Nope, we are still not as confident as CPECC who has more than 50% stakes on the power plant and painstakingly engineered, procured, constructed the last 4 years and now about to commission it.....

DK66,

cpo just rose by 40% in last 2 months and share price of plantation stocks rose almost by 80% within the same period as if the cpo price will sustain at this level for the next 10 yrs (DCF valuation).

Jaks has a power plant under BOT contract with recurring guaranteed cash flow for next 25 years...but market is still hesitant on its valuation...guess its purely due to 'not so smart' market.

Tips to be patient:

Do not think much about the share price movement, focus on the progress of the power plant...

Keep visualizing the plant generating electricity soon and yourself the owner

This year means 2020.

To all those who bought Jaks and holding it presently....

Note that the steam blow test is scheduled on 4th Jan. Its as good as ready for generating power. The next few months is purely procedural activities for commercial operation.

Letting it go now is the dumbest mistake one can ever make.

At the ultimate worst scenario, it should hit RM 2 at 50% utilization rate. It should touch this TP within this year.

No where u can find an investment with such high certainty.

Good luck and wish everything goes well as planned with Hai Duong power plant.

Walao...very sexy picks from John sifu!

Uncle Koon also can

Philip Greta too...

Goh kim hock, duit etc..

Not forgetting Ricky Yeo and Jon Choivo

I really look forward for all the active i3 sifus recommendation for 2020, whether they underperform or performed well last year..does not matter.

All their ideas will be highly appreciated..

Icon sifu, yistock, tankw, john lu, paperplane, moneykj, updown, intelligent investor, otb, kchongz

Look forward for new participant as per below:

Vip: dk66, pjseow, sslee

Other elusive sifus:

3iii, stockraider, qqq3..kukuman n etc

Exactly as i thought. Thanks DK66!

Thats indeed a very very significant milestone.

DK66, If i understand correctly, steam blowing means the boiler would be generating steam from the heat of the coal combustion and the steam produced is passed through its pathway from boiler steam outlet to the exhaust chimney - only bypassing the turbine to avoid generating power.

Is that your understanding too?

Posted by DK66 > Dec 25, 2019 9:35 PM | Report Abuse

Steam blowing is scheduled to be carried out on 4th Jan 2020

On Pchem, wouldnt touch unless oil price can firmly maintain above 70usd/brl. Other downstream contribution due to RAPID will still take time. Recent rise appears purely due to oil price rise

Merry christmas n Happy new year sslee n all!
Your sensible points are always appreciated to improve i3 quality

i am just trying to work back on the steady stream of earnings for 25 years based on the capital invested for a certain IRR.

for that i need to know when i can consider the full cost of the project is invested and the interval to its first stream of earnings.

as if i am not mistaken, the timing between the full investment and the first stream greatly skews the IRR calculation

DK66, for the project IRR calculation, what is time difference (years) between the full capital invested and the first year of the return from commercial operation.

In other words, what is the NPV they will use "just before" the first year commercial return, such that the 25 years return discount rate to make the NPV zero is the IRR?

forgive me if i had used incorrect phrases as i am from non-finance background

congrats pjseow, thats superb return - more importantly shows how a patient persistent man you are. These characteristics is a great asset.


Posted by pjseow > Dec 19, 2019 11:26 PM | Report Abuse

Tomorrow is Friday . Many are already on holiday mood. With another one week to go , 2019 will end . It is time to take stock of the achievement or failure for 2019.. As for me, 2019 is a good year for me in stock investment. My total return is 26 % ytd. My top 3 investment are Dsyang ,mfcb, mfcb warrant and Jaks.. I had also invested in property and hotel for the past 12 years with fairly good returns but to me stock investment is still the best. My last 21years stock investment give me an average return of 18 to 20 %. I started with RM 170k in 1998 when the KLSE crash to 250 pt. The 18 to 20% annual compounded return will double your investment every 4 years. There are altogether 5 Four years within 20years. The final accumulated number will.be rm 170 x 2 to the power of 5 which is 32. The total is 5.44 million.

damn..i should have added more today

tips: before material you need manpower....foreign labour

Posted by Jokers2020 > Dec 17, 2019 11:53 PM | Report Abuse

beside IWC i think it is time to pick some Steel & piling company stock.For sure this project need them.So my pick will be Pintaras & Masteel..Any suggestion pick

tips: before material you need manpower....foreign labour

Posted by Jokers2020 > Dec 17, 2019 11:53 PM | Report Abuse

beside IWC i think it is time to pick some Steel & piling company stock.For sure this project need them.So my pick will be Pintaras & Masteel..Any suggestion pick

17-Dec-2019 17-Dec-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.150 1.150
12-Dec-2019 12-Dec-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.090 1.090
10-Dec-2019 10-Dec-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.120 1.120
15-Nov-2019 15-Nov-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.160 1.160
12-Nov-2019 15-Nov-2019 Buyback 2,000,000 1.160 1.160
12-Nov-2019 12-Nov-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.160 1.160
30-Oct-2019 30-Oct-2019 Buyback 500,000 1.080 1.080
29-Oct-2019 30-Oct-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.080 1.170
29-Oct-2019 29-Oct-2019 Buyback 500,000 1.170 1.170
25-Oct-2019 25-Oct-2019 Buyback 500,000 1.190 1.190
23-Oct-2019 23-Oct-2019 Buyback 1,500,000 1.190 1.190
22-Oct-2019 25-Oct-2019 Buyback 3,000,000 1.190 1.240
22-Oct-2019 22-Oct-2019 Buyback 1,000,000 1.230 1.240

https://vietnam-business-law.info/blog/2019/10/31/tariff-calculation-for-a-coal-fired-ipp-power-project-in-vietnam

my reasoning says when power output reaches 60% of the rated output, the IRR is in the range of 10-12% (referring to the range given by EVN for National Market participant from the link above as investor would seek that as the minimum return)

when it exceeds that, i.e at higher utilization rate (>60%) the IRR becomes an explosive figure

this explain Mong Duong II's performance

2-3% efficiency difference in terms of fuel consumption for the same energy kwh output. Does not matter when its a fuel cost passed through system. However, the boiler would definitely be costlier (higher capital investment).

I believe Mond Duong 2 is a subcritical coal power plant and its delivering strong earnings.



Posted by wesleylwl > Dec 17, 2019 8:27 PM | Report Abuse

does it being a subcritical coal powerplant make it less efficient in producing electricity and hence lower earnings than the VinhTan 1 supercritical coal powerplant?

Merican has only 15M shares left now

in fact the first beneficiary of BM is myeg...before the construcion companies itself benefits..

for myeg its immediate..for construction companies its like after 3 years via progressive billing...

BM news, means flood of foreign construction workers soon....thats indeed a mind-boggling sized project

and his tail 'cute Jon'

well said Philip - i sincerely hope Ricky considers your advice

https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf

chapter 9 - Financial, Economic Analysis, and Prospect of Project Funding

will provide very good information on IRR sensitivity to utilization rate, selling price and fuel costs

Table 9-7: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by power selling price

Table 9-9: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by fuel price

Table 9-10: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by operation hours

......................

Fuel price dropped by just 10%, can increase the IRR from 10% to whopping 20%! Appears to me the current fuel price had actually dropped by 50% from their original estimate.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

However, for the BOT contract, what matters most is the Table 9-10

These are perfectly inline with DK66 basis of IRR of 12% at about 6500 hrs/yr. The chart says 12.6% at 6600 hrs.

"my salute to DK66 on his meticulous derivations"

https://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/H29FY/000594.pdf

chapter 9 - Financial, Economic Analysis, and Prospect of Project Funding

will provide very good information on IRR sensitivity to utilization rate, selling price and fuel costs

Table 9-7: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by power selling price

Table 9-9: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by fuel price

Table 9-10: EIRR sensitivity analysis results by operation hours

......................

Fuel price dropped by just 10%, can increase the IRR from 10% to whopping 20%! Appears to me the current fuel price had actually dropped by 50% from their original estimate.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

However, for the BOT contract, what matters most is the Table 9-10

These are perfectly inline with DK66 basis of IRR of 12% at about 6500 hrs/yr. The chart says 12.6% at 6600 hrs.

"my salute to DK66 on his meticulous derivations"

The license was given to JAKS, they wont be a sohai like stockxxxxxx to get nothing from the Chinese (China Power)

JULY 8, 2011
............

https://www.reuters.com/article/vietnam-energy-jaks/malaysias-jaks-resources-to-build-2-25-bln-power-plant-in-vietnam-idUSL3E7I803820110708

HANOI, July 8 (Reuters) - Malaysia’s Jaks Resources Berhad has secured an investment licence to build a $2.25 billion coal-fired power plant in northern Vietnam, a state-run newspaper reported on Frid


JULY 13, 2015
............

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/07/13/jaks-project-back-on-track

PETALING JAYA: After several false starts, JAKS Resources Bhd
image: https://cdn.thestar.com.my/Themes/img/chart.png

’s 1,200MW power plant project in Vietnam is back on track with a bigger joint-venture partner, China Power Engineering Consulting Group.

“We are confident that this partnership will work out. China Power is strong financially. They own power plants in China and have more than 300 power projects worldwide.

“They have US$2.5bil in the bank with another US$3.5bil banking facilities. In addition, their parent company is a Fortune 500 company with assets size of some 200 billion yuan,” JAKS corporate strategy general manager Steven Ang told StarBiz.

Ang added that China Power had obtained all the relevant approvals from its government for overseas investments.

JAKS’ previous proposed joint venture had lapsed and it lost potential partners for the project a couple of times. The potential partners included China-based energy firms Wuhan Kaidi Electric Power Engineering Co and Meiya Power Ltd.

“When we entered into a partnership with Meiya Power, they were a Hong Kong company and subsequently acquired by a Chinese company. Following the acquisition, the company had a different direction and that’s why the deal did not go through.

“Wuhan Kaidi did not have the financial strength to take on the project,” Ang said when explaining the reasons for the fallout with its previous potential partners.

Last week, JAKS announced that it had signed several agreements to set up a joint venture with China Power to develop a RM7.05bil (US$1.87bil) thermal power plant in Hai Duong province, Vietnam.

The power plant, which was granted licence in 2011, is JAKS’ first foray into the Vietnamese power generation industry.

take OTB as a catalyst icon...dk66 is the diamond

Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 10, 2019 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

OTB asked me to follow his TA calls to re enter Jaks after I sold at 140

Little did he know that his presence in jaks is exactly the reason I avoid the counter

its no longer a projection , outcome which is even better than the projection had unfolded

....will reveal itself soon

DK66, thats the reason i mention that as the first point. Most people do not understand the meaning of IRR and especially for a duration of 25 years.

They miss out the duration factor and could not fathom the implications.



Posted by probability > Dec 9, 2019 11:00 PM | Report Abuse X

To appreciate JAKS, one need to do the following basic homework:
.............................................................

1) Understand what an IRR of say 10% means for 25 years with capital invested at 30 - 40% stakes of the equity ownership of the 1200 MW Power plant valued at US 1.87 Billion. Alternatively the meaning of a payback period of 8 years considering the depreciation of the plant over 25 years.

2) What Earnings does the above translate to JAKS for 25 years.

3) If the earnings is too impressive, question the economics of Vietnam government to provide such an attractive offer for BOT contract? How is it economically viable and why they do so?

4) Finally, figure out how in the first place did JAKS managed to obtain such a fantastic lucrative deal?

once you obtain the above answers, you may slowly start to appreciate JAKS. Then you can start verifying with other similar BOT contract power plant performance and earnings.

almost all the answers are available on DK66 articles below:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/blidx.jsp

the more you research and understand, the more you will be able to appreciate the sanctity of all the above.

To appreciate JAKS, one need to do the following basic homework:
.............................................................

1) Understand what an IRR of say 10% means for 25 years with capital invested at 30 - 40% stakes of the equity ownership of the 1200 MW Power plant valued at US 1.87 Billion. Alternatively the meaning of a payback period of 8 years considering the depreciation of the plant over 25 years.

2) What Earnings does the above translate to JAKS for 25 years.

3) If the earnings is too impressive, question the economics of Vietnam government to provide such an attractive offer for BOT contract? How is it economically viable and why they do so?

4) Finally, figure out how in the first place did JAKS managed to obtain such a fantastic lucrative deal?

once you obtain the above answers, you may slowly start to appreciate JAKS. Then you can start verifying with other similar BOT contract power plant performance and earnings.

almost all the answers are available on DK66 articles below:

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/blidx.jsp

the more you research and understand, the more you will be able to appreciate the sanctity of all the above.

Posted by DK66 > Dec 9, 2019 7:08 PM | Report Abuse

Nagachan, Thanks for sharing your knowledge. May I ask how do you know the IRR for Jaks is around 15%? Is your project also in Vietnam ?
------------------------
nagachan I am involved in a similar power project of the same size like Jaks (also under construction now). Basically all PPAs in Vietnam have to have the following to be bankable. BOT contract, fuel cost (coal price) passed thru. No IPPs will take fuel risk even in Malaysia. USD fluctuations not a concern as the tariff is index to USD even though is paid in Dong. The last thing is Dong convertibility which is guaranteed by MOF of Vietnam. In essence Jaks is a profitable IPP with project IRR around 15%. The only thing to worry like in any other business is Management credibility.

Posted by nagachan > Dec 9, 2019 8:47 PM | Report Abuse

DK66 my answer to you is Yes

sslee, DK66 was only demonstrating the impact of change in annual utilization hours on earnings. Its for comparison , not for absolute profit derivation.

That is for the local IPP not for foreign BOT.

If you really want to know the money they make now, you should see the below chart:


https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price

That's almost 50% Coal cost reduction compared the 6% due to auxiliary consumption you were stressing.

please put some effort to go through DK66 articles

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/blidx.jsp

make decision based on your own judgement

seek clarification on what you dont understand

do not buy based on what others say or the TP they give


Posted by Mrinvest0r > Dec 9, 2019 8:05 PM | Report Abuse

Can i still enter at this price ? What is OTB & DK66 long term tp ?

stockraider, i suggest you buy JAKS - its really another HENGYUAN in the making...but the price will never retrace - as its 25 years recurring income unlike crack spread

you know me - i never say things which are not true (at least from all the available information i have)

just with 20M investment now, he will recover his lost 64M

all he needs is some patience, 25 years of recurring income cannot be suppressed

i can access from your above link - no issues

I no longer have any doubt on JAKS.

The most important person who should read this is Mr.Koon. He cant go wrong by investing here. In fact he should sell Dayang and buy back JAKS.

you didnt get the point...i treasure amygdala's response to worries too...anxiety...serotonin loss..etc

its a tool

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Dec 6, 2019 12:50 PM | Report Abuse

That's why we are a different species. If you treasure those hormones, because your life is lack of excitement, great for you. = )

if the correlation data shows a minor advantage of the readers...does it matter?

as there is a lot of time invested for readings and researching..it does not come for free

anyway Ricky...there is nothing right and wrong strategy..all your fundamental valuations are highly appreciated...in fact its highly needed in i3...

but its often felt you overlook on the obvious - more influential information (which matters more) - i think thats what everyone is trying to stress

and i really dont like quotes from successful people's trait - thats pure bullshit

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Dec 6, 2019 12:47 PM | Report Abuse

You have my permission to try probability. You're spot on on cocaine brain. That's why the market is full of patsy.

I think you got it wrong on the other point. Sure there are probably many investors that love reading books but are losers in the stock market. But the habit of reading is unlikely to be the causal factor of their losses.

Which one has higher correlation: reading lead to success versus reading lead to losses in market? Your name is probability, you should know this. Maybe you don't.

just like i treasure the emerging information...and form a concept (fundamental) of its probable implications on the company's valuation

Posted by probability > Dec 6, 2019 12:43 PM | Report Abuse X

no amount of reading can equip me to sense the emotions market have with every revelations of new information to the market...if i myself do not have these emotions..testosterone..adrenaline rush...and dopamine outburst...

..

i shall treasure these hormones like my gods

no amount of reading can equip me to sense the emotions market have with every revelations of new information to the market...if i myself do not have these emotions..testosterone..adrenaline rush...and dopamine outburst...

..

i shall treasure these hormones like my gods

Cocaine brain? love it..

im trying to get hooked for a while so that i can understand it better

a brain that understands a cocaine brain may very well be the ultimate investor....(especially for capital below 10 million)

getting hooked on cocaine and getting hooked on books is no different

there are millions of investors who are as hooked into reading like Li-kashing , Munger and Buffet ....who are losers in stock market....as much a the cocaine brains who lost.

stop quoting this successful guys' traits as a causal factor


conclusion:
..........

bookworm and cocaine brain...lets not discriminate between these two in a bias manner

.

on point no.3, it wouldn't take long for them to make new lines provided demand is there...

on demand ..i think its all about capturing new market share..and they have the competitive advantage to do that