Layhong the first FS you ever read ah?


======================================================================
Posted by Eagle_T > Aug 21, 2018 07:28 PM | Report Abuse

Wah 63 sen now but my father ask me not to touch Layhong . As at 31 March 2018, Layhong trade receivables that had been past due but not impaired amounted to RM26.1 million. This is a very huge amount.

HAHAHA laugh die me.



======================================================================
Posted by Beary > Aug 21, 2018 07:26 PM | Report Abuse

How did this kautusakitjiwa1234 escaped from L&G lunatic asylum and ended in up in this lion den?

You are beyond stupid. But i guess you're young and its just PTPTN money. Little bit only.

I suggest you go buy FD until you grow a brain, investing wise.

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Posted by steeelman > Aug 21, 2018 07:01 PM | Report Abuse

who knows a company like layhong can down so fast in 1 month ?? everyday capital loss few millions, if i am boss sure sakit hati . next time i wont buy a downtrend stock anymore unless really show rebound

The net assets of a cost based business is not worth the paper its printed on.

For me, the good thing is the price die die don't want move, and twice a year div.

Give me chance to keep buying. I not WB, need to wait salary or div to buy.

I really don't understand why you people, who are long term net buyers of stocks, prefer a higher buying and cost price.

A little weird tbh.


======================================================================
Posted by TheContrarian > Aug 21, 2018 06:43 PM | Report Abuse

Only good thing is the twice a year dividends.

Haha yeah, but US index now damn expensive. China one still ok lah.



chabalang Another interesting piece from KC Chong...something relevant for most retail investors. Do keep up your good work! My 2-cent opinion, retail 'investors' will be better off just buying low-cost index tracking funds (but they won't because it is boring).
21/08/2018 18:42

Raider also thought people who asked to sell evergreen and hengyuan is pondan.

In raider case, maybe he should go cut kuku and turn into pondan, in order to improve his decision making and make more money. Hahahahaha

Then afterwards, he say he only supporting own team. Wah seh, his stock need to support one, imagine go out buy house, wonder if the area got support anot. Rental yield give him 10%, he go ask, got support anot first.

Neoh Soon Kean see you, sure think, you can take stockraider out of the paperboy, but you cant take the paperboy out of stockraider.

Why would you do something as stupid as that?

======================================================================
Posted by steeelman > Aug 21, 2018 05:41 PM | Report Abuse

i use my ptptn money to buy this, now dont know next sem still can sit for exam onot .

Is still cheap ish, but they are others cheaper.

But this one really has a pretty decent business behind it at a decent price.

Really damn sad when i see this one.

From long long time ago, i always said this co was cheap. But i never bought any. T_T

Was too busy buying others.

Still here haha. Had 17% gain at one point, now down 2%. But its a small 2% position.

My friend told me this q result likely to bad, due to feed cost etc etc. And i had a feeling that trading this earlier was a good idea.

But i told myself to never trade and look at my companies as Sdn Bhd unless fundamentals change or long term valuation change alot.

So i just hold :)


======================================================================

Posted by newbie911 > Aug 21, 2018 05:23 PM | Report Abuse

Jon chivo, are u still holding or alr take profit run?

How did KC hang goat head, sell dog meat.

Mind to elaborate?

What is there to dislike about someone managing someone else's money if he's ethical?

Haha i really love it when prices drop.

So as long as they use only their own capital, you will like?

Do you like bonescythe?

Highly unethical people when it comes to markets like KYY you like?

I suppose you also hate charlie munger, warren buffet, peter lynch, benjamin graham also?

If i decide to buyout all my partners today, you will suddenly go from don't like me, to love me?

Will i turn from in your view, have wrong philosophy to a genius in market?

You either have really weird standards for life. Or your ego literally is cannot take a loss at all.

======================================================================
Posted by qqq3 > Aug 21, 2018 02:51 PM | Report Abuse

I like those who plays with own capital...like KYY, like myself.

Ahh tempted.

In that case, Seth Klarman is a crook, Richard Robertson, Peter Lynch, Walter Schloss are all crooks.

Don't be foolish.

I do not deny that fund management is a sewer of crooks. When you earn money regardless of whether or not you earn money for your investors, and there is low skin in game.

The only ethical rule in fund investing, is to be super clear and honest about your philosophy. Which OTB does.

He has his subscriptions, which i think is the bulk of the earnings. And he manages some people's account.

That's very different from a mutual fund.

===================================================================================



qqq3 jon

I know...crooks don't want any rules, crooks don't need any rules.

But properly licensed mutual funds are properly monitored and measured by professionals.
21/08/2018 13:49

So your arguement is if anyone wants to open a fund.

They must consider volatility a risk?

If anyone want to talk publicly, they must also consider volatility a risk, no matter how stupid it is?

If most fund managers think like you, its not wonder most don't beat the index.

Why is volatility is risk?

Give me your logic.

Yeah, its not easy.

Look at their historical impairment rates. It will be quite interesting.

==============================================================================================================

Valuegrowth45 Thanks Jon for the sharing. I must say I don’t know how to value banking stocks. RCE is probably my first investment into this type of stock.

Anyway, I stay out to wait for their QTR and hopefully I can get more information about their impairment.
21/08/2018 06:17

qqq3,

Volatility is not risk. Using Beta, which is used to calculate volatility and risk. It would be riskier to buy MYEG at 0.68 than today at RM1.28.

That is pure stupidity. There is no elegant formula to calculate risk, and the past share price movement is and event stupider way to consider.

For me, OTB picks is risky, because of the short time frames, and highly reliant on sentiment. And that he is willing to buy not so much on fundamental, or to derive economic benefit from the company, but because he think in a few months down the line, someone will be willing to pay a higher price. That is risky to me.

But when it comes to this, clearly has the alpha. The only question is whether it can be maintained, and not wiped out. This one i really cannot answer. Traders, even great ones like Paul Tudor Jones, just seem to be subject very sudden and permanent reversal of fortunes, that can take decades to manifest.

Having said that, if his record is bad, most investors or traders, including yourself, must be down right retarded, with records not even equal to the steam off his piss.

This is why i said it was low risk.

You are right, balance of probabilities.

Right now, you seem hell bent on bending everything to somehow come out with the narrative that you are right.

Its not enough that people have similar viewpoints with you, but they must 100% follow you. And not just that, but prostrate before you, saying you are smarter and more right than them.

That's my impression of you based on our interactions and my observation.

That is just odd really.




===================================================================================
Posted by Jon Choivo > Feb 28, 2018 07:49 PM

Lets just look at the figures.

cash and cash equivalents is RM98mil. No borrowings. That means this company, you buy now at current market valuation, only 28mil.

Lets say worse case scenario, the company only make 1m per quarter or 4 mil per year till forever. Discount that at 4.5% (Fd/risk free rate rate). The company should still be worth around RM89mil.

Conservative FV: RM89mil + RM 98mil= RM187mil.

Current price of RM125 mil present margin of safety 34%.

That's pretty good.

Now that is very very conservative, assuming profit per year only 4mil.

If profit you estimate at say 10mil. Margin of safety goes up to 61%. Or even just 6 mil per annum. Margin of safety is 46%.

Thats a lot.

But of course, remember, what is low can go much much much lower. There are at least 4-5 companies in malaysia trading at less than net cash and cash equivalents. 2 of them is even profitable!

Csc looks cheap, my eye also open bigger.

But not cheap enough. Aih