loaded 20% of my portfolio for C-49. Try monitor less and check the price next month.. haha..

opps, q back at 3.00... durian lai liao..

fyi, 冷眼只有小学毕业.

yeah, I guess it correctly again. supermx2 is show up again.. hahahaha..

Remove the q at 3.00 for mother share and use it to buy C-49 at price 0.335. With me luck.. haha...

Why supermx2 did pop out n claim that AA is sell down now geh? Lol

weng, you can check the movement of EPF in AA at bursa announcement for AA. There are 7 funds there, u can check before and after then you will know who is acquired/disposed.

If you monitor closely on EPF movement, the one who accumulated for EPF is the 2 biggest fund which is CIMB PRI and EPF house fund. The one who disposed last week is smaller fund which is templeton and aminvest.

Accumulation from CIMB is at least consistent with their analyst recommendation. Lol..

My guess why AA distribute higher dividend are:
1. TF need more cash to pay off loan for PP
2. Try to keep higher ROE for FY2017. It's very important year for AirAsia in 2017 since it will listed in HKSE. TF will try his best to present AA better in term of Balance Sheet and Financial metric. Gearing is significantly low now. Thus, TF will focus more on ROE.

My guessing can be wrong. But the fact is we will receive 12 cents as annual dividend!!!! hahaha...
Now I will expect to receive 80 cents special dividend from AAC.

Too early to discuss about next year annual dividend but i will expect 9 cents dividend for next year. Hahahah..

valuegrowth, I check the presentation slide in credit suisse, dividend policy is 20% of net operation profit. Thus, should be higher than expected if base on 20% net operation profit.

Just in case, I will q at 3.00 and hope durian will jatuh tomorrow and kutip some.

tjunkie, confirm not base on EPS. either base on operation profit or net operation profit. Too many non-cash item in EPS such as forex gain/loss. Thus, operation profit /net operation profit is the best indicator for AA dividend policy.

valuegrowth, I tot is refer to net operating earning (1.67 B) instead of gross operating earning (2.05 B) ? Anyway, happy to see it as 12 cents.. haha..

Base on AA dividend policy, they only need to distribute 10 cents base on net operating profit from FY2016. But now they distribute 12 cents, is it obvious that TF need more cash to settle his personal loan? Lol.. So I will expect huge cash from AAC will distribute as dividend. Probably 88 cent? lol..

12c dividend is more than what I expected. I expect 10 cent only. lol.. Seem like TF need dividend that we do. lol

I cant find any update news about aac..

Bought some at 3.07 yesterday. Now q at 3.14 to earn some meal allowance for next week. At the same time, q at 2.99 to get some discount "ticket" from TF.

cut loss at 1.52..

supermx2, please do some statistic calculation on your guessing in AA forum before you start analysis on AA. My wild guess on your guessing will be 10% correct, 40% wrong and 50% not related at all. I still remember you delete your msg after you find out your guessing is wrong just in 10 minutes!! Your strategy really not suit for AA. You may do better in others counter.

I wish to see calvintaneng warn us again about AA later then you will see AA fly again and again..

Just like "calvintaneng" few month ago, even ancillary income also dont know but already try to teach person buy/sell on airline stock. Sipek funny...

dnn78, I dont think that legit investor will worried la.. I just personally dont like "supermx2". If he claim that AirAsia is cheating counter, why still staying here? He claim that he can earn money in others counter like CAB, VS, why still staying here? Cant earn money in AirAsia then try to blame the counter but not urself? sound very funny to me..

Air ticket is price base on current assumption. But your air ticket can be 6 months or probably 1 year later. Thus, hedging strategy is apply to smooth your earning but not to "earn" the spread from different btw current oil price vs future oil price. It is just a strategy to minimize the gap btw expected vs actual. Hedging more than 2 years is "gambling" to me. TF say that he will only do short term hedging which I super agreed with that.

supermx2, do u know that what is the price of AA price when crude oil price is 90-100 in year 2012? It was 3.80 with lower EPS, lower NTA. You may argue that RM is stronger that time. But you are paying loan with RM3.3 vs 1 USD that time but selling RM4.4 vs 1 USD through AAC. This definitely can offsetting the currency impact.

Hedging oil price after 2018 is gambling but not doing business. I wont invest Airasia if TF start to hedge 2020 oil price. It's a suicide mission to me.
Do you know why cathay still making losses now even crude oil as low as 50? Please dont simply find some information to "match" what you want to tell.

Got it at 3.07. But cannot sell it 3.14 today. Lol..

Hopefully AA can achieve ancillary income RM60 per person in FY2017 after upgrading its inflight broadband service. It's a good move to improve income for AA.

No la, remain q at 3.07. Cant get also never mind. Ideally is get at 3.07 and sell at 3.14 today or tomorrow. Lol.. It is very difficult to do nothing. So just try trade a bit.

too bad, I cant get any at 3.07 just now..

I'm am a fool who q at 3.07 now.

Supermx2, let me remind you again. Please refer to your comment before on AA and that time AA price is about 2.40. If you cant earn money from AA, please earn from CAB, VS, etc that you mentioned and leave AA forum.


Stock: [AIRASIA]: AIRASIA BHD
Posted by supermx > Jan 23, 2017 12:45 PM | Report Abuse

I feel we all are cheated by TF. Now he involved in corruption case as reported, how many times he want to cause people to lose money in Airasia. I would never touch this share anymore. Dissapointed with this lousy company.

I q at RM3.59 to block you.. Lol..

I wanna BWC/Investo explain more so that we got more story/joke to share in future.. Lol..

Hahahaha... dont know then say dont know la..

know a little knowledge is very dangerous. But if you know nothing is nothing can be dangerous already. 100% sure lose in market is not consider a risk, it is just a fact.

BuyWithConviction , so weaker ringgit at 4.43 is good or not good to AA? What is the financial impact to AA?

STC1136, it will not be 30% anymore, it will more than 60%-70% planes park at AAC in Q1 2017. In future, MAA will need to lease from AAC and pay for leasing fees instead of paying loan. That's all..

supermx2, hope you aware that in-the-money position for airasia-HC is 2.60 and below and the breakeven point is 2.30 with current price. Only a super big wave can earn money from this but not the scenario that you mentioned (long term 3.3 and short term 3.0).

I dont like PBB analysis although they set higher Target Price now. Adjust from 2.5 to 3.19 but without significant justification? I still prefer refer to CIMB one which is more realistic and make more sense.

Hi Pinky, as at Q4 2016, AAC is book as 87 mil USD only.

Valuation for airline / leasing normally is 1.4 of book value.
87 x 4.4 currency x 1.4 = RM 536 mil in current booking.
Estimation from IB for future booking is at least 300M

Please note that 45 fleets will transfer from MAA to AAC soon, so book value will change as well in Q1 2017. And I believe TF wan to push the price 1.8-1.9 book value.

Please refer to my comment last week as below. I guess it correctly. Hahahaha....

Stock: [AIRASIA]: AIRASIA BHD
Mar 31, 2017 08:50 PM | Report Abuse

I do not know next Monday will close with green or not. But I can 100% guarantee when the price near 3.09-3.10, someone will show up and claim that "go back to square", "sell down", "operator try to trap people".. hahahahaha....

In short, Q1 will be another good quarter. Haha..

Weng, it's not potentially only, some of them are confirm.
1. 100% have higher brand license fees
2. 100% lower financial costs Q4 2016 Debt = 8.8B vs Q4 2015 debt is 10.2B. If include PP from TF 1B then then net debt is only 7.8B
3. Unlock huge unrealized loss by transfer aircraft from MAA to AAC. This will change the aircraft asset booking from Ringgit in MAA account to USD in AAC account. Thus, i will expect at least 400M forex gain in Q1 2017. I assumed all 45 fleets is success to pump in to AAC from MAA in Q1. Although this is cash, but the balance sheet will look better. As a value investor, we should ignored this noise start before it appear as unrealized loss. But I believe we will happy to see higher PAT instead of lower PAT. Lol..

Expected Net Operation Earning = 450M
Foreign exchange gain = 400M
Share of results of associates= 0 (hard to estimate, assume 0)
Current Tax & Deferred Tax = 0 (Dont know how to estimate, even TF also admitted that he dont know about deferred tax, purely accounting item)
Expected PAT=850M


Note:
Start from Q1 2017, will take into consideration of PP share from TF. Thus EPS will be diluted.

https://www.iata.org/publications/Documents/Airline-Disclosure-Guide-aircraft-acquisition.pdf

Thanks valuegrowth. It is longer than what I expected. So I believe that it is not straight-line schedule for depreciation.

If not mistaken, AA have longer depreciation policy, probably 10-12year. Others airline may have shorter depreciation policy, e.g. 7-8 years like SIA. Thus, lesser depreciation mainly due to different accounting basis. So you will see others airline earn more by disposing their aircraft but lower in operational earning.

Another thing is as per supersaiyan3 mentioned, they get some discount by huge order as well. Thus indirectly ur depreciation amount is lesser as well.

Please correct me if im wrong.

It's a good move to invest in Vietnam but it is not a easy task. VietJet and Vietnam Airline are dominating the market there so far. Let see how TF get some market share from them.

valuegrowth, hahaha.. about to the say the same thing.. ap is always auto posting the same quote for a period.

I do not know next Monday will close with green or not. But I can 100% guarantee when the price near 3.09-3.10, someone will show up and claim that "go back to square", "sell down", "operator try to trap people".. hahahahaha....

No wonder deutche bank keep criticize Airasia. Because Deutche invest in VietJet and AA is going to enter vietnam market. Lol... typical "kia su" attitude.

valuegrowth, yalo.. should be free interest from UOB. hahahaha...
TF wont be so stupid use own money to pay for interest one la + I don't think that TF got too much cash on hand. If yes, he will try private AA when AA price at RM0.80 that time. No need until 1.80 only do PP.