When you think you are a better investor than Warren Buffett, Howard Marks, Stanley Drunkenmiller, Mohamed El-Erian, to name a few.

at least RM10

Very obvious SAM is deeply undervalued vis-a-vis its peers.

Valuation is unjustified given its track record. A simple back of the envelope calculation shows it deserves a blended PE of 25x at least.

commendable performance

the management has proven again and again

this gem is worth a keep

Latest NTA 9.10

Pre-covid from beginning of the year, P/BV is at least 0.6x (=RM5.46)

end 2019 P/BV was 0.7x (=RM6.37)

over the last 5 years, the max P/BV was 2.05x in January 2019

median was 0.9x

3iii

don't get me wrong, i am not prohibited by high PE from investing in any wonderful companies

what i'm trying to say is given the exceptional profit growth in the next 1-2 years, with mean reversion in mind, don't you think the forward PE as implied by current price is sustainable vis a vis its historical PE valuation.

i paid PE 38x to own Disney shares as i believe the future runway is still very long, i'm not too sure about TopGlove

it implies forward PE of 30x.

such valuation sustainable?

Posted by Integrity. Intelligent. Industrious. 3iii (iiinvestsmart)$€£¥ > Jun 16, 2020 3:30 PM | Report Abuse

Topglove


At RM 15.56 per share, its market cap is RM 41.7 billion.

I project Topgloves' total earnings for this and next 3 quarters to be RM 1.4 billion.

SAM

Growth stock albeit temporary headwinds, valuation are undemanding

HLIND

Strong FCF generation

Cash cow

LCTitan net current asset per share is 2.18

benjamin graham would have been an eager buyer, even more so when it drop below its net cash per share

have a look at the annual report. there is no mention on the competition risks from new airport. it remains as business as usual as far as communication from the management

hope it breaks first target 4.50

once the economy is fully opened up, gaming would rebound the fastest. you can't bet against human nature, ingrained over hundred of years of evolution, when gambling became an obsession since the ancient kingdom

CIMB Target Price - RM5.06

The resilient demand for PVC food wraps should assist Thong Guan to stay on a growth
path. With the ringgit and oil prices expected to remain depressed, we upgrade Thong
Guan to Add. Our higher TP of RM5.06 is still based on 13x FY21F P/E, our target
multiple for the packaging sector, based on its 10-year historical valuation. Upside risks
for the stock include further declines in ringgit and raw material prices. Downside risks
are a rebound in oil prices and the US dollar enervating.

sure, it's boring here. no excitement at all....quiet enough for the CEO to accumulate shares

Kenanga has revised its target price to RM4

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/2020-05-22-story-h1507779076-Thong_Guan_Industries_Bhd_Situational_Black_Horse.jsp

First quarter seems promising.


Posted by Fabien "The Efficient Capital Allocater" > Nov 20, 2019 3:12 PM | Report Abuse X

Next year EPS should normalise, back to growth trajectory.

erm, can write off quarter 2

at least PE 15x

slow and steady

i bought 5.00 exactly a month ago. now 5.70, >13% return in a month

who says can't make money in Orient

This AmInvestment analyst is a joke. From 1.05 less than a month ago, a company's valuation can changed so drastically to 2.20.

We upgrade our call on Serba Dinamik Holdings (Serba) to BUY from SELL with a higher fair value of RM2.20/share (from an earlier RM1.05/share), based on a 30% discount to our diluted sum-of-parts (SOP) valuation of RM3.15/share vs. a previous P/BV target of 1.3x.

IB analysts just cari makan...they also follows the herd...the fear of missing out...so they won't make to feel an outlier when proven wrong. the market can remain irrational but for how long, no one knows for certain. so better be safe, and ride with the crowd....

while everyone...the retailers, mostly, are chasing the hot theme, new bloggers emerged and the IB analysts came up with superficial projections, Philip has sold his entire holdings in his beloved Top Glove and i believe he has done right...

9th consecutive quarter with net profit up y-o-y

time to look at laggards like cash rich Kumpulan Fima

time to look at laggards like cash rich Kumpulan Fima

market present opportunities for u to take advantage with...

love selldown more than up

anyway, mix ur strategy a bit..deploy your capital wisely

like me, i balance 50%-50% between growth & value

for growth, i bought Serba at 1.50 & Kawan at 0.975

for value, i bought Poh Huat at 0.87 & Orient at 5.00

Both revenue & net profit recorded growth y-o-y

First interim dividend of 2sen declared

when the retailers are busy chasing the hot themes...irregardless of fundamentals

while we value investors, quietly accumulating bargain stocks

life has been good...

whether it's comfort or supermax, you should find out at current price, how much growth has been embedded in. do you realise how irrational is it??

marching onwards towards PE 15x

i remember back in March, ppl were selling as low as RM3.10. it had since rebounded and never look back

both factors will drive its prospect

demand v. supply dynamics
feedstock costs which correlates with crude oil price

Net profit is projected to grow at 10-15% v. GDP -0.2-0.5%

And this company is valued at 10x PE on historical earnings, not even half of Dialog's valuation.

"Global integrated engineering solutions provider Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd is targeting to grow 10-15 per cent in 2020 for both the top and bottom lines compared with previous years growth of 15-20 per cent.

This was due to disruption in progress during the Movement Control Order (MCO) following the COVID-19 pandemic which has caused global economic volatility.

Group managing director and group chief executive officer Datuk Mohd Abdul Karim Abdullah said however, the company is optimistic and confident of achieving the target as it has already executed plans to increase its non-oil and gas (O&G) revenue to about 70 per cent over the next three years, while reducing revenue dependency on the O&G sector to about 30 per cent.

Serba Dinamik's entire orderbook currently stood at RM17 billion, of which 45 per cent comes from O&G, while 55 per cent are non-O&G.


"We are encouraged that economic activities are now in full swing. We have been working hard to ensure that our operations in Malaysia and in other parts of world, which are all operational, are well position to handle their respective challenges.

"Under the operations and maintenance (O&M) business segment for example, even though oil price collapses, the production platforms are still running.

"As a result, our contracts is still active and honoured and are utilised because equipment needs to be maintained to ensure that they are in good condition to carry out the necessary production required," he said in his online interaction with the media on Thursday.

On the group's engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) segment, Mohd Abdul Karim said 55 per cent of its orderbook in the segment now comes from non-O&G-related activity, which includes its Chlor Alkaline Plant in Tanzania that uses salt to make brine for chlorine production.

Besides EPCC, other non-O&G revenue contributor is expected to derive from its its hydropower plant in Kota Marudu, Sabah, an innovation hub development in Saudi Arabia, as well other integrated information technology solution-related projects, mainly on the Industrial Revolution 4.0 frontier.

He said the acquisition of University Malaysia of Computer Science & Engineering (UNIMY) earlier this year would also be one of the revenue contributor, where it is positioning the institution as a premier higher learning institution and expanding it globally soon.

Serba Dinamik recently undertook a private placement exercise, securing RM456.7 million on April 24,2020, with the aim of pairing down its debts with some financial institutions and providing working capital for existing projects.

Mohd Abdul Karim said the the exercise was also to ensure that the group is able to maintain and manage its strategic manner, while making sure that its trajectory of sales and revenue is achievable for 2020.

Affin Hwang Investment Bank, CIMB Investment Bank and Credit Suisse were the appointed bankers for the share placement exercise."

BPPlastic just recorded a decent quarter despite lower revenue its gross profit margin has improved contributed to higher profit y-o-y

yes, pohuat valuation is at extreme low. at current price, it implies that the company is facing severe impairment to its earnings power

even pre-covid, its market valuation multiple has been very low compared to its peers. and this company has been doing ROE of 15% in the last few years

sometimes, you just need to look hard and think whether the market has been unduly irrational in pricing some companies

well, value is in the eyes of the beholder

to me, it's value play, pure and simple

in times like this, you want to put your heard earned money with proven companies, such as Orient that have survived few generations, few economic crisis

of course, things can change in the future. but no one knows the future with much certainty

this company has shown to be resilient

end of day, it boils down to balance sheet strength

even at this price, it's very much a bargain

you should have to look beyond a quarter or two

thanks for the article.

i myself too rate Oriental as a long term investment, up there with the likes such as Hong Leong Industries, the undervalued and underappreciated gems.

basically you are betting on the product price spread. it may not be long term but instead a mid term play

reminiscent of Hengyuan, anyone?

on the bright side, Q1 loss coincides with major tunraround activities

moving forward to Q2 and beyond, with the sharp drop in naphtha prices expected to see good profit2 margin due to product spread expansion

not looking to far ahead to assume the current spread to last for the whole year, its not exaggerating to forecast they will make 400mil net profit, about similar to last year

net cash per share is around 1.77. latest NTA 5.41
assuming EV/EBIDTA of 5 - 6x, fair value around RM2.5-3

why cannot make money from Orient?

the yield itself is at 7%

and when the valuation itself revert to its historical mean

you are easily looking at upside of 30%

there are many ways to diversify your capital.

on top down basis, you have your asset allocations.

from there, zooming in to equities portfolios, you have diversification by sectors. of course, you will have different stocks in different sectors. alternatively, you could choose to invest in conglomerates such as Oriental.

if you are looking for a defensive play, a company that is backed by huge cash pile (80% of market value), plantations lands that are carrying at cost value, hotels, hospitals, etc., you are looking at a real bargain here.

Let's look at some financial metrics.

NTA is at RM11 backed by huge tangible assets.

Dividend yield is at 7% (twice of risk free rate MGS 3.5%).

Cash yield at a whopping 10% (yes, it's a cash generating machine). Implying a Price over FCF of 10x.

EV/EBIT is only 3x, giving you earnings yield of whopping 35%.

Of course, its ROE is low at 5% due to huge cash pile. Looking at a more reliable measure of its capital structure, its ROIC is at 16.5%.

it's a low beta stock, not one for the high risk takers

Oriental, it's probably me. When net cash is >80% of market cap. There aren't much risks i'm not willing to bear at this price.

CCK is a well managed company with good growth prospect.

I like this company and have built a small position.

the way i see it, there is no single moment or best time to buy. the quest to buy at bottom is impossible and foolish.

what is certain is that this is a once a decade opportunity to buy stocks at depressed prices. price is what you pay, value is what you get. and with market selldown with such ferocity in March, a lot of bargains start to emerge.

if you did buy at depressed prices, you should hold on to it dearly. as Charlie Munger used to say "the big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting."

the way i see it, there is no single moment or best time to buy. the quest to buy at bottom is impossible and foolish.

what is certain is that this is a once a decade opportunity to buy stocks at depressed prices. price is what you pay, value is what you get. and with market selldown with such ferocity in March, a lot of bargains start to emerge.

if you did buy at depressed prices, you should hold on to it dearly. as Charlie Munger used to say "the big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting."

when comes to forecasting, i'm more inclined to believe in wisdom of the crowd instead of contrarian view

you are not far from the truth. but at this price, net cash is >80% of market cap.

Happy to know directors are buying. Have their skin in the game, like the rest of us.

Even at this times, Serba is getting 7.7bil project.

wow this company is valued at negative enterprise value