FGV options:

1) do nothing - continue bleeding. May not be acceptable
2) privatization - too costly for Felda to do it alone.
3) asset injection/ buyout by new major shareholder - if foreign partner, sensitive issue politically. if local, who? There is a report in the Edge mentioning Syed Mokhtar has formally submitted proposal to save FGV. MOF officials confirmed the submission and regarded the proposal as credible.

While the actual work is happening in the background, we may have to bear with the piecemeal info from news report which may swing the share price up and down. But something will have to happen as the current state of affairs is not sustainable.

Hahaha.... in the case of FGV. Very true indeed.

So what can we expect after C16 expiry? Slowly climbing up?

What can we expect for the upcoming quarterly result due this month? CPO price in Q1 averaging around RM3000, so shud be ok right?

Technically, its technical chart is not that promising as it closed below 50 and 200 SMA since last week.

Less panic selling now. Hopefully price can slowly recover from now on. Last week drop of over 15% for no obvious reason is really puzzling.

I noticed the raw sugar price has dropped from USD 21 in Q3/Q4 2016 to USD 15 currently.
That represents a drop of almost 30% in sugar cost price!!!

Plus, with the new sugar price hike early this yr we can expect FGVs 51% owned
subsidiary- MSM margin to increase significantly this year vs last year. This should be positive for FGV as the profit contribution from MSM can be quite significant !!

Notice that funds esp EPF, PNB and Koperasi Felda keeps accummulating MSM since early this year.

There is a small coverage in Focus weekly that Felda subsidiary is bidding for long term logistic services contract for CPOC (JV project between Perronas and Thai PTT) . Maybe a good thing if it can secure the contract

http://nexttrade.blogspot.my/2017/05/fgv-whats-up.html?m=1

Looks to me today is the right time to enter. Anticipating a slow climb back to above RM 2.00 from now on. I could be wrong but good luck all.

Interesting coverage on Felda and FGV in TheStar today. From my understanding, it will remove the burden on FGV having to pay RM 250 mil on top of 15% profit derived annually.

Not to mention on replanting cost needed as some of those trees in Felda LLA are less efficient (more than 20 yrs old)

So if Felda decided to terminate the LLA, it may not be bad to FGV after all. In addition, potential new partner in FGV in the name of Wilmar may inject further excitement to this stock.

Chartwise, FGV is still on uptrend. Good luck all!!

Profit almost the same as per previous corresponding quarter. EPS drop due to higher number of shares after corporate exercise end of last year.

If can maintain current performance, annualised EPS is 24 sen (minimum). PE 8 = 1.92, If PE 10 = 2.40

Profit margin increased despite lower revenue. Not too bad after all. Just my 2 cents.

Down but not out yet. As long as FGV can maintain 2.03 or above, the next upleg is still intact. Currently FGV is slightly overbought and current price weakness is expected.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck all!

Nice uptrend FGV!! Slowly but surely!! Good luck all

Nice!!

Down with small volume over the past 2 weeks. Price well supported so far. Players are still in most likely. Judging from WB movement, next upleg could be just around the corner.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck all!!

CEO purchasing the share directly from open market. Good sign? Good luck all!

Saturation again at 2.04. Last time it happened at 1.90/1.91 level and shot up instantly to 2.18 highest. Interesting to see what will happen this time. Hopefully a pleasant one. Good luck all !!

Technically strong as FGV able to close at 2.04 or above for the past few days. Huge T+4 volume was well absorbed today. I expect FGV to continue to trend higher next week. Good luck all!

Splash consession is a cash cow for Gamuda. The more the delay, the more value can be extracted

FGV looks beaten but not out yet. Technically still hold to close above downtrend line. Good luck for tomorrow !!

Looking good. Breakout after saturation at 1.90/1.91 level. If close 2.04 or higher, should expect uptrend to continue. Good luck all!!

Looking good. Breakout after saturation at 1.90/1.91 level. If close 2.04 or higher, should expect uptrend to continue. Good luck all!!

Fgv looks saturated at 1.90/1.91 level now. High likelihood that it will breakout higher soon. Perhaps next week? Good luck all!!

Most likely will continue uptrend after almost 1 month consolidating. Hope can break 1.97 tomorrow. Good luck all!!

Nice

http://www.stocktalk2u.com/2017/03/technical-analysis-mar-2017-gadang-9261.html?m=1

The breakout last Friday may signal the beginning of bigger thing for Gadang. Todays supposedly
large T+4 volume was well absorbed. Patience is key to reap maximum return. Good luck all!!

After last Q3 announcement in Nov 2016, market has assumed the worst for FGV i.e full year 2016 loss.

Todays result announcement may caught the market by surprise, judging from rush buying in the afternoon session. It is not entirely surprising. After all, the CEO has repeatedly saying "the worst is over for FGV".

Looks like FGV start doing spring cleaning (i.e closure of unprofitable mill, refinery and rubber processing units) and MSS which should drive profitabilty higher. It is better late than never in this case.

Hopefully, with more optimism FGV can slowly claim its lost ground. Chart wise it is an uptrending.

With GE is around the corner, this counter will surely offer some excitement in the months to come. Good luck all!

Nice uptrending pattern. Higher highs, higher lows. Slow and steady climbing. Good luck all !!

FGV is an uptrending stock now. Higher highs, higher lows. Enjoy the ride. Good luck!!

Privatize is off course one of the option, but at what price?

Let say if privatize at IPO price (unlikely), will Felda have the financial muscle to do that? I doubt so, unless the Federal Government step in. Again, more taxpayers money may be used which may not bode well to them esp when GE 14 is just around the corner.

On the other hand, if privatization is done let say at a premium (30%) above the NTA of 1.71(i.e RM2.22), that will result in huge loss especially to those IPO subscribers. This is also quite unlikely.

Rafizi may be right to describe that FGV is stucked in between a rock and a hard place after all.

I also remember reading an article that speculated Tradewinds Plantation may buy a stake in FGV from a major shoreholder. Again this is still a speculation.

With all these news out there, it is clear that there is a clear concern about FGVs mediocre share price/financial performance. And hopefully things are underway to reverse the share price upwards, whatever that may be.

Good luck all!

Break 1.73. Hope can sustain with higher volume to confirm double bottom formation. Good luck all!!

A new year, a new beginning..... hopefully. Only time will tell.

http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2017/01/02/fgv-optimistic-of-emerging-stronger-in-2017/

enning22, my assumption of RM3000 average CPO price in2017 is premised on:

1) MYR vs USD will still remain under pressure in 2017. This will make CPO more attractive vs competitor oil (i.e soy or vegetable oil) which are USD denominated.

2) lagging el Nino impact. Production expected to recover only in Q3 2017

3) higher biodiesel mandate in US and Indonesia to drive demand higher.

4) world population growth to drive higher consumption, driven by India and China.

5) formation of CPOPC between Malaysia and Indonesia to stabilize CPO price (if materialize).

Let say CPO price average for 2016 is RM 2500.

And average CPO price in 2017 is RM 3000.

Assuming FGV can produce 3.0 million tonne per annum (this is achievable based on past years record).

Forecasted additional profit in 2017 = 500 x 3,000,000 = RM 1.5 Billion in 2017!!

Now with no more M&A, plan to optimize current assets plus the cost cutting measures, I believe the likelihood of achieving the above profit in 2017 is high.

Hopefully, the formation of CPOPC will become a reality to stabilise CPO price with the recent purchase of EHP by FELDA.

Some info on merit of purchase of EHP by FELDA. Interesting facts about the aquisition pricing

https://www.google.com.my/amp/www.nst.com.my/node/199364/amp?client=safari

Actually, I think this Eagle High Plantation (EHP) acquisition by FELDA is a good news to FGV. Why good? I believe because of 2 main reasons:

1) that will end the speculation that FGV will be buying EHP. TheEdge/Deputy Minister report/spin is therefore irrellevant from now on. FGV also formally informed Bursa after market close yesterday.

2) FGV can also get back ther USD 175 mil deposit which was paid in mid 2015. Exchange rate then was 3.75 vs 4.47 now. Estimated gross proceeds of RM 128 million just by exchange rate difference. This is significant.

But the not so good news is Felda will be roped in to buy EHP. Hence taxpayers money will be used in this case.

Just my 2 cents. Good luck all!!

Nice

Ring. Indeed like Adcool and TheOne, I also find your insight of the palm oil management/operations very informative. Appreciate your sharing and comments.

Clear sky ahead for FGV. Less T+4 volune to cope from here onwards. Good luck all!

Turnaround/rationalization plan + CPO price recovery + speculative election play = drive FGV up

As long as these 3 factors are intact.... the price should eventually recover.

Not to mention MSM already hike 30% up for their premium sugar price in November. Good luck all!

Indeed, there is always two sides of a coin. As long as we have enough conviction to buy or not to, we then should just execute our plan.

There is no point to argue who is right or wrong. After all we are accountable to our investment decision. Only time will tell.

Ring, I do read Focus and the thing about Fgv is bulk of it production comes from smallholders via the LLA. And this are the ones that is pulling down their yield because most of the trees there are old and the cost for replanting that has to be borne by these small holders is huge to them.

In the recent Budget announcement, there is an allocation to these small holders to address the low yield issue. And this will greatly benefit Fgv in the long run since the LLA is only unique to Fgv.

I believe other plantation companies have better yield simply because they have better control on their replanting programme. And for this, direct comparison in terms of yield with other companies may not be that straightforward in the case of Fgv.

Just my 2 cents.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." --Sir John Templeton

1.61. Not a bad closing, back to where it was last week. Panic sellers and short term players should all be exhausted by now. Hopefully, FGV can start to recover from here driven by its turnaround/rationalisation plan, recovery in CPO price and GE14 speculative play.

Future earnings prospect looks bright from here. Good luck all!!

I think price should stabilise and rebound further from this level. Good luck all!!

Not a bad day... absorbing selling pressure. Afternoon selling volume also thin, still anticipating a meaningful rebound ahead.

Btw, PM announced election will be held soon ka? How soon? What will happen to FGV? Maintain below RM2 only ka? Only time will tell.

Absorbing profit taking around 1.59-1.61 level. Thats the last level seen last week before the news appeared in the Edge weekly.

Hope sellers are exhausted before next push up for a meaningful rebound. Good luck all!!

Looks like the CEO statement has been 'misinterpreted' by The Edge this time. The impairment is for business rationalisation and improvement after all.

If the rationalisation plan brings greater efficiency and cost optimisation, it should be positive for FGV actually. Only time will tell. Good luck all!!

Nice closing. Hope this will lead to a meaningful recovery!! Congrats and good luck to all!

Down severe enough. Hopefully FGV will have a meaningful rebound either today or tomorrow. Reloaded at 1.44. Goodluck all!!

FELDA, FIC and FGV are three separate entities. FELDA is 100% owned by the Federal government. FIC is a non-listed investment vehicle to invest in non-plantation related (i.e hotel in UK etc) business. And FGV is the listed entity.

I think the AG finding is on FELDA, not FGV as FGV has appointed its own auditors. Nevertheless, this news may affect the sentiment as FGV is majority owned by FELDA.

Heard FGV will report Q3 results tomorrow. Any idea good or not?