pputeh, you are welcome
-----------------
pputeh Just take off my hat to you, DK66 in being so patient explaining the nitty gritty of this power project its financing payback terms and returns. Much obliged and thank you.
16/01/2020 10:08 PM

No, as far as JHDP, the power plant owner, is concerned, it paid for the entire project cost. The construction profit goes to the contractors which happened to be the owners of JHDP.

In Jaks case, Jaks reinvested the expected construction profit of about RM440m into JHDP as capital contribution for its 30% equity.

Had jaks not being a contractor to the project, the construction profit would have been earned by another party. Therefore, Jaks being a contractor of its own project does not change the dynamic of the cost structure of the project.

Jaks is actually delivering 3 services here;

1. constructing the power plant - earn construction profit
2. Lend money to Vietnam government for the power plant - earn interest income
3. Operating the power plant - earn sales revenue

Therefore, construction profit should not be deducted from the project cost.

--------------------------
ok dear dk66,
i remember i saw someone saying in this forum that the construction profit have to take out from the project cost. is it reasonable?
16/01/2020 10:02 PM

ok, you are correct except the part below

"IRR is use to determine payback period which it takes 8 years to recoup project cost if the project can provide 12% annual return excluding the finance cost."

IRR and PAYBACK PERIOD are 2 different evaluation methods.

IRR is used to determine the rate of return where NPV of all cash inflows and outflows equal 0. The IRR is then compared to the cost of capital to make investment decision.

Payback period is the number of year it takes for the project to generate enough cash inflows to cover all initial cash outflows.

Oops, hng33 withdrew his questions ??

hng33,

Payback period is always on project basis otherwise it is meaningless. I don't know of any large project fully funded by cash.

First of all, the 20% IRR on Jordan IPP is merely derived from "mid-teens and assume 5% IRR on shale oil mining".

Secondly, the guidance from Yeoh is not clear whether the mid-teens IRR of the IPP is on the total project cost or only the portion pertaining to the power plant. Power plant and shale oil mining are clearly two independent projects.

Thirdly, Jordan IPP has 30 years concession compared to JHDP's 25 years concession.

Fourthly, Jordan has 15 years repayment period starting from the date of construction compared to JHDP's 18 years repayment period from COD.

Finally, 11 years to fully settle debts does not mean PAYBACK period of 11 years.


----------------------------------
hng33 Hi DK66

Another thing wish for clarification is that jaks payback time is 8year is based on its equity portion or entire cost project? May i know whether the payback time 8 year is refer to total cost investment RM 7.5 billion or refer to equity portion only RM 1.88billion.

According to YTLP, Jordan have IRR of 20% still need payback time 11 year, why, jaks have IRR 12% only need 8 year payback time? May i know how long is jaks power plant debt tenure.

In YTLP, jordan power plant only have 15 year debt tenure including 4 year construction period, and YTLP able to use 11 year profit to fully settle entire debt borrowing and enjoy free cash for remaining 19 year concession



Another question is that, YTLP IRR 20% generate profit US 47m or RM 193m, but why jaks IRR 12% able to generate profit RM 280-380m ?

The IRR should be based on total cost of investment in the power plant, in which YTLP cost is at USD 2.1 billion, higher than Jaks 1.87 billion cost.

ok, thanks for explaining

my email is i3dk66@gmail.com

I think more like;

YTL - 小刀据小树
MFCB 大刀据大树;
Jaks 小刀据大树

just a joke

Hng33, I have seen many project evaluation reports and none assume projects are funded by cash in their IRR evaluations. All costs inclusive of interest expenses must be taken into consideration in IRR evaluation.

The IRR is then compared against Cost of capital to arrive at investment decisions.

We must remember that we are investing in Jaks and not directly in JHDP and likewise, we are buying YTLP and not directly into jordan Ipp.

We must evaluate the potential of the IPP against the price we paid for Jaks or YTLP.

Hng33, for discussion purposes, how much is YTLP worth based on EPS of 4.6 cents ?
and how much EPS to Jaks is translated from Net IRR of 5% ?

Overall, how much do you think Jaks is worth from its JHDP ?

-----------------------------
Jordan need to generate cash flow at least USD 200m per year to repay back ALL cost of investment funding USD 2.1 billion, it is whopping of the USD 200m profit or RM 820m per year. YTLP 45% stake translate into RM 370m per year or additional EPS = 4.6sen

Jaks 12% internal rate return give rise to NET INTERNAL RATE RETURN 12% - bank interest charge - operation expense = NET internal rate return 5%
16/01/2020 3:32 PM

There is no such thing as NET IRR. When you evaluate a project it is always the PORJECT IRR and EQUITY IRR that is being considered. These IRR are calculated on net all basis inclusive of all costs including interest expense.

Human, you are welcome

-----------------------------
human I brought Jaks with average price of 1.7 and still waiting for the power plant to materialized.

DK66 contribute the most to this counter with personal studies and quality blogs.

His quality posting make my decision to wait for power plant to materialized much easier, sincerely thanks DK66.

Continue the good works.
16/01/2020 8:52 AM

VIN3133 is right. Nobody except you will lose out on the opportunity if you refuse to even find out the truth.

There is sufficient information on Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant. All it takes is some of your time to go through the information.

Why ask questions like "what about mudajaya?", "why kyy sold?", etc. If you have already made up your mind not to invest because of mudajaya and kyy, then don't force yourself into it.

If you are truly interested in Jaks, then do some readings. I spent great amount of time writing over 20 articles on Jaks Hai Duong power plant. They are free for you. All you have to do is read and decide. If you still have doubts, ask and I will try my best to answer.

Ha ha, life is short. Must enjoy timely.

Jaks will skyrocket with or without me. I can't influence its price but its price will influence my future. I believe some IBs are buying today. That's why the price shot up.

No worries!

----------------------
OTB Dear DK66,

I suggest you cannot go for tour until the share price of Jaks hit the target. Please tolerate for a year or two.
After you come back from tour, the share price of Jaks skyrockets up the roof.
Please help us lah !!
Thank you.
15/01/2020 9:00 PM

Henry8833, gndthx, pjseow, you are all welcome

Sooncy8, you are welcome

Even those who bought at Rm1.84 and took up the warrant is making profit now;

1.84 x 2 + 0.25 =RM3.93

now;

1.39 x 2 +1.17 = RM3.95

leapkcfy, you are welcome

Looks like IBs are showing interest today.

stockwin, you are welcome

----------------------
stockwin Thank you DK66, OTB and co, Jaks on a roll now.
15/01/2020 5:04 PM

OTB, you are welcome

-------------
OTB We make money in Jaks, special thanks to DK66 for his hard work.
I buy Jaks because I believe in DK66's report.
Thank you DK66.
15/01/2020 4:16 PM

It is great to hear that IBs are beginning to show interests in Jaks Hai Duong power plant.

goldmind, you are welcome

I will ask my family to buy as they trust my sincerity and won't blame me if things turned out the other way.

However, I won't do it in i3 as I m not obligated to them neither are them to me.

Thank you.

------------------
goldmind Hi DK, thanks for your advice. If put it in this way, If I were your brother, I asked you whether i can buy, what would you answer? If i were your brother.
15/01/2020 2:14 PM

goldmind, I repost my previous comment.

-----------------------------
DK66 Some have questioned why I m not buying at current price.

I bought Jaks as high as 1.40 more than 2 years ago even when the power plant has only started to lay foundations and I continued to average down when the price dropped to 0.405.

It seems that I bought too early at 1.40. However, if I had no confidence to buy then would I have the confidence to average down ? I used up my investment funds to buy the final portion at 0.43 and I couldn't buy anymore when I saw the price at 0.405.

I advised readers to buy when the price was below 0.50 and 0.80. Some did and I presumed many didn't. I m not surprised because even Sslee was hesitating and deterred by poor management records. Only until OTB advised his followers to take positions in Jaks around 0.82, the interest in Jaks started to show up and the price shot up to 1.43. Many would think this is momentary impulse and fail to see that it is due to the power plant going online soon.

Sslee was worried that I made readers chase high, so I promised him that would be my last call below 0.80. I made a strong statement then; "Either you buy now or you don't buy at all". I intend to keep that promise. I won't make anymore buy calls but I will update my target price when new information unfold.

Therefore, you have to seek advice from other sifus or your remisiers on your decisions.

For your information, Sslee has just included Jaks in his picks for 2020. I m glad that he is finally convinced and I believe he will share his research on Jaks.

Thank you
25/12/2019 11:03 AM

dailyklse2010, you are right. Power supply independence is an important consideration.

Ricky Kiat, Thanks for your first like

Jaks Resources - Hydro power no longer cheaper than Coal power to Vietnam

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-01-15-story-h1482158721-Jaks_Resources_Hydro_power_no_longer_cheaper_than_Coal_power_to_Vietnam.jsp

1月1日，越南海阳2×600MW燃煤电厂1号机组1号锅炉酸洗工作圆满完成，标志着又一个重大的节点顺利实现，并为下一步的锅炉点火吹管、机组整套启动奠定了坚实的基础。
　　锅炉酸洗工作是机组整套启动前的一项重要工作，锅炉酸洗的主要目的是通过酸洗，清洗出锅炉水系统管道在制造、运输和安装过程中残留的外来污染物和氧化物质，除去锅炉蒸发受热面内铁锈、焊渣、泥砂等杂物，提高系统的清洁度，缩短新机启动到正常运行之间的时间等，并在金属表面形成致密的保护膜，减缓热力设备的腐蚀，从而保证水汽品质，以利于今后机组安全、经济、正常运行。
　　整个酸洗阶段中，各方共同见证，经严格质量检验，清洗质量符合要求，腐蚀量、腐蚀速率、残余垢量等各项指标都达到优良标准。

On January 1, the Chemical cleaning of No. 1 boiler of Unit 1 of 2 × 600MW coal-fired power plant in Hai Duong, Vietnam was successfully completed, marking the successful completion of another major milestone, and laying the foundation for the next boiler ignition and steam blow test

Boiler chemical cleaning is an important work before the start-up of the unit. The main purpose is to clean out the external pollutants and oxidizing substances remaining in the boiler water system pipes during the manufacturing and installation.

1月9日，越南海阳2×600MW燃煤电厂2号机组2号锅炉电除尘器进口烟道开始安装。
电除尘器进口烟道安装位置在锅炉钢架与电除尘之间，烟道从空预器烟气侧引出，分两路引至静电除尘器入口。该烟道总计重量为91.7吨，采取多件吊装高空组合方式。吊装前，项目部安排相关部门人员对起吊吊耳、钢丝绳、卸扣等起吊设施进行全面检查，对安装作业容易出现的危险环境因素进行分析，编制了合理的预防措施。吊装过程中，为最大限度减小由于交叉施工作业带来的影响，相关部门人员对安装作业的关键点进行了重点监控。

On January 9th, the installation of the imported flue of No. 2 boiler of the 2 × 600MW coal-fired power plant in Hai Duong, Vietnam, began.

The installation position of the inlet flue of the electric precipitator is between the steel frame of the boiler and the electric precipitator. The flue is led out from the flue gas side of the air pre-heater, and is divided into the electrostatic precipitator inlet in two ways. The total weight of the flue is 91.7 tons, and it adopts a combination of multiple lifting heights. Before hoisting, the project department arranged personnel of relevant departments to conduct a comprehensive inspection of lifting facilities such as lifting ears, wire ropes, shackles, etc., analyzed the dangerous environmental factors prone to installation operations, and formulated reasonable preventive measures. During the hoisting process, in order to minimize the impact caused by the cross-construction operation, the personnel of relevant departments carried out key monitoring on the key points of the installation operation.

Dear OTB,

8.686b KwH was the gross output generated by Vinh Tan 1 power plant.
8.194b KwH was the NET output after deducting electricity used as auxiliary consumption (self consumption).

Sales to national grid is based on Net output.

Yes, both Jaks Hai Duong and Vinh Tan 1 are chinese technology while mong duong II is American technology.


--------------------------------------
OTB DK66,
I just read the below link.
https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/102531099
The first phase of Yongxin's (Vinh Tan1) first year of production has reached 8.686 billion kWh.

Will Hai Duong power plant able to deliver 8.686 billion kwh ?
If the capacity is 8.686 kwh, based on your report
Jaks owns 30% stake,
8.094 billion kwh = RM310 million.
8.686 billion kwh = RM 310/8.094*8.686 = RM 332 million.

I believe Vinh Tan 1 and Hai Duong are having the same technology from CPECC, Hence the yearly profit is RM 332 million which is higher than RM 250 million I projected.

Please enlighten me on your finding.

Thank you.
14/01/2020 10:47 PM

OTB Dear DK66,

I believe Vinh Tan 1 able to produce 8.686 kwh because the annual utilization hours were 7,238 hours whereas you use annual utilization hours were 6,500 hours for Hai Duong to compute your projection of 8.094 kwh.

I believe if the technology are the same from CPECC, Hai Duong also able to produce 8.686 kwh. I believe the annual utilization hours were 7,238 hours for Hai Duong power plant too.

Thank you.
14/01/2020 11:00 PM

VIN3133, you are welcome

1月1日，越南海阳2×600MW燃煤电厂1号机组1号锅炉酸洗工作圆满完成，标志着又一个重大的节点顺利实现，并为下一步的锅炉点火吹管、机组整套启动奠定了坚实的基础。
　　锅炉酸洗工作是机组整套启动前的一项重要工作，锅炉酸洗的主要目的是通过酸洗，清洗出锅炉水系统管道在制造、运输和安装过程中残留的外来污染物和氧化物质，除去锅炉蒸发受热面内铁锈、焊渣、泥砂等杂物，提高系统的清洁度，缩短新机启动到正常运行之间的时间等，并在金属表面形成致密的保护膜，减缓热力设备的腐蚀，从而保证水汽品质，以利于今后机组安全、经济、正常运行。
　　为了确保酸洗工作顺利进行，项目部提前策划，科学部署，在具备酸洗条件后迅速组织专业增开夜班安装酸洗管道，同时多次组织热动专业科进行酸洗前专项检查，组织清洗公司与相关专业多次召开酸洗专题会，组织各专业技术人员编制了详细的酸洗计划和方案措施，对化学清洗操作步骤、清洗流程、安全组织措施、职业健康风险控制措施等均做了详细规定，并制作了酸洗流程图及安全文明施工注意事项张贴现场。项目部编制值班表，采取2班制实行24小时连班作业深度参与酸洗全过程，协调外部条件，安排专人操作正式系统，防止误操作，加强监督与检查，确保酸洗工作安全有序进行。
　　整个酸洗阶段中，各方共同见证，经严格质量检验，清洗质量符合要求，腐蚀量、腐蚀速率、残余垢量等各项指标都达到优良标准。

1月9日，越南海阳2×600MW燃煤电厂2号机组2号锅炉电除尘器进口烟道开始安装。
电除尘器进口烟道安装位置在锅炉钢架与电除尘之间，烟道从空预器烟气侧引出，分两路引至静电除尘器入口。该烟道总计重量为91.7吨，采取多件吊装高空组合方式。吊装前，项目部安排相关部门人员对起吊吊耳、钢丝绳、卸扣等起吊设施进行全面检查，对安装作业容易出现的危险环境因素进行分析，编制了合理的预防措施。吊装过程中，为最大限度减小由于交叉施工作业带来的影响，相关部门人员对安装作业的关键点进行了重点监控。

Good try

--------------
Posted by Anon > Jan 10, 2020 12:02 PM | Report Abuse

I heard DK66 unload all his share

War also favours safe haven assets. IPP is definitely one of those.

Short note: war will strengthen USD and oil prices. Both are in favour of Jaks.

Naysayers better work harder and faster while I m on holiday.

I m on holiday now. Shall try my best to answer all queries later. Thank you.

Dear OTB, noted

I never claimed I know Jaks 100%. If anyone think I m dishonest, just prove it. No need to beat around the bush.

Not aware of such condition
-----------------
ok Is capital contribution must be provided before Power plant COD?

human, what do you mean by "Unit 2 not likely 2020 if not in power grid plan. Whether Unit 2 can sell to the grid will depend on how project owner talk with grid owner." ?

The PPA was signed for the entire power plant.

-------------------
human
Unit 1 already in 2020 power grid contingent so if no hiccup electrical selling should be in 2020,
while Unit 2 not likely 2020 if not in power grid plan.

Whether Unit 2 can sell to the grid will depend on how project owner talk with grid owner.
03/01/2020 8:53 PM

Then, why don't you tell the honest answer to everyone here ?

-----------------
MCA_ Dishonest answer. No wonder drop 4 sen just like PH dishonesty to win GE14.

I m prepared to be criticised if my TP is far from reach in future. I have no fear. However, I don't give blank TP. I supported my TP with mathematical derivations and independently verified information. If future events unfold and warrant reconsideration, I will responsibly inform all readers.

No one will condemn anyone for giving RM0.50 TP if one could properly provide credible rationale for his believes. Why make comments in public forum if one fear to be criticised. Time will prove your credibility.

I faced attacks when I first recommended Jaks at RM0.50 but time has proven my sincerity. If one dares not give a TP why continuously asking people to sell ? Sell till what price ?

Dear Henry8833,

To be honest, once connected to the national grid, electricity generated during testing phase are supplied to the grid. Based on my knowledge on MFCB's Don Sahong hydropower, test phase electricity were sold for $$. However, I m unsure about Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant.

-------------------------
Henry8833 Dear Sifu DK and Probability, per Post by probability > Jan 1, 2020 9:33 PM, it seems to me that by March 2020, the No 1 generator will be able to generate electricity. Such electricity will be sold or go to national grid and start generating income $$ in March 2020 or have to wait till May 2020? Thanks
03/01/2020 7:02 PM

Ks55, I have already made known my cost and TP. Nevermind if you are unwilling to reveal your TP

I believe it is the other way round. How much Star owes Jaks ?
------------------
MCA_ DK66 answer first how much Jaks owe Star if you are honest.

Samheong78, ok nevermind

------------------
samheong78 DK66, there are just too many variables for anyone to determine the long term target. People just keep revising the target price from time to time. For now, the target price has already reached. But may revise for higher target price if earning keep increasing. So now can only go sideway, or slightly downside bias
03/01/2020 4:38 PM