O&G in play now

to those defensive investors looking to gain exposure to O&G can look at Favelle Favco

i used to own PCHEM many years ago when it was just listed. bought at 5.50 and sold it few years later. pchem has since grown stronger and stronger. to be honest, have not been following them closely maybe it's worthwhile to revisit again. the only thing is currently i have exposures to lctitan.

annualised revenue of 750mil against 1 billion market cap. amazing

calvin, i personally feel u are lil late in Dialog. Best times to invest in was 2-3 years ago.

growth stock is out of your circle of competence. perhaps stick to assets play suits you fine. Oriental, perhaps? Lol

over the last 3 years, FCF has exceeded 300mil. growing by 100mil p.a. it's really a cash cow this company.

i like being patient.

huh, did i see wrongly. 2 sen dividend?

Valuation wise, LCTitan is cheap. But bear in mind, they should trade at a discount to PChem due to PChem's feedstock cost advantage. LC feedstock is primarily naphta based vs. PChem gas based (which they secured from Petronas). Last quarter we can see the significant impact of mismatch between naphta feedstock cost against selling price. If you have a longer term view, the margin risk should gradually subside once the US ethane cracker starts commercial operation as LC would be able to diversify their feedstock structure from naptha based to cheaper US shale gas.

Favco is a top notch company. my average cost is 2.265.

that will re-rate the company multiples as a stable consumer stock. current valuation is not as such.

FCF is growing every year. cash pile is growing every year. minimal capex. perhaps management should consider deliver more cash to shareholders.

Phillip, i bet you have done your comparison between PCHEM and LCTITAN of which you choose the former. Mind to shed some light on your choice?

massive discount at current valuation, why not?

hi Phillip, what's ur take on Dialog? Any insights to share?

Analysts prediction quite consistent.

Maybank estimates at least RM200mil net profit.
Public Bank estimates RM200-RM260mil net profit.
Insider Asia estimation - US60-70mil net profit in first 5 years (RM240-280mil). Lower subsequently due to tax impact. Tax is exempted for first 5 years.

LPI is at fair valuation. 3x BV.

look at their FCF

do a simple DCF based on conservative growth estimates for its FCF

can't help to wonder on the timing..few articles written on AA recently

yep, agreed with value88

chinwel does not rank up in term of choices at this moment. compared to David's previuos recomemndation as an example, FLBHD is more worthwhile buy

how about TongHerr?

Posted by stockraider > Feb 15, 2019 10:08 AM | Report Abuse

Go go go Rm 0.90 loh....!!
But even Rm 0.90 want to sell meh ??
Raider short term Tp is Rm 1.30 loh....!!
Long term TP is rm 2.00 mah.......!!

So common sense mah... b4 reach Rm 1.30 to Rm 2.00 u need to pass Rm 0.90 mah...!!


RM2 is only its liquidation value.

Raider, aim higher!!

in modern times like this, where to find a company selling (significantly) below its net current asset value???

haha, i'm just a smallish shareholder here.

wait, once their medical centre starts contributing...

wow what happened?

RM2

Ok thanks much!

yep, this is FAKE icon. Only 35 posts.

How about Gladwell's Blink? What's your review, Ricky?

Between Blink and Risk Savvy which is better?

Icon8888 comment for item 5 : you don’t need to get all your stocks in your portfolio right. Sometime a few of them will turn bad. But if you have one or two multi-baggers, that will help to cover the losses and elevate the performance of the entire portfolio. In other words, don’t be afraid to take risk. It is ok to make some bad decisions. But try not to be too concentrated)


Partly true that u don't need 100% of ur stocks to perform. Not so true that one or two multi baggers can elevate your portoflio (only true if you have constructed your portofio based on equal weightage).

End of day, your portoflio outperformance depends on portfolio weighting, more so than stock selection.

what KC mentioned is 6% real return la...adjusted for inflation.

how much is real FD return??

how about credit quality? look at NPL ratios.

how to know if the Bank is being conservative? look at its loan loss coverage.

anyway, if u intend to invest in a Bank, pls note that those old days of high ROE is gone.

with Basel reform (stringent rules on liquidity, structural funding profile, maintaning adequate capital buffer) and new accounting standards (new loan provisioning methodology), it is inevitable that Bank's ROE and NIM to trend lower.

The starting point to look at the Bank's quality is their credit rating.

Strong credit rating will helps in favourable loan pricing, attracts more sticky deposits (e.g. during crisis times, u will notice a flight to safety, deposits flowing to Singapore banks for example), assess to cheap source of funding/ample liquidity. It's about credit spread, managing liquidity and capital position.

Relevant financial ratios to look at are ROE, NIM, LCR, NSFR, LDR,capital ratios.

Banks will only go bust due to 2 things - liquidity crunch or lack of capital.Banks are required to meet certain thresholds (1. LCR for 30 days liquidity position. if u cant survive the first 30 days u will go bust. 2. minimum capital ratios. on top of that regulators also require to build up capital buffer during normal times to survive in the event of economic crisis).

In terms of risk management, you can read their Basel Pillar 3 Disclosures in the Annual Report. 3 main Pillar 1 risks - credit, market and operational risks. There are other Pillar 2 risks that regulator look at to such as interest rate risk in banking book.

Are there any excessive risk taking? look at return on risk weighted assets (instead of ROE).

What;s the point of this article?

1) Do u know that Banks are not valued based on PE but rather P/BV? The main determinants to prescribe the P/BV multiple is the Bank's ROE.
2) You can;t look at operating CF basis to determine the Bank's healthy liquidity position. For liquidity, u should assess its LCR. Alternatively, u still can look at the traditional LDR ratio.

FLB fair value should be around 2.40.

FLB looking good. Q4 results should be better y-o-y.

dare u to show me evidence of liqudity drying up

sphg22

SOUR GRAPE

at the end, all things will revert to the mean.

uncle does not understand mean reversion...

mother of all valuation from uncle koon

take one quarter profit and annualised it, applied PE 10x. that;s how u should do it.

RM2 la...

Icon, why not have a look at Dialog?

let's see how the trade war unfolds...

rerouting of polyethylene exports from US to SEA is to blame for the depressed selling price

vegebird123 Fabien Extraordinaire

What is your holding price?
30/01/2019 15:28

My cost at 5

waiting below 4 to average down

yep, declared 17 sen dividend

4% yield at current price, ok la..

shpg22 Downgrade fair price to 3.50
30/01/2019 15:18

Ok, i key in at 3.50

sorry, i am greedy

i'll wait below RM4 to average down

pls drop below rm4, my CNY wish

that's why 3iii can only invest in that small universe stocks that meet the checklist. a very small sample.

no idea, just hold and watch

lol

what are the top 3 (a must read)?

i'll start from there.

quietly moving up

when you survived the black swan events then only ur skills are credible la..