we can raise the fatality rate to even 50% by depriving medical assistance / treatment completely..

our objective here is to determine the fatality rate having provided full medical assistance with the latest proven drugs..

that does appear to be 0.2% level..1 in 500 and its likely to come even lower than that.

even WHO were careful to declare emergency saying purely on the account of largely populated countries having poor healthcare facilities

Post removed.Why?

Fear should be directly proportional to the odds one would be dying due to this virus....allocating a reasonable low amount of resources (brain energy) for prevention.

the below posting earlier reasons why you should not be worried.

But that does not mean one should refrain from doing the necessary activities to prevent...same goes to passive smoking.

With the current screening done at international airports....you can be as relaxed...just like you dont wear a mask beside a smoker to avoid passive smoking.

of course the equation changes when people infected in your country goes beyond a threshold the country can manage easily


..................................
Feb 2, 2020 8:34 PM | Report Abuse


every year people die of passive smoking : 660,000

for coronavirus to hit the same level, at 0.2% fatality rate, it has to infect: 500 x 660,000 = 330,000,000 people annually.

Coronavirus has to infect 330 Million people annually to cause the same death of PASSIVE smoking (not even smoking)

................

Thats like it has to infect 1/4th of the Entire China population to cause the same death rate in a year due to passive smoking.
(Provided healthcare is available)

.................

at the rate it is infecting Internationally about 4 person locally (outside China) for 175 patients who came from Wuhan...every 1 month..

it will only infect 50 local people outside China after a year assuming present screening at the international airports is maintained.

There is a reason why the website below calculates the same at 0.3%...its not without a meaning

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Mortality Rate
The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate (CFR) is currently estimated at around 2%, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, January 29, 2020

However, the WHO specified that this is a very early and provisional estimate that may change. Surveillance is increasing, within China but also globally, but at the moment:

We don't know how many were infected ("When you look at how many people have died, you need to look at how many people where infected, and right now we don't know that number. So it is early to put a percentage on that."
.
The only number currently known is how many people have died out of those who have been reported to the WHO.
It is therefore very early to make any conclusive statements about what the overall mortality rate will be for the novel coronavirus, according to the World Health Organization .

A prior estimate [3] had put that number at 3%, between 2% and 4%.

Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.

Once the province Hubei (where the epicenter Wuhan is situated) is removed from the calculation, the national (China) mortality rate drops to 0.3%.
=======================

Within the Hubei province, the mortality rate is about 1% when excluding the city of Wuhan (where it is 5.5%).

=======================

the pool sampled is large within China just excluding Hubei...best is if you can exclude Wuhan alone...

there is a logic why it was done and it was explained due to proper healthcare availability in time

....

this carries meaning to predict the fatality rate on actual scenario worldwide where proper healthcare for such patients would be abundant

no manufacturing and business activity can stop in china for a prolonged period.......

you cant stop people from consuming......

i predict the lockdown will be over within max 2 weeks

International companies based in china already officially gave notification that they are closed till 10th Feb.

The whole lockdown purpose is to checkmate the virus using space (1) and time (2).

(1) Ensure it does not have the space of less than 2 meter radius to spread to another

(2) It stays within the radius during its lifespan of 14 days

...........

Once (1) & (2) are done.... the spread comes to a complete halt.

Thai medics claim coronavirus break-through: Patient in 'serious condition' is declared 'disease-free' in 48 hours after treatment with HIV and flu drugs

11:41 GMT, 2 February 2020

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7957889/Thai-medics-claim-coronavirus-break-Patient-declared-disease-free-48-hours.html

Medics tested the drug mix on a patient who was in a 'serious condition' with the disease and within 48 hours they were declared disease-free.

we can't predict on short term insanity...but perhaps we can on long term sanity

every year people die of passive smoking : 660,000

for coronavirus to hit the same level, at 0.2% fatality rate, it has to infect: 500 x 660,000 = 330,000,000 people annually.

Coronavirus has to infect 330 Million people annually to cause the same death of PASSIVE smoking (not even smoking)

................

Thats like it has to infect 1/4th of the Entire China population to cause the same death rate in a year due to passive smoking.
(Provided healthcare is available)

.................

at the rate it is infecting Internationally about 4 person locally (outside China) for 175 patients who came from Wuhan...every 1 month..

it will only infect 50 local people outside China after a year assuming present screening at the international airports is maintained.

0.2% fatality rate means, 1 in 500 infected will be fatal

This is the fatality rate one can expect with a sufficient healthcare support availability.

Once they are able to contain the death rate within Wuhan with the new hospitals, the true fatality rate which should definitely be lesser than 0.5% will come to surface....

I think the media had grossly unaccounted on the reality...where the high fatality rate seen currently is purely due to compromised healthcare in Wuhan, where the Govn of china are choiceless to safeguard other region and bring the spreading into control.

The huge difference in death rate in Hubei region is due to the lock down by China government on Wuhan where they are forced to live with limited hospitals (healthcare).

...........

The govn is not allowing them to go out for medical treatment and instead building hospitals from scratch within Wuhan....

Purely to safeguard other regions. Pity the Wuhan residents.

Wuhan virus fatality rate outside Hubei is just 0.2%! This is a shocking truth everyone should know.

refer the table on the below link on the infections in China based on territory and fatality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

As of 30th Jan
.............

Outside Hubei, within China infections: 9692 (China) - 5806 (Hubei)
= 3886

Outside Hubei, within China fatality: 213 (China) - 204 (Hubei)
= 9

Fatality rate outside Hubei:
= (9/3886)
= 0.2%
======

The huge difference in death rate in Hubei region is due to the lock down by China government on Wuhan where they are forced to live with limited hospitals (healthcare).

...........

The govn is not allowing them to go out for medical treatment and instead building hospitals from scratch within Wuhan....

Purely to safeguard other regions. Pity the Wuhan residents.

Wuhan virus fatality rate outside Hubei is just 0.2%! This is a shocking truth everyone should know.

refer the table on the below link on the infections in China based on territory and fatality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

As of 30th Jan
.............

Outside Hubei, within China infections: 9692 (China) - 5806 (Hubei)
= 3886

Outside Hubei, within China fatality: 213 (China) - 204 (Hubei)
= 9

Fatality rate outside Hubei:
= (9/3886)
= 0.2%
=========

The huge difference in death rate in Hubei region is due to the lock down by China government on Wuhan where they are forced to live with limited hospitals (healthcare).

...........

The govn is not allowing them to go out for medical treatment and instead building hospitals from scratch within Wuhan....

Purely to safeguard other regions. Pity the Wuhan residents.

Wuhan virus fatality rate outside Hubei is just 0.2%! This is a shocking truth everyone should know.

refer the table on the below link on the infections in China based on territory and fatality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

As of 30th Jan
.............

Outside Hubei, within China infections: 9692 (China) - 5806 (Hubei)
= 3886

Outside Hubei, within China fatality: 213 (China) - 204 (Hubei)
= 9

Fatality rate outside Hubei:
= (9/3886)
= 0.2%
=========

the above is true provided the current visitors screening level is maintained internationally or if the number of cases from china comes down and becomes under control and screening is back to normal.

the above is true provided the current visitors screening level is maintained internationally or if the number of cases from china comes down and becomes under control and screening is back to normal.

Locals outside China infected will only reach 50 by end of the year
....................................................................

out of the 175 infected internationally so far...how many had no directly link with Wuhan from a close contact?

I think it was only germany and japan had wuhan member to local infection of about 4 people in total.

Thats just 4 people infected out wuhan members of 171 in a time frame of 1.5 months as these visitors had been travelling since the infection started early dec in Wuhan.

4/171 = 2% rise over 45 days...

For simplicity, just take the growth rate of 2% for 1 month, in 1 year (12 months), this grows to:

1.02*to the power of 12 = 1.25

This means the infection count size would increase by merely 25% at the end of the year max.

Thats just additional infection to locals international by max 50 person.
.......

I think above calculation is perfectly reasonable considering the available data

Locals outside China infected will only reach 50 by end of the year
....................................................................

out of the 175 infected internationally so far...how many had no directly link with Wuhan from a close contact?

I think it was only germany and japan had wuhan member to local infection of about 4 people in total.

Thats just 4 people infected out wuhan members of 171 in a time frame of 1.5 months as these visitors had been travelling since the infection started early dec in Wuhan.

4/171 = 2% rise over 45 days...

For simplicity, just take the growth rate of 2% for 1 month, in 1 year (12 months), this grows to:

1.02*to the power of 12 = 1.25

This means the infection count size would increase by merely 25% at the end of the year max.

Thats just additional infection to locals international by max 50 person.
.......

I think above calculation is perfectly reasonable considering the available data

If you see the incremental infection per day vs incremental death per day..

Fatality rate was initially 30 for every 1500 new infections...around 2.0%..
But the latest rise is 2500 with death of 40...meaning fatality rate dropped to 1.6%.

This means the true fatality rate is even lesser as only the serious critically ill would have approached health care at the earliest and there were many asymptomatic cases.

true fatality rate could be just 1.0% or lesser if proper healthcare could be provided on time.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/

If you see the incremental infection per day vs incremental death per day..

Fatality rate was initially 30 for every 1500 new infections...around 2.0%..
But the latest rise is 2500 with death of 40...meaning fatality rate dropped to 1.6%.

This means the true fatality rate is even lesser as only the serious critically ill would have approached health care at the earliest and there were many asymptomatic cases.

true fatality rate could be just 1.0% or lesser if proper healthcare could be provided on time.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/

after a month, the infection outside China is barely 170......98% of these are direct visitor from Wuhan...

That means the spread rate outside China is 0.02%!!

..................

thats definitely lesser than common flu rate

Note: the infection cases we are seeing in China are the result asymptomatic cases which are only surfaces during the incubation period of 14 days..

the actual virus is reported to be spreading in china since october 2019 last year and it did not originate from wuhan market alone..

so what we are seeing (2k cases per day) are long infected cases which are just surfacing...they are not the current rate of infection in china

see how the number appears after another week

Posted by Tan Sri Rick Walker > Feb 2, 2020 12:37 AM | Report Abuse

Probability! Yeah, i read about this! But what if coronavirus cannot be contained! Then it would be much worst that common flu! Maybe i am started to get panicky! Just my 1 cent!

Relax! Coronavirus is Less Dangerous Than the Flu, Says Epidemic Expert

January 31, 2020

All the panic surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus is misplaced. According to experts you should be worried more about the common flu.

https://www.ccn.com/relax-coronavirus-is-less-dangerous-than-the-flu-says-epidemic-expert/

The world is a state of fear after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared it a global emergency but one epidemic expert claims it's no more dangerous than the common flu.

The flu is more dangerous than the Wuhan coronavirus, according to experts.

In the U.S., 6.7% of deaths occurring during the week ended Jan. 18 were attributed to pneumonia and influenza.

So far, 2019-nCoV has largely affected the aged and the infirm.
The danger posed the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is not as lethal as media reports would have you believe, according to an expert.

According to a researcher and epidemic expert at the Oslo Metropolitan University, Svenn-Erik Mamelund, Coronavirus should not be a cause of panic [yg.no]:

People who aren’t usually anxious about the flu probably don’t need to be so concerned about the Corona virus either.

Affecting Mostly The Old With Underlying Diseases.

Per Mamelund, the demographic most likely to die from coronavirus consists of old who have other underlying diseases. Unofficial data from British and Chinese researchers showed that 39 out of 41 deaths blamed on Wuhan coronavirus were in people aged above 50 years [Quartz] . This is not vastly different from the flu which claims mostly senior citizens.

In the U.S., for instance, during the 2017/2018 influenza season, 83% of the deaths

Flu Will Kill More People Than Wuhan Coronavirus

Other experts have echoed Mamelund’s view. Vanderbilt University Medical Center’s preventive medicine and health policy professor, Dr. William Schaffner, recently told Kaiser Health News that “coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon” [Kaiser Health] compared to the flu.

Sheridan Memorial Hospital’s chief medical officer Dr. John Addlesperger, shares the same view that coronavirus is less dangerous than the flu [Sheridian Memorial] noting that influenza killed 35,000 people in the U.S. last year.

An emergency physician with the Hospital Corporation of America, Dr. Cole Sondrup, stated that the Wuhan coronavirus will be less fatal than the flu:

My guess is when the season is over coronavirus will have killed far fewer people than influenza.

Not The Time To Throw Caution To The Wind Though

That said, there is a lot that is unknown about the Wuhan coronavirus. The respiratory disease’s incubation period is also a cause of concern. The period can range from two days to up to two weeks. This allows it to spread undetected through person-to-person contact. Consequently, countries that have repatriated their citizens from the coronavirus hot zone are keeping their nationals in isolation for a number of days as a precautionary measure. France has, for instance, set a 14-day isolation period

Additionally, no vaccine for the Wuhan coronavirus has been developed yet. Thus the only method of containing its spread is physical containment.

sifu DK66 nailed it perfectly
.............................

spend a moment to think:

how painstakingly the workers built the plant, the risk they took during construction walking on plain I-beams, the toxic fumes of welding they breathed in, the sweat under the hot sun....for years...

the RM 8 Billion spent over the last 4 years and the pain Andy took finding a suitable partner 3 years ahead to enable a successful deal...

dont wash it away...

merely due to a virus fear with a fatality rate of 2%...passive smoking kills 660,000 people a year...and no one talks of the dangers & its prevention...this virus wont even kill a thousand this year.

when the plant is about to generate 600 Megawatts just a month away


Posted by DK66 > Feb 1, 2020 8:06 PM | Report Abuse

Everything including the chart, the price, the market, the coronavirus is uncertain, only the power plant is real and certain to operate in 2020. Choose wisely what to believe. Virus can spread disease and human can spread fear.

Do not believe anyone in i3, make your own decision.

Coronavirus: when winter comes, spring is never far behind

A letter from the Chinese embassy to the UAE on co-operation, compassion and courage

https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/coronavirus-when-winter-comes-spring-is-never-far-behind-1.972541

The situation is still serious. The novel coronavirus spreads quickly and has a relatively long incubation period, and this means the number of confirmed cases in China is still increasing. But at the same time, we need to be aware that its fatality rate is lower than Mers, Sars or even influenza. With the positive impacts of China’s measures rolling in, many experts predict that a turning point may come soon. Cities are in lockdown and grid management systems are in place to restrict movements. Medical teams from across the country coming to the Hubei province’s aid, donations and supplies are arriving in affected areas daily and new, specialised hospitals are nearly complete after only 10 days of construction. Thus far, 243 patients have been cured and discharged from Chinese hospitals, including an 80-year-old senior citizen. All of this is inspiring news. China is confident, capable and sure to win this war against the novel coronavirus outbreak.

.........................

Walao...even 80 year old got cured!

to me, there is an imminent danger that the fear will subside rapidly......

as i think we are the climax of the fear level now...i cant see it peaking further after monday...

as such i cannot see this as a sustained trend with a momentum in it...

there is not much mass in it to carry any momentum

provided you can time better than market..he he

you can already see the death rate starts to decline now...its not rising as much a the infection rise day by day...even 75,000 the max fatality is only 1500...so be it...

market will be quick to react...the current fear is only how china market will react on Monday...

by Tuesday...all fear will vaporize...

the best news is when fatality rate becomes under control and start to standstill...

then virus fear will definitely be OVER
........................

Its just a Chess game to check-mate the Crown-king (Coronavirus_

The fatality rate is just 2% and it needs close proximity of 2 meters to transmit (meaning only close contact).

Now the only headache from this virus is the asymptomatic incubation period of 14 days...

Once you physically block people away by 2 meters for 14 days, you basically eliminate chances of transmitting.

............

and thats what all these countries (US & Singapore) are doing after the greenlight from WHO....to avoid unnecessary psychological headache for months ahead in their own countries.

Better to suffer 14 days by making this draconian separation...then living with it later forever...

International scientist saying China had been way more transparent compared during SARS time by sharing the genetic codes of the virus immediately...

If you see the no. of infection outside china and determine the infection percentage of those who came out of wuhan before the lock down and extrapolate to the wuhan population...the number of infection cases being reported by China is tallying.

Since it takes 14 days (incubation period) for asymptomatic patients to show signs...we will know the true extent of infection within a week..calculating from 23rd Jan.

The final figure (within next week) will be likely double the amount discovered presently...and then would likely reach a plateau.

Its likely that China would impose the lockdown till the no. of new cases reaches the plateau. (Mid of Feb)

......

I see no surprises...and nothing is being hidden

i think investors are not afraid of the coronavirus outside china...its more of the global economic implication of china lock-down on its business activity...

the total new cases will reach a plateau within a week....as the count rise we are seeing currently are those that took place earlier before the lock-down/preventive measures...

also at high humidity level the virus has to compete with H20 molecules in order to get attached to the nasal mucus membranes and lungs alveolus sites to infect....

Indonesia despite having 270 Million population and likely more workers working abroad and mainland chinese within the country...recorded nil patients.

This is a stark difference to Germany where asymptomatic infection took place across person to person in 3 stages even before the first victim showed symptoms.

............

Definitely humidity plays a significant role on the spread-ability of the virus. Hotter climate close to the sea like Indonesia...ensures high humidity level. And high humidity is definitely preventing novel coronavirus ability to float for spreading which can only take place within a circumference of 2 meter (just 6 feet!) before it drops to the ground.


Southern Philippines is also similar climate and thus the cases there is also very low.

Researchers make strides in race to create coronavirus vaccine

International teams accelerate efforts to find effective immunisation method

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/01/researchers-make-strides-in-race-to-create-coronavirus-vaccine

when oil price drop due to global economic concern, RM will weaken....

this means cheaper coal price (higher incentive for EVN to raise thermal power plant utilization rate) and higher cash flow in terms of RM converted from USD...

Utility sector should be where the investors flock too..

market will eventually realize this

http://haiduongtv.com.vn/xem-tin-tuc/thuong-truc-tinh-uy-tham-chuc-tet-nha-may-nhiet-dien-bot-hai-duong-96587.html

Provincial Party Committee acknowledged that the investor complied with the commitment in June 2020 that will operate commercially, connect to the national grid of generating set No. 1 and reaffirm


http://tinhuyhaiduong.vn/news/Pages/new.aspx?ItemID=1749


According to the report of the General Director of the Group, the Plant has now completed Unit 1, and is expected to put into operation and generation by March 2020.

................

From the above two links, it should be clear that Unit 1 which is completed will be on operation for electricity generation by March 2020 with a buffer of 2 months (for any teething issues when connecting to the grid) to meet the committed deadline of June 2020.

Coronavirus: Why the latest coronavirus will struggle to survive

While the virus has caused alarm now, one expert believes it will struggle to survive in the summer months.

Jan 31, 2020

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1233100/coronavirus-outbreak-countries-where-is-coronavirus-travel-advice

The coronavirus has come at a difficult time for health officials, who may be struggling to contain the human-to-human transmission in the cold winter conditions.

Winter serves as an ideal breeding ground for viruses which have achieved the ability to spread between people, as they are more stable in cold air, and low humidity helps them to “float” for longer.

Speaking to Express.co.uk, he said: “Warm weather is not favourable conditions for the coronavirus.

“Other types of coronavirus infection is usually what gives a cold.

“Colds are more frequent in the wintertime as cold temperatures cool down the membrane on the nose which makes it easier for the virus to enter the body.”

...........

no wonder Malaysia is relatively immune under high humidity...

chances of spreading under hot weather is way lesser

yes Icon, i thought of the same thing earlier...hopefully it does

I think once they establish a Rapid-Diagnostic to even detect asymptomatic cases....

this coronavirus pandemic will be fully under control as this will almost completely eliminate chances of it further spreading.

Lets hope this will take place soon....

Home-based isolation.
....................

A system could immediately be established to take test samples from patients with concerning symptoms who are not severely ill and then send them home with protective respirator masks, instructions on hand-washing to prevent the further spread of the disease, and orders to remain at home until the test results come back. If hospital beds are still limited, patients found to be positive who aren’t severely ill could remain isolated and be treated at home and be only hospitalized if their condition worsens. This approach could preserve precious hospital capacity for those who need it most and prevent people who turn out not to have the disease from being infected in hospitals while awaiting laboratory results.


Rapid diagnostics.
...................

Another measure that could prove essential is the development of rapid, “point-of-care” diagnostic tests that do not require specialized equipment or technicians and can provide results within minutes. (They are similar to the glucometers used by diabetics to monitor their blood sugar.) Such tests do not yet exist for 2019-nCoV. But they could be developed and manufactured for use within months as opposed to the year or more it would likely take to develop and test vaccines for safety.

Similar to the way U.S. hospitals use rapid-screening swabs during flu season, these tests could be widely used at hospitals, checkpoints, and even households to screen anyone who develops suspicious symptoms or, if asymptomatic transmission proves possible, used to test every person every few weeks to ensure no one is unknowingly spreading the virus. Those screened positive should still undergo laboratory testing for confirmation. If used widely, rapid tests could also uncover unknown hotspots and help determine the full extent of this epidemic.

In previous epidemics, there was hesitance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and others to use such tests because of concerns they are not as accurate as laboratory testing. For example, such tests existed during the 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic but may not have been deployed because, compared to laboratory testing, they were not as accurate.

However, had they been used for first-line screening with confirmatory laboratory testing done on those found positive, they could have enabled more infections to be detected quickly and drastically reduced the number of patients needing laboratory testing. One study showed that they could have reduced the extent of the epidemic by a third, and another study had even more dramatic results. Thanks to advancing technology, these tests are becoming increasingly accurate; in the case of some pathogens, they are almost as good as laboratory-based tests for detecting infection.

The 2019-nCoV epidemic is evolving by the hour. We need to move swiftly to respond to this threat.

What Will It Take to Stop Coronavirus?

https://hbr.org/2020/01/what-will-it-take-to-stop-coronavirus

Contact tracing
...............

People who have been around someone with a confirmed infection should be identified and monitored. If they develop any symptoms, they should be isolated and treated until laboratory testing can be done to determine if they have 2019-nCoV.

Screening with clinical case definition.
.......................................

Because there are likely many unreported cases, we need to use a clinical case definition, a checklist of symptoms and risk factors suggestive of infection, to screen people not known to be contacts of infected people but who have concerning symptoms. Because 2019-nCoV, like SARS, causes such ubiquitous symptoms, a case definition includes whether patients with these symptoms have been in an area with known transmission or around people who have. Those who screen positive should be isolated and treated until tested and, if positive, quarantined until they are no longer capable of transmitting infection.

These strategies are already being implemented. However, if it turns out that asymptomatic transmission — transmitting the disease by someone who displays no symptoms — is possible, all contacts and people who have been exposed to areas with known transmission would also need to be tested, regardless of whether they show any signs of illness. This is not currently being done.

These approaches may suffice to contain the spread of 2019-nCoV in countries, such as the United States, where there have been only a few cases (all with links to recent travel to affected parts of China) and in places yet to be affected. However, in affected parts of China where transmission is already widespread, these strategies will face major challenges in containing the spread of the virus.

Since virtually anyone living in an area of transmission could have been exposed, any of the thousands who develop a fever or a cough each day need to be isolated and treated while awaiting laboratory testing. This does not appear to be happening in the Chinese lockdown zones where hospitals, some of which cannot even test for 2019-nCoV, are overrun and patients are being turned away without being tested.

Chinese authorities are setting up screening checkpoints throughout the country. In the city of Wuhan, the epidemic’s epicenter, they are rapidly building two large hospitals with a combined total of 2,300 beds for isolating, testing, and treating 2019-nCoV; they hope to have the hospitals operational within two weeks. But 2019-nCoV may have already spread so extensively that even 2,300 beds might not be enough in a city of 11 million.

What is more, it may not be possible to establish such hospitals in every affected city or transport patients from far-flung areas to these centralized facilities. In addition, diagnosing 2019-nCoV requires specialized equipment and personnel that may be difficult to scale to test the thousands of people who need it.

If people without symptoms are capable of transmitting the virus, it would be impossible to test entire city populations.

There might be a shortcut.
...........................

Instead of making antibodies in a vat, a US company called RenBio instead injects the genes coding for them into leg muscles. Antibody production in the body continues for weeks or even months, so these injections could be given to people to prevent infections as well as treat those who are already infected.

“Both are possibilities,” says the head of RenBio, Neal Padte. But this has only been tested in animals, so health authorities may be reluctant to try it.

There are a few existing small-molecule drugs that might help. For instance, an experimental antiviral called galidesivir developed for treating Ebola is active against coronaviruses, says its US maker, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. It has already passed safety tests in people.

“The company is in active dialogue with relevant US public health authorities to ensure that galidesivir is available to them,” says John Bluth at BioCryst, though he did not say how fast production could be ramped up.

Most promisingly, two drugs given together to treat HIV – called lopinavir and ritonavir – are already approved for human use, and in small trials they seemed to reduce disease severity and fatalities in people infected by the SARS or MERS coronavirus.

Doctors in Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, have already started a randomised controlled trial of lopinavir and ritonavir. “Given the scale of the outbreak in China, you would hope to get a to get a reasonably quick answer to whether these interventions work,” says Ball.

“The manufacturing for these is already in place and they are easily available.”

New coronavirus: How soon will a treatment be ready and will it work?
30 January 2020

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2232026-new-coronavirus-how-soon-will-a-treatment-be-ready-and-will-it-work/

So far, around a quarter of people infected during the outbreak of a new coronavirus have developed severe respiratory infections, and around 3 per cent have died. With the numbers still climbing alarmingly fast, many groups are already rushing to try to find treatments for the virus.

A vaccine that stops people being infected by the new coronavirus would obviously be better than any treatment, but that is some way off. “A vaccine would take at least a year, if not more,”
.........................................................
says virologist Jonathan Ball at the University of Nottingham in the UK.

The good news is that a few existing drugs might help save lives in the meantime. And new treatments could be developed in as little as six months.


There are two ways of treating viral infections
....................

One is to find small molecules that stop viruses replicating by interfering with viral proteins. Antivirals are usually simple to manufacture, and can be taken in pill form, both big advantages.

But 99 per cent of potential small-molecule drugs fail, says Ball. So developing new antivirals from scratch could take years.

The second way is
..................

to use the same weapons our bodies use: antibodies. Antibodies are large proteins that bind to viruses and trigger their destruction.

When people are infected with a new virus, it can take two weeks for the body to produce enough antibodies to fight it off. Injecting people with antibodies made by cells growing in a vat can keep viruses in check until a person’s immune response kicks in fully.

Antibodies are less likely to cause side effects than small-molecule drugs, because they bind more specifically to viruses whereas small-molecule drugs tend to stick to lots of other things as well. This means we should be able to find safe and effective antibodies against the 2019 coronavirus very quickly – the problem will be mass producing them fast enough.

In fact, a team in China has already tested antibodies against the coronavirus that caused the SARS outbreak in 2002, and found one that binds to the new coronavirus as well. But team leader Tianlei Ying at Fudan University told New Scientist it could take one or two months just to make enough of the antibody to start tests in animals and people.

There are two antibodies for treating the MERS coronavirus that have already been tested in people. The US biotechnology company that makes them, Regeneron, says they are unlikely to work against the 2019 coronavirus, but it will test them and others. While developing antibodies for Ebola, it took Regeneron six months to get to the stage where human tests could begin.

A Chinese company called WuXi Biologics announced in a press release that it is establishing a 100-strong team dedicated to developing antibody treatments for the 2019 coronavirus. It says it might be able to start mass production in a record four or five months.

By that stage there’s a chance the outbreak could be over or millions might be infected – in which case making enough would not be easy. There are not many antibody factories, says Ball, and they are all already busy producing antibodies for treating cancer and other diseases.