When go up, people ask me why never tell them sailang.
When go down, people ask me why never ask them sell early.

And up or down, i don't get any fees from people who buy after reading my post on i3 or my website.

This is human nature.

Lastly, i cannot use your brain for you.

Whether it is an investment or trade for YOU (This very specific person in this very specific scenario), YOU need to decide for yourself.

What is investment for me, may not be the same for you, because we have different understanding.

You must think for yourself.

WSK,

You read my lctitan piece, i got tell you investment meh?

As i wrote very clearly, i have not studied it enough to be an investment, and its a trade for me.

There is no rule saying that investment article must be 10k words and above, and trading article must be 1k words and below.

I like to do detailed research when i buy something, especially when its related to the markets and im buying in large amount.

You buy from RM1.8-RM1.9 onwards.

In the subsequent weeks it went up to RM2.7. If you lost money even under this scenario, i suggest you dont buy POS and go put in FD.

Because it looks like even if POS go up to RM2, and later drop to RM1.8

You will still somehow lose money, and then come and blame me.

Regardless of what your write about how you dont use POS LAJU etc (ie anecdotal/ personal experience), does not change one fundamental fact.

POSLAJU grow faster than GDEX in terms of 3 years, 5 years or 10 years.

Why leh?

Imaginary customers sent by syed mokhthar?

Now, with a 5 person telegram group. Clearly i must be the worst goreng artist in the world. And yet price still go up wor?

Even Lotte Chemicals Korea went up.

Why?

Because there is logic and facts in my research, that point towards high probabilities towards good outcomes.

Everybody here got brain, if there is no logic or truth in my notes, no one would follow listen.

Must be quite the gang if i can push a RM4 - 6billion company stock from RM1.8-RM2.7, against huge institutional pressure.

My group must have at least RM1 billion.

And these people, having push it all the way up there, would definitely have lost some money at 2.1 today.

But despite this, they still think i am god, and follow my every word right?

And follow me to POS and push it up from 775 till today.

This imaginary group that is filled with people with more than hundred million net worth, that listen to my every word.

Wah, i must be Syed Mokhtar in disguise, otherwise why they listen to me for?

Except when i check my telegram (which i don't bother to advertise or maintain), only got 5 people.

Must be the most elite of the goreng teams, don't have RM200m and above you cannot join right?

=======

Look, you can go about blaming people all you want, and ignore all the other market dynamics at play (foreign fund outflow, US elections etc), and ignore your own mistakes or flaws.

But i called at 1.8, and you had until 2.7 to sell. Even today still up by 15%.

Gross margins for LCTITAN still went up 40% for Q3, despite USD forex hitting due to USD falling 10% from Q2 to Q3.

Now i put out my research for POS, and im making a call at 905.

Buying and selling up to you, i bought from 775 to 935 and still holding.

If you want to go send stuff cheaply with tracking, what do you use?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-10-30-story-h1535540226-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_POS_4634_The_Next_Proton_Except_you_can_buy_it_directly.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-10-30-story-h1535540226-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_POS_4634_The_Next_Proton_Except_you_can_buy_it_directly.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-10-30-story-h1535540226-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_POS_4634_The_Next_Proton_Except_you_can_buy_it_directly.jsp

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-10-30-story-h1535539328-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_POS_4634_The_Next_Proton_Except_you_can_buy_it_directly.jsp

Read properly.

As i said, a lot of things need to go right. And these things consist of a series of probabilities.

One thing i've learnt, is that if we go through your investing or trading life, looking for people to blame when we lose money, or people to trust in order to make money.

Its likely better for us to stick to opening a business or keeping the money in FD.

Like everything in life, there is no free lunch. we have to put in the work and know it for ourselves.

If you did, you might have been able to identify the probability of the forex and the associate (which relied on natural gas) to impact earnings, and size your trade and target price appropriately.

I made my call at RM1.8.

And i never told anyone to chase high.

Not to be crass, but as no one here is paying me a fee, i am not obliged to hold your hand or give advice, other than out of natural goodwill.

Which i have done multiple times by commenting here, telling everyone to not chase high, and to think for yourself.

All the best.

====
Posted by InsiderShark > Oct 28, 2020 7:33 PM | Report Abuse

I thought choivo said can go all the way to RM6.50 in the article.

Remember. This is a trade. Not an investment. They are two very different things. Target Prices are dynamic.

I think the forex is only going to hit for this Quarter, because Q3 USD drop 10% vs MYR. Its staying relatively steady for Q4.

However, the US associate could still underperform given that they are reliant for natural gas given the shortage.

So if you think Naptha will continue to be low for a long time, and plastic prices will maintain, you can explore further. Do note you also have to think about how non packing plastic usage will impact PP and PE prices. LCTITAN supply is primarily for Malaysia.

I made a call at RM1.8, because i thought it was obviously a good trading opportunity.

Any price above that, and past that point in time, you guys have to sendiri pandai.

Sentiment for this stock now is koyak abit. However, sentiment is but a flip of a coin. People can swing from utter depression to absolute euphoria in a second.

We need to find our own answers as they are no free lunches. Especially in short to mid term trades.

Whether we made or lost money, either way, a lesson is learnt. I just hope that your lessons are not so painful. I did lose a little bit today from the position i rebought.

Good luck.

Still holding the position i rebuy.

===
soros228 Mana choivo?
27/10/2020 6:04 PM

For IPO that was so close to not being fully subscribed, DIY is holding up fairly well.

Lets see then.

Hahah SSLEE

zz i wanted to hentam kuat this morning at sub 2.2 but i was just too busy with work.

Hmm i bought again at 2.21 though.

I knew OTB from quite a long time before that. But we never talked much, because our styles is just so different.

bought back LCT, cleared queue at 2.21

The drop timing is same with YTD, i think it is FF selling to get out. US elections all coming etc.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/743369

I think i should be buying back in, Naptha prices still low, everyone seems too depressed, which does not make sense. Next q still going to be good.

October should be very profitable as well. I dont see naptha prices going up in November or Dec.

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/743369

If it stabilize, i might buy back tbh, it means FF selldown is likely over.

Lotte always paid out dividends, most efficient way to get money back to the holding co.

Lotte did have a lot of foreign funds flow into it due to positive news flow potential.

FF is probably one of the first to see the plastic news, and sell out quickly, esp with US elections coming.

Having said that, Q3 results still going to be good, i know demand for their resin is still very strong in China, and naphtha prices is low.

If it goes too low before Q3 and it seems too much of an overreaction, i may buy some back.

Target price is dynamic.

"When this article releases, and PP, PE and Butadiene prices shoot through the roof, it should increase to somewhere around RM2 to RM2.5 by 31 October 2020 as market now anticipate the strong projected profits."

@Aiden.

Nail on head. Do some maths, i works out from what i can see.

Also know, target price also depends on other opportunities at hand. Ytd i was looking at POS at 0.845, and i hentam.

Today im thinking of buying some LCTITAN, but have to re-evaluate the new facts, the new economic conditions malaysia and globally, malaysia and US politics, sentiment, etc etc.

https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-spot-pe-market-posts-first-price-decline-april

This loh.

posted this morning from plastics today.

Target price is dynamic.

For Trading,
Facts change, sentiment change, my thinking change, my mood change. Target price change.

For Investing,
Facts change, Intrinsic value change.

Which is LCTITAN?

https://www.plasticstoday.com/resin-pricing/weekly-resin-report-spot-pe-market-posts-first-price-decline-april

Anyway, this news just posted today, which might explain the drop.

Don't ask me, my information and yours is the same, what you see i can see.

At 1.80 i know can buy for me, now this part you all need make your own decision.

Who knows US elections and inability of both parties to work together and do another bailout might crash world markets again.

So many things to consider.

Sentiment is bad.

For some, this means buy more, for some it means sell more.

For some target price go up due to sentiment is bad, for others it goes down.

For some, they think bad sentiment will last 1 week, others 1 month, another group 2 months etc.

Then got so many factors like foreign funds buying etc etc.

End of the day you can only decide for yourself.

Up or down, you will learn something.

But key thing is, always take a sizing that you are comfortable with given your own ability to sleep at night, risk assessment, and risk reward.

Does sentiment change back? Will current sentiment last forever?

they signed the natural gas contract a long time ago, and its fixed at a low price.

So it should be pretty good also.

From what i heard, plastic resin buyers in malaysia is having trouble buying stock from Lotte now. because all the stock is going to china, who are offering premium.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/10/19/china039s-economic-recovery-quickens-in-3q

Looks like china is recovering very nicely. Obviously, this should be mainly for Q4 bah.

"In an early October call discussing a joint venture with Sasol, LyondellBasell Chief Executive Officer Bhavesh Patel said the oil-to-gas feedstock advantage is unlikely to go back to what it was in the heyday of 2014, when Brent crude-oil prices per barrel were about 40 to 50 times the price of Henry Hub natural gas per million British thermal units. The oil-to-gas price ratio is likely to hover around the 20s mark “very consistently,” according to Mr. Patel. Even when the absolute price of production is still cheaper for U.S. and Middle East-produced petrochemicals, one has to also take into account transportation costs to the importing countries, which can cost as much as 3-4 cents per pound between U.S. and Asia, according to Morgan Stanley.

This narrowing has already made a dent in U.S. producers’ income. Houston-based Westlake Chemical said its net income declined by $104 million in its second quarter compared with a year earlier partly because of the drop in oil prices. The new pricing dynamics could be one reason to take a look at Asian petrochemical companies, which have seen low valuations in recent years. According to Morgan Stanley estimates, Lotte Chemical, Sinopec Shanghai and Mitsui Chemicals all trade below 10 times expected 2021 earnings. LyondellBasell, Dow and Westlake all trade above that—with Westlake at 35 times."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-shakes-up-plastics-world-order-11602759601

Wall street journal also like Lotte liao.

I do wonder why pchem is not increasing as well, give that is a great business, and should post much better numbers this Q due to higher plastic prices.

Thanks guys. Based on the amount i'm holding, i obviously have alot of skin in game and think the odds are in my/our favor. But obviously, we need to do our own thinking, evaluation of expected value and risk management.

Target price is dynamic and different for everyone.

Cheers.

Hmm probably, the new 500kv line direct to cambodia via EDL means they can supply cambodia, i just wonder who collect on their behalf.

At only 75% efficiency so far, i think still got long way to go.

But man, we must really account for the possible risk something happen to EDL, which has increased somewhat.

l I agree it is guaranteed.

But here's the problem. The transmission lines now are connected only to EDL (unless im mistaken) and not to other providers as well. Which means that for now, only EDL can buy, no one else can buy from MFCB, for now.

Secondly, payments are in USD not Laotian Kip, if EDL no money, means no money, where to find USD?

Third, EDL already owes outside USD5bil.

I would keep track on the receivables if i were you.

Unless ofc, the transmission lines can sell to Cambodia directly, and the amounts paid by Cambodia goes direct to MFCB pocket.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/2020-10-18-story-h1534705083-_CHOIVO_CAPITAL_LCTITAN_5284_An_Update_on_Naptha_Polyolefin_Butadiene_P.jsp

I really like MFCB, but fitch just downgraded Laos from B- to CCC

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-laos-to-ccc-23-09-2020

"In addition, the state-owned electricity company, Electricite du Lao (EDL), appears to be coming under increasing financial pressure due a rapid increase in debt-financed investment and near-term cash flow issues resulting from a drought over the past year which weighed on electricity production. Outstanding debt of EDL is about USD5 billion (26% of GDP), as advised by the authorities, much of which consists of on-lending from the government. EDL poses contingent liability risk for the government if EDL is unable to meet its external debt service obligations."

EDL is the guy working with MFCB and paying MFCB for the electricity. If Laos can no longer buy from MFCB (and this is assuming no doubtful debts), can MFCB sell to other countries like vietnam etc fast enough? is the transmission lines for those built up d?

Haha i dont have this buy sell skill.

Usually if i decide to trade and sell, i might forget to buy, or dont buy as much.

All i know is record profit coming, and next week got good chance to go up also. I dont want to miss it.

Yeap, we need to be aware of sentiment and the story, if it still holds.

This one everyone here have to sendiri smart and think for themselves.

=====
Posted by thirdproperty > Oct 15, 2020 7:04 PM | Report Abuse

..but proviso..sentiment goes up and down easily la..

Ask yourself, who buying today? Ikan bilis like us from i3?

Last two days, the order sizes so big, one order is 500k shares and above. Today the order is more than 1m shares in one go.

The amount of private individuals who can do this in i3 is less than 100, and a good portion of them are my friends (or friends of friends, rich traders/investors know each other one mah) who bought at 1.8-2.1.

This is funds, unit trusts etc.

Fund people do up their report, share with investment committee, ding dong for a 1-2 weeks, now got approval d, and results also coming out in 2 weeks and everyday read about hurricane.

They go see spread spread and plastic prices on their bloomberg machines, still up wor, some types even higher

Mai whack starting position first loh.

Now im sure in the approval they get, they can only buy a certain amount, the rest must buy only if good profit is shown.

If profit more than RM300m or even RM500m got very good chance will go up alot, because now these funds can take up maximum position.

If these funds start taking up positions and thus push price up, wah everyone mai more happy loh, buy even more, facebook sifu everyday do facebook live then, everyone hoot 9.

You want wait for then only buy?

No mah, best time to buy was when i write my article around RM1.85 (my cost around RM1.85-RM1.9 after i avg up). Second best time to buy, is before funds buy, which is RM2-RM2.3.

Third best time to buy is, before results come out and funds can hoot 9, and facebook sifu start doing fb live and smoke cigar in front of you. Which is around now loh.

Im not telling you to buy, take what you want from it. but im still holding.

Jibbie,

Still got long way to go, i think you sold just when sentiment is starting to turn.

I think before results out RM3 is possible, if its you guys estimates of RM200-300m, maybe RM3.2 etc. I think it will be more than RM300m, which case should hit RM3.5. If my best case hits, ie RM500-600m. RM4.5.

New CMCO equals no more dine in for restaurants. This means more delivery and tapau's, which will increase plastic usage and maintain PP and PE prices.

Explains why there is a spike to 2.32 this afternoon.

Probability.

Timecom, Opensys, RCECAP leh?

goody99,

LCTITAN keeps about 1 month worth of Naptha in their books, which means in Q2, they had bought naptha at higher price from late feb to march, and are still in the books, which needed to be sold at a lower price during the dip in PP and PE prices in April and May.

There is naturally some stockholding/selling loss there.

From Q3 onwards, LCTITAN got Naptha at the lowest or lower cost, while selling PP and PE at 2019 prices or higher