Uncle is very powerful one. He can dictate the share price up or down. The best is we follow without a question. Must fully believe in him then you can make a lot of money. All our analysis of the company is crap.

I got few lots only at cheaper price. As you know, the price of share is mostly depend on demand created by big players in the market. He can stir up the prices to certain extend.

If all come in time ( Good results, dividend & bonus issue ) then we can expect limit up.

Icon8888. I tried to find out something new by thinking from the both sides. Be positive by sweeping dust under carpet or be opposite of positive . Wakaaaa

Again. I prefer to compare with TAAN. TAAN achieved EPS 8.25 cents with the share price higher than Jtiasa by 64%. In average, EPS of TAAN is much higher than Jtiasa. Why Jtiasa has been under performed in its plantation segment? It's most likely due to inefficiency in its operations. 30% CAG is rather unrealistic for the next 5 years.

Don't look down on Jtiasa. According to Uncle, it would have another 30% CAG for the next 5 years.

Jtiasa posted a good results of 2.05 cents per share in the last quarter. You can’t find any great plantation company to perform so well. Don't forget its FFB production would grow 30% CAG. You guys can imagine how well it would perform in near future.

It's not worthwhile to find more excuses if you want to be super investor. If you want find, there more than 100 excuses out there. What important is its share price up. The rest is history.

Something you may not know good tips recently. I heard that uncle has invested 100 million in Jtiasa. Some more, he may have another 100 million to back up so Jtiasa is guaranteed up up.

Your info is merely for passing time. It can't do anything with the movements of Jtiasa share price. You must know the information come out from whose mouth and who has more influential power to charge up the share price.

How can you compare that business tycoon with Jtiasa. That tycoon is a typical failure. You know Jtiasa historical data cannot lie. You must have solid proven records. The FFB production has been growing more than 30% for the past few years. The peat land of Jtiasa is guaranteed for the high yield.

Don't waste your time to do the calculation. You can't prove you are right because you are not able to drive the share price up. Uncle's Koon 30% compound growth is confirmed corrected because we must judge from the share price up or down to prove your power.

Oh no. You don't need a good forecast for next few years. It's not so important. What most important is Uncle Koon supported behind. The rest is pretty issues.

Nothing wrong in this stock. It could be something wrong with our valuation.

Plantation is only a small operation to WTK at this time with FFB production 17.5k in year 2013.

(Reuters) - The El Nino weather pattern that can trigger drought in some parts of the world while causing flooding in others is increasingly likely to return this year, hitting production of key foods such as rice, wheat and sugar.

El Nino - the Spanish word for boy - is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years. The worst on record in the late 1990s killed more than 2,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage.

A strong El Nino can wither crops in Australia, Southeast Asia, India and Africa when other parts of the globe such as the U.S. Midwest and Brazil are drenched in rains.

While scientists are still debating the intensity of a potential El Nino, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology and the U.S. Climate Prediction Center have warned of increased chances one will strike this year.

Last month, the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization said there was an "enhanced possibility" of a weak El Nino by the middle of 2014.

"The world is bracing for El Nino, which if confirmed, could wreak havoc on supply and cause prices of some commodities to shoot up," said Vanessa Tan, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

Any disruption to supply would come as many crops have already been hit by adverse weather, with the northern hemisphere in the grip of a savage winter.

The specter of El Nino has driven global cocoa prices to 2-1/2 year peaks this month on fears that dry weather in the key growing regions of Africa and Asia would stoke a global deficit. Other agricultural commodities could follow that lead higher if El Nino conditions are confirmed.

BAD BOY

"Production estimates for several crops which are already under stress will have to be revised downwards," said Phillip Futures' Tan.

"Wheat in Australia may be affected by El Nino and also sugar in India."

In India, the world's No.2 producer of sugar, rice and wheat, a strong El Nino could reduce the monsoon rains that are key to its agriculture, curbing production.

"If a strong El Nino occurs during the second half of the monsoon season, then it could adversely impact the production size of summer crops," said Sudhir Panwar, president of farmers' lobby group Kishan Jagriti Manch.

El Nino in 2009 turned India's monsoon patchy, leading to the worst drought in nearly four decades and helping push global sugar prices to their highest in nearly 30 years.

Elsewhere in Asia, which grows more than 90 percent of the world's rice and is its main producer of coffee and corn, a drought-inducing El Nino could hit crops in Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and China.

And it could deal another blow to wheat production in Australia, the world's second-largest exporter of the grain, which has already been grappling with drought in the last few months.

El Nino could also crimp supply of minerals such as gold, nickel, tin, copper and coal if mines flood or logistics are disrupted.

In North America, crops in the U.S. Pacific Northwest could suffer as El Nino tends to cause rain to the area, with the major white wheat region already abnormally dry.

But El Nino doesn't spell bad news for all farmers. It could bring rain to drought-hit California's dairy farms and vineyards.

"El Nino has a bad connotation, undeservedly so in the U.S.," said Harry Hillaker, state climatologist in Iowa.

"Given the water supply issues they are having in California, more rain would be helpful."

And in Central America, while dryness associated with El Nino would curb coffee production, it would also help drive back the leaf rust that has blighted crops in the region.

Finally, KSL is back to resume bull run before the announcement. Go Go Go!

Nothing is guarantee. This is the risk in investing worthwhile to take at least to me.

Equity investment is an art. Uncle Khoon has mastered it

" Equity investment is an art as well as a science. The selection of an underlying is an art and selecting the right strategy to participate is a science. Clients often ask us: 'How do I participate in equities? Markets are near all-time high. Should I invest now or wait for the markets to correct? There is a lot of uncertainty in the markets', etc.

My reply to them is that equity markets are always going to be uncertain, that there will always be volatility. But that is why equities give higher returns than other asset classes. Play smartly and take the benefit of volatility. "

Again, theoretically, I believe INNO is the most undervalue stock in plantation sector. Wakaaaa

Icon8888. Stock market has been always behaving irrationally and full of emotions. Sometimes, we can't make a lot money if we know or foresee the factual too early. That's why some stocks are overvalue whereas some undervalue. People goreng this and that to make money.

Be patient. 4 more days to go. The different between 20 & 22 cents is only 10%. If the quarterly results is fantastic then we would strike a jackpot. If not then back to normal lor. What really support my claim is its unbilled sales worth 573 million.

It's the truth. I'm not lying or abuse anything. I am just imagined myself thinking from another perspective.

You must be kidding. You want me to teach you when you need to abandon ship? I feed you with spoon and now you ask me when you can to swallow the food in your stomach. You are not toddler. Just do it yourself man.

I told you already. I did not ask you to buy nor wanted your support. I got plenty of money. I just wanted to remind you the growth of FFB production for the past few years. Why you guys think negatively? It's mentality making a difference man.

You are a small fly. You would never understand what's in a super investor mind. Making money is just as simple as eating peanut to me. You don't know the real secret of investing. You see my solid track records.

You know how much capital I pump into a single stock. It's 100 million RM . it's not 100 million Rupiah. How can a small capital stock able to defend my attack? It would shot to sky high with my small portion of capital . I am a super investor. It's a different ball game. I have to look for big capital stock.

Back to my question again. Why you are so greedy? I asked you guys to buy at 2.00 and if you follow, you would pocket 25% profit less than 3 months.

That's why I said you are too rigid. You don't know the market trend? CPO price down down down few years back and you wanted to keep those shares under your bed. That's why you are a normal investor. Wakaaaa

You would never make a lot of money if you behave rational. Don't be too rigid. Sometimes, We need to be irrational.

You guys don't know how to behave properly. Why don't be stupid a bit . Listen to me, follow me then you are able to make a lot of money. To be a super investor, you must know when to follow trend and the right person.

Why you want to be so greedy? I have given you 25% ang pau and you still want more from me.

He has his point. We must ignore some petty issues like low FFB production, low margin, high debt & etc. In order to make money, we must see who is behind driving share price up. He told us many many times that he has been on the board cruising comfortably. Why you guys worry so much? Give ang pau to you guys also wanted to complain. Sigh.

Share price of illiquid counter is normally claimed up this way. Hope it would announce good results this week.

FFB production 1,063,500mt (70,900 hectare x 15mt) per annum if we take an average 15mt yield per hectare.

wmliang.

maximum scenario for Jtiasa's FFB production 1,772,500 MT/annual ( 70,900 hectare x 25MT )

Extracted from Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) manual:

Plantation companies with peatland development however reported
that not all their peat estates are yielding equally. Especially low
yields have been recorded on the more woody peat in Sarawak.

The actual achieved FFB yields of prime age oil palms on deep
peat are very contrasting, ranging from about 30 to less than
15 mt/ha/year. Data from the pioneers of oil palm cultivation on
peatland, United Plantations, showed that their early plantings
on deep peat during the 1960s yielded only an average of 12.9 mt/ha over a 12-year period (5th to 16th year of planting).

The main factors affecting this high yield variation are peat type, land preparation,planting techniques, fertilization, water management as well as effective pest and disease control (Peter Lim, Pers. Comms.). Low yields are also experienced by smallholders (who often have little access to financial and technical resources) and the lack of BMP implementation.

It is important to note that a proper drainage system with effective water management structures are crucial to maximize oil palm yield on peat and also to minimize GHG emissions and peat subsidence, which
is vital for prolonging the economic life span of the developed peat.

I am a bit sceptical the claim " FFB production will increase by about 30% per year compound for the next 5 years. ". We can't deny that FFB production has been growing tremendously for past few years. It does not make sense to presume that Jtiasa would grow at this compound rate in future. It is vey unlikely to achieve 30% compound growth from year 2015 onward.

FFB production
Year 2013 - 665,000 MT ( Actual )
Year 2014 - 843,000 MT ( 27% growth )
Year 2015 - 1,002,000 MT ( 19% growth )
Year 2016 - 1,132,000 MT ( 13% growth )

My calculation is based on the mature area of actual planted area of each year with an annual FFB yield from 6MT to 21MT of the trees age.

With the Wilmar's policy, it would certainly reduce the growth planting on peat land to certain extend which will eventually limit over supply of oil palm in mid.

Not much affected as most of its land bank has been planted with oil palm.

According to the shareholders list as at 29 Mar 2013, top 30 largest shareholders represents 94.95% of the entire share capital. The remaining 5% shareholders or 3,900 hold less than 9 million shares in the market.

Majority of the shareholders know the future value of Inno. They won't dispose more at current prices. You would be very lucky if able to collect more at cheap price.

Recently, some investors were purposely sold down at the price 2.4 plus for a while. I did not manage to get it at such a cheap price. It seemed that someone intended to wipe out weak holders temporary.

Theoretically, this is one of the most undervalue plantation company. Not many notice because it trades at PER 600x. I believe that it would trade above 2.00 in next few months provided CPO price stays above 2600.

PCR ( Price Cpo Ratio). It's a term use by me only.

( [ planted hectare x FEB yield per hectare x OER ] x RM 1 for every increase in CPO price] / number of ordinary shares

This ratio is to make a comparison purpose for planted area. The lower of its value, potential is higher. Of course, the results may not seems reasonable if you compare with those companies owning big portion of old mature area.

INNO PCR
1.69/ [ ( 13,000 hectare x 21MT x 20%OER ) / 188,000 ] = 5.83x

SOP PCR
6.08 / [ ( 63,261 hectare x 21MT x 20%OER ) / 443,000 ] = 10.4x

IJM Plant PCR
3.31 / [ ( 46,761 hectare x 21MT x 20%OER ) / 802,000 ] = 9.37x

Icon8888. Normally, i would do a simple screening of some plantation company with a ratio almost similar with PER. I would call it PCR.

Market share price / [ [ planted hectare x annual FFB per hectare x OER ]/ number of ordinary shares /1000].

Sabah

speakup. After you have done a proper analysis, you would understand why it's worthwhile to buy INNO even at PER 600x. This is the magic in stock market.

If I am not mistaken, theoretically INNO could be the lowest forward PER among the plantation companies if you base on the your valuation method.

Well done.

The EPS would be slightly lower this year since INNO has not completed its palm oil mill. How you get the basis for costs RM 1400/MT? thanks

You can see the growth of plantation division. Turnover growth is almost 100% when comparing between Sep 13 & Mar 13. The turnover and profit would be higher in final quarter. It indicates that INNO has just started enjoying good harvesting time.

Plantation division

Turnover:
30 Sep 13 - 8,465,000
30 Jun 13 - 6,290,000
31 Mar 13 - 4,441,000

Profit / (Loss):
30 Sep 13 - 3,038,000
30 Jun 13 - ( 132,000 )
31 Mar 13 - ( 1,562,000 )

EPS:
31 Mar 13 - 1.38 cents
30 Sep 13 - ( 0.13 cents )
30 Jun 13 - ( 0.87 cents )