supermx2, the offer is already unconditional. You are saying now they are just going to up and cancel it? You think its that easy? This is the stock market and is regulated. You cannot just cancel this unconditional offer now just as you wish.

To quote Tony:

“I have said this many times, let the results speak for themselves. Let’s look at the fourth quarter (2016) numbers.”

But if NTA is 2.14 and next quarter is a big result and the quarters after that still in the black with dividends aplenty and founders increase their stake big time then you know you are quite safe. Even more when the company is a leader in the market and do what they do the best then you can feel more safe.

Nobody can predict the bottom. You try to time the market and it will leave you behind and you will be too late. Patience is important but not to sailang at rock bottom but to buy in stages in good spread as it falls. Good luck to all.

Im in at 2.18. Accumulation phase started for me. Will average down till 1.75 if it hits. Good luck to me.

“I am shocked how some analysts look at things, but we will have record growth this year"

"We are moving as per our timetable and these are good quality bids and bidders,” he said.

Quoting the article.

Those who are harping on boogeyman worries pls go read the article that cruger just posted a link to.

Tony answering alot of uncertainties there. Great article!

2.10 or 2.00 not so easy guys. Unless you believe RM will weaken pass 4.50 level which at this point doesnt seem likely already as trump is taking office Jan 20. Fund flow out on rumour and stop on news.

You cannot expect to be able to buy in all at the bottom. At 2.20 i will start to buy in stages. I will do 4 rounds starting at 2.20 to average down my holdings now which is too high.

Looks like recovery next week. I will get some at 2.20 if still possible.

My gut feeling tells me this could be a turnaround based on timing of everything. AAC newsflow may be imminent altho deal still not yet.

When uncles and aunties and small kid are overly bearish, that is one sign the price can turnaround.

I think based on yesterday and today that AA wont break 2.00 level. Lowest should be 2.00 if it can even come. Might rebound from here already.

Looks like BB are collecting now at this level. With time to AAC looks like wont go too much more down. Once trump takes office also i doubt anymore FF flowing out..

Hope you are right JJchan. Im being very patient now altho price very appealing.

Shorties still need to cover hence i dont understand what kind of person will throw to shorties lower than this..

Too strong buying interest. Worried that my sub rm2 entry cannot be attained.

Wah really cannot imagine what kind of person is selling it at 2.17. Hahaha really hard to understand.

Aiyo what is this...mana selldown..

First time in awhile ive seen on negative days like this that buyers are killing the sellers at 3pm onwards..

Sellers cannot break big walls of buyers

2.17/2.18 seems very very cheap now..very close to NTA..very tempted to buy in..

2.17/2.18 seems very very cheap now..very close to NTA..very tempted to buy in..

AA was supported at 2.50 to keep it up, once that was breached they let it slide without much support. Now at these levels of 2.20 and below money will come back in to support out of pure cheapness. Very hard to slide like from 2.50 to 2.20 already in my opinion but if it happens then i welcome it at 1.80 hehe

Thats one of the pillars on why i believe aviation industry is back to life now. Thats why china companies are buying planes like no tomorrow for leasing and berkshire hatahaway is finally buying airline companies. Oil will be cheap for long.

Big pic is renewable energy will keep oil prices down long term. Have you noticed that the saudis are on a master economic plan to transform their economy? It isnt because they are running out of oil, its because they realize now that the days of oil dependency as a stable and dependable source of govt income are over. You can ask nicolas maduro and venezuela this question as well.

octop, oil price going up why? I predict oil price will end 2017 at $55. If you think opec and non opec prod cuts will balance the market then i would disagree. You have too many issues that will derail that for example sticking to quota by members, decline in demand from china from their strategic stockpiling as prices go up, US shale possibly adding prod between 500k to 1mil barrels and also libya and nigeria production going up. Net long positions are at an extreme high. Any signs of any of these and prices tumble again. $60 is probably peak before it move back down.

Ringgit hit 4.50 and recover and now AA can stage recovery from 2.20. Will wait to see if this pans out but looks possible. Could signal an end of trump trade as he is about to take office. Upside for US priced in and any disappointments on expectations go send money rushing back to EM.

Nice trade JJchan

Hahaha reclaimed 2.20! Sellers losing steam it seems for now.

JJchan, any data on latest FF level? Bold to be trading AA now hehe

curious2 its impossible for anyone to know the bottom but if you ask me, I believe the bottom could potentially be around tony's PP price so i would say 1.80/1.90 level.

Curious2, impossible to predict the bottom but if you ask me, my personal gut feeling is around tony's PP price so i would guess 1.80/1.90.

As far as increase capacity and price war goes, im not buying it. Increased demand not only locally but in AA case regionally will outpace the increase in capacity easily.

AA movement resembles the movement of ringgit and MGS. It is under pressure now due to short term holders but the long term holders will indeed stay put and not sell. Once ringgit stabilizes so will AA because this will mean that those short term FF are done selling and then it will be a long wait for either a positive catalyst like AAC to push stock price back up or if that fails then for short term FF to come back in once they feel like US growth potential isnt as good as it seemed which is firmly believe to be the case.

Yes!! Faster go to my avg down price. Im waiting!

Salam, not sure for anyone else but for me its easy. I see the price go down and still i never get worried or sad etc. Sometimes i feel slight excitement at the opportunity to buy some more cheap but i try and control that to avoid itchy fingers going in too soon and buy in higher than bottomish.

There is something i learn a long time ago as a trader which is to moderate your emotions in trading and stock market. Dont invest too much emotion in it. To do so dont use more money than you are confortable with. Its quite similar to sports in a way. Losing in world cup finals you will see some players cry and some who are ok with it. The diff is emotional investment. Invest your money, not your emotions. Make your trade and move on with your life and have patience.

To me even if you are not a pro in FA or TA then you can just use some LA. LA will tell you that CEOs will not pump in money and take personal risks in investing money in their company unless they see good upside and positive data on their management level. Some ppl may try to twist this and say they need to do so to inject capital for the company in a time when it needs it etc but thats quite silly as there are numerous ways to raise capital without CEOs taking it upon themselves personally. Ask any CEO..they will tell you the same.

Playplay, airasia's movement is not surprising to me. FF participation in it is high. There are long term FF and short term ones. The short term ones are exiting due to repositioning and when this happens it can be severe. They need time to offload and this will push down price down just like this. I believe it can even go to rm2 or rm1.80. Need not be something scary lurking around the corner.

When fear is high enough and price is low enough then it will be a good entry. Now almost there as even here alot ppl already talking about boogeyman stories i.e "something we dont know".

End 2.23. Waiting at Tony's price to average down my long term holdings. After that will hold till profit or i die.

Once AAC bids announced, all the fundamental debates will be seen as just a side note. Markets go crazy for cash payouts, always have and always will because its cash in hand. It will rally then so now you guys just rest up and clear your mind and relax. Short term FF are almost all out so the downside is almost played out. It will consolidate then move up with AAC bids announcement. Thats it.

Your load factors are at all time record highs and cashflow is great and capital injection coming in with plenty of asset disposals to free up even more cash and you worry about them strategically adding more planes to cater to increased demand and expand which is something they have done so well for 15 years? hahaha

You cannot just look at the added plane capacity in the coming years and conclude price war. You must also factor in the the strategical approach of the various airlines. If the approach was market share at all cost then you will see huge profit deterioration and even losses. This was the phase that we went through the last 15 years but no longer now. Players now are no longer in the position to take on losses and are not willing to either. In the war that lasted 15 years, AA already won.

As always there will be competition in the aviation sector but margins are determined by the players. Where rational competition is decidedly the objective then all can profit and albeit some more than others. AA is adding the capacity simply the cement its position and grow in the coming years to bigger and stronger and more dominant. You cannot get around capital injection to do this but it is totally normal while cashflow is strong and loads are at record numbers and profits should not suffer from this point on because of that.

2017 hopefully better year for our market as it has been 3 years of negative movement already. FF holdings also very very low after 3 years of flowing out. Im still waiting for AA to make up her mind to move uo or down but at this level it seems like consolidation might happen.

FF still selling. Index up today but AA down due to short term FF still going out. Still got some ways to go. 2.00 very possible. I wait there for now with ammo.

This volatility is perhaps a suggestion that the bears may be losing steam. Need a few days of this movement for that to be true and higher highs.

Look at NTA...i dont think normally it can drop below 1x but if funds wanna go out and no support then surely it will