The worst is over indeed. The BOD is optimistic another excellent financial performance in FY2022.

RM51mil record quarterly profit

At the very least, UP deserves 20x PE

Rising tide lift all boats. even the "value trap" can move

Don't miss Oriental too

Rising tide lift all boats

CPO almost hitting 6k. Very good start to CNY

Good start to CNY!

HLIB TP 1.98

- Positive spillover from US and Canada “lumber war"
- Sustainable high plywood prices throughout 2022
- Robust RV outlook

Expecting bumper dividends

Tomorrow will announce Q4 results

good start to the chinese new year!

What's happening to Meta? Let's break it down.

- Growth slowing/stagnant (daily active people at 2.8bil hardly grew q-o-q + daily active users down by 1mil. hardly surprising since myself didn't log in FB for months)

- Advertising revenue Q1 guidance of just 27-29bil (lower than 30.15bil expectations)

- Metaverse losses about 10bil in 2021 (potentially a long gestation period of 10 years + uncertain if it ever works out)

- Impact of iOS privacy changes - a 10bil loss in revenue in 2022

P/S: if you seek exposure to metaverse, Roblox is a much better bet.

Anticipating the potential impact in the event of a Ukraine conflict:

1) Oil prices could shoot up to above US$100/bbl barrel even to as high as US$125
2) Key commodities will be hit. One of those is fertilizers. Globally, 23% of ammonia, 17% of potash, 14% of urea and 10% of phosphates are shipped from Russia
3) Flight to safety. Expect risk assets to be sold off and funds inflow to drive up bond prices

Plastic capitalism

wow Sime 2.18

Expecting juicy final dividends, at least 70sen to bring full year dividend to RM1.00 (7.2% yield at current price).

Roblox is interesting! Looking to add into my portfolio since the valuations have become more palatable.

I remember back in 2015-16 heydays, FLBHD able to ride the US RV boom (about 70% of their plywood is catered to the RV industry) coupled with the strong USD.

Perhaps, the stars have re-aligned again as the 1) US economy is recovering very strongly plus the cash reserves/savings from easy monetary policies hence bodes well for the demand for RV, 2) USD likely to strengthen further due to monetary policy tightening, 3) high Lumber prices (take a look at the 10 yr chart, its shooting towards the moon)

Petronas Chemicals Group Bhd (PetChem) plans to build a 60,000 tonnes per annum melamine plant in Gurun, Kedah, which will make it the sole melamine producer in Southeast Asia.

In a statement, PetChem said the plant is targeted to come onstream in 2024 but did not indicate how much it is investing in the plant.

It said the project is in line with its journey to expand into derivatives by adding value to the molecules from its existing products such as urea, methanol, polyolefins and more. It plans to use urea produced from its wholly-owned Petronas Chemicals Fertiliser Kedah (PCFK) unit as feedstock to produce the melamine.

“This is a significant milestone for PCG (PetChem) and further strengthens our strategy of diversifying our product portfolio.

Will break above 3 very soon

Very good results indeed

The market is not fair. That's pretty obvious.

For oil palm estates that are RSPO-compliance, no premium was accorded while ESG risks were heavily punished. I believe SimePLT valuation was heavily discounted due to the ban by the US CBP.

Two companies with low EV/ha are SimePLT and GenP.

So far the earnings result have been impressive

UTDPLT
SIMEPLT
SWKPLNT
IJMPLNT

Will revisit this stock again if it ever drop below 5

The increase in windfall tax levy threshold would benefit UP as most of its estates operations are based in Peninsular Malaysia.

PDB FPSO back again

Upstream reported that Yinson Holdings, still owning the 300,000mt VLCC Hawk (formerly Apollonia), is now poised again to supply Petrobras with a mid-sized floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel for the Parque das Baleias (PDB) field in the Campos basin.

Recall that Petrobras had ruled out Yinson, the only bidder, for re-tendering outside budget parameters in August this year with indications that the second tender was going to be terminated without success.

However, Petrobras has reversed its decision. It is now negotiating with Yinson, and the two parties are understood to be close to signing a letter of intent for the charter.

Upstream indicated that Yinson has agreed to a 3% discount to a flat day rate of US$624,110 from an earlier proposed US$645,750 in May this year, which was deemed too high by the Petrobras bidding committee.

Petrobras intends to charter an FPSO over 22.5 years with a storage capacity of 1mil barrels of crude, processing capacity of 100,000 barrels per day of oil and 5mil cubic metres per day of natural gas for the development. The unit is expected to feature a total of 21 development wells, including 14 oil producers and seven water injectors.

While tentatively scheduled to begin operation in 2024, Upstream indicated that the commencement could be extended by another year to address delays in the awarding of the contract.

The Term Sheet sets the salient terms of the joint venture between both parties with majority stake owned by Yinson to provide EV charging stations in Malaysia, building upon the ChargEV network with over 400 charging stations nationwide established by MGTC, which will be injected into the joint venture.

The joint venture will strategically leverage on Yinson’s experience in logistics, sustainability governance, technology development and synergies from its diverse business divisions, as well as ChargEV’s existing infrastructure and position as the EV charging station infrastructure provider.

This follows Yinson’s recent investments into e-mobility, autonomous driverless solutions and electric harbour crafts, presenting the next step in Yinson’s roadmap of building an integrated green mobility solution.

Yinson Holdings Bhd through its wholly-owned subsidiary Yinson Green Technologies (M) Sdn Bhd has signed a term sheet with GreenTech Malaysia Alliances Sdn Bhd, a wholly-owned subsidiary under the Malaysian Green Technology and Climate Change Corporation, to accelerate the development of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure in Malaysia. According to the term sheet, Yinson will hold a majority stake in the joint venture, which will provide EV charging stations in Malaysia.

According to Fortune Business Insights, the global organic cocoa market size was USD 532.45 million in 2020. The market is projected to grow from USD 570.95 million in 2021 to USD 942.57 million by 2028, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.42% during the forecast period.

what should you do when there is persistently high inflation

1) Energy related companies (O&G and petrochemicals)
2) Commodities producer (Plantation)
3) Cryptocurrencies (BTC & ETH)

remember 2010 to 2014, we saw O&G boom. Uzma was one of them

current situation is somewhat similar albeit driven mainly by supply disruption. but with more borders reopening, US in Nov...expect demand push as well

i believe $90-100 is within range towards end of the year

historically, Malaysian plantation average EV/ha is about $26,000 (based on actual transactions)

almost all plantation companies are being valued at depressed valuations notwithstanding the high CPO prices, thanks to ESG issues

There is greater chance of paying more than 12 sen. earnings and FCF on track to grow y-o-y

Bought some SHANG. Laggard for tourism recovery play

Malaysia's end-September palm oil stocks fell more sharply than expected as export demand surged while production stayed flat, data by the nation's palm oil board showed on Monday, supporting prices that are already trading near all-time highs.

Inventories at the world's second-largest producer dropped 6.99% from the previous month to 1.75 million tonnes, falling from a 14-month peak, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed.

Malaysia's end-September palm oil stocks fell more sharply than expected as export demand surged while production stayed flat, data by the nation's palm oil board showed on Monday, supporting prices that are already trading near all-time highs.

Inventories at the world's second-largest producer dropped 6.99% from the previous month to 1.75 million tonnes, falling from a 14-month peak, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed.

UP is top tier plantation

First half profit and FCF more than 200mil. Net cash about 7% of market cap

They are the most efficient planter with high extraction rate & oil yield

Their production cost is the lowest at less than 1,300/MT

Hence, they will enjoy huge profit margin at current elevated CPO

Luckily bought some on dip.

Put my money where my mouth is!

Fabien _the efficient capital allocator Smaller size tech is closing up the gap in valuation

Assuming a flattish q-o-q growth, annualised EPS is about 9 sen

At PER of 25x market value = 2.25

Its close peers such as Kobay is reasonably valued at forward PER of 40x

If you factor in profit growth and 10% discount to valuation multiple, WONG may fetch as much as RM4

24/09/2021 2:32 PM

Yinson has pivoted to become a energy infrastructure & GREEN TECHNOLOGY company

wait for them to unveil their green tech roadmap

6th largest FPSO company. FPSO market bound to do well as oil on upward trajectory

330MW of renewable assets already operational or under construction

major renewable energy play with 3 to 5GW pipeline

Finally moving!


Fabien _the efficient capital allocator GENP is undervalued at current valuation

on top of that, you will have recovery angle here too with re-opening of premium outlets

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/govt-open-genting-highlands-mel...
21/09/2021 8:06 PM

3 bil market cap

congrats guys!

Brent poised to rally towards $100

3 days ago Cathie Wood warned on high oil price. back then it was $77

guess she was wrong both on the trajectory and the demand peak

oil is not dead YET. inflation is not TRANSITORY

what should you do when there is persistently high inflation

1) Energy related companies (O&G and petrochemicals)
2) Commodities producer (Plantation)
3) Cryptocurrencies (BTC & ETH)

Brent poised to rally towards $100

3 days ago Cathie Wood warned on high oil price. back then it was $77

guess she was wrong both on the trajectory and the demand peak

oil is not dead YET. inflation is not TRANSITORY

what should you do when there is persistently high inflation

1) Energy related companies (O&G and petrochemicals)
2) Commodities producer (Plantation)
3) Cryptocurrencies (BTC & ETH)

Good closing 1.19

Maybank TP pricing in potential 2 FPSO wins

FPSO Enauta - $500mil
1 large scale FPSO - $1bil capex

Both contributing SOP RM4.76/share

RM6 breaching soon

Oil will reach $90/bbl

Smaller size tech is closing up the gap in valuation

Assuming a flattish q-o-q growth, annualised EPS is about 9 sen

At PER of 25x market value = 2.25

Its close peers such as Kobay is reasonably valued at forward PER of 40x

If you factor in profit growth and 10% discount to valuation multiple, WONG may fetch as much as RM4

WONG potentially could be a multi bagger. 200+ market cap. lots of room to catch up with its peers

the various investments by MNC, Lam Research and Simmtech will benefit them in the long run

Always remember market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent!

GENP is undervalued at current valuation

on top of that, you will have recovery angle here too with re-opening of premium outlets

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/govt-open-genting-highlands-melaka-and-pulau-tioman-new-destinations-under-tourism-bubble