unlike Mr.Phillip, my problem is i always sell "too early". I am in early but unable to fully exploit the full potential of quality companies..i took advantage of market multiple expansion and sold

case in point, i sold QL, Dialog & Padini at >100%. I could have ride on and gain mutlibagger...200%, 300% etc etc

wonder how many got blew up by HY. classic case of regression to the mean.

at least, some of the optimists quoted by Phillip are still around in I3..

true story

my cost price for SKP 1.68

"FYI. I have found the bursa market to be out of moat stocks. I'm just keep the moats I have. Make of that what you will."


I think moat is over rated. I don't get obsessed over it and neither should any of u too. Moat may protect you for an extended period of time, however, at some point be it competition, technological changes, socioeconomic changes will inevitably present challenges to the moat, more so at this digital age.

On other note, do read Homo Deus by Yuval Noah.

Just look at its growing FCF.

Amazing, no?

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 22, 2019 05:31 PM | Report Abuse

Temasek bought into GDex....Gdex becomes PE 100 stock for years and years....until recently when earnings disappoint.

Anybody with that Bufalo and Temasek as shareholder sure adds to its reputation la....until / unless they disappoint.



Will that happen to my SAM??? Hahahaha

After DKSH, Hengyuan, Petronm...waiting for more write-ups from Icon.

Icon8888 and PB forecast DPS jumps to 30 sen next year

slurp

Maybank forecast 15sen next year

Maybank predicted the powerplant to potentially contribute a minimum of USD55m of FCF p.a. over its 25-year concession. Expect good yield moving forward.

200mil is real profit. real cash flows.

not construction profit

abeerdeen dumped their shares as they ran out of patience. end of day fund managers have to correct their underperformance. they cant afford to be like us, holding 10 or 20 years. orient, in terms of share price, has been trading within a tight range for years.

wah very close to mine

my cost price is 6.16

i bought Orient many years ago, sometime around 2014 i think at 5++, sold within a year at 9++

3iii said orient is a value trap. i dont mind waiting 10 or 20 years for value to emerge. coz i know Orient is worth more than RM15.

good to hear that, Icon


hopefully i can be successful and achieve my goal la..in 10 years time.
im comfortable with RM4 - 5mil portfolio size then only i can quit full time job

fuiyo...banyak aggressive. haha

28 age where to find capital to invest ?

it depends on ur earning power as well as savings rate

i started savings since the first day i start working. i work hard to earn promotion. only after i left big 4 and started career in banking industry, i began to have time for investing,


first year of investing, i started small with just 50k capital.

wow Icon...u have more stocks than me

I thought i'm one of the rare breeds who cant stop buying stocks.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 16, 2019 06:24 PM | Report Abuse

Fabien, for me I look at it this way, of course I may be wrong, because I dont follow SAM engineering very closely or the airline industry either.


Thanks for the insight, Phillip.

I'll study more over this weekend.

What i have gathered from various reports, some pertinent points:

1) currently there is a backlog in orders worth RM3.1billion. most of the models are in early stage of lifecycles. Airbus and Boeing have combined order backlog of 13k+ aircrafts which will take min 9 years to fulfill all the orders and this does not include new orders over the 9 year period
2) significant contribution will come from their 2 FMS lines to produce nacelle beams
3) Starting from FY2020, will see contribution from additional facility for LEAP-X engine casing manufacturing

Anyway, SAM is in my core holdings. And i dont want the share price to go up because i am still accumulating.

Having said that, it's good to have opposing views. I'll take some time to study more.

I started investing when i was 28.

This year is my 10th year of investing. Hopefully within another decade i can reach my end goal la...

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 16, 2019 05:38 PM | Report Abuse

wah our portfolio very similar woh

Lctitan, hlind , oriental, sam


Lol great mind think alike...

those are my core holdings. i have exposure to 28 stocks.

Posted by 金刚 般若 > Jan 16, 2019 06:05 PM | Report Abuse

Fabien Extraordinaire, may i know you age ?

36.

Why particular interest in my age?

Lol

Long term la..

It's in my secondary core holdings (potential blue chips) along with HLIND, SAM, ORIENT etc...

I'm invested since 2013 at a cost of 1.65 per share.

i'll accumulate more below 8.50

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 16, 2019 05:04 PM | Report Abuse

Fabien...but why would Temasek help Malaysia?


Oh...i don't look at it from this angle.

I look at business fundamentals only, aerospace prospect is good...their track record...good management...strong relationship with major aerospace...decent moat..

On other note, i wish i have the conviction such as yours.

4 stocks.

My core portfolio consists of 5-6 stocks. Include small exposures will add up to 28.

Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 15, 2019 07:55 PM | Report Abuse

For Sam engineering, it is a company based it's factories and plants in Penang, ergo usually led, semiconductors and hard disk drive. I personally don't like this business, as I don't see any long term future in manufacture of drives. As someone who started with floppy disks on my 186, then moved to hdd, then the move to solid state, I have a good friend who worked with Seagate. He was retrenched. I realized the tooling industry is not very amenable to change with new equipment expenses and long term return. Especially if your equipment and entire manufacturing methods change almost overnight.

For it's aerospace division, the only company that I have looked at before was Boeing, Airbus and Barnes aerospace. My take on this: the aerospace business is dominated by Boeing and Airbus and they have new and old engines to be maintained. It does not favor the MRO suppliers and market. By doing a comparison of the business in Barnes and Sam you see a very clear similarity. There are only a limited amount of planes that need to be replaced and maintained every year. And each new growth will be driven by new and different types of planes, meaning new upgrade in capex, lower margins and most importantly, an inability to grow organically because best competing prices are always wherever is nearest to the planes. It's a very standardised business, and cost of export hampers growth.

Then again, if it wasn't everyone would be sending engine casing from plants in China, UK and US.

Personally, it's a interesting business, but the profit margins compared to Barnes aerospace division gives me a skip.

I still think it's a fine business with ok prospects 5-10 years from now, but I'd rather look for companies with either high growth and low profits, or lower growth with high profit earnings, while protecting shareholder value. But I do like to buy companies with a clear business advantage ( like boring and Airbus), or superior tool manufacturing model. I don't see that for sam within the next 5 years.




SAM is in my core portfolio.

Semiconductor outlook remains strong given the increasing adoption of smart sensors, IOT etc. though the earnings from this division is highly cyclical and inconsistent.

The main attraction of course is the aerospace division. Their major growth driver. Management is keen to grow this division to 80% revenue through expansion and opportunistic acquisition with Aerospace business in their 2016 Crossover Project.

HLI
2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
OCF 478,494 378,221 331,610 234,196 193,206 222,779
CAP -26,700 -34,394 -51,638 -52,437 -45,288 -64,574
FCF 451,794 343,827 279,972 181,759 147,918 158,205

Average FCF 281,054

net cash 800,006

MFCB is a long term investment.

I'm invested since 2013 at a cost of 1.65 per share.

Hong Leong Industries

Posted by 3iii > Jan 14, 2019 07:28 PM | Report Abuse

>>> Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 14, 2019 07:19 PM | Report Abuse

Oriental

Honda selling well

But very dinosaur

Suitable for 3iii<<<


Avoid.

Was recommended and promoted strongly by raider in past.

Value trap.


Care to explain why u think its a value trap?

very much like Oaktree/Howard Marks

Choivo Capital
2635 posts
Posted by Choivo Capital > Jan 12, 2019 02:48 PM | Report Abuse

Icon,

I expect to under-perform the index in bull years, and beat it in normal or bear years.

Though tbh, malaysia index is kind of rubbish, so i expect to beat it during bull year.

Over a 20 year period, i expect to beat the index very comfortably. And value investing is the only one that can provide that consistently.

Having said that, if OTB make 100% in bull, you make 50% and i make 20%, with the index say 15%.

I'll be extremely happy. They are worse things in life than to make a little less profit than the

wah Icon...u also bought MFCB?

Public forecast 200-260m annual profit.

Taking the lowest 200mil, prospective PE is only 7x.

should have buy last month.

everything was on fire sale.

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 10, 2019 09:42 PM | Report Abuse

Please elaborate the point below


1) Any stock that you buy cannot be sold at a loss within 2-3 years of buying it unless you can say with a high degree of certainty that current IV is less than the current price the market is offering.


i follow his 2-3 year rule strictly

basically, what he says is business changes takes time...months or years..2-3 years should be enough time for the cloud to lift

why not more than 3 years u may asked...he emphasised greatly the real cost for waiting....the opportunity cost of investing ur capital elsewhere

there is a balance between allowing sufficient time frame for a stock to find its IV and waiting endlessly

5 to 10 years wait is too long..again take note of the real cost of waiting

Posted by Icon8888 > Jan 10, 2019 06:09 PM | Report Abuse

Bought already

Kindle


Really??? Lol...
Did u check him out before u buy?

He's a copycat of WB and CM la...hahaha
u hated the buffalos...

anyway, my key takeaway from his Dhandho Framework that i have since applied
1) Any stock that you buy cannot be sold at a loss within 2-3 years of buying it unless you can say with a high degree of certainty that current IV is less than the current price the market is offering.
2) Sell when the gap between IV and current price narrows to under 10%.
3)Dhandho Intrinsic Value calculation

I like his IV calculation so much..that i used it often to play around with my stocks..lol...syiok sendiri

but to use the Dhandho method, ur stock must generate positive FCF...

recently, my investment thought process is greatly influenced by Mohnish Prabai

Posted by qqq3 > Jan 8, 2019 07:53 PM | Report Abuse

now that I know 3iii guy got these three features

...very low turnover of portfolio


portfolio management should be dynamic.

every now and then, one should reevaluate its positioning in light of new information. i make a point to review my portfolio positions at least half yearly, revalue every stock to make sure no significant changes to the IV and there's enough MOS.

which is why it is important to build up an extensive watchlist. so that u can replace the old with new.

don't put a timeframe in "holding" ur stocks. sell when the gap between IV and current price narrows to 10-20% range.

jaya tiasa is worth a look

probably the cheapest plantation stock based on EV/HA of less than RM25k

sarawak plantation land, judging from previous M&A transactions averaging around RM65k/HA

Of the 10 stocks, i have exposure to only TA.

yes, look forward to Icon write-up. no analyst coverage of HLI yet..

Thanks Jon.

I would include that in my 2019 reads.

So far, only bought 2 books by Nassim Taleb...fooled by randomness and black swan.

Read some bad reviews on AntiFragile.

Anyone has read it? can share your take on the book?

None of the 6 stocks under my radar. Totally no common ground to start with..lol

To add further on Calvin's criteria:

1) High net cash - 30-40% of market capitalisation
2) Strong liquid assets
3) Strong balance sheets - massive discount to book value
4) Strong FCF generation - FCF yield above 4%, higher than risk free yield
5) High dividend yield - strong FCF will support its dividend payment
6) Reasonable valuation with good earnings prospect
7) Undervalued relative to its earning power
8) Good management

Generally, reshuffling portfolio towards increased defensiveness. I have bought the following stocks
1) Hong Leong Industries
2) Oriental
3) Focus Lumber
4) Favelle Favco

when it drops back to PE 5-6x maybe i'll reconsider Padini again.

Coz its cheap enough then.

Padini has long been overvalued, too high expectations of growth being pricing in amid unrealistic optimism and driven by investors' GREED.

When the sentiment reverse or when market starts to realise its mistake, eventually the market will "correct its past mistake" by bringing down the valuation to its fair value.

So the question now is what is the fair value for Padini? At current price, is their ample margin of error? is it undervalued?

back in the days, i bought Padini when it was pricing at 5-6x PE with yield 4-5%.

that was the time when u know u have found a hidden gem.

95% of market participants have no clue on what they are buying and absolutely zero knowledge on the value of the business

yes, agreed. excess cash should return to shareholders.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/aa/tong/portfolio

anything is possible in a market crash

fear and pessimism dominates

RM6, 5, 3 or even RM1...who knows..

drop to rm6 i'll be jumping in joy

let's hope it will happen