weng. Macquerie valuation very funny one. I dont know where the 150 fleets come from to value AAC at price $1.8bn. I strongly believe that they just wanna match back what they say at valuation 1.8B.

Actual aircraft portfolio for AAC in Q1 2017 = 74 fleets --> expected 900M for 100% stake
So gross up from 74 to 150 fleets then the valuation is around 1.8B??? Current MAA + AAC portfolio is about 106 fleets only (77+29). Just simply put some number to fool readers?? If they wanna include future booking then do it properly. Not to say that their 1.8B is still within their estimation with 150 fleets.

Just curious that how they do valuation on AAC base on 150 fleets previously. MAA + AAC portfolio also not reach 150 fleets until now. I suspect that they just want to match back their valuation on 1.8B (previous valuation) to 900M (current valuation) and gross up back from 74 fleets? Lol..

3.17 is the highest price in year 2017. Today plan is dumb dumb hold. Doing nothing is the most difficult thing to do in stock market.
But current price is still far from my target price which is around 3.60. lol.. Hopefully it will reach 3.60 before Aug since i bought a lot of C-49 with average price 0.327.

yes. I do the same thing for C-34. The time lack make me cant invest for AA at 2.80 anymore. Lol..

U will receive cheque from issuer after 7 working days of maturity dates

Is ok. I like to play trial game in stock when I have no money to invest that time. Hahaha..

Sorry, typo. Not investo but supermx2.. My fault.

Posted by supermx2 > Apr 3, 2017 02:54 PM | Report Abuse

Bought in some Airasia-HC, hope i m right this time, be a contrarion when people are greedy. I see distribution this round, there could be some profit taking and fierce sell off follows. but only for short term hold, 2 weeks.

Sell of AAC will propel the price further.Long term will be 3.3, but short term could go back to 3.

Today is gam gam two weeks.

Posted by Investo > Apr 3, 2017 02:54 PM | Report Abuse

Bought in some Airasia-HC, hope i m right this time, be a contrarion when people are greedy. I see distribution this round, there could be some profit taking and fierce sell off follows. but only for short term hold, 2 weeks.

Sell of AAC will propel the price further.Long term will be 3.3, but short term could go back to 3.

Except for C-38, C-49 is the only call warrant with negative premium now. I hold some C-49 myself, not to promote it but just for sharing purpose. For those who are interested in call warrant for AA, you may consider about it.

This supermx2 is just a joker. I recall that he bought Airasia HC at price 0.10 before but after that no transaction at all. Im not too sure how he sell it la. Not through the market? Hahahahaha..

My big picture is to stop spammer by report abuse. Lol.. Not sell or buy any AA related share today, just keep report abuse only. Lol..

Mother move faster than my C-49. haha... Wrong strategy.

Unstoppable. Wish AA close at 3.16 and above today.

TF mentioned that AA will received money shortly after they make the announcement. Probably 1 month after make the announcement. But not sure when can we receive it as special dividend if any. But special dividend is secondary to me. Most important is still the price for 100% stake of AAC. I expect minimum with 900M USD and Maximum with 1.2B USD now.

http://www.kwongwah.com.my/?p=304743

No time to filter the msg. What I can do is click spammer name, then go to "comments" and report all msg as abuse. Lol...

I suddenly think that is it possible that the biggest pump and dump activity is done by Most Powerful Man in the World?

It's a beautiful morning and good Friday. This forum without someone sound very comfortable. Let's us share more useful information about AA and learn something new everyday.

Eyewitness, it may look not so hot for you. But to me, 12 cent is superb already. 12 cent x 12 = 48 cent. Current price = 3.07. PE = 3.07 / 48 = 6.4

For your reference.
PE for Southwest Airlines=15
PE for Ryanair= 13
PE for EasyJet = 10
PE for IndiGo=22
PE for Singapore Airline = 17
PE for United Airline (which is very famous recently)=10
PE for Vietnam Airline = 15

So I believe that Airasia is still undervalued in my view. Minimum should value AA at PE 8 which is around 3.60-3.80. Once Airasia listed in HKSE, it is not surprise to see PE of AA will break 10. This is the reason why I almost sailang on Airasia.

Even I include so huge foreign gain already, but my estimation in term of EPS (0.238) is still look "worsen" than Q1 2016 (0.315). Lol.. will some reporter / analysis say that it looks "bad" vs 1st Q 2016 after dilution impact? Lol... let's see what they say in next Q.

valuegrowth, it's ok. You also know that this number not really important. It wont effect you on any decision making in AA investment. Lol.. I just complete it for better presentation only.

Hi Purple98, it's not 500k, it's 500 mil
Just a wild guess from me for this number. AA will swift 45 fleets (including 7 with Sales and Leaseback Agreement) from MAA to ACC. It mean that the asset with existing book value in ringgit will book as USD in AAC balance sheet. So im trying to estimate this figure.

Method 1:
Last Q (Q4 2016) suppose to have currency losses about 300M due to weaken in ringgit from 4.1 to 4.5 but you still saw a positive foreign exchange gain 54m. Where is this 350M come from? This is because they book the AAC existing 29 fleets into current USD exchange rate. 354/29= 12M forex gain per fleet. Q1 might swift 45 fleets=564Mil


Method 2:
1 fleet worth about 15M-20M USD, with existing booking 3.5 Ringgit : 1 USD (wild guess). 1 fleet = 15M x 3.5 = 52.5M. Now you booking with current exchange rate which is 4.4 Ringgit : 1 USD, 1 fleet = 15M x 4.4 =66M. You asset become more valuable and there is a gain 66M-52.5M= 13.5M. Total gain for 45 fleets = 13.5M x 45 = 607.5M.

Method 1 or Method 2 also show that it's about 500-600M. So I just simply guess 500M.

AAC please fast fast close case and receive money faster la. Ringgit start strengthening liao. Receive USD, convert to Ringgit may drag to June/July liao.

Another item is deferred tax which I always don't know how to estimate and guess from q1 2016. Purely accounting item and non cash item as well. You may ignored it.

SharkTank, very envy you leh.. I hope that I can retire early also just like you. Hope that my AA can contribute a bit on this.

45 fleet will swift from MAA to AAC. This will unlock huge unrealised loss in past. For example. A fleet worth 15M USD book as 15M X 3.5 RM = RM 52.5M last time. Now you can book as 15M x 4.4 RM = RM66.0 M. Then 1 fleet gain is about RM13.5M. 13.5x 45 fleet = 607.5M. I discount it to 500M.. Actually this item is not really important. It is just purely accounting and non-cash item. Just TF wanna unlock the value only by write off the unrealised loss.

My wild estimation for Q1 2017
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AirAsia_Q32016_estimation/

For people who would like to know how TF calculate his dividend yield.

Year 2016
Average price = 2.3361
Dividend = 0.12
Dividend Yield = 5.1% (from TF twitter, lol)

Year 2015
Average price = 1.8104
Dividend = 0.04
Dividend Yield = 2.2% (consistent with the source as below in page 9)

Year 2014
Average price = 2.4326
Dividend = 0.03
Dividend Yield = 1.2% (consistent with the source as below in page 9)

Year 2013
Average price = 2.8315
Dividend = 0.04
Dividend Yield = 1.4% (consistent with the source as below in page 9)


https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/microsite/docs/aic/presentations/2017/airasia.pdf

https://www.credit-suisse.com/my/en/news-and-expertise/entrepreneurs/articles/news-and-expertise/2017/04/en/tony-fernandes-interview.html

http://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com/2017/03/16/cathay-pacific-fuel-hedging/
Bad call for hedging strategy. TF already learn the mistake in year 2014-2015 and now AA only do shorter term hedging (1 years+-).

My valuation of PE is not 5x but something not far. Will BWC method is similar as mine? Lol..

Skng74, I'm one of the group member and waiting bwc / Investo to show up there. Lol.

BWC/ Investo, can you join the FB group and disclose who you are? I'm just curious what you look like.. Hahaha.... Don't judge a book by its cover. But if the book without content, what to do leh? Lol..

Suddenly feel that TF do much better than United Airline CEO. At least TF do much better job in PR. Lol.. So I strongly believe that the key man risk is the major risk to AA but not others such as currency, volatility of fuel price, wars, etc..

Now I guess I know how TF calculate his dividend yield for AA. 12 cent / share price @ 30 Dec 2016 > 5%. Maybe TF wanna show that he din check share price every day which I doubt that.. hahahaha..

Reputational risk
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/11/asia/united-passenger-dragged-off-china-reaction/
Actually nothing related to AA

Nothing new today. Still no update from AAC. Dumb Dumb hold.

Today supermx2 did not show up. Hopefully he wont come here and kacau AA forum again. lol..

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/airasia-official-airline-partner-sea-games-2017

My c-49 growth slower than mother share.. wrong strategy last week.. should buy mother instead off warrant.. lol..

kaki gong kaki song. lol..

Super low volume today.

Anyone here know how to calculate 5% yield for dividend? Is it div / nta?

Investo 3 Nonono
By the way, Investo. I think we are fine if u ask ur friends / create fake ID to support u back. Hahaha

supermx2 talk like syria war just started this week. lol.. cruger12345, he wont leave the market or at least wont leave AA forum. He just cannot tahan see person earn the money but he cant in the same counter. So he wish that everyone get "burn" from the same counter so that he wont feel lonely.

JN88, it's too bias if you say that AirAsia able to monopoly the business even in south east asia. Aviation sector is too big to become the only player in market. But from what I see, the strategy of AirAsia is very very well progress. For example, enter into India market is very very good move. India aims to become the third-largest aviation market by 2020 and the largest by 2030. It is super hard to predict/forecast that far until 2030, but 2020 goal seem achievable and airasia have a very good start in India now. In addition, listed in HKSE this year will make airasia easier to raise fund when they wanna do something big in future.
Last year, Warren Buffet already decide the "big" direction for us already - invest into aviation sector. What we need to do is pick "one" of them and invest to it. So my choice is "airasia".

Yes, it will affected margin. But airline carrier is not something "luxury" now. It's become a "need" in our life especially growing in medium class people. Even oil price reach 100USD per barrel, demand is there and Airasia has the lowest Cost / ASK in market. Your operating cost is lower than others competitors. What to worry leh? Market may not be 100% rational, but other competitors are not stupid, naturally will transfer the cost to consumer. let say ticket is 100 and the jet fuel price is 25 (currently is about 25-30% of revenue), even you increase double the cost of jet fuel to 50. They just change the ticket price to 125, demand wont be cut even you increase 25% at that time. Revenue after net of jet fuel is still remain the same which is 75. Although margin may look lesser to you but the earning power is still the same.

Worry about demand and supply is more realistic instead of just talking about oil price. Will the demand decrease in coming 5 years? I dont think so, aviation sector is expect to growth very very fast in coming 5 years. For example, medium class of china people is expected double of now after 5 years.

I q at 3.00 and din get any for mother share. Lol..

supermx2, base on your past experience with AA, I 100% can earn money if all the action is against what you say.. Hahaha...