https://www.sinchew.com.my/content/content_2335198.html

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/hleresearch/2020-09-01-story-h1513281640-Bumi_Armada_Unleash_the_Kraken.jsp

see page 23 of latest qtr report on its floating debt structure at 84 pc

imagine interest rate is now reduced to 1.5 pc from 3.8 pc for 8 billion term loan

OMG...sifu James presenting Armada got 4888 views!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1218&v=4EhDywd4b18&feature=emb_logo

i only see raider playing the same recorder again n again...it becomes more like soothing music before the market opens...LOL!

appears to be more of a currency bet

Posted by PZOGRO > Aug 31, 2020 4:05 PM | Report Abuse

Why Malaysian Topglove would be Warrant Buffett next investment pick?

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/08/31/buffett-l...

"Note (that) BNM had cut the OPR by a total of 125bps year-to-date to 1.75% to complement the equally robust fiscal measures aimed at buffering the economy from the impact of the pandemic. But with growth surprising on the downside and an arduous recovery path ahead notwithstanding, there is room for further monetary easing to support growth in the coming months.

"As such, we now expect one final 25bps cut by BNM as early as in the forthcoming September meeting

..............

people still havent got the message that huge Debt is fantastic news for Armada...

BNM seen making final 25bps OPR cut as early as September — DBS

August 31, 2020

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bnm-seen-making-final-25bps-opr-cut-early-september-%E2%80%94-dbs

BNM seen making final 25bps OPR cut as early as September — DBS

August 31, 2020

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bnm-seen-making-final-25bps-opr-cut-early-september-%E2%80%94-dbs

Oil price hitting $46.3 / brl...really unfortunate market not open today

have feeling it will break 47 by this week

I missed the below article on MFCB earlier:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/tradeview/2020-08-22-story-h1512480318-_Tradeview_2020_Long_Term_Value_Pick_4_Mega_First_Corporation_Bhd_The_P.jsp

very well expressed article, very fair

30% of amore in US said, they will NEVER take vaccine shots even with usd $1000 incentive each to do so.

In msia, there r so many health craze pple, likely 50% will never bother abt it.
Vaccine is for all super healthy people in the world.

Without long 3-5 yrs proven history of safety n high 98% efficacy, many in the world will not take the multiple shots
even paid to do so. The doctors would not take, how about you?

This smart Indian Dr of IIT has a pt:

“Chasing 2% of the population with a 98% sure cure has a far better probability of success than chasing 98% of the world population with a 2% surety of safety and efficacy,” he said

.......

expressed it very well , its very clear how the future going to be

@vespa, yes indeed... glad i manage to find this news from google

it gives a very good future prospect for Armada FPSO

oil price already $46/brl....how long Dayang can hold at this price level is a ticking 'time bomb'

Trust the above would definitely increase the FPSO utilization rate from July onwards..

Post removed.Why?

If you see on 11th Aug, some funds had acquired large chunks on many O&G stocks...as they probably know by next qtr earnings will show up....and they may not get such opportunity to buy cheap by then

@Reiko, i think it has to do with the fact that serrba had shown that its earnings is barely affected by the covid....unlike Dayang affected badly due to MCO locally in the last 2 qtrs

Serba unaffected in Qatar O&M jobs, as they did not have MCO like in Malaysia

As expressed by Dayang's management, i am confident coming qtr results of Dayang will be almost back to normal

Operating cash flow before changes in working capital (and interest) for last 2 qtrs:

766.263 m
.........

if you translate above cash to EPS, its 26.5 cents per annum

Meaning, Armada generates its entire market cap currently every year.

how cheaper can a stock be more than this?

ignore the debt risk...it does not exist with the future of zero interest rate...

some historical refreshment for newbies..

..........................

(Icon) Bumi Armada - A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy

Author: Icon8888 | Publish date: Sun, 30 Jun 2019,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-06-30-story212924-_Icon_Bumi_Armada_A_Not_So_Good_Company_Selling_At_Cheap_Price_Can_Be_A_Good_Buy.jsp

Where do yield-starved investors go?

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/718535/where-do-yield-starved-investors-go

......

here.....Armada would give a yield of 30%

With a continuous reduction on 8 billion debt interest rate, Armada would effectively become like a commercial bank who makes net interest margin (NIM) between central bank and investors.....but Armada between commercial bank and Order book of 17 billion

More i dwell, the more its becoming clear what a wonderful bet Armada is with explosive return!

Operating cash flow before changes in working capital for last 2 qtrs:

766.263 m
.........

if you translate above cash to EPS, its 26.5 cents per annum

Meaning, Armada generates its entire market cap currently every year.

how cheaper can a stock be more than this?

ignore the debt risk...it does not exist with the future of zero interest rate...

some historical refreshment for newbies..

..........................

(Icon) Bumi Armada - A Not So Good Company Selling At Cheap Price Can Be A Good Buy

Author: Icon8888 | Publish date: Sun, 30 Jun 2019,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/2019-06-30-story212924-_Icon_Bumi_Armada_A_Not_So_Good_Company_Selling_At_Cheap_Price_Can_Be_A_Good_Buy.jsp

Where do yield-starved investors go?

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/718535/where-do-yield-starved-investors-go

......

here.....Armada would give a yield of 30%

With a continuous reduction on 8 billion debt interest rate, Armada would effectively become like a commercial bank who makes net interest margin (NIM) between central bank and investors.....but Armada between commercial bank and Order book of 17 billion

More i dwell, the more its becoming clear what a wonderful bet Armada is with explosive return!

Post removed.Why?

This is Cold Eye stock liao...cant go wrong!

Operating profit before impairment increased to RM246.6mil in 2Q

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/718247/bumi-armada-stages-strong-2q-performance-net-profit-rm120m

2% interest rate reduction of 8 billion is already 160 million per annum

Net cash generated from operating activities for last 2 qtrs (despite the MCO): 195,452 , its about 100m per qtr

the above is with almost half the revenue than normal due to MCO

at current cash level of 446m, it can easily become net cash company within next 2 qtrs


golden opportunity to accumulate

at this oil price level....it has nothing to worry about capex by petronas

maintenance are mandatory services

dayang earnings going forward will easily beat serba...its much easier to grow aggressively unlike serba which is already a monster

I see management had hinted significant improvement going forward.....

Dayang is quite independent on oil price. The pent up services may fall into coming qtrs....

Serba moving up already....what about Dayang?

ok thanks for the confirmation pjseow

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mega-first-gets-us150m-loan-don-sahong-hydropower-project

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 10): Mega First Corp Bhd secured a US$150 million (RM634.88 million) loan to part-finance the construction of the Don Sahong hydropower project in Laos.

Mega First told Bursa Malaysia today its wholly-owned subsidiary Mega First Investments (L) Ltd had yesterday entered into facility agreements with various financial institutions for the "club deal facilities".

The US$150 million loan comprises conventional term-loan facilities of US$85 million and an Islamic financing scheme of up to US$65 million, read the filing.

According to the company, the conventional facilities' interest rate and Islamic financing scheme's profit rate are based on a "variable rate that is linked to the financial institution's cost of funds. Based on today's cost of funds, the weighted average interest is 4.51%".

...

so it means it will be adjusted?

Further OPR cut of 25bps or 50bps in near term likely — AmBank chief

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/further-opr-cut-25bps-or-50bps-near-term-likely-%E2%80%94-ambank-chief

.........

where can you park money, if not for stock like MFCB

wonder, if MFCB loan interest rate has the potential to come down..

pjseow, any idea how their loan interest rate works - is that fixed?

when i see Maybank's results, it makes me realize how a precious gem MFCB is

very interesting news ahpooki2, thanks

Posted by ahpooki2 > Aug 27, 2020 2:05 PM | Report Abuse

https://theconversation.com/approval-of-a-coronavirus-vaccine-would-be-just-the-beginning-huge-production-challenges-could-cause-long-delays-144179?utm_source=whatsapp&utm_medium=bylinewhatsappbutton

may be need some money for coming election in US...may be expect US market crash if trump loses...can be many reasons

Posted by Joe Ng > Aug 27, 2020 11:51 AM | Report Abuse

why fidelity is disposing shares when the price just breakout?

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070715/what-pricetoearnings-ratio-average-utilities-sector.asp

What Is the Average Price-to-Earnings Ratio in the Utilities Sector?

Feb 24, 2020

For 2019, the average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the utilities sector was approximately 28.23. This number applies to water, electricity, and gas utilities, as well as any ancillary companies that independently produce or distribute power. Looking forward to the remainder of 2020, analysts project a 39.18 P/E ratio, which is well above the 23.35 market-wide P/E ratio estimates.

.........

even half of that would do...he he

thanks steven832

The total number of share options granted to the Group’s employees and directors which remained unexercised as at 30 June 2020 was 18,181,409 (31.12.2019:22,888,411). Of the total 475,994,642 (31.12.2019: 438,342,263) issued ordinary shares as at 30 June 2020, 20,497,300 (31.12.2019: 20,497,300) ordinary shares were held as treasury shares by the Company. The number of outstanding ordinary shares in issue as at 30 June 2020 was therefore 455,497,342 (31.12.2019: 417,844,963).

............

the above is the extract from qtr report.

guess you add the outstanding shares of 455.5m with unexercised option of 18m and the treasury shares of 20.5m to obtain 494m shares?

Taking out the non-controlling interest, about 72 cents i guess?

pjseow, you mean EPS of 78 cents right?


Posted by pjseow > Aug 26, 2020 9:18 PM | Report Abuse

You are right, probability. If we use the estimate of 90% utilization for second half, the revenue from DS is about 267 million. Using a profit margin of 71%, second half profit is about 190 million. Assuming the resource and packaging divisions contribute 10 millions, total profits for the year will be about 338 millions. This will translate into 68 s EPS for the.whole year .

Thanks for the info pjseow, PE 15 does give a yield of about 7% your son had used on the DCF.

Referring to the below extract from qtr report, when availability factor increase by 90% from 78%, the impact on earnings can be more than proportional i suppose?

Planning to hold long unless it shoots up very high. This kinda margin and duration no business can provide.

.................



Power Division (Don Sahong Project)
....................................

Don Sahong achieved full commercial operation on 7 January 2020 following successful testing of and synchronization with EDL’s new 500 KV by-pass transmission line to Cambodia.

Reported power revenue of RM233.7 million for the 6-month period this year represented energy billing to EDL during the period on a take-or-pay basis, Despite the seasonal dry season in January-May, the period recorded an average energy availability factor of 78.7%, slightly ahead of management expectations.

With the onset of wetter weather in June, the average energy availability factor is forecast to exceed 90% in the second half of the year.

with such low interest rate, PE can even be 20 i suppose..

guess you are very confident on achieving 70 cents next year pjseow?
thinking of adding more

Posted by pjseow > Aug 20, 2020 12:39 PM | Report Abuse

Investor77, analysts are projecting very high earnings for both supermx and topglove for FY 2021. The PE range between 10 to 15 of 2021 earnings. Their earnings are few x of FY 2020 earnings. Thats is reasons why you see high tgt prices. I think.PE of 15 is a reasonable number for mfcb. I estimated mfcb earning to be about 65 to 70 sen this year and between 70 to 75 s next year

noted pjseow, i have seen you messages earlier on how delayed they are at realizing these ASPs...due to lead time

thanks for your usual deep analysis

Posted by pjseow > Aug 23, 2020 2:59 PM | Report Abuse

Probability, based on Supermx Q4 2020 result analyst briefing, we can actually estimate the earnings of Q1,Q2,Q3 and Q4 2021.The informations from.slide 4, 9 ,13 and 14 provides pricing ,leadtimes and orders .These info enable us to estimate the increasing earnings of the next 4 qtrs.I estimated the earnings of next 4 qtrs of.approximately 620 million,775 million, 978 million and 1114 million respectively. Total earning for 2021 is 3.5 billion. My assumption is no capacity increase and no cost increase. Strictly based on ASP increase and monthly volume of 2 billion pcs.This translates into rm 2.57 per share.With just a PE of 15, the tgt price is rm 38.6 if we base on FY 2021 earning.

At current risk free interest rate of 1.8% and further interest rate cut before end of the year, and the fact that all other businesses will remain depressed until the pandemic is over (2 -3 years time)....you really cant see the interest rate direction reversing again for many years to come....

As such, its possible for Gloves stock like Super to deserve a PE of 40...after all its going to beat Harta's margin edge consistently going forward