How come he write better than the pros in investment houses?

Even the analyst community has underestimated Scientex.

Lots of investors sold the share when a lot of the profits came from property development. But Scientex has turned a negative into a positive.

That is why I wrote also turning negative into positive.

The difference is in the details. Scientex did it well. Others could not do both well .

Scientex did not neglect its core business. It's core business continued to grow exponentially. ....it has excess cash. They can return all the excess cash to shareholders or they can find another business to invest in. They choose property development.

Most of the time, investor will sell the share, just like you. But Scientex did it so well, it becomes their strength now. That is the message in this write up.

The difference is sorely due to the competence of the management team.


There are many theorists who think a company should stay focused on what they do . Investors can do their own diversifications. But, in this case, Scientex choose to diversify and go the conglomerate route. You must remember Malaysia is a very small country. If they don't diversify , they will always remain a small and medium sized company.

Diversification is the only option left for a Board that wants to have double digit growth for 10 , 20 , 30 years.........I remain optimistic for the future of Scientex years down the road.....they will be able to find other ways to expand and be a true giant

scientex....700 lots up 60 sen.
tomorrow, 1000 lots, down 60 sen, then how?

I am not suggesting a buy.

I am just saying this stock this company is so fantastic..............if by July oil price is US$30, Scientex will be $ 7.50 ex all.

buy AAX and stay healthy.

if the trend is lower oil prices and stronger ringgit..then it is AAX. as the one with the highest beta,.

if it doesn't work, then debit is to insurance policy as portfolio strategy.

eps 50c, pe 6 price $ 3.

that is likely.

as he says, the dividend yield is higher than the bank can give.

For a rich man, why worry, just be happy.
==================================================

osted by pisanggoreng > Mar 22, 2016 03:07 PM | Report Abuse

do not forget flbhd is one of kyy favor, it is one of the counters in his 2016 stocks competition.

this counter was used to be quiet, not much movement with good fundamental and big MOS.
when kyy came into the scene, the price was pushed up by his substantial buy and joined by short term players rushing in for fast gain . now he is facing force selling with the price dropped about 30% from peak.

but do not underestimate kyy, he is not ordinary, he is a man with BIG ego,
do you think he can accept the fact he can lose badly in the competition? can not even beat a nobody ah kau in the competition by the end of the year.

I strongly believe, even though ringgit strengthens, the most it can go ,will not be less than 3.8 by the end of the year,at this rate, it is still high compare with before and will still bring in good profit for the company and good dividend for the shareholders.

so what to worry if you can hold, moreover you are receiving income better then the bank can give you, while waiting for a capital gain of around 20% to 30% or even more by the end of the year 2016.

this is my dream. we must have a dream to drive through the difficult period of no capital gain and paper loss

CS and PA are indeed arbitragers.

no hope already.

sold all my warrants.

CS and PA are indeed arbitragers.

no hope already.

sold all my warrants.

CS and PA are indeed arbitragers.

no hope already.

sold all my warrants.

it depends.....it always depends.

However, if oil down to US$30......I can tell you Scientex will be $ 7.50 ex all. 15 cum all.






leslieroycarter all the good news r out ....buy or sell?

the one and only scientex in malaysia.

ringgit breaks 4....buy aax

$12 share do bonus la...

who wants to work so hard?


seeker > Mar 22, 2016 08:57 AM | Report Abuse

can somebody explain why the selection of liquidator would need to take so long?!

but the g for every company is different.

All stock are expected to give 15% annual return .....what is that?
share price? PBT? PAT? dividend?

*Valuation based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model with 12% annual discount rate and 25% margin of safety (Level of valuation : Highly conservative)

*All stock are expected to give 15% annual return

=============



but if you use the same methodology on all the stocks, you will find these are not the only stocks to be highlighted.


we end up with sampling bias.

more people convinced the resolution will be passed.

if the YES is defeated, CS and PA are no longer dissenting shareholders, there are the ones who put the Company into liquidation....1 to 2 years wait la.



Michael Teng > Mar 21, 2016 07:43 PM | Report Abuse

1. CS and PA are yield investors , holding 20% of SONA shares

I like KYY style.....in the pursue of simplicity.

At the age of 83, settle on the simplest 1 rule and one formula to rule them all.

that is where you get conviction. From great convictions, you get great profits when you are right....and margin to the max.

That's call conviction. No fickle minded yes no yes no ratios.


Die die la...that is how all self made tycoons are .

All share prices have two components...the valuation of existing business and the X factor.

all the 10 formulas and 20 ratios derived from the accounts will only give you one aspect of the share. All the number crunchings are subject to the Law of garbage In, garbage Out.

How can you hope to get a proper picture of the share if all the attention is on the 10 formulas and 20 ratios you are trying to peddle?

The X factor for Scientex is that it has the best management and best strategy in Malaysia. How much is that worth?
easily $ 15 this year.
both Scientex and Top Glove have many satisfied shareholders.

but Scientex is on the way to be a top conglomerate with little competition while Top Glove will remain subject to the fortunes of his industry and intense competition.

stock picking is not just about number crunching....its about strategies and strategic management and about the X factors.


all share prices have 2 components...the existing business plus the X factor. You have to try your best to value the X factor by discounting it backwards for its future growth.

Kc....you have heard of strong profits weak cash flow.....cannot buy according to you.

Have you heard of strong cash flow weak profits? can buy?

Coastal will have strong cash flows weak profits this year....can buy?

Coastal has 1 billion inventories of generic boats, another 1 billion of designed to order contracts.

In view of market conditions, their contracts will have thin margins and they intend to dispose of their inventories at low to negative margins just to get rid of the inventories.....They will have two billion dollars cash flows , very weak profits.......can buy?

refunding of funds from a failed spac is still a big grey area


no precedent.

the circular is clear about dissenting shareholders......not clear about a Yes vote being defeated/.....I think those arbitragers and yield investors will have to wait 2 years if the Yes vote is defeated.

X

the quote refers to reversing decisions....like selling a share after it was bought.


There is great wisdom in the quote. If you don't think so , its not my business.

Just wants to share some trueism. and great observations.

not the same plane.

I think a person can be fast and good in making decisions ( successful) or he is fickle minded ( not so successful). He can't be both.

Andy Andrews > Quotes > Quotable Quote
Andy Andrews
“Successful people make their decisions quickly and change their minds slowly. Failures make their decisions slowly and change their minds quickly.”


― Andy Andrews, The Traveler's Gift: Seven Decisions that Determine Personal Success



you go and ask Andy Andrews but I think he makes sense.

This is a quote from Tony Robbins....FYI, beebee.

Successful people are quick to make decisions ( I include KYY in the category of successful people) slow to reverse decisions made.

Successful people have a bad habit they have to watch out for. They loath, hate to change decisions as doing that is an attack on their ego. ...in the stock market, this can be very painful.

For common people, we have to push them to make decisions,

For KYY, we have to push them before they can reverse their decisions.

pros and cons...very important. That tests the analytic abilities.

all share prices have two components....valuation of existing business plus the X factors.
X factors can be positive or negatives, it is market's valuation of the Company's growth or negative growth discounted backwards.

everyone should pay equal attention to the X factors, not just the results announced.

in my experience, Japan has always been our largest importer of plywood.

This Company managed to break into the US market. It is surely a plus for them and their competence and a credit to them.

I am not bearish on the share. Just pointing out some obvious points.

sawmilling and plywood...the most basic of all industries when a developing country starts to industrialize.

when prices are good, they mushroom all over the world.

when prices bad, they all die.

Has been like that for a 100 years. no change.

ROCE is profits divide by assets employed.
High ROCE means high profits for every $ employed.

it reflects the fact that is a very neat and simple operation.

problem with this kind of company...what happens after 1 or 2 good years?

it will be the same sawmill, with the same machineries and subject to the same limiting factors such as raw logs and market conditions.

has there been any transformational change? what steps taken to put the company to the next level? expansion plans? steps taken to reduce the company risks and fluctuations?


we call that, the negative X factors that quickly come to people's mind when share price drop until no logic.

when the share price drop until it has no logic, the return on average capital employed is 25%,
the X factor of the company has become negative, it is time for the Company to issue some clarifications.

goreng....not everyone is satisfied with mediocre performance.

what do you call deniers of X factor?



"A head full of dew water"?

stock picking is not just about number crunching....its about strategies and strategic management and about the X factors.

both Scientex and Top Glove have many satisfied shareholders.

but Scientex is on the way to be a top conglomerate with little competition while Top Glove will remain subject to the fortunes of his industry and intense competition.

Peter Diamandis: Elon Musk deserves his success because he risked everything

learn to take risk, confront risk , manage risk. including margin accounts.

a famous i3 member famously posted about margin calls..........

but margin call is not the end of the world, he is still up a few hundred percent at the point of margin call...puzzled?

The X factor for Scientex is that it has the best management and best strategy in Malaysia. How much is that much?

easily $ 15 this year.

The X factor for Scientex is that it has the best management and best strategy in Malaysia. How much is that much?

Posted by latjiu > Mar 19, 2016 08:26 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Kcchongnz, is Scientx worth the current price tag? It's CY has dropped but profit margin has improved for 1Q2016.

don't scare people.
the provision for abandonment comes with assets and properties worth $523 million. It is fully provided for .

see pg 111

but....which OG stock in Malaysia is well managed?


got meh?

I belong to the group that think oil cannot sustain at $ 40 and will soon drop to $ 30.

The oil rally won't last, and we could see panic selling to $32/barrel: Strategist



http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-oil-rally-won-t-last-and-we-could-see-panic-selling-to--32-barrel--strategist-162358558.html

No one goes bankrupt following Calvin.

Get stuck in dead shares , maybe, but not bankrupt.

Missing out on all the action, maybe.

Like getting stuck with an ugly maid when all the pretty girls are in the party.

All share prices have two components.

I call it the two factor model .

it is intrinsic valuation of existing business plus X factor.

It is the valuation of the X factor that people have to put equal if not more attention than the valuation of existing business.

plane...my intended competition portfolio is -1.3%...that would made me 19 and you 20.

risk management......risk management is done by adjusting the amount bot and the diversification appropriate at the moment not by avoiding margin all together.

no ever become a tycoon without facing risks.