The sell down started close to the release date of this report. Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not. But I believe EPF's decision must go through procedures that allow only rationale purchase and selling, especially for high value transactions.

At the same time Fitch gave CPO poor rating, RM 3,000 / MT. That could put some weight on EPF's decision too.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/palm-oil-prices-to-weaken-in-2024-on-higher-output-20-11-2023

Although for us it is hard to believe and agree to that price of RM 3,000 /MT in 2024.

It is a very safe, high chances of success kind of investment.

I guess is fixed deposits in US. And also 5y and 10y US treasury bonds. When FED cut interest rate next year, bonds easily gain double digit returns.

I think not much left to sell... obviously they planned to sell before the ex-date, not after. Even if they continue to sell some after ex-date, that would be negligible compares to before ex-date. Their plan is becoming clearer.

Don't think they are going to sell all...

The pool must be big, return must be attractive and at the same time safe enough.

Guess what attracted EPF fund to go somewhere else?

At current price, 80% of chances are, you'll be smiling for at least 3 years.

Don't over stress yourself. Don't be like the greedy snake want to swallow the elephant. Measure your stomach and just take the portion that you feel comfortable with.

Assuming price does not change, buying at tomorrow your cost will be lower.

Now you can top up at 16.80 if you want. 😁 Keep some money for your lunch and dinner.

Aiseh... you miss the chance to sell at RM 19.98 to him.

Up 30 sen Mr. 20 ringgit pop up again. 🤣

I full until want to vomit already.

You not eat full ah 😁

Or maybe EPF close the tab aready, boss balik marah sebab selling durian cheap cheap when the boss was not around. 🤣

They are trying to find out what you think and then do the opposite. 😆

EPF was playing your mood 😂

JrWarren, why not until 1st Dec?

Amazonboy, well said, a new theory I learned today. 😄

For all that I can see, fundamental is still intact. But what I underestimated is the magnitude of sell down. So I think like what Lionel said, we'd better be prudent in our investment strategy. We can only "see" the fundamentals and technical, we are unable to "decide" the price.

And this EPF very cunning, everytime end of trading cancel all the sell order. 🤣

Ya, very surprising. What is the next surprise?

EPF flexing muscle 😂

Close to 10% yield.

EPF's target price 16.00 🙄. KClow take as much as you want now.

Recently Sime Darby output increases a lot. Hope it doesn't cause the CPO stock balance to increase too much. 😅

After dividend some other people will sell also... so the bear will probably stay there for another week.

I am very sure it is very bearish now.

One of the advantage EPF has is they have unlimited life span. EPF does not die at 70 years, 80 years or 100 years. Therefore their patience is unlimited when it comes to stock investment. They don't mind a value trap or low dividend payout, etc. They can afford to play value investment where they don't mind a very long time to realise the gain as long as they feel that could be finally a good gain. They don't mind if the stock skyrocket only after 10 years. Therefore EPF has a lot more good investment options than us. So I said we cannot rule out the possibility they move the fund to where they perceive to have greater potential. But what I believe more is gap between research and execution because I believe their biggest problem is to find a long-term good investment than facing a choice of allocating very limited capital.

What benefit would it bring to the directors if the shares change hand from EPF to retail investors? Most likely is that it already reach its target price to sell determined earlier on and they just carry out the plan faithfully. There might be a gap between research and execution. Probably they will buy back or sell more after they have updated their research. Or maybe they found some other more attractive plantation stock to invest since they cover many plantation companies, not just one. Under certain condition, less efficient plantation stocks profit more than efficient plantation although under steady market condition the efficient one usually profits more.

Let EPF push for higher yield... I am just curious how much EPF can do, how hard and how far it can hit and is authorised to hit.

EPF is selling while this buddy is withdrawing EPF money to buy back... 😆

Congrats

I hope Ipalani49 is not the EPF officer behind the trading.

Ipalani49, 40 + 40 = 80. Go pick some, thanks to EPF. :)

Hi JrWarren, I never worry about Q4. This dividend is announced just recently and I think cash balance MUST be very high and cash flow MUST be very strong in current quarter (Q4). What is really important is to know about 2024. The average CPO selling price is in uptrend 100+ every quarter from Q1 to Q3. And I think biggest leap will be in Q4 and next year average selling price to be 4000 or higher.

At that time do their current refinery capacity able to digest all the output?

Hi JrWarren, is that possible that directors already at this point of time have the information of commodity future contract for year 2024 which are not yet disclosed to the public?

They are not yet fully up-skilled. Imagine when they are fully up-skilled, what kind of output is that?

I suspect this too. As you can see the number of workers increased even after 24% of productivity improvement through mechanisation.

Hi Ahlian, there is another one:
The power of sustainable above average dividend yield which allow the stock to fetch reasonable return with financing. As I believe there is a opportunity gap there so this "lubang" will be filled very soon. We small investors will never have enough fund to buy 8 million shares of UTD that worth approximately 136 million ringgit that were sold since the announcement of dividend. So there must be other big fund behind the scene that are buying. Otherwise price won't be able to close at the same price 16.90 for two days at such volume. And those funds must have concluded that the value is considerably beyond 16.90 before they buy. As for selling, reasons could be many. So chance is thick that this is a buy opportunity. Also, the buyer wont surface until he has accumulated 5% of the total shareholding, unlike the big seller with above 5% shareholding is always on the spot light. This should be part of our thoughts too.

But I feel that it is difficult to buy in hastle because your faith should come from the homework you have done unless you are a gambler. I think it is better to research first before you buy, it is better to miss it than to on board on the wrong one. This applies all the time to all stocks.

Hemsly, if buy on 30th Nov (ex-date) will NOT be entitled for dividend.
My average purchase price is RM 17.10 from Monday to Today. Lower than Brothers' purchase price. And you all have plenty opportunities to buy lower than this price. But I am not the first time buyer you know so my average cost is not at 17.10 for sure. If it is not because Perbadanan Pembangunan Pertanian Perak is selling its shareholding the willing seller will be a lot less and will be difficult to get a ticket when outlook is so good. Maybe they need the fund to do something good, we don't know. Lionel, if you like to cruise, this is a better stock you could sit and cruise. And probably you won't be worry much in case you lost your laptop and cannot be connected to the internet for a while. It is worth for you to spend a few nights doing fast research before you buy though. If CPO price could maintain 3,800 for next 2 years will be great enough. The only risk is CPO drops deeply. There are diversified view on the CPO price next year but based on overall info that I could gather it is more likely to stay strong than weak. Every investment has a risk so you still need to do your homework.

Hi Lionel. Good to see you. Ya. A good place for long stay. If your plantation estate location is not so good, might be a good choice to swap to UTDPLT. If you really mean long term. If you are a planter who is facing replanting you probably feel the same.

While many are expecting discounted sales, the offer will suddenly dry up. I feel that this is to simply change the shareholding to the targeted investor. If going too long, it will attract other big buyers which is not what the seller wants. In the process, it also has the intention to flush out speculators (especially those who purchase using margin account), and also those who are worrying to have missed the opportunity to take profit. The seller does not have intention and determination to drive the price lower to 16.54. Other than that, I anticipate Q4 harvest will be significantly higher than last year and average CPO selling price will be higher than Q3. That's the main reason of the emphasis in upskilling new guest workers. Significant increase of peak CPO production achieved y-o-y in Jul-Aug is a hint.

I told ya. It was a planned sell down. I think I saved a lot of your money, some of you. I have something else to share. But not now.

Commendable result with "stingy dividend". Expected.

And by the way, my business is done. Enjoy trading.