probability

Probability | Joined since 2014-03-18

Investing Experience Not Disclosed
Risk Profile Moderate

Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.

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Stock

2020-07-25 18:24 | Report Abuse

they had actually planned this long back in April..

.....

Masks and gloves could be compulsory when Britain eventually gets back to work after lockdown

Government considering moves to force people to wear protective equipment at certain indoor work places as well as on public transport

17 APR 2020

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/uk-news/masks-gloves-could-compulsory-britain-18104716

Stock

2020-07-25 18:20 | Report Abuse

you just need another spike in cases in UK

Stock

2020-07-25 18:17 | Report Abuse

ha ha..true also...

Stock

2020-07-25 18:15 | Report Abuse

If the above rule happens, all of Supermax gloves will go to UK (Supermax Aurelia)...even then cant cope with demand already at 190USD/k gloves

Stock

2020-07-25 18:12 | Report Abuse

MINISTERS are "looking at" whether the public should have to wear gloves to stop the spread of coronavirus, it was revealed today.

Health Minister Lord Bethell said that covering up the hands remained under consideration.

People could have to wear gloves next to stop the spread of covid
.................................................................

On the possibility of Brits having to wear gloves, Conservative Baroness McIntosh of Pickering asked in the House of Lords today: "Has the Government formed a view on the use of gloves?

"Obviously we're all following the guidance of washing our hands but surely the correct use of gloves outdoors and indoors could prevent the passing on of the virus?"

And health minister Lord Bethell, concluding a debate on coronavirus regulations, replied: "To date, gloves are not in the guidance but they remain an area that we're looking at."

Stock

2020-07-25 18:11 | Report Abuse

ON THE OTHER HAND GLOVES could be made compulsory next for public with ministers ‘looking at’ the move

Natasha Clark
24 Jul 2020

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/12216052/public-wear-gloves-coronavirus/

Stock

2020-07-25 14:55 | Report Abuse

thanks for the reaffirmation free...

Stock

2020-07-25 14:26 | Report Abuse

you mean, the distributors will be forced to squeeze their margin while the OEM expands...

difficult for me to comprehend...as the demand first contact point is the distributors..and the demand pressure is transferred from distributors to OEM...


the customers are the engine....the drive....

your theory sounds like the wheel is driving the engine




Posted by hglee101 > Jul 25, 2020 2:21 PM | Report Abuse

When the demand is higher than the supply, the supplier can decide the price, furthermore, the delivery lead time is more than 12months.

Stock

2020-07-25 14:16 | Report Abuse

you mean distributors of super sell for free (without any margin) just like topglove distributors in U.S?

Stock

2020-07-25 14:14 | Report Abuse

kindly elaborate why is that so...

Posted by hglee101 > Jul 25, 2020 2:12 PM | Report Abuse

No different whether OBM or OEM when operation has reached 100%.

Stock

2020-07-25 14:08 | Report Abuse

actually one simple way of comparing Super with TG is this:
...........................................................

(1) decide what OBM margin is vs OEM

i see the ratio (OBM/OEM) ranges anywhere from 5 x , to the most conservative assumption giving 2 x.
Meaning if OEM make RM 0.10 per glove OBM makes at least RM 0.20 per glove.

(2) this margin difference can be represented as equivalent gloves.

For a minimum ratio of 2, the equivalent gloves capacity of Super will be double its existing versus topglove

as such Super effective capacity is 42 billion if topglove is at 90 billion. i.e about 50% of TG


(3) mcap of super versus topglove should reflect the equivalent gloves capacity

Current market cap of TG is 70 billion versus super of 23 billion

...............

based on (2) above, shouldnt super be having at least half the mcap of topglove? instead of less than 30% currently.

Super being OBM would have higher flexibility on spot orders which was shooting to 190usd per 1000 gloves in July....

being smaller, it has higher rate of expansion in capacity (growth) lesser constrained by workers unlike topglove...

further it had established its distributors at the key affected areas like Brazil and U.S....

I am still curious why the pricing has not catch up to TG

using the above arguments, super should be priced at 26 if topglove is at 26

In a nutshell, their price should match
.................................

Stock

2020-07-25 13:18 | Report Abuse

everyone show some respect to rr88:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCXW9IIiMoE

he was ex-commando....

Stock

2020-07-25 12:33 | Report Abuse

so this 'biological weapon' world war just starting i guess..

you will need self protection for a long period to come

Stock

2020-07-25 12:28 | Report Abuse

u.s can then easily send this 'biological weapon' which they have become immune to any other country....discreetly

u.s cases is almost 100k per day...and more than 5m already infected...in reality may be 10-20% of U.S citizens are already infected by now...

all it takes is another 4 months...at such exponential spread rate
(vaccine usage would be way longer 10 months
and the whole U.S is immune (of course with the expense of thousands of deaths)

Stock

2020-07-25 12:20 | Report Abuse

may be thats what u.s is aiming for....herd immunity

with that they will be the king maker and threaten china anytime

Stock

2020-07-25 12:15 | Report Abuse

i really do not see myself getting cured by such vaccine...

say i get vaccinated with all the side effects

by end 2021 or 2022, what happens if another new virus popped up? further its extremely likely that the current virus had mutated that even the new vaccines after so much trial phase is no longer effective for the fresh ones...

how many times should i get vaccinated then?
............................................

i see the only practical way out is herd immunity....all other good news are to console the market (Trump's priority)...

This pandemic is like a forest fire....

"it will not stop till it burns all the woods in the forest, leaving only the wet ones behind".

Stock

2020-07-24 20:16 | Report Abuse

walao eh....need to enjoy some red wine over the weekend...



Posted by hng33 > Jul 24, 2020 8:14 PM | Report Abuse

If small glove maker, careplus with OEM can record more than 1700% profit growth in quarterly result, what will happen to supermax with much higher profit margin business model OBM + own distribution???

1000% increase profit will record RM 710m or EPS 52sen
2000% increase profit will record RM 1410m or EPS 104sen.

Stock

2020-07-24 11:19 | Report Abuse

here for you:

https://specials-images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/1222318611/960x0.jpg?fit=scale

Posted by anticonman > Jul 24, 2020 11:16 AM | Report Abuse

M'sians and i3 members many conmen. Pls show your photo wearing glove. Upload your photo in i3 if you dare.

Stock

2020-07-24 11:13 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-07-24 11:12 | Report Abuse

lol!...entertainment is important...

Posted by zzzz52 > Jul 24, 2020 11:08 AM | Report Abuse

if there are differing points it is 100% fine. We need bad and good news. sure. it is just too much to scroll through... lol

but it is also entertainment here to many... lol

Stock

2020-07-24 10:52 | Report Abuse

i have no issues with any naysayers......as long as they say things with sound judgement...just one long comment with substance would do...

only benefit of private group is that you can remove annoying comments which takes up the space....

as such more & more private group formation should warn people to comment responsibly....and dont waste time creating new ids

Stock

2020-07-24 10:48 | Report Abuse

very true...face the reality...

one good example is Jaks private group...they became no longer open to criticism and differing opinion...

end up unable to see the truth

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 24, 2020 10:42 AM | Report Abuse

i am not against creating group...but if your intention is to get away then the intention is wrong.

News & Blogs

2020-07-21 10:36 | Report Abuse

I wonder what happens if the distributor role they had taken (as an OBM), itself fetches 30USD/1000 gloves....

5 Billion gloves sales per qtr with that margin is already enough without any OEM margin

Stock

2020-07-20 22:45 | Report Abuse

Yes, TG guarantee up tomorrow

Stock

2020-07-20 22:44 | Report Abuse

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax has commissioned and undergone a Sedex Members Ethical Trade Audit (SMETA) audit by an independent auditor successfully and admitted as a member of SEDEX.

SEDEX is one of the world’s leading ethical trade service providers, working to improve working conditions in global supply chains. It provides practical tools, services and a community network to help companies improve their responsible and sustainable business practices, and source responsibly.
SMETA is an ethical audit format which reports on Sedex's four pillars of labour, health, safety and environment in reflecting good business ethics.


Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax now is the safer choice now due to sedex member. Tg might get another hit from uk activist so tg investor mus be prepared. Not fear mongering jus be prepared n pls update here also if got latest news coz many here also vested in tg.

Stock

2020-07-20 22:43 | Report Abuse

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax has commissioned and undergone a Sedex Members Ethical Trade Audit (SMETA) audit by an independent auditor successfully and admitted as a member of SEDEX.

SEDEX is one of the world’s leading ethical trade service providers, working to improve working conditions in global supply chains. It provides practical tools, services and a community network to help companies improve their responsible and sustainable business practices, and source responsibly.
SMETA is an ethical audit format which reports on Sedex's four pillars of labour, health, safety and environment in reflecting good business ethics.


Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax now is the safer choice now due to sedex member. Tg might get another hit from uk activist so tg investor mus be prepared. Not fear mongering jus be prepared n pls update here also if got latest news coz many here also vested in tg.

Stock

2020-07-20 22:42 | Report Abuse

Rubber gloves entering Australia from Malaysia could be linked to forced labour, with US restricting imports

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-20/gloves-malaysia-forced-labour-us-detention-order-australia/12292708

The world relies on Malaysia'
...............................


The COVID-19 pandemic has seen an unprecedented surge in demand for personal protection equipment (PPE), particularly from Malaysia, which is thought to produce upwards of 60 per cent of the world's gloves.

In March, the US embassy in Kuala Lumpur declared that "the world relies on Malaysia in the fight against COVID-19".


Top Glove's revenue has skyrocketed as a result, reporting an incredible 366 per cent jump in net profit for the third quarter of 2020.

The company last month lauded "unparalleled growth" and its "most outstanding performance yet", with executive director Lim Cheong Guan telling reporters that: "The best is yet to come."

But there are indications that boosted production has taken a toll on workers.

An investigation by local news outlet Malaysiakini, released in early May, found that Top Glove was operating an initiative called Heroes for COVID-19, whereby workers were encouraged to spend up to four hours on their days off packing rubber gloves to meet demand.

"I don't feel like a hero at all," one worker, who said they had worked 14 days straight, told Malaysiakini.

A separate investigation by the UK's Channel 4 found that Top Glove workers were being paid less than $2-an-hour to work 12-hour shifts, 6 days a week.

Finnish Member of European Parliament Heidi Hautala and six other MEPs wrote to the EU's Commissioner for Trade in late May over "systemic and documented forced labour concerns" in Malaysia's glove-making industry.

"Illegal recruitment fees, long hours, low pay, passport confiscation and squalid, overcrowded accommodation are commonplace," Ms Hautala wrote.

"Such conditions leave workers, who are often foreign workers from countries such as Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal, vulnerable to forced labour and debt bondage, which are modern forms of slavery."

Stock

2020-07-20 22:40 | Report Abuse

Rubber gloves entering Australia from Malaysia could be linked to forced labour, with US restricting imports

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-20/gloves-malaysia-forced-labour-us-detention-order-australia/12292708


The world relies on Malaysia'
............................

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen an unprecedented surge in demand for personal protection equipment (PPE), particularly from Malaysia, which is thought to produce upwards of 60 per cent of the world's gloves.

In March, the US embassy in Kuala Lumpur declared that "the world relies on Malaysia in the fight against COVID-19".


Top Glove's revenue has skyrocketed as a result, reporting an incredible 366 per cent jump in net profit for the third quarter of 2020.

The company last month lauded "unparalleled growth" and its "most outstanding performance yet", with executive director Lim Cheong Guan telling reporters that: "The best is yet to come."

But there are indications that boosted production has taken a toll on workers.

An investigation by local news outlet Malaysiakini, released in early May, found that Top Glove was operating an initiative called Heroes for COVID-19, whereby workers were encouraged to spend up to four hours on their days off packing rubber gloves to meet demand.

"I don't feel like a hero at all," one worker, who said they had worked 14 days straight, told Malaysiakini.

A separate investigation by the UK's Channel 4 found that Top Glove workers were being paid less than $2-an-hour to work 12-hour shifts, 6 days a week.

Finnish Member of European Parliament Heidi Hautala and six other MEPs wrote to the EU's Commissioner for Trade in late May over "systemic and documented forced labour concerns" in Malaysia's glove-making industry.

"Illegal recruitment fees, long hours, low pay, passport confiscation and squalid, overcrowded accommodation are commonplace," Ms Hautala wrote.

"Such conditions leave workers, who are often foreign workers from countries such as Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal, vulnerable to forced labour and debt bondage, which are modern forms of slavery."

Stock

2020-07-20 21:30 | Report Abuse

not scared la...we want to leverage from TG rise

Posted by TeamRocket > Jul 20, 2020 9:27 PM | Report Abuse

All people scare for what? The big player is not kyy, not otb, not tyy

Stock

2020-07-20 21:28 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow get ready for news from BBC, UK

Stock

2020-07-20 21:26 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/704733

Australian media: suspected of being forced to work with top gloves from slave hands

Nanyang Mon, Jul 20, 2020 08:47pm-36 minutes ago
................................................


(Sydney, 20th) The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reported that a number of corporate regulators suspected that the rubber gloves produced by Malaysia's top glove group “may have been produced by slave workers”.

According to reports, top gloves products account for about 20% of the world, is the world's largest manufacturer of rubber gloves. Most of the rubber gloves required to prevent and control coronary disease in Australia are produced from top-quality gloves.

The US Customs and Border Protection Bureau issued an attachment order on top gloves on the 15th of this month, authorizing the authorities to detain all products unless the group "produces and exports products from the United States" or "proves that all products do not involve forced labor."

The Customs and Border Protection Bureau told ABC that there is reasonable evidence to show that there are compulsory labor practices in the production of top gloves. "According to the ILO's indicators, this includes debt slavery, severe overtime, seizure of identity documents, poor working and living conditions, etc."

Regarding the US's allegations of forced labor, the top glove finger issue may be related to foreign workers and claimed to be "resolved." "However, before January 2019, some foreign workers have recoursed to intermediaries for payment of recruitment fees. We are not aware of this."

In Malaysia, the most widely reported problem of labor rights violations is that intermediaries charge excessive recruitment fees.

Corporate regulators point out that this often results in the most common “debt slave” in modern slavery, and victims have to pay debts with low wages for a long time.

Top Gloves claimed that they had repaid workers in full for recruitment fees in the past few months. "We believe that it is in the interest of all parties to solve the problem as soon as possible. In the current era of the coronary disease pandemic, we hope that the rubber gloves produced can reach the places where they are most needed."

Top-level gloves have not yet responded to ABC's queries.

"Corporate Responsibility Resource Center" Australia, New Zealand and Pacific regional representative Sinclair said: "Those Australian companies that import Malaysian products should really pay attention to the relevant issues. We know there (Malaysia) has a long history of bad behavior. "

Stock

2020-07-20 21:24 | Report Abuse

Australian media: suspected of being forced to work with top gloves from slave hands

Nanyang Mon, Jul 20, 2020 08:47pm-36 minutes ago
...................................................


(Sydney, 20th) The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reported that a number of corporate regulators suspected that the rubber gloves produced by Malaysia's top glove group “may have been produced by slave workers”.

According to reports, top gloves products account for about 20% of the world, is the world's largest manufacturer of rubber gloves. Most of the rubber gloves required to prevent and control coronary disease in Australia are produced from top-quality gloves.

The US Customs and Border Protection Bureau issued an attachment order on top gloves on the 15th of this month, authorizing the authorities to detain all products unless the group "produces and exports products from the United States" or "proves that all products do not involve forced labor."

The Customs and Border Protection Bureau told ABC that there is reasonable evidence to show that there are compulsory labor practices in the production of top gloves. "According to the ILO's indicators, this includes debt slavery, severe overtime, seizure of identity documents, poor working and living conditions, etc."

Regarding the US's allegations of forced labor, the top glove finger issue may be related to foreign workers and claimed to be "resolved." "However, before January 2019, some foreign workers have recoursed to intermediaries for payment of recruitment fees. We are not aware of this."

In Malaysia, the most widely reported problem of labor rights violations is that intermediaries charge excessive recruitment fees.

Corporate regulators point out that this often results in the most common “debt slave” in modern slavery, and victims have to pay debts with low wages for a long time.

Top Gloves claimed that they had repaid workers in full for recruitment fees in the past few months. "We believe that it is in the interest of all parties to solve the problem as soon as possible. In the current era of the coronary disease pandemic, we hope that the rubber gloves produced can reach the places where they are most needed."

Top-level gloves have not yet responded to ABC's queries.

"Corporate Responsibility Resource Center" Australia, New Zealand and Pacific regional representative Sinclair said: "Those Australian companies that import Malaysian products should really pay attention to the relevant issues. We know there (Malaysia) has a long history of bad behavior. "

Stock

2020-07-20 21:22 | Report Abuse

Once UK, Australia follow U.S and block TG gloves....

i really dont know what will be the spot order price of Supermax gloves

Stock

2020-07-20 21:17 | Report Abuse

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax has commissioned and undergone a Sedex Members Ethical Trade Audit (SMETA) audit by an independent auditor successfully and admitted as a member of SEDEX.
SEDEX is one of the world’s leading ethical trade service providers, working to improve working conditions in global supply chains. It provides practical tools, services and a community network to help companies improve their responsible and sustainable business practices, and source responsibly.
SMETA is an ethical audit format which reports on Sedex's four pillars of labour, health, safety and environment in reflecting good business ethics.


Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax now is the safer choice now due to sedex member. Tg might get another hit from uk activist so tg investor mus be prepared. Not fear mongering jus be prepared n pls update here also if got latest news coz many here also vested in tg.

Stock

2020-07-20 21:16 | Report Abuse

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 10:11 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax has commissioned and undergone a Sedex Members Ethical Trade Audit (SMETA) audit by an independent auditor successfully and admitted as a member of SEDEX.
SEDEX is one of the world’s leading ethical trade service providers, working to improve working conditions in global supply chains. It provides practical tools, services and a community network to help companies improve their responsible and sustainable business practices, and source responsibly.
SMETA is an ethical audit format which reports on Sedex's four pillars of labour, health, safety and environment in reflecting good business ethics.


Posted by freetospeak > Jul 17, 2020 11:55 AM | Report Abuse

Supermax now is the safer choice now due to sedex member. Tg might get another hit from uk activist so tg investor mus be prepared. Not fear mongering jus be prepared n pls update here also if got latest news coz many here also vested in tg.

Stock

2020-07-20 21:14 | Report Abuse

Rubber gloves entering Australia from Malaysia could be linked to forced labour, with US restricting imports

Posted 12 hours ago
...................

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-20/gloves-malaysia-forced-labour-us-detention-order-australia/12292708
......

Now Australia already zooming on TG....

next UK will do the same...they are very active on human rights

Stock

2020-07-20 21:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-07-20 21:11 | Report Abuse

Rubber gloves entering Australia from Malaysia could be linked to forced labour, with US restricting imports

Posted 12 hours ago
...................

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-20/gloves-malaysia-forced-labour-us-detention-order-australia/12292708

......

Now Australia already zooming on TG....

next UK will do the same as predicted by freetospeak

Stock

2020-07-20 20:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Stock

2020-07-20 20:00 | Report Abuse

i heard Comfort sells its OEM to its owner private company cheap2 so that he can sell like an OBM elsewhere with fat margin...

that was why he was selling Comfort shares earlier...

earnings of Comfort will totally disappoint market

some people are afraid of the supernormal rise in supermax share price and feel more secure with big established leaders like TG...it appears to more of a psychological factor till they see the earnings & compare

Stock

2020-07-20 19:44 | Report Abuse

What TG loses as a small % of sales volume as OEM, Super will gain big as an OBM with large % volume of its sales

Stock

2020-07-20 19:43 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/704409/cgs-cimb-research-retains-overweight-on-glove-sector

“Based on our estimates, Top Glove’rubber gloves make up c.13% of the US’s total rubber glove imports.

“In our view, this will likely lead to a spike in demand for rubber gloves by other glove manufacturers as long as the detention order on both Top Glove’s subsidiaries is in effect. Hence, we believe glove makers under our coverage (ex- Top Glove) will benefit in terms of higher sales to the US, namely Hartalega, Kossan and Supermax.

......

Lets not underestimate the above effects on the last name given above

Stock

2020-07-20 19:39 | Report Abuse

my only wish is the results of super to be released as early as possible...

that will rewrite the charts and whatever thesis/stories people are making now

Stock

2020-07-20 19:38 | Report Abuse

ha ha..thats what we call second level thinking... salute sifu free!

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 20, 2020 7:36 PM | Report Abuse

prepare to sell TG on strengthh n buy bak supermax..that is his underlying message.

Stock

2020-07-20 11:32 | Report Abuse

most likely TG distributors in U.S will buy from Supermax OEM at higher price than what supermax corporation OBM price in U.S...LOL!

Posted by freetospeak > Jul 20, 2020 11:20 AM | Report Abuse

Prob...i hope the 13% shortage can result in at least 13% increase in asp..lol

Stock

2020-07-20 11:12 | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/704409/cgs-cimb-research-retains-overweight-on-glove-sector

“Based on our estimates, Top Glove’rubber gloves make up c.13% of the US’s total rubber glove imports.

“In our view, this will likely lead to a spike in demand for rubber gloves by other glove manufacturers as long as the detention order on both Top Glove’s subsidiaries is in effect. Hence, we believe glove makers under our coverage (ex- Top Glove) will benefit in terms of higher sales to the US, namely Hartalega, Kossan and Supermax.

...........

exactly as i predicted earlier

Stock

2020-07-20 10:40 | Report Abuse

it means, one should never let go supermax at least till it overtakes TG

Stock

2020-07-20 10:36 | Report Abuse

did anyone calc just the OBM margin (minus the OEM), ie the own distributor margin contribution? From the analyst briefing table it appears 40USD/1000 gloves....

isnt that pure profit above the OEM suppliers?

5 billion gloves per qtr means, 800M/qtr contribution?

who knows...it could be that the 'distributor margin' which will be more resilient in the long run....meaning supermax share price has all the reasons to overtake TG like sifu freetospeak said

Stock

2020-07-18 22:06 | Report Abuse

500m per qtr he meant..

Posted by see2sea > Jul 18, 2020 10:05 PM | Report Abuse

Freetospeak Ntpboon...cimb is the real humble one. Qtr 4 356m.qtr 1 at least 500m x 4 = 2 BILLION considering asp peaked(unlikely) n no increase in caps(aug got new line). 1.5 billion is too little.

@freetospeak sifu, u mean Q1 2021 pure profit will be rm2B???? Please advise..omg..need top up more on monday before shoot up to rm30 at least

Stock

2020-07-17 22:01 | Report Abuse

A single asymptomatic covid 19 using lift without any occupant can infect 71 people:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-super-spreader-woman-lift-infections-china-heilongjiang-a9615886.html?amp

Please wear your gloves when using lifts