When someone sells, another must buy - hence, unless someone with deep pockets come in who is going to buy from LTH ? LTH sell to who ??? We retailers buy a few thousand shares considered macham a big investment already ! Somemore, if like me buy at 3.00 and see it dropping to 266 already panicky and scared like shit that there is something we don't know, something bad lurking in the background ..... not all got the same cool, steady analytical mind like hng33 :)

@Hng, yes, what you said makes sense ! Cannot anyhow call off one ! thanks once again for your ever cool and candid analysis. It helps when you see the horrendous slide in share price (without good reason). Regarding LTH, as of 25 Nov 2014 announcement to Bursa of their sale of 232,100 shares they still hold a substantial 9.7% stake or 40,101,600 shares; I don't see why they should indiscrimately continue to sell down their 9.7% stake in this current bad patch - to do so is akin to cutting your nose to spite your face ! LTH not so stupid, I think.

@Hng, thanks ! You are cool:) Myself just wondering what if they goestarn gear and say call off the deal, then how ???

@hng33, most of you all keep saying "Puncak fundamentally still unchanged, awaiting water assets disposal and reward special dividend." ........... looking at the steep fall, what if the sellers know more than this ? Otherwise, just because of a non-syariah compliant labelling - it can't be so severe a selldown ! I also blur

this is horrendousssss ! 275 ...............

Minority shareholders of OSK no need to hope and also no need to pray ....

Do any of you know whether CIMB and RHBC will remain listed individually after merger or will they both be merged and only one listed and renamed as CIMBRHBC or will a new MegaBank be newly created after buying out MBSB and listed as MEGAISLAMIC BANK after the merger ?

hi azlan, once OSKH they sell rhb stake for cash, then we all fatt fatt instead of have to worry - reason is they must offer you a "good" price if not how to acquire all of pjdev ? It's always the acquiring company must pay a good price in order to acquire another company.

will cimb and rhbc be delisted after the merger exercise is completed and will there be a new MEGABANK listed and our existing shares exchanged for this new listed MEGABANK ? I'm a bit lost here .........

Hi GHeekong, I enjoyed your very well thought out comments ! Thanks

@Gheekong, thanks ! I think highly of your astute comments/postings on this OSK thread and please do continue to share your observations and opinions for all of our mutual benefits ..... cheerios !

@Gheekong, thanks for your very constructive and valuable comments. None of us can be sure of the outcome at this moment but if you take a moment to see the price action since the 9 July 2014 the picture is pretty clear. The biggest boy in the 3-way combo i.e CIMB spent most of its time under it's reference price of RM7.28; in fact even with the purported rumour on 28 Aug 2014 as reported in The Edge that this was going to be a doggie-style merger i.e RHBCap taking over CIMB instead of the original full-frontal CIMB taking over RHBCap - it could only spend at most miserable 5 days (mainly on 28 Aug itself !) and most of it on much below average volume (using the 12 days volume-moving average). In contrast , look at the price action of RHBCap (which has the most relevance in connection with OSK's share price and valuation) - except for a brief "one day kiss" on 18 Sept to RM8.73, it has spent it's entire time hitherto way above it's reference price of RM8.76. As for MBSB (the problem kid for our EPF), piggying on the backs of CIMB/RHBCap combo, it has also been hovering above it's reference price of RM2.22. Hence, in arriving at the "so called fair price", for OSK for both scenarios, we have to keep the "reference price" of all the 3 relevant parties as well as our OSK in mind. OSK's closing price was RM 1.93 on the 8 Jul 2014. Although it is not a party to this 3-way merger of CIMB/RHBCap/MBSB to create a very strong Islamic banking entity, please bear in mind OSK has been strong and resilient throughout these past 76 days and has remained so not only well above it's reference RM 1.93 closing price on 8 Jul 2014 but also remained well above its upside gap ( 2.00 to 2.13) created on 10 July 2014 when the merger was formally announced by the above 3 parties. Of course, the technical analyst may well point out that it is highly possible that this gap may get filled if and when there is "no good news" regarding the merger discussions ( in about 18 days time). However, my own take is that this intended merger is serious business (the instruction to do so is probably form "higher ups; just my educated guess as it has been long overdue for a consolidation of the banking sector - 9 banks and MBSB is just too many, individually too weak and smallish)). Also, bearing in mind this is no play play exercise, it is unlikely that the whole thing will get scuttled just because of unhappiness or objections from Aabar or OSK - these 2 each holding approximately 20% and 10% respectively in RHBCap are no impediments so long as there is a will to see this through. I am hopeful the above merger exercise will go through and this will be just the beginning of a very exciting development which may see Malaysia with 3 strong and well capitalised banks that can compete not just in South East Asia but also beyond to whole of Asia. Singapore has had a leg-up in this respect and you can see they now have 3 really solid banks with foot prints in so many parts of Asia ! However, in the unlikely event that the whole thing collapses or get called off, I think OSK will not collapse back to the RM1.75 level mentioned by Gheekong. I know others have harped on OSK's valuation in this thread before - do your own calculations and good luck to those vested. 10 Oct is not so far away - patience is key here !

looking like low can get lower - price action very very weak in line with weak cpo price action ....... 3.65 you think can still buy ?

Alex, don't you think you should mention the huge debts also ??

@keelin : your source quoted is as of 22 November 2013 - now we ARE at 25 August 2014 .......... different story right ? ?

@Beginner1989, even it drops to 3.25 low it is still comparatively very "expensive" considering that Kulim all time high of RM 16.00 in Feb 2011 is equivalent on an adjusted basis at RM3.25 (after its 4 for 1 bonus issue, Special Dividend of 90.94 sens etc ). So imagine if you plunge in and buy at 3.25, you are no better off than those who plunge in at its all time high of RM 16.00 in Feb 2011 ............ also CPO just crashed below the RM 2,000 pmt level - this does'nt bode well at all for not just Kulim, but also all other plantation counters ! Do be careful .... firendly advice from an old bird :)

@ Shabuddin apa macham lah it's late august now don't hope for el nino - it is reportedly a non-event this time ! even if got, will be a very mild one.....
@Ring, low can get lower, that's the scary part ..... with CPO nearing RM 2000 or even lower, things are gloomy at best for all plantation companies not just the "behemoths" !

richie, ha ha ha not enough can always buy from Singapore nearby; YTLP owns a huge one in Seraya and can supply as much as you want - but , must pay more !

Smartly, I not sure how you can tell one is "direct deal" and the other is "open market" ..... I reproduce both for all to see, maybe I cock-eye can't see the obvious ???
---------------------------
Notice of Person Ceasing (29C)

YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD

Particulars of substantial Securities Holder

Name AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD-SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA
Address TINGKAT 4, BALAI PNB, 201-A, JALAN TUN RAZAK, 50400 KUALA LUMPUR
NRIC/Passport No/Company No. 766894-T
Nationality/Country of incorporation MALAYSIA
Descriptions (Class & nominal value) ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH
Date of cessation 27/06/2014
Name & address of registered holder AMANAHRAYA TRUSTEES BERHAD-SKIM AMANAH SAHAM BUMIPUTERA
TINGKAT 4, BALAI PNB, 201-A, JALAN TUN RAZAK, 50400 KUALA LUMPUR
Currency Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Number of securities disposed 15,000,000
Price Transacted ($$)
Circumstances by reason of which a person ceases to be a substantial securities Holder SALE OF SHARES
Nature of interest DIRECT
Date of notice 27/06/2014

Announcement Info
Company Name YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
Stock Name YTLPOWR
Date Announced 1 Jul 2014
Category Notice of Person Ceasing to be a Substantial Shareholder Pursuant to Form 29C of the Companies Act. 1965
Reference No YP-140701-495D8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Changes in Sub. S-hldr's Int. (29B)

YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD

Particulars of substantial Securities Holder

Name EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD
Address TINGKAT 19,BANGUNAN KWSP,JALAN RAJA LAUT,50350 KUALA LUMPUR
NRIC/Passport No/Company No. EPF ACT 1991
Nationality/Country of incorporation MALAYSIA
Descriptions (Class & nominal value) ORDINARY SHARES OF RM0.50 EACH
Name & address of registered holder CITIGROUP NOMINEES (TEMPATAN) SDN BHD - EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FD BD (KAF FM)
Details of changes

Currency: Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)

Type of transaction Date of change
No of securities
Price Transacted (RM)
Acquired 26/06/2014
500,000


Circumstances by reason of which change has occurred Acquired
Nature of interest Direct
Direct (units) 422,735,291
Direct (%) 6.22
Indirect/deemed interest (units)
Indirect/deemed interest (%)
Total no of securities after change 422,735,291
Date of notice 27/06/2014

Remarks :
Form 29B was received on 1 July 2014

Announcement Info
Company Name YTL POWER INTERNATIONAL BHD
Stock Name YTLPOWR
Date Announced 1 Jul 2014
Category Changes in Substantial Shareholder's Interest Pursuant to Form 29B of the Companies Act. 1965
Reference No YP-140701-16B54

Calvintaneng, does the maths add up ? EPF only buy 500,000 shares but ASB allegedly sells 15,000,000 shares .... plus /minus a few days for notification you go and add and subtract up the big picture puzzle... it does not seem to tally between these two EPF and ASB. By the way, I have personally ceased trying to make head or tail of what our EPF is doing ! EPF disposed a huge chunk (around 230m shares) in the recent run up from Mar 13 to Nov 13; during this period SBB was in full force mopping up. I am not sure whether the same can be seen down the road; I hope so too ! In short, I don't think it is a good idea to blindly follow EPF (buy or sell). Caveat emptor !

I think the effect of ASB cessation as a SSH will be depressing for YTLP share price ..... they have another 337 m shares presumably to continue to sell (without further need to inform Bursa). Can't be they still want to keep these 337m shares as a non substantial shareholder right ? I am afraid my target of 140 (unadjusted price, if adjusted for entitlements etc is 133 target) may be coming sooner rather than later with/without any more gunfire from all those sore losers in the tendering/direct warding of power tracks !

Oh I see ! thanks !

Pak, if you check the total volume done on 27 Jun 2014 it is only 3,103,000 shares ! How can it be that ASK sold 15m on that day ??? I also checked that there was no married deal done too ! It makes me wonder how and who in Bursa will verify these kinds of submissions ..... what do you think ?

Sushi, you want cheap or you want good ? If cheap buy YTLP at 1.50, good buy YTL at 1.55 ........ but, if you want "cheap and good and big boobs and near the street side" then wait till one or both hit 1.40. But, no guarantee will sink that low unless Najib or other BN top guns open fire with their mouth at YTL or YTLP these 2 unfortunate victims !

Opposition MP praise YTLP and Francis Yeoh to the sky also no use lah ! Like that macham add kerosene to the fire ! What we want to see is Najib and the ruling BN's MPs come out and say something similar or even the same thing : “We must applaud YTL Power for believing in the need for free and fair competition.... etc etc " like that then got use ! Meanwhile, YTLP will be weak; what else can we expect when they have offended the powers that may be ? Let things cool down by itself for a while is the best !

TNB union so powerfool huh ? like that tomorrow will see 1.50 and by end of the week ..... how low can it sink to ???

I tend to agree with peter5151 that somehow they will again suka suka award it back to 1MDB. Generally speaking, one must also believe that when you play dirty and get something which you do not deserve in the first place, it won't last long i.e in short, I believe this 1MDB will most likely to cock up big time in the near future together with TNB. Someone else will have to come in and clean up the "shit", who knows ? Of course, open tender and best and most competetive bidding process is the fairest and people are not stupid : YTLP and partners submitted the best and most competetive bid in an open tender exercise the last time it was called for 3B; yet it was given to 1MDB ! This "power" game is just another disaster waiting to happen ...........

seems like a very weak position for YTLP

wait a while longer..... better to just wait for 140 same as last year's low on 25 march'13

wait a little while longer, 1.40 then sapu is much better !

Bravo ! well done Mr Koon Yew Yin, I salute you !

It is neither correct nor fair to the author KYY to say that this article is misleading; rather it is only the title that is a bit misleading.

I am with you both @lohman and @kcchongnz ! Looking at the 2 charts posted by KYY, if you buy now (today's price of 19.96 for BKAWAN and 23.96 for KLK) you are buying at or very near their all time highs (adjusted data) of 20.24 for BKAWAN and 26.76 for KLK ..... always risky to buy at or near the highs unless you are a short term momentum type of trader ! I think this title "No Risk Investment Strategy - Koon Yew Yin" can be a bit misleading - I was drawn to read it !

sini malaysia, ini macham pun boleh ! betul betul tidak crazy ....

yes, agree with you Peter5151 for now YTLP got no chance even if their bid is the most competetive ....... it's only and after 1MDB cock-it-up big time, then "they" will give it back to YTLP.

whether it is going up or down, this article sums it up best :

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.sg/

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.sg/

Macau casinos having a hard time because of XJP crackdown - you think how this will impact Genting ? Never mind S'pore or Malaysia, Chinese gamblers cannot go about their business as normal !

if you are Chinese, and you know very well MH370 - would you still want to come to Malaysia, to gamble ? Answer is obvious ......... until there is a clear resolution and the Chinese know what really happened I don't think the sentiment will improve, it can only worsen with the passage of time :(

wah so pessimistic huh ? how far below RM9 you reckon it's going to be below RM9 ?

buffet, why do you say that ?

why huh ?

@pi, why not ? the major part of the so called gains from the low of 3.52 in Sep11 to high of 7.97 in nov 13 were more or less due to the rigmarole of a "special dividend"eading to 31 Dec2013. All these came to nought ! Now, the rout should continue .........

congrats to ktsk88, see you are rare few can make money from Genting trio ! I not sure whether Genting 10.00 can tahan or not ?

I don't think can tahan much longer and am expecting a severe fall in Genting judging by the price action of its own little brother Genting S'pore as well as other casino stocks such as over at Las Vegas Sands........even good old solid Genting Malaysia also falling, falling ....

lol why say 5.50 only, might as well say will go back to 3.83 low !

@terrorbunny 21:26 : answer is NO, you cannot sell your OR anymore as trading of OR already ended.

@dragonfruits, if you do not do your acceptance and payment by 13 Jan 2014 at 5.00p.m. , then your Rights will be deemed to have been declined by you and will be cancelled. Such cancelled rights shares not taken up by you will then be alloted to applicants who have applied for excess rights beyond their own entitlements. Yes, it is stupid to be a Renouncee especially if you are one of those who bought the OR because of the "apparent" 6 sens instant gain vis a vis the then traded MBSB last done price.
@hwtham , just saw in company's announcement dated 3 Jan 2014 that their own MBSB's Principal Officers Dato Ahmad Zani Othman and Mr Tang Yow Sai both sold off their Rights shares 172,900 and 20,000 respectively on the last day of trading ! tsk tsk tsk , really ka na sai ! even their own principal officers who should know better than us all also don't want to exercise their rights, no wonder the huge sell down ! Come Monday onwards, who knows ??? But, for those who bought the ORs (such as @member41) even if you see the MBSB price rebound up towards the sky also no use, as you are "locked up" during the transistionary period i.e. you can only salivate and hope that the rebounded price stays around there and not collapse on you towards the RM 1.85 marker you mentioned when your MBSB shares are finally credited to your account only after 13 Jan 2014.

@member41, you need to have standby another RM1.65 per share to subscribe for the amount of rights you've bought. good luck !

@member41, repeat broadcast : MBSB-OR today is last day to buy (or to sell) by 5.00 p.m.

@prudentinvestor, thank you for sharing with us your knowledge of land prices especially those recent done deals you factually quoted. These are useful "comparative markers" for us to assess the current and future "true value" of Keck Seng's plantation and other land value. You are very up to date, my admiration ! However, on a light-hearted note may I add that if your prayer is answered and Keck Seng's share price really touch RM 4.00, it would be quite frightening and a "bad, bad opportunity" to buy as everyone else (including me) busy 'running road" already - Bursa and entire Worldwide stock market all would be "dead" by then !