haha.. sorchai CKCS.... I am more than happy to look at its current price now... added more at 1.17 & 1.18.... I still keep bullets to buy more if it drops further...

haha... AKUMAUKAYA... u finally found out the real identity of CKCS....

we cannot predict a share price movement for short term.. but for long term, it is easier to predict (i said easier, not 100%).. but that is with calculated and lower risk, and you know what u r doing...

ColdEye, KCChong and many more value investing sifus said: if you cannot expect to hold a good share for more than 3 years... you should not even invest in it in the first place...

many speculators want to make big profit within a day, or a few days.. some better, a few weeks or a few months...
based on my own experience... holding for more than a year to 2 to 3 years sometimes give you better return in long run... i have experienced 200 to 500% of return on fundamentally good shares to fully realize its value...

instead of betting on short term, I sleep well every night... less trades are good, it saves your transaction costs too...
otherwise, your remisier may earn more money than you do (regardless u earn or lose money betting/speculating, ur remisier still earns money from you)...

haha... it is really funny to see some jokers (perhaps some of them are the same person with different IDs) talk nonsense here without a solid fact supported by fundamentals, such as.. yesterday up so much, today drop so much.. bla bla bla... going holland.. next quarter will be bad etc...


everyone becomes "prediction master" with a crystal ball in front of them....

haha... massive debt? with net gearing ratio of only about 4%.... funny... super funny....
what is the equity of Evergreen? And more importantly.. most of these equities are real fixed assets like plants and equipments...

Hi KC.
Appreciate if you could share with us how you calculate the intrinsic value of Zhulian & OKA.
For these 2 shares particularly, did you base on DCF or DDM?

Please share with us your calculation so that we can understand your assumptions in the parameters used as well.

Thanks again for your good sharing

oh no... joker is back and puts up his clown show... i3 admin, please ban him forever... thanks...
track down his MAC / IP address, etc. so that he can't create new IDs to spam the forums... thanks.

some clown is back in action, after being banned for abusive and manipulated words used to mislead investors... i would suggest i3 admin to permanently ban him and track down his MAC / IP addresses etc so that he cannot create new ID to spam the forums..

Thanks Skliew for the additional useful info.

if u would like to understand more on the differences betweens knits and wovens:

http://www.threadsmagazine.com/item/5152/knits-wovens-whats-the-difference

hat-tip to SKliew on the good insight.. that is what a real fundamental investor is doing - a lot of research and homework... and know what you are doing and be confident in what you are investing...
temporary/short-term negative movements is not something value investor should be worried at..

just to add one more note to it..

as you can see, the advertisement date is July 23rd... just imagine, if the management is anticipating the sales to be dampened for long term, will they even proceed (as planned) to expand?
We have seen some companies who put the expansion plan on-hold due to foreseen slowdown..

having said so, we can kind of anticipate that their sales are still on uptrend in long term.. that is why they moving forward as planned...

just my 2 cents...

haha... well said Chong Jiunn Hau... the joker CKCS is now hiding in a cave..

haha.. glad to see the joker + manipulator CKCS is gone (at least for some time)...
he is full of nonsense and never wanted to admit he is wrong, even though many of us proved him wrong... sigh... loser like this always want to win and will never learn/improve... feel sad for him...

Yoon Yeap Lower, the answer is yes and no...

Like i mentioned before, it is not as easy as a new hawker getting into a pasar malam to start selling. Nike, Under Armour, Asics, etc big shots are very stringent and particular in auditing their suppliers. You have to meet a certain criteria in order to be qualified as one of their approved vendors. One of the quality criteria is the "defect/reject rate"... so far Prlexus has outperformed and has much lower "defect rate" than what is being required.

However, it is not to say for 100% that they cannot be replaced. To be fair, there is such a possibility too but in common sense, if Prlexus can offer reasonable pricing and meet quality & delivery leadtime to Nike, UA & Asics, etc, there is no reason for them to change suddenly. Unless there is a prominent new supplier who can quote at a much lower price (that is significant enough to Nike, UA, Asics). Let's examine if this is possible? If you look at the profit margin of this apparel industry (I am talking about contract manufacturing that Prlexus and Magni do, not the business that Nike, UA, etc is doing), it is not really fat.
Magni has more profit because their revenue is also 2-3 times higher (I believe their profit margin should be similar, correct me if I am wrong)...

So it is unlikely to see a new player who can quote much lower and still make a profit.
If there is, Nike, etc would have already engaged with them much earlier...

just my 2 cents.. I hope it helps...

well said ragingharrypotato...

In general, if you really adopt value investing:

1) yes, we need patience. But that is the patience to wait for good company to trade at discounted/undervalued price (with margin of safety, the more, the better). In this scenario, it is not referring to "patience" of keep lowering the entry price even though it already trades below its intrinsic value with plenty room of safety margin. Good shares/blue chips normally trade at a premium. That is why we do not buy them at such expensive price. The patience here means wait for them to trade below its intrinsic value.

2) there are more than 1000 shares in Bursa alone, not counting other exchanges all over the world. We do not have enough time to look into each of these shares (maybe you can? wow)... once we found a fundamentally sound and solid share, we will evaluate its margin of safety... if it is undervalued, we can buy. We have to do certain level of risk management. Maybe u r a high risk taker, u can "sailang" in one share... I can't.. many value investors can't too.. we have a number of value shares instead of putting all in one single share... from what u said.. i assume u will look at 10 fundamentally good shares... end up only buying 1 share (or 0 share) with all your funds..
that is super risky even for good share.. if 5 of these 10 shares trade below their intrinsic value, we should buy them (or 3 to 4 of these 5) instead of buying all in one share..

just my little advice... up to you .. you own your own investment... thanks...

nikicheong, i saw some of your previous comments on how to bottom fish and predict the lowest entry price...
frankly speaking, that is really ridiculous... u kept revising/lowering your target entry price before you buy... why did you keep changing that target price and how did you derive at those prices?

No one can ever predict the lowest price or the highest price.. we don't have a crystal ball in front of us? you sounded like an expert in predicting how low it can go... and it could end up you miss the chance to buy any.

a value investor should evaluate the intrinsic value and margin of safety...(if you did, why are you lowering you entry price every time when it went down more?). and as long as it is undervalued, we can keep buying as long as we have sufficient funds... bcoz like i said, we will never know what is the bottom price...

therefore, my advice to you is.. do not try to act smart by timing the best/lowest price.. u will never get to do that (if yes, that is just by luck)...

nikicheong, I saw some of your comments in Prlexus forum. Though most of them are rather silly and made me feel sick/super funny, i did not bother to even comment about it bcoz i think that is your own way of investing.

Since you wanted to openly discuss this, let me ask you back...
you acted and sounded like a "prediction expert" in predicting how low prlexus price can go to...
i guess u must have a crystal ball in front of u... but what is funny is.. u kept revising/lowering your target entry price (for you to buy)... haha... how did u derive that target entry price? pluck from sky? why keep lowering (just bcoz u see it drops more so u lowered it)?

u may end up not buying any share as you think you can time the best price and bottom fish...
that is super funny... a value investor will buy a share when it is trading below its intrinsic value and has room for safety margin. It is impossible to time the bottom price.. as long as it is undervalued, we can still buy if we still have bullets... and then sit there and wait for it to realize its value..

most ppl are only interested in the business prospect/expansion but many have neglected the valuations that are supported by numbers. That is the purpose why I am pointing these out.
Value investment is a metric method that must be supported by actual fundamental numbers...

of course, that does not mean i do not look into the business and prospect of the company.. what i wanted to say is that, business must be supported by real numbers...

i do use some other methods like DCF (discounted cash flow), DDM (discounted dividend model), etc to do my valuations sometimes.. but it varies from case to case...

pls enlighten us....

niki, everyone has his own way of defining intrinsic value... u sound super expert so why don't u point out to me which part of my calculation is plucked from the sky and is baseless?
and why don't you share to all of us how you do ur own calculation?
i believe many of us are very interested to know..

pls enlighten us instead of just the pure mockery...

HarvardChan, u better save ur gas instead of talking to idixt who thinks he is an genius all the time (in fact, just an idixt)... he wants to win every single argument, despite being slapped hard on his lame "justification/info"... nvm la.. just let him bxrk....

Skliew, I agreed with what Jon said.. that is why I decided to stop replying to his manipulated info in Evergreen forum...
this idixt is a typical loser + provoker + psychx who gets excited when he gets to irritate ppl...

wise investors would know how to differentiate real or manipulated info...

wise investors would know that a single quarter's performance does not mean end-of-world to a fundamentally good company with sound past records...

just let him continue to bxrk...

the funniest part is on how he boasted on his "superb short term" gain... yes, for speculators who do not rely on FA, he can make 200% in one month or less... but he could have lost all in the same period... but did he even say it loud when he lost money during a speculation?

Investing in value stocks may be a little boring but we sleep well and sound at nights...

welcome back another joker moneykj.. he has been missing in action for quite some time and now he is back... it is not hard to notice he has been licking stockmanmy's boots in almost every forum...

pls enlighten us why you think Evergreen is a sunset stock?
We do not need MDF, particleboard and RTA in this world very soon in future?
Do we have alternative parts that can fully replace these items in future?

stockmanmy, pls be more specific what your X factor is...

haha... eversendai??? lmao...

haha... let me laugh first before i say it loud... oh ya, CKCS's FA is the best in i3. He has his own interpretation on balance sheet and cash flow that no one (even accountant) cannot understand.. that is brilliant... he has shown his "superb" analytical skill and balance sheet/cash flow knowledge in evergreen forum... no one can understand... and everyone is against that... i guess that is definitely something so superior and divine that no one can even understand... just like a multi-award wining movie, you can never understand what the movie is telling u... clap clap for CKCS...

guys, u all need more jokes? go to Evergreen forum and see how joker acted...

can stockmanmy shed some light to us on how to use his brain power to perform a more thorough analysis on Evergreen?
I believe we are all very keen to see that... thanks in advance...

well said gohku... these are all good points, especially on item#5.

oh ya... CKCS buys share when it has moved up a lot (until overvalued).... a typical pasar uncles & aunties move...

sunztzhe, you don't have to waste ur gas to talk so nicely to loser + idixt like CKCS... he is just not worth your effort doing such....

oh ya... this loser CKCS knows Henry S Kuo very well... sounds like he is a good friend of Henry S Kuo... lmao..

See... caught red-handed again trying to inject fake rumor to sabotage Evergreen...

A loser + manipulator will try all sorts of methods (even though those methods are stupid and unconvincing) to sabotage something, because he could not provide even a single real fact to do so.

Now he even said Henry S Kuo may siphon out Evergreen's $$$.... hey loser, please go ahead make a police report then...

Skliew, I am glad that you decided not to delete your posts as some of the info you shared is indeed very useful.
Just ignore loser + hater like CKCS... while we are doing our research homework + investing, he only talks baseless nonsense + twisted words for his personal agenda...

It is very obvious he is trying to use some real number (so that he can claim this is all fact, haha, funny) to create/manipulate stories and try to link them together and create chaos... but those linkages are very lame and hard to convince ppl...

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Skliew, you have not known this clown/joker CKCS well enough... he has shown enough his ignorance and manipulation of words in Evergreen forum... he is used to twisting info and claims those as real info... whereas we had shown him solid facts that what he said are all fabricated info trying to sabotage a certain share... don't take this loser's words so seriously.. don't believe me? go to Evergreen forum and you will find out if I am lying or not...

Like what you had said:

Foxxcom to Apple...
Inari to Broadcom...
Magni to Nike....
Prolexus to NIKE, UA,.ASICS.....

it is NOT easy at all to simply replace these sub-contractors because there are a lot of qualifying and auditing processes before the OEMs can get a new suppliers.
In fact, this was mentioned by Magni and Prlexus management during AGM, and I think it is a fair statement.
Yes, it is not 100% secured contract, but tell me which business is 100% guaranteed in this world?

Prlexus management said earlier that they are expanding to meet Nike and other customers' growing needs, so that they don't lose the market share... that means, they are still getting constant orders from their customers... having said so, the expansion is driven by the growth in demand.

So far I have seen that Prlexus has been performing excellently well over the past 5 years and this quarter drop in "profit after tax" is mainly due to the tax provision that incurred last year corresponding quarter...

loser said he gives fact. in fact, he twisted fact...

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We have previously discussed why Prlexus and Magni are not easily replaceable as contract manufacturer for well-known brands like Nike, Under Armour, etc...

The reason is, top company like Nike is very stringent in qualifying their suppliers in terms of quality & reject rate. They are performing regular on-site audits at suppliers' facilities to ensure their manufacturing processes are meeting the requirements.

as stated in this article:
http://guoxingdeblog.blogspot.my/2014/12/prolexus-agmegm.html

顾客所设损坏率为3%，公司内部定于0%，实质损坏率为0.5%，拥有舒适空间。
(Customer's requirement for defect rate = 3%, Prlexus internal target = 0%; actual defect rate = 0.5%. Plenty of margin of safety.

So you can see how well Prlexus control their production outputs...
Look at how they have been growing over the past 5 years if you still have doubt on this company...

do your own set of EBIT/EV, ROIC, ROE, FCF, CY calculations to understand how strong fundamentally is the company.... calculations and valuations will tell you...

haha... welcome Mrs Jessica... you are right, he just fled from Tanjung Rambutan and the personnel there are all out looking for him...
if anyone spots him in person, pls contact Tanjung Rambutan so that they can send him back to where he belongs

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Max Foo, look at this childish little pathetic kid.... he even tracked my comments and followed me all the way to another forum:

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/8966.jsp

He is indeed very sick... I agree with you, he sure gets an orgasm when provoking ppl... haha... damn sick...

As a FA practitioner, I am really fed up with all the nonsense he had said so far...

haha... i like what Max Foo said... lmao...

Tai KT... just ignore this loser + manipulator CKCS.. he has been badly whacked by investors in Evergreen forum so he is now shifting his focus here anew, trying to continue his clown-show here...

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