Just simple window dressing la. See after new year whether FF still taking money out or not cause if yes then just let them and wait for it to be over. I think theres more outflow to go until we see trump start talking about economy and then the funds might come back realizing US economy cannot grow solely on fiscal spending as the inflation caused will derail private consumption, cause trade deficit and kill corporate spending.

Too much "game" psychology here. My opinion is if you think too much on terms of "push down" or "trap" or "lure" then you take too much of an emotional view on things. Sure stock manipulation is normal but it is not as prevalent or easy as you think in big fluid stocks like AA. The degree of risk on trying to manipulate big cap and fluid stocks is extremely high that not alot of operators dare do so out of fear of being burnt. If you're thinking smaller and less fluid stock with high holdings by a few parties then yes it is so much easier. In AA alot of the movement is fund movement and positioning rather than manipulation.

Right now alot of short term FF that bought in post GMT at a low are getting out due to repositioning to the US and the very fact that their positions in AA is still profitable. After 2.50 broke there isnt much buying support anymore therefore the price needs to trend alot lower on thin trading for them to sell and this is what we see recently. This is why i will buy below Rm2 only as i feel they are not done yet and for them to match their volume that it will trend alot lower on thin volume. This is just my opinion.

Yes cruger agree. But the payoffs for me has always been good :)

BusinessFinance your friends work in AA? Are you aware that the founders are putting $1billion in the company now? Sure the price is RM1.80 but the main point is why would they do it in the first place it is set for huges losses going forward? Capital injection in their baby means they know what we can never see from the outside which should be robust growth for the next 10 years type of knowledge.

Don't be too emotional on short term price movements. If you are emotional now then you need to understand that this is the self-defeating trait that will hold you back in investing. This phase in share price movement for AA is not anymore significant to what has always happened in the past. It has gone down and up so many times more severe than this without any real long term reasons. So why do you need to attribute doomsday predictions and factors to this price movement now? You are just letting emotions get in the way.

AA has been in a fight for market share for the last 15 years that has eroded margins in order to stay ahead in this fight. This fight is now largely over as the biggest competitor has changed its approach and doesnt have anymore ability to absorb losses.

Oil has been as high as $120s in this period as well. Now it cant even get pass $60 even with the biggest oil producer pact in the last 15 years.

AA is going into a phase to cement its place as the market leader with fleet expansion starting next year and years after that if you havent realized yet. Its doing this to consolidate its place as market leader and to make any future competition against it futile. It can do this now as its won a 15 year fight.

All these things wont just go away with the share price movement now so its best to recognize what is happening now for what it is which is bearish external sentimen on ringgit and fund repositioning to US market. Don't get too emotional. You don't have to think you will die because you have a cut on your finger.

I will top up at tony's price of rm1.80 only. Otherwise i wont put more money in it until the sentimen tide really turns back to positive. Unfortunately it may take quite some time as the bearish sentimen on our local stocks, bonds and currency is quite significant.

Valuegrowth good analysis and assesment altho unfortunately for AA right now it is completely short term external sentimens that are dragging it down. All this will dissipate eventually but a catalyst is required. AA due for some concrete news on AAC disposal and then it will turn.

Valuegrowth- thanks for the infos! FF shareholding is still very high! Let those saying ALL FF is selling AA understand the diff between long term FF holders and short term FF holders.

Aiya so many days low volume already. Quite bored to watch so i dont bother anymore. Take wife and kids to do some shopping and enjoy. Ringgit and FF selling seem to base out now. Waiting for new direction. 2017 will be very busy year for AA in terms of corporate actions. Shareholders can look forward to alot of price action as well and dividends hopefully. Still hopeful for a good 4th qtr but for now when there is nothing to do, do nothing.

Its an obvious capital rush into aeroplane leasing by china firms that are flush with cash. Aeroplane leasing offers great margins and good returns on equity. But now you see many many deals being done in the last 2-3 years and picking up...why? If you ask me its because of the well accepted fact of the great margins but now added with sustainable earnings outlook due to crude oil staying low for the foreseeable future and big growth in air travel around the world. This is why smart money is flocking into aviation. This also means that AA would be considerably higher now if not for the global funds flowing back to US. But remember, this is short term and imo it has subsided already. Its just that out local market needs fresh catalyst if its to move higher.

Once you are a susbstantial shareholder more than 5% your buy and sell transactions are there for everyone to see...

BNM international reserves pretty much unchanged in report today. FF outflow last week on bursa has stopped. Could be an inflection point as Dow is at all time high as well and face psychological resistance of 20,000. Things may level off for awhile waiting for fresh cues.

When i see retailers call for a sell on the leading low cost player in the region with great cost advantage at PE 3+X, renewed rational competitive environment, growing topline and expanding fleet and business reach with multiple corporate exercise to unlock value for shareholders just months away then ultimately i know why i always make money in the market. Youve got all that and the price drops and retailers run. Sometimes you have a company at 20X PE, losses every other quarter and no solid business bavkground and there is a rumor about it that something is brewing and the price is spiking and retailers yell buy! Hahaha

Lets face it thats the retail mentality. Easy to manipulate and easy to make money off.

I say this with a firm belief that oil would not go above $70 per barrel. Even after a historical deal between Opec and non opec, oil has not rallied as it should as per the past. This is a clear indication of the new environment for oil.

Don't just focus on oil price and currency levels. What's essential is margin. In times when cost increases can a company pass it on? Let me tell you why now is diff than the last 15 years. I believe industry players will put profitibility first now due to need to turnaround and no room for loss making bailouts. This means that compared to the last 15 years, now AA has the room to pass on more of the increase in cost to customers if it needs to in order to stay profitable bacause their competitors will need to do the same now to also remain profitable.

I am not saying they will do this to offset increasing cost completely but merely they have a greater allowance and flexibility which means for us shareholders; better profit visibility and probability.

Secondly, growing the topline; they dont need to just increase cost, with better cashflow and better gearing, they can add to their fleet with new planes to increase revenue which they are already doing. Further to this the plan to grow the ancillary from rm45 to rm60. Put this 2 together and you need to be careful of having a mentality that the oil price and currency weakness can have the same effect it did for the last 15 years.

As per the selldown? There could be many reasons. But be reminded that ppl also sold it down to mid 0.70s level at one point only for it to rebound to 3.30s not too long after. Any market that can do that to the same stock over a short period of time doesnt seem to be very complex thought to me. So now sentiment is not all good and hence the market is simply reacting the way it always tends to. You should just let it. The market that brought it up to 3.30s will come back eventually because the fundamentals and operating environment for this company is as good as ever.

When stock price is down u will hear the typical noise of fuel cost, forex weakness, debt pile etc etc. When price is up u will hear great managment, low cost structure, leader in low cost aviation etc etc. My personal view is this is all just typical banter to coincide with price movement. It offers very little in terms of long term outlook. Its all just talking about what everyone already knows and thats why retailers are often behind the curve and at the mercy of fund movement swings.

If you really want to make money as a retailer then you need to look beyond the banter and recognize talking points that are more long term. Sometimes when i hear ppl talk down AA i wonder if they ever thought logically that if AA cannot make it in aviation now then who can? Then how are you going to fly balik kampung and go for your yearly trip? After all you are saying the leading low cost player in the region also cannot be profitable. It must mean in 100 years that there will be no more aeroplanes? Haha just a simple and single logical observation.

Mike90, do you by any chance know the current FF holdings % in AA? You can ask JJchan but my suspicion is it is above 50% right now. Hence still at normal range. Hardly saying goodbye imo.

Ive seen ppl buy up a 100x PE company before and now ive seen ppl sell down a 3.3x PE company. Hahaha investment can be crazy sometimes.

Weak holders will be pushed out. Then things can move on.

I think some short term FF are cashing out by end of the year to realize their gains in AA. Next year the selling should ease off. I will standby to collect a small portion by end of the year. Hope to get around 2.10.

If RM break 4.50 then it can hit 4.80. Those will be interesting times indeed but as always, I am comfortable with my investment so i feel no issue just going about my day. Next year AA will unlock alot of assets which is a wet dream for shareholders especially if we get a slice of those assets thru special divvys.

Technically all out already. That's what BB wants then wait all panicking ikan bilis to sell a gem at PE 3.3X to them.

At the height of GMT, the foreign holdings was still high above 50% i think. If you check now i believe the foreign holdings is still above 50%. Also put together Tune's holding and EPF and its easily near 80% now. AA has high volitility and played by BB so you know why it can drop to mid 0.70s and rebound back to 3.30s. Keep that in mind when you panic hehe.

Hope we will get a good payout as well when IAA IPOs...

Valuegrowth, what u wrote turns out to be correct as MIDF research has concluded the same. No one off losses to absorb. All loss equity acccounted in full already.

Cruger, 4th qtr always super qtr..

Aiya this is simply FF managers off on christmas break already. BB left playing push down price abit to collect cheap but not many sellers so volume super thin. Can push down because wont trigger avalanche. Those sell this point out of panic...kesian.

Valuegrowth, if that is true then thats a huge advantage for AA but not for Airbus! Your logic makes sense as only the ratio seems to change and not the rate but thats a huge concession from airbus...seems too good to be true..

Thank you sifu for the clarification. I thought as much as i posted same time as you. Coupon near 10%?Fantastic!

This perpetual security is converting the debts to perpetual securities with coupons i assume so does not involve injection of any money. The question is how does it play out accounting wise. I would this that its straight forward as the perpetual securities are non convertible to equity right and still outstanding as per AA balance sheet? Is there any need to reclassify it?

I do not think it will effect AA but i do not how much losses are not accounted for since the latest profit is fully reflected in AA bottom line? An accountant would know better tho as im not clear on the practice.

JJchan, today should be a good day for shorty to attack on rate hike and projected rate hikes for next year but its quiet today. Whats going on?

JJchan would they be able to recover their shares from retail selling? I doubt institutionals would throw AA at this price and point.

Sephy i dont know whether you are joking or not but everything you have commented is completely baffling. Do you know anything about shale depositries and fracking technology? Firstly i did not say that US drillers can restart existing wells to get back to 20mil bpd, I implied that this number was achieavable in the future if prices of oil stay elevated for an extended period of time.  

Secondly fracking technology and efficiency is a highly evolving topic which ultimately means that the amount recoverable shale can change just as the technology is changed and thus nobody in this world including you can put a number on recoverable shale. There is only a number of how much shale is technically recoverable under present technology and oil economics which reserves recoverable is comparable to conventional oil reserves or more or less 1 trillion barrels but again this number can easily rocket up with time and improving technology.  

I would spend more time explaining but i do not want to waste time on something so obviously absurd

I kid you not, shale can reach 20 million bpd if oil stays above $60. Alot of new oil has been found and drilling economics and efficiency is at an all time high thanks to oil boom and bust which shale producers have taken it as a challenge to get better and better and they have. OPEC market strategy has done nothing but to make shale a bigger and stronger challenger.

Oil will not stay up for long. Anybody familiar with futures trading will know how much shale producers will hedge production over $55. And if it goes to above $60 then serious drilling and rig counts will kickstart again which is followed up by more serious hedging by producers. Thats why bulls cant win in the market as there is alot of excess by shale that can come back online very quickly starting with the 800 thousand barrels dropped from the peak then more capacity from new oil drills above $60.

My opinion is mostly will be special divvy.

Incredible few days of trading in AA. I think the bulls are tentatively ahead for now. Hope for the best next week. They've done well especially these last 2 days.

Yes surely you will get higher since you have an unsolicited offer earlier at $1bil. I estimate $1.2bil is possible just because of the great response and flush of liquidity from these funds that need some high margin business.

Getting a 13k watch from your boss and partying till 5am with pretty stewardesses. I need to update my CV and apply already...

Thanks RMaster for clarification..

Perhaps the chosen non-binding offer enters into a SPA with AA and then goes thru due diligence yes?

Do they choose 1 non-binding offer and go thru the due diligence phase or do all the potential buyers do their due diligence regardless?

I read that the binding offer will probably presented to board in march. I think seller and buyer are tight lipped because trying to avoid speculation. I wonder if we will know more anytime soon...perhaps not.

So much volume at 2.55 but cannot break it decisively. Need big push today to turn bullish and reclaim 2.60s and then 2.70s..

Yeah...hope afternoon will continue. I wanna realize huge profit with AA. Special divvy in hand and profit on share only i will let go.

Yessss goooo!!!!

This is 2 giants staring at each other

taepodong, I agree with high divvy as market discounts alot of AA solid fundamentals. Now i think might as well have cash in hand.

Looks like a strong attempt to get back up tho. What says fund flow expert JJchan?