If you wonder why PHB rising now when PRGL is falling, it's simple. You look back in late May/early June. Look at PHB and PRGL price. PHB shareholders did not believe in the appreciation of the PRGL share price. Now PHB share price is highly depressed...even if we take PRGL to eventually stabilize at HKD1.00. So PHB prepared for a super worst case scenario. I believe there is room for it to now stabilize between RM0.55-0.60.

@Godhand, problem is 20-30% YoY is likely not enough to maintain the stock price above RM1.70. Recall we are coming from a low base last year due to prolonged plant shutdown, which escalated costs and reduced topline production.

@lloydlim, that's a faulty logic. You should be buying cyclicals when the P/E ratio is high and selling them when the P/E ratio is low.

To be fair I've never been this excited for a Q report before. I think the excitement stems from the fact that either it will surprise on the upside (>RM25mil) or downside (<RM20mil). The former will lead to a rally above RM1.80, the latter will cause a fall into the low RM1.60s.

@stockraider, I am not saying management is dishonest at all. You just got to be smart to dissect the financial statements yourself.

I don't care about inventory turnaround times - as long as management is claiming there is shortage of materials + extended plant shutdowns for scheduled maintenance, BUT at the same time there is an inventory build-up...it is never a good sign. Management are not liars or dishonest...they just have no reason to give you all the fine details. As an investor you find this yourself.

Read books by Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham and Seth Klarman...they all echo that you only start buying into a turnaround when the inventories are being driven down. Now Evergreen has to store so much inventories, yet it still claims there is shortage in production. Doesn't make much economical sense. Storage costs will increase, and worse still if these are old/low-grade inventories they will eventually get written-down.

Evergreen is now officially on my watchlist, but not cheap enough for me to buy in just yet.

What BS, I don't believe this supply issue. Look at their inventories, RM230mil plus, and is increasing over the past few quarters. Revenue is at RM250mil...almost 1:1 ratio with inventory. This DOES NOT make sense if they have a supply issue...inventories should be run down in that circumstances!

Compare to say, Heveaboard. Inventory to revenue ratio is at 0.4:1. Inventory on a declining trend. For them to claim of shortage makes sense...not for Evergreen though. You guys need to be smart in dissecting the balance sheet.

Sure some of their product segment may have been impacted by shortage...but it seems oversupplied across most of their product. Not to mention despite plant shutdown for maintenence they still can have such an inventory buildup while talking about shortage...just plain BS!

Look at their analyst presentation slides. Their unbilled sales are rapidly declining, most of their ongoing projects already reach >90% completion, and there is only RM120mil GDV launched so far this year (plus another RM50mil by year's end). Next year GDV is around RM300mil.

If you add the numbers up, it's very clear that revenue is going to take a massive hit going in to H2 2017 and all the way through 2018.

Tambun might still be a decent long-term buy at these prices, but if you want to go in....don't go all-in one short. Allocate 1/3rd of your capital now, and average down the next 15% fall and the following 20% fall.

The beauty with Tambun is if the management is interested, they just need to buy some nice landbank and that will act as a major catalyst to boost share price by some 20-30% immediately.

Looks like a major fund manager has parked there. Could be EPF, local unit trust company, or a foreign institutional investor.

Also, it could maybe just be smoke and mirrors. I don't know. But the buyer will likely disappear if there is no seller at RM1.20 for that big block of shares.

I kinda regret not jumping in at RM1.18 when I could...but then again no hurry. The news about the Vietnam delay into Q3 FY2018 still has not reached the masses. I imagine once management officially announces it there will be further weakness in the stock. In fact, EPF has started disposing, likely due to the Vietnam delay.

Also, to have confidence that Hevea will not suffer the same fate as Evergreen, look at the inventory size relative to revenue. For Evergreen it is almost 1:1 ratio, which is very bad. Their inventories are rising. Meanwhile Hevea's inventory to revenue ratio is just merely 0.4:1...which is extremely healthy, plus inventories have been on a downward trajectory.

Do not lose hope and faith guys! Just a few days to go...

Evergreen has nothing to do with Hevea. Look at the financial statements. YoY all past 5 quarters in the red for Evergreen. Hevea meanwhile has been going from strength to strength.

Hevea is fully Malaysian, Evergreen is majority Thailand. Hevea particleboard is less than 50% of their top/bottomline (RTA is largest contributor). Hevea has higher value products with superior margins, and relies less on raw labour.

To me it is pointless to compare the two.

Also, Evergreen had plant maintenance. Read the explanations.

Enjoy the moment while it lasts...all that matters now is will local institutions push it higher? It's up to them. Retailers can't do anything ore.

This week is results week. We either see consolidation around RM0.74 - RM0.76, or we see a surge towards RM0.80 - RM0.82 in anticipation of better results. Doubt we go down back to RM0.68 - RM0.70 levels.

When does AA Q2 report come out?

"Buy in near to RM 1.20, Cut Lost at RM 1.17"

Haha what a joker. I wish people did this. Depress the price further!

Shortinvestor, any materials to share for their top picks? Usually they give out slides or something.

Quarter report seems to be later than the norm?

Anyways, and sharp drop due to reduced profitability should be seen as a buying opportunity.

I think it will continue falling to about RM0.85 levels, at which point things get attractive. At the moment still not cheap enough. Better bargains elsewhere.

"anyway coast is clear for Longists now"

Means? Just wondering what you're saying.

Misi minggu ini untuk pulang ke tahap RM1.70-an dicapai. Minggu depan pula report kewangan akan keluar. Ayuh, sama sama kita nantikan pendakian harga seterusnya.

Come in lah. Who is this imbecile?

Either way Armada green the whole week. Not bad. It all hinges on the quarterly releasing in next Friday. I expect RM100mil core net profit at least (excluding any supplementary one off payments that is).

Prepare for a run-up and then a sell-down next week, like what happened for Q1 results.

KS55, don't talk so much nonsense lah about the PRGL results.

1) Why keep quoting the bottomline? To spot turnarounds you always keep an eye on the operating profits and operating profit margins. That's where the first signs of turnaround/improvement will show.

2) That revenue has decreased QoQ (due to natural festive period effect) but operating profits are higher should be a very positive sign. Why are you spinning it to be a negative?

3) Regarding depreciation:

"Depreciation and amortization decreased by RMB23.6 million or 13.1% to RMB156.3 million. The
decrease was primarily attributable to savings from stores closed and renovation from old stores that
has been fully depreciated in 2016 and 1H2017. On a same store basis, depreciation expense
decreased by 10.8%, mainly due to the fully depreciated assets mentioned above."

I don't see any hanky panky with the depreciation. If you add back the RMB23.6 to the operating costs for H1 2017, you will still get a net operating profit of ~RMB50mil.

Parkson Retail Group's current P/BV is at 0.55X, which is neither over-priced nor under-priced. The price may fall a bit, but the Malaysian listing of PHB already is far off the value of PRGL.

Hard to predict what will happen...

Of course this is discounting whatever PHB's core losses could be (i.e. Parkson Credit, Parkson Maju Junction etc which come directly under PHB rather than PRGL/PRA).

Another thing to add. You need to look at the finer details. Like how there is lower revenue QoQ but higher operating profit. This means costs have been brought under control and there is continuous improvement in that regards. Operating profit margins up from 2.5% to 3.5% QoQ.

Maybe I am clutching at straws but I would like someone to show how Parkson is worse off today compared to the previous quarter of this year, or the similar quarter last year.

For the bonds, I don't think there's much to worry about as bonds can be eventually refinanced. I believe Parkson is waiting to refinance at the last possible moment to show that the turnaround plan is working to some degree in a bid to pay lower coupons on the refinanced bonds. They will likely pay off a portion of the outstanding face value at the same time.

Eh, contrary to the above, I think the result is positive. This are the signs of a turnaround plan that is working. We can't just jump into profitability right away. First, stem the losses. Based on Q1 and Q2 2017, losses do seem to have been stemmed. Costs have been brought down, revenues have been increasing.

To me, I'm satisfied with the result.

If you discount the bonds, CL has fallen from 3.83bil to 3.24bil. NCL has risen slightly from 1.19bil to 1.24bil.

Shareholders equity has increased, after decreasing for many quarters.

Operating profit from -51mil to +70mil.

Some numbers not shown in the financial statement but are positive development:

Q1 2017 revenue: 1.255bil
Q2 2017 revenue: 1.114bil
Q2 2016 revenue: 1.081bil

Q1 2017 operating profit: 31.216mil
Q2 2017 operating profit: 39.349mil

Q1 2017 income tax: 17.7mil
Q2 2017 income tax: 36.5mil

------------

To me all the above is proof that the turnaround is in progress, and is working. There is a net loss mainly due to the hugely increased taxation vs Q1.

Each to their own, but I hold my Parkson shares bought at RM0.64 for now. I will not top-up more, but I think returning to sustained profitability for Parkson in China is achievable now. Again, the most important thing is stemming losses, and Parkson has done this. Now we move on to phase 2.

I am happy yes. Patience and research paid-off. Market makes lots of noise. Question is, can you separate the noise from the signal?

In my entire stock investing life, I have thus far only made 11 buy transactions. 3 of those were for Armada (0.605, 0.630, 0.685). No other company stock has been purchased more than once. And I averaged up (unlike most people who average down).

Anyway, can’t be too excited. Tomorrow we may suddenly go back to RM0.70...who knows. What I CAN be absolutely sure about is that I will hold the stock to RM0.92 at least. Once we hit that, I will start thinking about selling. And if the story hasn’t changed but the stock regresses to RM0.6xx levels once more, then you bet I’d be thinking about a 4th round of top up!

Godhand where do you get the figures from.

Should bode well for Hevea. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/japan-reports-second-monthly-trade-surplus-as-exports-rise-again

@gohkimhock, this is the type of counter that can double or triple up...OVER THE LONG TERM. 3-5 years....easily double or triple up if you know the expansion plans of the business.

Does anyone know when the report out exactly? Maybe ask the management via phone/email.

Haha >100%. I think 30% is more reasonable, maybe even up to 50% given the low base effect. Anything more and I don't think it's possible.

No sellers this week....only buyers (low volume). Sounds ominous....

I already bought my first tranche last month at RM0.775. Not in any hurry to buy in a second time. But hard to see the stock falling below RM0.65 or RM0.60 to be honest...so if it falls on weakness below RM0.66 I may buy the second tranche. Otherwise, I wait till end of October to top up again at ~RM0.70 levels.

I mean logic says that with net cash stabilized at RM0.43/share...that is the absolute floor. If somebody today comes in and takes the company private, more than half the market cap is made up of net cash.

MMHE will fly, yes, but only once a major contract is awarded. Pegaga due out Q1 2018, by Q4 2017 insiders will start buying.

In the absence of a clear catalyst, MMHE can't go up above RM0.75 I think.

Buy now, and just keep it aside for 3-5 years. Since your money doubling/tripling/quadrupling over the years...!!!

Guidance is issued usually to "soften" blows. So now the market knows what to expect. It's a massive impairment exercise. Likely hoping to start anew for FY18.

To me I don't care about PRA, I care about PRGL. That's the meat of PHB.

Must invest with Direct CDS. No charges. Nominee makes you pay!

Please lah understand, IPO is for owner to cash out

PRGL results out this Friday, i.e. 18 August 2017. Judgement day awaits!

I will decide to cut loss if I deem the company to be unsaveable. But if there is any glimmer of hope, I shall continue holding.

Boss, please explain about the share premium issue?

Most of us already buy at lower values, now enjoying the ride up! :)

Looking at the thin buy queue makes me excited....but let's not get too carried away.

Wow left one lonesome lot at RM1.70. Good thing we are back in RM1.7x territory. Let's maintain here for a while now.

Interesting, however both P/E and P/BV are at high levels. Would rather stay away cause this is just banking on the CX-5 knocking things out of the park.

All the best for the week ahead. Here's to hoping fridays news provides much needed catalyst to drive share price upwards. Will be interesting to see how analysts rate the job win. Hope to see us return back to RM0.7xx

By the way guys, I often monitor the Parkson China website to see if they have made changes. And today finally I see that the Parkson China website has changed!

Can somebody please translate whats going on? What do the things on the website say? Is there a new app launched? This could be positive development going forward.

http://parkson.com.cn/

Royce, your calculations are correct. However, NO ONE will ascribe the full value of the sum of parts to the holding company. As such, there is often a penalty of 30-40% called "holding company discount".

Also don't forget, above and beyond that Parkson Holdings Bhd has got its own core properties and businesses such as Parkson Credit.

Pmetal is a defensive counter? Holy hell, it's in one of the most cyclical industries.

Anyway, here's to a good week ahead for Hevea, let's get back into the mid RM1.70s!

Ah well those are not going to be awarded anytime soon.

Also, I think Bumi should not take on anymore large FPSO project in the next 12 months, I.e. Till Q2 2018. They should focus on executing all at hand perfectly and start paring down their debt. It would be good to land one or two small/mid size contracts. Once debt is lower, then take on a large project, so that it doesn't require the raising of additional equity.

They can likely pass through cost, but not so fast. Immediate quarters will suffer a margin compression before the cost is fully passed through. Might present some buying opportunity in 2-3 months time (compounded with the warrants thing).