many people still dont get the meaning of 95% effective vaccine.

with current desperation from all businesses worldwide, vaccination worldwide will be done within months

every single business - you name it...will want to help to get this done as quick as possible, people cant wait for travel and holidays for life to return to normal

its done deal - max 12 months and the economy will be booming with added boost from pent up demand

its not easy to find an investment that gives 10% return in a year

you need to see the future in advance and take a strong bet

many people still dont get the meaning of 95% effective vaccine.

with current desperation from all businesses worldwide, vaccination worldwide will be done within months

every single business - you name it...will want to help to get this done as quick as possible, people cant wait for travel and holidays for life to return to normal

its done deal - max 12 months and the economy will be booming with added boost from pent up demand

its not easy to find an investment that gives 10% return in a year

you need to see the future in advance and take a strong bet

many people still dont get the meaning of 95% effective vaccine.

with current desperation from all businesses worldwide, vaccination worldwide will be done within months

every single business - you name it...will want to help to get this done as quick as possible, people cant wait for travel and holidays for life to return to normal

its done deal - max 12 months and the economy will be booming with added boost from pent up demand

its not easy to find an investment that gives 10% return in a year

you need to see the future in advance and take a strong bet

many people still dont get the meaning of 95% effective vaccine.

with current desperation from all businesses worldwide, vaccination worldwide will be done within months

every single business - you name it...will want to help to get this done as quick as possible, people cant wait for travel and holidays for life to return to normal

its done deal - max 12 months and the economy will be booming with added boost from pent up demand

its not easy to find an investment that gives 10% return in a year

you need to see the future in advance and take a strong bet

yes Tkeng, lets see....

this is pandemic recovery stocks...market should realize anytime soon..

yup...plenty of oil supply will maintain oil price low..however with the vaccine, demand should pick up on lctitan products...increasing the margin

ironically O&G stocks already climbing up fast with vaccine news

and yet LC titan seems confused where to go

Posted by Tkeng > Nov 17, 2020 8:14 AM | Report Abuse

@probability... Margin squeeze,... 4.1% profit on sales qr3. Still had feedstock in their inventory when naptha was high... Oil prices going to remain low for a long time. Margins may improve even with lesser volume, no?
17/11/2020 7:53 AM

keyword - "will be dependent on the pandemic recovery trajectory"

prospects
..........

The results of our operations for the financial year ending 31 December 2020 are expected to be primarily influenced by the following factors

(a) The demand and supply balance of petrochemical products in the market;

(b) Our ability to maximise production outputs and operational efficiency;

(c) Petrochemical product demand moves in tandem with overall global GDP growth, driven by consumption and population growth; and

(d) Feedstock prices which is correlated to crude oil prices.


The International Monetary Fund in its latest report has noted a less severe economic contraction for 2020 than it initially expected. This is following the better-than-expected 2nd quarter economic recession in major developed and emerging economies, led by strong recovery in the Chinese economy. The softened impact was also supported by the massive fiscal countermeasures and accommodative monetary policies implemented by all major economies in the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nevertheless, the recovery outlook remains fragile with high degree of uncertainties for now, as it will be dependent on the pandemic recovery trajectory.

Group revenue decreased by 23% (or RM 1,485.4 million) from RM 6,464.1 million to RM 4,978.7 million due to decrease in average product selling price and sales volume. The COVID-19 pandemic have affected regional economy resulting in poor business sentiment and weakened demand. Regional businesses display sign of recovery with recent
improvement seen in average product selling price and sales volume. Apart from the virus outbreak, reduction in production quantity resulting from the major statutory plant turnaround conducted in 1H 2020 has also caused the decrease in sales volume.

OMG...kltower...very powerful image...
i can also see ah Thai sitting inside!

recent high in cases is 575 k per day worldwide....

vaccine to bring down the cases? Wait till 2024...



Posted by freetospeak > Nov 1, 2020 10:19 AM | Report Abuse

how about if asp not coming down when supermax got 48 bilcaps oledi...
4 bil pat per qtr...u scared or not...

What!!! haven consider 15 bil us caps...
If consider ...5 bil PAT per qtr???
Super max pe 1 at 2022 at current price ?

if gloves stock dips...the whole market will...no choice..best catalyst is interest rate reduction...and think its inevitable

plenty of money to take out from financial sector...it had barely dipped

hope for interest rate cut...and fund taking out money from other stocks and add more on gloves..

and the winter is just starting...all other economic activity is going for a halt...i expect oil price to crash below 30USD/brl again...

i think its consolidating...or more like digesting how far these pandemic will go before another breakout in the share price..

If you notice the ASP on latest month from Supermax analyst briefing..it had exceeded 220USD/k gloves

this i agree...ASP decline is the trigger point..

Posted by CharlesT > Oct 31, 2020 7:26 PM | Report Abuse

The peak of asp likely to be in next q i think..or at most one more q..

When u c profit stops to increase then u know what to do

may be at least till next winter ...these spot orders will be there looks like...

further since order already booked till end 2021...whatever they produce cannot increase the inventory of the gloves worlwide..and ots indeed depleting very fast

true also...but there is just no other place to park money feels like...unless you keep it as cash...

sifu charles...this time may be can really extend to 2022 look like...looking how they are investing on additional capacity...

any gut feeling..insight what could be the next theme play?

O&G seems too early to go in..

and 2021 too...

Wawasan 2020...1 Malaysia....duduk rumah main saham

https://www.google.com/search?q=riverstone+sgx&oq=river&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j69i59l2j0l2j46l3.5735j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

https://www.lottechem.my/upload/webBoard/LB15/LB15_a_2020730132919.pdf

page 9/13 says a thousand word...stay calm & focused

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/21/weather/hurricane-epsilon-wednesday/index.html

https://www.investing.com/equities/mercator-wa

Mercator stock price: 680, + 12.96 PC

https://www.investing.com/equities/mercator-wa

Mercator stock price: 680, + 12.96 PC

ok, those are good picks also...but didnt notice as much as lctitan using i3's conventional explosive earnings forecast as most sifus do...with fast reaction time

hope for the best


Posted by Choivo Capital > Oct 12, 2020 11:04 AM | Report Abuse

Probability.

Timecom, Opensys, RCECAP leh?

If coming qtr results hit 300m....need to upgrade Jon to junior sifu already....

it will be his first pick which truly delivers

its a big crucial test for Jon now

all IB will be revising their TP soon

Posted by pjseow > Sep 19, 2020 10:51 PM | Report Abuse

RHB is the only analyst used DCF to compute tgt price which is 9.50. The question of what PE.and which year earning to use.to compute tgt price should not arise since all future earnings.from 2021 till infinity are considered . We can only question their profit assumptions , discount and growth rates after.2023. In my opinion, the assumption of 2023 earning.at.4.478 billion is on the high side and the terminal growth.rate of 1 % is too low . The discount.rate of 7 %
is fair .

https://www.sfgate.com/shopping/article/what-do-do-about-upcoming-nitrile-glove-shortage-15557731.php

https://www.sfgate.com/shopping/article/what-do-do-about-upcoming-nitrile-glove-shortage-15557731.php

I respect CGS-CIMB the most. Once lose credibility, not easy to retain back - pariah prem the writer for MacQ

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/56901.jsp

Petronas’ 2Q20 core loss stood at-RM0.7bn (1Q20: +RM8.5bn, 2Q19: +RM14.5bn), brought 1H20 core profit to RM7.8bn (-73% YoY). The weak results were primarily due to lower crude oil prices. 1H20 capex spending of RM14.8bn only constituted 37% of its planned capex target of c.RM40bn in FY20. While Brent crude and LNG prices have recovered from its lows, demand for crude and LNG is still severely impacted by Covid-19. We believe that Brent Crude prices would need to average above USD55 for at least 1 year in order for Petronas to revert to its pre -Covid-19 capex spending level of about c.RM50bn.

Reiterate NEUTRAL view on the sector, our top pick for the sector is Armada (BUY; TP: RM0.60) as its FPSO earnings are expected to remain strong, while its current valuations are still undemanding. We are keeping our average oil prices forecast unchanged at USD44/bbl in 2020.

Post removed.Why?

very good work fightingdragon!

dont wait till it turns green...

thanks for the info pjseow

Brent was trading below $30/brl in April - June qtr.....even hitting below $20/brl!....and yet BA delivered excellent performance.

This stock no longer has any link with oil price......except those clueless speculators who got in linking to it...

These are sustainable earnings unlike any other stock you can find in Bursa under Covid pandemic......

could very well be the cheapest stock in bursa in terms of Cash flow vs Market cap

never ever let go
.................

valid point there ageetkumar

Posted by ageetkumar > Sep 2, 2020 3:27 PM | Report Abuse

Armada has around 25 Offshore vessels and a couple of pipe lay / construction vessel. The brand new cost of each OSV is around USD 15 mil. Take 100 mil for 2 construction vsls. That will make around USD 700mil of MYR 2.8 Bn as new. Armad has in the last last couple of years declared impairment in excess on MYR 2 Bn. So these assets should be sitting in their books at close to scrap or zero value. I can't see how they can have any further impairments unless some kind of accounting gimmick / fraud is at play here

FPSO MARKET IS EXPECTED TO GROW AT A ROBUST RATE OF 11.80%

September 2, 2020

https://primefeed.in/news/4896744/fpso-market-is-expected-to-grow-at-
a-robust-rate-of-11-80/


The global floating production storage and offloading FPSO market is competitive and segmented. Transparency Market Research Market (TMR) report states that there are a few major players in the industry who are relentlessly developing new and innovative designs to penetrate the global market during the forecast period. These prominent players are focused on introducing new strategies like collaborations and partnerships to provide new in the global market.

Some of the prominent players operating in the global FPSO vessel market include MODEC, Inc., BW Offshore, BUMI ARMADA BERHAD, Blue Water Energy Services, and SBM Offshore N.V.

Growing demand for alternative sources of oil due to continual depletion of existing oil reserves drives the global FPSO market. The global FPSO market is expected to grow at a robust rate of 11.80% during the forecast period 2016 to 2026. Additionally, the revenue in the global FPSO market is projected to reach up to US$8.30 bn by the end of 2026.

oil price drop is a precious opportunity to accumulate...

since only the uninformed would sell

Huat ah!

@bullishhalali

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-tesla-stock-split-more-shares-to-go-around-morning-brief-100905716.html

may be a good thing if masjid, church and temples never reopen...

actually i am quite certain it will be good...not only on the aspects of covid 19...but general tolerance between the citizens

The clearest sign that all other investment will be losers in the time to come is..... Maybank price decline

U.S. Medical Supply Shortage Plaguing More Than Just Tests for Covid-19

1 September 2020

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/supply-shortages-are-plaguing-non-covid-testing-in-the-u-s-too?srnd=economics-vp


Pipette Tips, Gloves
....................

There are also overlapping shortages. Swabs aren’t just for Covid-19 tests -- they’re also necessary for a respiratory panel that looks for viruses and whooping cough. Pipette tips are also used widely.


Some items, like protective gloves and lab coats, are so common beyond the world of infectious disease that stretched supplies have affected labs that detect food-borne outbreaks, screen newborns and conduct environmental health testing. While a spokeswoman for the Association of Public Health Laboratories said the surge in demand hasn’t yet stopped anyone from getting test results, there’s been enough trouble locating supplies to cause worry.

https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2335198.html

New production capacity + higher selling price‧Supermax's earnings continue to be strong
.......................

Glove stock enthusiasts ask: Supermax (SUPERMX, 7106, motherboard healthcare group) stock price has risen a lot, what is the business outlook? Can it support high stock prices?

Answer: The growth rate of the average selling price of Superma gloves slowed down slightly in July this year, but analysts believe that due to the current oversold condition of glove products, it is expected that the profitability of the next three quarters will remain strong.

The fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020 is not the company's best quarter, because those orders are sold at lower prices and delivered in May this year. Tat Securities pointed out that starting from June 20, 90% of the company's product sales will be sold at higher prices.

Tat Securities expects Supermax to make a huge profit jump (possibly more than RM680 million) in the first quarter of FY2021, mainly driven by new capacity and higher average selling prices.

23 billion glove orders as of July
..................................

Tat Securities pointed out that the average sales price growth rate of the company's glove products slowed down by about 3.5% in July. The strong earnings performance is expected to continue into at least the next three quarters, especially the current oversold situation, that is, as of the end of July 2020, the order has reached 23 billion gloves.

Superma’s capacity expansion is on track. The four new production lines of the 12th factory in Block B (with a capacity of 2.2 billion gloves) are expected to be launched in the third quarter of this year, and the remaining four production lines will be launched before the fourth quarter of 2020 . The company is now building 5 new factories (P13, P14, P15, P16 and P17). The goal is to increase the total production capacity to 26.2 billion and 36.4 billion gloves by the end of 2020 and 2021, respectively. The current annual production capacity is about 24 billion, and it will increase to 48.4 billion by the end of 2022. Overall, the plant utilization rate in the first quarter of fiscal 2021 is expected to increase to approximately 85%.

The contact lens business
..........................

suffers losses. The contact lens business of Supermax currently only accounts for less than 2% of total sales. However, it has improved after the launch of new products. However, it still suffers operating losses, mainly due to additional expenses, especially advertising and promotion expenses. ; The loss for FY2021 is expected to be RM5 million.

As for the production of masks, the monthly production capacity will be 8 million as of the fourth quarter of this year, which is expected to be profitable.

In the fourth quarter of FY2020, Supermax's quarterly revenue increased by 107.7% and core net profit surged by 462.4%. CIMB Research pointed out that the management pointed out at the analyst's report meeting that it was mainly due to three benefits: higher average sales Prices, sales volume increase, and associated company profits rise (better distribution margins). "If it were not for some reasons, the company could have achieved higher profitability in the fourth quarter, including certain freight and delivery delays, and a write-down of 14 million ringgit due to factory shutdowns. Own brand manufacturing (OBM) distribution model is a winning formula ."

"Superma is confident of achieving higher profitability, especially in the first half of fiscal 2021. This is due to the increase in global glove demand, resulting in higher average selling prices (manufacturing and distribution), increased sales, and higher economies of scale. The bank was informed that Superma’s collection of deposits for orders brought the customer’s advance payment to RM894.2 million as of the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020, proving the current strong 10 to 12 month order visibility."

CIMB Research maintains the company’s fiscal year 2021-2023 financial forecast unchanged, and continues to be optimistic about the prospects, mainly: 1. Optimistic operating environment (strong global glove demand); 2. Attractive valuation (Malaysia Gloves) The average P/E of the shares in the 2021 fiscal year is 26 times discounted by 31.9%); 3. The private label manufacturing business model has achieved higher profit margins than other peers.

CIMB Research has given an overweight rating with a target price of RM27; Tat Securities recommends to hold on with a target price of RM23 and 66 sen.