https://focusmalaysia.my/top/hurricane-deltas-winds-topple-gear-disrupt-us-oil-refineries/

Sounds about right, but too hard to say, because the US plant is in USD, but that one should touching comprehensive income instead of P/L.

They do hedge currency, so we see lah.

thanks hng33

Yeap consolidating period. Results still going to be more than 300m honestly.

Sslee,

Depends on what you think the value of family mart is.

in 5 years, family mart will be worth more than QL current business.

Nepo,

Plastic prices were up before hurricane.

But the real meat is low naphtha prices, not higher plastics prices.

As long as not whole malaysia MCO, i'm ok.

Economy goes on, consumption of plastic goes on, crude oil/naptha price stays low

Looks like consolidation phase starting.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156792274581301&id=31911516300&sfnsn=wa


When YTL children like this, whole day talk fashion, couture and fashion show.

You think YTL got hope ah.

Aih, money really does not grow past the third generation.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/100120-brazilian-resins-prices-see-significantly-rise-since-beginning-of-the-year

https://www.plasticsnews.com/news/resin-price-changes-hit-processors-fourth-straight-month

https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-processors-face-thinning-supplies-and-escalating-prices

I topped up lol.

====
Posted by wallstreetrookie > Oct 2, 2020 12:02 PM | Report Abuse

If you already hold LCTITAN then it’s fine. Don’t chase that’s all. If it does break resistance RM3.0 then you can buy in

Thanks lim,

So far what i have is just high level numbers based on the data i can find.

Nice to know that a person on the ground confirmed this as well.

Still holding lah, relax.

The cashflow looks very tight. Looks like Tan Sri also kena margin call now.

Haha its very liquid, if i sell at most move just 2-3 sen.

When i sell, a few things is likely.

That time everyone want to buy, and i will sell too early.

Good luck.

On the TP, im sticking to what i said in the article.

"For me, the target price is dynamic.

When this article releases, and PP, PE and Butadiene prices shoot through the roof, it should increase to somewhere around RM2 to RM2.5 by 31 October 2020 as market now anticipate the strong projected profits.

I’m being conservative on this one, as there are quite a few fund managers who have been traumatized by this company and want to get out. This amount may be higher, if the telegram groups start promoting.

Personally, I’m projecting around RM550m or more for Q3, which is an all-time high quarterly profit.

But to be conservative, let’s say I’m wrong on this one, and its only RM350m.

Well, currently the market is pricing this company on a price to book basis, with the company not being worth much more than its cash, as most people still think this is some random petrochemical company that will suffer during this COVID, instead of one that will make record profits.

The results will surprise most of the people and result in an increase in share price, but as the market may still think the profit may not be sustainable, it may only increase to RM3-RM4 post Q3 results, as people want more proof.

Now, im certain Q4 will also be at least RM400m-RM550m in profits.

When this happens, suddenly, in the mind of the public, this company’s survival will no longer be in doubt, instead people will be thinking about all the expansion plans this company has.

They will think about the US associate contributing RM150m a quarter.

They will think about the Indonesia PP and PE plant which will grow revenue to RM25bil etc.

And then, suddenly, they would want to price in the growth and maybe push it up higher to 10PE.

This is where it will go up to RM6.5 or more.

The most lucrative investment is one where people go from thinking the company dying (and thus valuing it on Price to Book Basis), to thinking it will now be making supernormal profits with strong potential for growth, and thus valuing it on a Price to Earnings Basis.

And I think LCTITAN is one of these stocks with a lot of catalyst upcoming.

Needless to say, quite a few things have to line up very well in order to hit the RM6.5 target price, but I think the odds are pretty decent.

Buy and sell it at your own discretion. This is my target price, set your own based on your own observation and understanding of the situation."


My thinking will naturally adapt to any new information. I may or may not decide to update you guys if my thinking changes.

I think my piece is comprehensive enough for you guys do your thinking on your own TP etc

wallstreetrookie,

I suggest you make your own decisions, im still holding my lctitan.

I will tell you guys after i sell, but thats it.

The only person who can criticize OTB is his subscribers. He is not telling the public to buy or sell.

If you heard from people what OTB is doing, you only hear one part and not the other.

I am not a subscriber, so i don't criticize his performance. But based on all the third hand infor and my own observation.

Mr Ooi should be doing very well over the years.

Prime,

you wait 31 Oct see bah.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/57083.jsp

Tighter polyethylene supply to sustain prices. The recent recovery in business activities in Asia from the re-opening of economies from lockdown restrictions are expected to sustain the strong trend in polymer prices. Average SEA Polyethylene prices is now c.20% higher than its price at the beginning of the year (vs SEA polypropylene price c.5%) due to its tight supply. While the demand from the construction and automotive industries are expected to be tepid going forward, the demand from packaging and the healthcare sector has been sustaining the growth of the industry. We also believe that the tight supply in polyethylene can be attributed to the flattening of production costs between ethane based (US, Saudi) and naphtha based (Europe, Asia) production centres due to the plunge in oil prices and naphtha cost as feedstock yields from ethane based crackers [c.75% ethylene yield] for ethylene is more than double that of naphtha [c.30% ethylene yield]. (less ethylene based production due to flattening of production costs between ethane and naphtha crackers would lead to tighter supply of ethylene and polyethylene).

From pchem call by HLFG

When everything is opened, it should be around 70m per q.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/08/29/tok-pa-govt-studying-proposal-to-set-up-highway-trust-body-in-malaysia-redu/1898404

I think WCE shareholders best hope is this. If govt were to actually move forward with this. WCE may get their book value back.


===
abang_misai Rm40mil interest expenses per quarter when only 3 out of 11 sections start to recognise interest expenses. What if all the 11 sections open?
31/08/2020 10:21 AM

I think 2.5 by the third week of oct, barring unforeseen circumstances is pretty possible.

Im just worried about a potential PKP now.

last week of oct.

I find it quite interesting that this company can make good profits during Q2 the peak of Covid. Now that shops are allowed to open, i think Q3 got good chance to go back to the the usual 6-7m.

Also last q they transitioned to have 22% of their sales being from online (it was 4% previously), so they should be doing better online as well.

Selling for normalized earnings of about 14 times, and ROE of 40%, looks quite interesting.

With growth coming from vietnam as well (btw vietnam sales did not drop during their lockdown).

Looks very interesting

Looks like my PP and PE prices chart is right.

SCGM QR include May and June 2020, that time resin prices much lower than May and June 2019.

However, if you look at my chart, July to Sept 2020 prices are back up. Do note im projecting for July to Sept 2020 not April to July 2020.

Buy this at week 1 at the bottom of a seasonal cycle, and you should have a good outcome i think.

====
Posted by Henry8833 > Sep 28, 2020 4:21 PM | Report Abuse

At this price is still a good buy. But this is also similar to glove and O&G stocks which are seasonal in nature. How long can this last? 2 years?

Large drop in cost or strong increase in prices, in a low margin volume business gives rise to exponentially higher profit numbers, due to operating leverage.

Look at gloves, at first people think 10% increase in price equal to 10% increase in profit, before suddenly someone realized increase in price or reduction in costs is very different from increase in volume when it comes to profit numbers.



=====
Posted by kai8994 > Sep 28, 2020 1:15 PM | Report Abuse

No idea whether it will x3 or not, but oil price did not recover, in fact it has dropped to around USD41 - 42 from USD45 - 46.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-27/oil-heavyweights-saudi-arabia-russia-look-ready-for-a-showdown?utm_content=business&utm_source=facebook&cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social

Goldgent.

This is not some tiny ace market company with less than 500m market cap.

This one market cap is 4.5bil with 1.1 bil public shares.

It will only go up because earnings going up.

Danny, furniture demand for plastics is all time high due to the work from home boom, take a look at furniture markets results worldwide.

Vehicle sales have also recovered. Mercedes benz sales exceed covid in msia.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mercedesbenz-malaysia-sees-car-sales-recovering-firmly-demand-higher-precovid-level

Having said that, the real reason for much high profitability is not just prices rising back to pre covid levels.

But their cost falling 34% due to lower naptha prices.

Personally, david, we have our differences.

However, I don't want to argue. You have your way and I have mine.

However, it appears our path cross at this particular stock, and we actually think quite similarly for this one.

Good luck.

Either way, at 1.96, I think for the next 3-6 months, everybody who buy at this price will make money. Unless something incredibly unexpected happens.

Above rm3, well, everyone have to sendiri be smart.

Soros,

The upcoming line refinery in Indonesia and the us joint venture.

Wallstreetrookie,

Glad to hear that,timecom saved me also. I could sell it during crisis and high price and buy everything else. I have since bought back.

I hope you got some opensys and rcecap as well.

Look at your top picks today and mine.

Timecom (rm9 to m12)
Opensys (RM0.3 to RM0.8, high of Rm1)
Rcecap (rm1.2-1.9)
Petronm (this one I admit didn't go well)

All of the above not counting div.

I'm willing to bet 1-2 year from now lctitan price will be higher than today as well.

What about you?

Lionind
Annjoo
Hengyuan
Petronm
Datang
Etc, too many to list.

What was the price when you recommended and the price today?

Anyway, let's not talk about unrelated things here.

Also, as an investor, I love buying at cyclical bottom.

David,

When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade.

Even if I wrote it as an investment, the structure is still the same.

It's hard not to find buyers, when you are selling gold for a very cheap price.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-26-story-h1514324256-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_LCTITAN_5284_Five_Magic_Words_Rising_ASP_s_Falling_Cost.jsp

This is the full piece.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-26-story-h1514324256-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_LCTITAN_5284_Five_Magic_Words_Rising_ASP_s_Falling_Cost.jsp


This is the full piece.

Cheers

Well good luck guys. Tmr i will be posting my full research.

Sailang in this for bursa, no margin lah.

Because stock price bearish, that's why the gem is hidden haha.

====
Posted by soros228 > Sep 25, 2020 12:04 PM | Report Abuse

looked like hidden gem, but the stock price is bearish

Fabien,

LCTITAN profits is very much tied to naphtha cost.

They IPO'ed in 2017, using 2016 results, which had some of the lowest Naptha costs in recent history due to the oil price crash. Giving them their all time high profit numbers.

After that Naptha prices went back up, and PP PE prices got squeezed from trade war.

Now Naptha prices all time low, and is lower than 2016. PP PE prices are higher due to squeeze in US, from shut down of shale oil (which contributes about 20% of all natural gas in the US and key feedstock for their plastic plants there), and now the hurricane.

I think Q3 and Q4 will be record levels of earnings. Esp with the US ethylene plant contributions.

Yeah, alot of fund managers trauma in here, but come 31 Oct 2020 when results come out, it should seem much more optimistic.

wait for my full article this evening. Then you tell me if im too optimistic.


======
Posted by soros228 > Sep 25, 2020 12:01 PM | Report Abuse

chivo, so much profit ah? talking about 300 to 500 million, seems to be too opitimistic

For me, the target price is dynamic.

When my full article releases, and PP, PE and Butadiene prices shoot through the roof, it should increase to somewhere around RM2 to RM2.5 by 31 October 2020 as people anticipate the strong projected profits.

I’m being conservative on this one, as there are quite a few fund managers who have been traumatized by this company and want to get out.

This amount may be higher, if the telegram groups start promoting.

Personally, I’m projecting around RM600m or more for Q3, which is all time high quarterly profit, let’s say I’m wrong on this one, and its only RM350m.

Well, currently the market is pricing this company on a price to book basis, with the company not being worth much more than its cash, as most people still think this is some random petrochemical company that will suffer during this COVID, not one that will make record profits.

As the market may still think the profit may not be sustainable, it may only increase to RM3-RM3.5 post Q3 results, as people want more proof.

Now, im fairly certain Q4 will also be at least RM500m-RM600m in profits.

When this happens, suddenly, this company’s survival will no longer be in doubt, instead people will be thinking about all the expansion plans this company has.

They will think about the US associate contributing RM150m a quarter.

They will think about the Indonesia PP and PE plant which will grow revenue to RM25bil etc.

And then, suddenly, they want to price in the growth and maybe push it up higher to 10PE.

This is where it will go up to RM6.5 or more.

The most lucrative investment is one where people go from thinking it is dying (and thus valuing it on Price to Book Basis) and thinking it will now be making supernormal profits with strong potential for growth, and thus valuing it on a Price to Earnings Basis.

And I think LCTITAN is one of these stocks with a lot of catalyst upcoming.

Ofc, alot of things need to go right for it to reach RM6.5, but i think the odds are decent.

Morning Fabian,

I think its because its just a summary.

You may think differently when you get the full article. Email me for an early copy, and i suggest you buy another bucket first haha.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-09-25-story-h1514300426-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_LCTITAN_5284_Rising_ASP_s_Falling_Costs_Butadiene_Glove.jsp

Good luck, full piece will be out this weekend.

https://choivocapital.com/2018/11/28/an-analysis-of-time-dotcom-berhad-time/

In case some people may not know.

I wrote on this before back then.

Since then the profit have doubled, while share price maintain.

My thesis still stands, and i have rebought and held since 3 months ago. Good luck.