No worry. Experts would certainly make a comeback after the price drops to realistic level. haha

13132323. Market cycle up and down offers us the opportunity to make profit. Sold when it flied to unrealistic high in such a short time. Big players won't let go goreng Asiapac easily. I am expecting good news in coming months.

No change in business fundamental. It is a healthy correction retreating to 25 cents after hitting new high of 32 cents. I will collect back ticket gradually at this level.

Icon. I guessed it would generate a net profit above RM 10 million annually from Maintenance Charges. After reading " Cashflow projections for TRIplc UiTM concession "...

Thanks for your informative article. I was actually looking for more information of Maintenance Charges under Uitm concession project. It seems that future net profit is not so impressive for Triplc.

Reserve stays at negative or RM94.6 million even after taken into account exceptional gain from disposal of land in year 2012. It may need to sell some lands to pare down the accumulated losses. Without sufficient profit, the company is not a able to frank dividends unless it opts for capital repayment.

Price shot up by more than 50% in less than a month. It's a handsome profit for those who bought at 20 cents. I locked profit early but am still happy as Asiapac achieved my target price in such a short time.

Your blogging on the past few property companies is very informative. I will keep it for my future reference. I don't have to do work so hard to compile the data. Thanks.

Icon8888. Your target to generate 100% returns in 3 year time is too slow. Based on your blogging on the past few property companies price performance, 100% returns should be able to achieve in less than 6 months.

He is the smartest investor in i3investor. He is the only one who has discovered the gem. What a greatest discovery in the history. I am eager to know more on how it works but... It seems like a marketing gimmick to attract public attention. There could be many assumptions or conditions behind to support his claim.

After going through a tough period Ytlland is finally joined the property counters rotational play at this time. Hope it would move up further.

Target achieved. I locked some profit.

" Uitm is part of the 23 years concession the Group
secured in 2010 whereafter, upon the completion of
the construction work, maintenance works would be
carried out for a period of 20 years. As of to-date, the
construction of this project is near completion. "

The construction of Uitm will be completing in Apr 14. The revenue and profit is expected to be fully recognized in this 2 quarters.

What's the future prospect of Triplc? Is it maintenance works a lucrative business?

It reminds me of " Business cycle, economy expansion and recession are natural phenomena in market economy, as natural as low and high tides. Recession is a natural mechanism of clearing the economy of inefficient units and a mechanism of restoring economy equilibrium after the economic growth induced turbulence. ". I prefer to take a break for holiday. :)

I would expect Asiapac to perform better in the next few quarters given huge unbilled sales.

Asiapac financial performance for the past few quarters / years:

Turnover
Qtr 30-12-13 - 80m
Qtr 30-9-13 - 86m
Qtr 30-6-13 - 36m
Qtr 31-3-13 - 44m
Qtr 31-12-12 - 32m
Qtr 31-9-12 - 12m
Qtr 30-6-12 - 15m

Profit:
Qtr 30-12-13 - 8m
Qtr 30-9-13 - 9m
Qtr 30-6-13 - 3m
Qtr 30-3-13 - 6m
Qtr 31-12-12 - 0.8m
Qtr 31-9-12 - ( 0.3m )
Qtr 30-6-12 - 0.3m

EPS
Qtr 30-12-13 - 0.83 cents
Qtr 30-9-13 - 0.93 Cents
Qtr 30-6-13 - 0.31 Cents
Qtr 31-3-13 - 0.65 Cents
Qtr 31-12-12 - 0.08 Cents
Qtr 31-9-12 - (0.03 ) Cents
Qtr 30-6-12 - 0.03 Cents


Turnover
FY 2014 - 202m ( 3 quarters )
FY 2013 - 103m
FY 2012 - 89m
FY 2011 - 36m
FY 2010 - 102m


Profit:
FY 2014 - 20.1m ( 3 quarters )
FY 2013 - 17.6m
FY 2012 - 15.7m
FY 2011 - 11.4m
FY 2010 - 20.2m

EPS
FY 2014 - 2.07 cents ( 3 quarters )
FY 2013 - 1.8 cents
FY 2012 - 1.61 cents
FY 2011 - 1.17 cents
FY 2010 - 2.08 cents

Why I am willing to invest 45% of my capital in Asiapac:

1. Huge unbilled sales 508 million
2. Command a reasonable profit margin
3. Imago Mall will start contributing in near future
4. Potential take over target due to loose shareholding structure
5. PER: 6.2 times
6. NTA 38 cents

Tommylim, thanks for your invitation. I may plan a trip there to witness the opening ceremony of Imago mall as Asiapac is the biggest investment in my portfolio.

Icon. The operation results from plantation operation in Indonesia is fully consolidated in P/L. Profit portion of non controlled subsidiary was excluded separately under Profit /(loss) Attributed to: Non-controlling Interest

Icon8888. You seem our lucky star. There are few times you churned out the articles, then we make money. Thanks.

Tommylim, I top up another 30% since Icon8888 churned out the article about Asiapac. Asiapac alone is my biggest investment now. I am still sitting tight to wait for it to move up further. Cheers.

Icon. Great to hear that you would blog on Asiapac. I added 30% before your report is out. wakaka

The share price of plantation company is relied heavily on CPO prices movements. Corporate development or dividend are secondary issues. You can make money by buying any plantation counters when the CPO price break 3000 level.

乾旱導致棕果減產‧棕油價4月或攀3千
Sat, 22 Mar 2014
（吉隆坡21日訊）消息指出，大馬長達兩個月的干旱氣候令棕果產量大減，導致棕油提煉商減產，部份提煉廠甚至只運作一半產能。

加工棕油產品如精制軟棕油和精制硬棕油的產出減少，可能導致供應緊縮，影響印度、中國和歐洲買家。

一名交易商表示，目前沒有一家提煉廠是全面產能運作。這位交易商在柔佛擁有一家每日產能2千公噸的提煉廠，佔全國棕油產量的五分之一。

“即使你願意付出更高價格，也無法獲得原棕油。”

由於庫存降低，大馬3個月期原棕油期貨在2月份上漲近10%，並於3月11日衝上每公噸2千916令吉的18個月新高水平。

知名分析員米斯特里（Dorab Mistry）早前表示，如果厄爾尼諾氣候模式重現，棕油價格可能在4月份抵達3千令吉。

一名以吉隆坡為基地的交易商指出，供應極為緊縮，他在巴西古當的兩間廠，每日產能共2千公噸，最快可能在下週初暫停營運。

一家期貨經紀行的交易商指出，一些提煉商正考慮關廠，因無法獲得充足原料，到時市場供應將會緊縮。

豐益國際（Wilmar）相關提煉公司的一名員工指出，如果繼續供應短缺，其中一間廠將於3月杪停工。

他表示，短期內原棕油確實供應不足，其提煉廠自2月起便只運作55%產能。

印尼一家首要提煉廠的員工指出，印尼將於4月份起進入旱季，產量將降低。同時非法燒芭造成的煙霾和乾旱也令收成延後。

上週大馬大部份地區降雨，將可消彌干旱對收成的破壞，但種植公司表示，3月份的棕果產量仍受月初的干旱所打擊。

今年首兩個月半的大馬降雨量僅60至70毫米，相比往常為350至400毫米。

不過，大馬棕油提煉商協會首席執行員莫哈末嘉化阿末表示，這不會形成災難，除非關廠超過一個月，但這是不可能的。由於關廠會帶來重大成本，因此不可能完全停產。（ 星洲日報／財經）

Nothing to worry about unless CPO prices stop heading north due to vanishing of potential El Nino.

I would expect a FFB production growth of 10% as most of its young planted area acquired in Year 2008 & 2009 would enter maturity or prime stage.

FFB production
Year 2012 - 459,597 mt
Year 2013 - 424,502 mt
Year 2011 - 367,866 mt

They started to dish out FFB production since Jan 14. It seems Rsawit is more confident in revealing more information. All Jtiasa, Subur Tiasa & Rsawit are ultimately placed under the same Tiong's family. The management is not really that professional as what you said.

Icon. Another stingy company does not want to release more information of the company. If you look its acquisition few years back (> five years), Rsawit was actually bought many young plantation palm oil planted land. It's just you need to take more time to dig out those data.

Collecting at cheap price now especially Kulim-WC.

It's the temporary correction during uptrend unless dry weather spell and potential El Nino factors disappeared.

Kulim jumped into sea for bathing...to clean up dirt. It doesn't matter.

Strong support at 20 cents in fine tuning chart. Let see who would loose patient.

Big players wants to wipe out weak holders before moving to another level.

A part from improving in operation results of NBPOL, I would expect a foreign exchange gain in foreign currency loan given PNG-KINA against USD has been appreciated about 5% since 31 Dec 2013.

In fact, NBPOL was suffered loss in foreign exchange due to weakening PNG-KINA.

Extracted:

" Net Foreign Exchange Loss

The lower PGK-USD exchange rate has resulted in year to date currency losses of USD 24.9 million as compared to USD 12.0 million of currency gains in the same period last year.

The year to date net foreign exchange losses reported are comprised primarily of non-cash currency adjustments on the Group's US Dollar denominated loans. "

Information:

NBPOL is a large scale integrated industrial producer of sustainable palm oil in Australasia, headquartered in Papua New Guinea (PNG). It has over 78,000 hectares of planted oil palm estates, over 7,700 hectares of sugar cane and a further 9,200 hectares of grazing pasture; twelve oil mills; two refineries, one in PNG, and one in Liverpool, UK; and a seed production and plant breeding facility. The Company is listed on both the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange and on the Port Moresby Stock Exchange in PNG.

NBPOL is fully vertically integrated, producing its own seed (which it also sells globally), planting, cultivating and harvesting its own land, and processing and refining palm oil (both in PNG and the UK). It also contracts directly with its end customers in the EU and arranges shipping of its products.

NBPOL has high regard for the importance of its sustainability credentials and is active in proving its performance through its certification to ISO 14001 and its close involvement and support of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil ("RSPO"). The Company is a certified supplier of sustainable palm oil from its entire production base in PNG and Solomon Islands, under the RSPO guidelines.

I don't know the share price movement. If you look at Kulim's announcement of 4th quarter 2013 results under segmental information, NBPOL was actually suffered minor loss about RM 4 million back with RM 407 million turnover. I would expect NBPOL will contribute profit in coming quarter as CPO prices had been riding high recently.

Kulim's profitability is much depended on the performance of New Britain Palm Oil (NBPOL) which accounted about 60% of its entire turnover. Currently, Kulim holds 48% of ordinary shares in NBPOL.

When reviewing the performance of past 2 quarters, we understand that NBPOL was actually entered a forward contract to fixed the CPO prices for immediate next quarter. I would expect the performance of 1st quarter 2014 would be much better than the last quarter given forward contract CPO prices in the end of 3rd quarter was lower comparing with 4th quarter or about 8%.


Here's the extract notes from New Britain Palm Oil ( NBPOL's)'s quarterly announcement in year 2013:

3rd quarter 2013 reports:

" As at the end of September, the Group had 38,500 tonnes of CPO sold or priced forward into the fourth quarter at an average price of USD 853 per tonne. We are continuing with our established forward selling strategy where we believe it can deliver the best prices for the Group and have since added 29,000 tonnes at an average price of USD 886 per tonne, as well as 35,000 tonnes into 2014 at USD 905 per tonne."

4th quarter 2013 reports:

" As at the year end, the Group had made forward sales of CPO of approximately 76,000 tonnes of its 2014 production at an
average price of USD 922/tonne; as at 21 February 2014 the forward sales of CPO of the Group were approximately 121,000 tonnes at an average price of USD 927/tonne "

Tossing a coin is a simple way for investment or punting. It depend on the timing you do it. If you are able to identify the trend of an industry and follow by tossing a coin to decide which company to invest/punt, you would still laugh all the way to the bank.

It's considered cheap if you invest for longer term comparing with other plantation companies. U can't expect the company to generate big profit immediately. But the company is on the right track to make more money as its young mature palm oil would contribute substantially in future. That's why there are not many seller at this time even though the price has gone up by more than 20%. They know the future value of the company. In the next 3 years, it would offer a good returns provided CPO price stay at reasonable level.

icon. Your write-up is powerful man. There is one guy only selling peanut at 2.10.

I don't enjoy much abalone or bird nest. What I enjoy is treasure hunting. We will be able to hunt the treasure swiftly through sharing of information.

I am still doing homework on some property companies to get ready before the next property run.

I follow trend to invest ma. In fact, few months back, I thought plantation stocks would have gone Holland due to massive planting taken placed 2 to 3 years ago. The excess supply would flood the market this year onward. Who knows dry weather and potential El Nino joined the game. I have almost changed my entire portfolio structure. It is a very good opportunity to whack plantation counters now.

13132323. No comment. Both is almost reached the same valuation now.

Japan sees higher chance of El Nino this summer
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/us-weather-elnino-japan-idUSBREA2908B20140310

Cepat's mature plantation area is about 7,696 hectare only & NIL immature area.

RIP

That's why the share price traded at low price. lol

My INNO stake is more than GLbhd. Haha

A laggard. It's share price had dropped for the past few months. It will follow the steps of other plantation counters soon.

Exactly. It is going to have a good show in 2 weeks time. Big boy are heavily armed and ready for launching missile. Breaking 24 cents is a peanut job. Don't underestimate their power.