Invest malaysia, does.cimb mentioned whether these prices were for Nitrile, Latexx or blended ?
---------------------
The research house expects ASPs per 1,000 pieces to reach US$77 (about RM319.92), US$39 and US$29 respectively in 2021, 2022 and 2023, adding that it is “of the view that ASPs will decline to pre-Covid 19 levels” (US$21 to US$24 per 1,000 pieces) given the higher production costs and higher consumption patterns.

When are you going to push the price down to 3 and below so that I can do my last buy and has a better average ? I am still waiting .

------------------
GlovesOff can see glovers clutching at straws ... everyday come up w desperate excuses
01/07/2021 1:10 PM

Myinvestor, thanks fir sharing the news. Many investors omitted the fact that supermx has another income source which is SUPERMX DISTRIBUTION Division. In the last one year Supermx OWN.Distribution has been. contributing 35 % of its total earning. It has contributed a total of more than one billion in the last 4 qtrs. I believe supermx will strengthen its position in this division. The lower ASP from factory help this division actually as it can " buy gloves" at lower prices . 58 % of supermx gloves sold through its own Distribution centres.

------------------------------
myinvestor Aurelia gloves Canada has became the mask manufacturer (420m capacity) and distribution center for various healthcare products. See attached.
I wondering how much contribution of revenue and profit to Supermax Malaysia.

Beary, I have no idea on TG short position. I dont monitor shortimg positions. I normally spend time on.fundamentals.

Beary, the 1918 spanish flu pandemic killed 50 millions. There was no vacciness then. With today 8 billion population , a 2 % mortality rate means 160 millions death. A big price to pay . Vaccination approach is still far better. Just need to develop new vaccines every year to combat the new mutated cunning covid 19 viruses.

--------------------------------------
Beary Perhaps Trump was right after all.

The best way of course of course is China's sledge hammer method.

But when the virus is already wide spread, the sledge hammer method is not possible.

We then should have just gone for herd immunity and let the virus be defeated naturally like the 1918 pandemic.

Vaccinations will only buy the virus more time to evolve and become stronger.

Short term gain, long term pain.
01/07/2021 10:00 AM

Moneymakers , it takes years or decades for humans to adapt to covid 19 like flu. If you are infected after vaccination , the damage on your body especially your vital organ like lungs is still substantial even though you may not need to go to hospital. It is more scary than flu . Flu can be deadly also but how many % of peoples go for flu vaccination? Dont.dismiss the dangers and risks of getting infected with covid 19 especially the delta variants even.you are vaccinated.

The British never learn. They opened up too soon thinking that vaccines are the cure for all. They underestimated the ferocity of Delta variants.
-----------------------------------------------
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/delta-variant-threatens-plans-lift-pandemic-restrictions-across-world-n1272687

Toneefa, yes. Now I can.understand why Malaysia lose to Vietnam on Maths . Sigh.

MM ,GF, IM ,GO ,
May be my calculations is too complicated for you guy. Let me make a very simple analogy. If a man sell a watch for rm 1000. He make a after tax net profit of rm 100 . Then he decided to increase the price by 15 % to rm 1150 . He make an additional rm 150 right ? But this additional rm 150.is subjected to.a 25 % tax. After minus the tax, the additional profit is rm 112.5 。 Therefore total profit is 100 +112.5 = 212.5 which is double his original profit of rm 100.
Understand Now ?

Invest malaysia , gloveoff , glovefinish ,money makers,
Please read this article . MARGMA expect Post Pandemic ASP to be 40 to 60 % higher than pre pandemic ASP. In my opinion , it is very very unlikely post pandemic ASP will be at pre pandemic level . The reason.is very.simple. Inflationary. Ask yourself , can you.get a similar cup of coffee today at 5 year ago price? Can you get a bowl of wan than mee at 5 year price ? Can you get the same soap , detergent, milo at the price 5 year ago ? I remembered one bowl of one than mee cost 50 sen 40 years ago. One plate of char koay teow cost rm 4 five years.ago. Today is rm 5.50 . Dont expect.gloves which is a necessity to cost the same as 2019 price in 2004 or 2005.




https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/hleresearch/2021-04-06-story-h1563185501-Rubber_Gloves_MARGMA_Meeting_Takeaways.jsp

Beary, I am.like you. I can hold and have the patience. I will do my last buy below 3 if it goes down to that level. I and you know the value of supermx stock. Your video confirm.the seriousness of this Delta variants. You take good care as the number of cases in Malaysia dont seem to go down.at all.


-----------------
Beary Pjseow, don't worry about your temporary paper loss.

Watch this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARvKEXacpT0&ab_channel=CBSNews
30/06/2021 6:48 PM

Glovefinish , you asked me to confirm a 15 % higher ASP can double its profit and value of its share. I did it and show you the detailed calculation. Instead of commenting on.my calculation , you jump up and down like drunken prawns kena.whisky. Why cant you be objective a bit.


---------------------------/-/---------------------------
glovefinish pjseow, How do u confirm a 15 % higher ASP can mean doubling of profit and double its value of its share? How u calculate on that?
30/06/2021 4:59 PM

Glovefinish , moneymakers and invest malaysia.
Read the article below. Vital Factor Consulting projected ASP will drop to US 38 in 2024 while Frost and Sullivan peojected ASP to drop to US 24.6 in 2025. Our assumption of US 27.6 during post pandemic is still considered reasonable . Dont get too hung up with the numbers. No one knows the future when it is 3 to 4 years away. Myself and Observatory has used US 24 during the normalised post pandemic period. Any prices higher like US 27.6 , 30 , 35 or 38 will be a big bonus to those medium or longer term investors.
The key point I want to covey is a small increase of 15 % higher than US 24 ASP can produce double the earning. Imagine the normalised ASP is US 30 or higher during normalised state.
It is just mathematics. Dont get overly excited.


----------------------------------

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/822959

Glovefinish, you asked me to show you how a 15 % increase in price can result in. more than 2 x profit. I .takes time to show you the calculation . Pls critique on my calculation. I will respond to you. I am not talking about beating the market. Why you deviate from your original request ?

I am very happy to hear that Topglove executive said that post pandemic ASP will be SLIGHTLY higher than pre pandemic ASP a few days ago .
I can use US 27.6 per 1000 pcs now instead of the previous US 24 per 1000 for my worst case scenario .
Observatory can also use US 27.6 per 1000 if he wish . His new value will be rm 3.30 plus rm 2.52 or total rm 5.82 . He can also interpret Slightly higher as 10 % more which is fine too .

Glovefinish and Moneymaker ,

Assuming ASP of US 24 during post pandemic ,capacity of 48 millions , utilization of 85% , exchange rate of 4.15 and net margin of 10 % .

Manufacturing Revenue = 24 x 48 x 4.15 x 0.85 = RM 4063 millions

Manufacturing Profit = 4063 x 0.1 = 406.3 millions



Now , the ASP is Slightly Higher at 15 % than US 24 ,

This additional 15 % ASP is = 24 x 0.15 = US 3.6

THerefore Addtional Manufacturing profits is

Additional profits from 15 % ASP = 3.6 x 48 x 4.15 x 0.85 = RM610 millions
Since this additional profit is subject to 25 % tax ,
Net additional profit = 610 x 0.75 = RM 457 millions

Therefore total profits from additional 15 % ASP = 406.3+457 = 863 millions . THis is 2.12 X of the 406 millions when ASP is at US 24 .

If you use the same PE of 15 , the target price will goes up by 2.12 X which is very significant .

Therefore dont play play with Slightly higher 15 % , It can means a lot .

Invest malaysia , initially when you quoted topglove Snr director said ASP will go back to pre pandemic. Frankly , I do not believe . I gave you the benefit of doubt that you may have heard wrongly . True enough ,Now you admitted that ASP will be SLIGHTLY HIGHER than pre pandemic . Even 10 to 20 % higher make a big difference in earning especially the margin goes down.to 10 %.
A 15 % higher ASP can mean doubling of profit and double its value of its share. Thanks for the correction.
------------------------------------
invest_malaysia Slightly higher ASP. Habis
30/06/2021 3:45 PM

Invest malaysia , now your second.version.is SLIGHTLY HGHER than.pre pandemic. This is still different from what Beary quoted as follows

ASP eould remain high post pandemic

----------------------++-
Topglove executive director said ASP May drop to SLIGHTLY higher than pre pandemic price
30/06/2021 1:49 PM , no

Beary, I supposed you have gone through the interview。 the following.statement is what topglove director said.
It is a.complete different interpretation by invest malaysia who claimed that ASP will go back to pre pandemic.

How can

" ASP Could Remain.High Post Pandemic"

be interpreted as ASP.will go back to pre pandemic level. There is a.hell of different.

------------------------------------------------
He also said ASP could remain high post pandemic due to higher demand just like what I think.

Aiyo , share last year AGM inputs from supermx also so much huha from non supermx shareholders. I share this because we want to know the dividend policy and also how supermx can achieved the BEST MARGINS compared with other glove makers. I and observatory has differences on.the OBM distribution profit margins post.pandemic. The Chairman Cheok has briefly shared in point 5 that supermx will strike a balance between paying dividend vs expansion which will enable the company to give more dividend in future. I together with the MSWG will ask the supermx management on the sustainability of OBM OWN distribution.margin post pandemic . I am optimistic because if factory glove ASP come down., it benefits the supermx distributors with lower cost. the profit margin will be even higher or maintain the current margin by selling lower to final customers.

Observatory , Beary and Toneefa , I happened to find this article. We can ask.more.specific questions in the next AGM which will be held in either late Aug or September.

------------------------------------------------
https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/kianweiaritcles/2020-12-11-story-h1537534273-5_things_I_learned_from_the_2020_Supermax_AGM_Shak_Chee_Hoi.jsp

Agreed. The last update from MARGMA was about 3 months.ago. Will wait for new demand and supply plus pricing projections update from MAARGMA. Three.months ago, the Delta variants was in India only. It has not spread . The demand and.ASP situation.might change now . I prefer to listem to MARGMA rather than topglove only because Topglove lost the US market which has better pricing than the rest of the world.
-----------------------------------------------
glovefinish pjseow, not necessary what MARGMA said will be forever permanent like that. Everything subjects to change over the time. What MARGMA said last time possible change different things over the time depend on the changing business environment. Need to update frequently and always ready to adjust self to accept the possible changes.
30/06/2021 12:16 PM

Invest malaysia , This is contrary to what Margma s view which projected post pandemic prices to be 40 to 60 % higher than pre pandemic. MARGMA represent all glove makers in Malaysia . I am very surprised LWC or Topglove director said that post pandemic price will be the same as pre pandemic. You hear wrongly or not ?

Invest malaysia, do you mean those glove founders and hardcore die die hold senior directors plus some super long term.investors etc.are 徒弟？These peoples buy on dip but never sell. They are super rich ? 徒弟?

----------------------------
invest_malaysia 会买是徒弟，会卖才是师傅
30/06/2021 10:58 AM

invest malaysia , I did not come.across such.article. Can you.share the link? thks

----------------------------------
invest_malaysia @beary, topglove executive director said ASP can go back to pre pandemic level. Who should we trust? You ah?
30/06/2021 10:30 AM

GloveOff , what 2020 chart ? Look at the latest chart lah. Didnt you see a long green color bar ? This is the first soldier . Need another 2 more to confirm strong bullish reversal. Just wait another 2 days loh. Why sue shorties. I must thank.them for selling.cheap to us and they need to buy back.at higher prices. They sell low buy high so that we can buy low sell high mah. Sue them for what ?

GloveOff, I am waiting to see tomorrow and day after tomorrow prices. If the next 2 days also up , that means the three soldiers which I have been waiting for prove strong rebound and bullishness. By then.you.had better advise your boss to quickly buy up and cover the shorts ASAP to ""cut losses "". Shorties " cut losses" are opposite than our normal cut losses. When prices go up, shorties need to buy more to cover and this will pushed up the prices further .

Forget about IB s reports. They are followers . Remember I forwarded to you 6 IB reports in.May with average tgt prices of rm 7.30 . You dismissed them. and said cannot trust these reports. Why suddenly you are so interested in fundamentals . I thought you are TA.fellow talking about market sentiments. Today market sentiment change already. You had.better stick.to your old expertise. Follow the market.sentiment .Dont go against it .

Scientists have been working on.flu vaccines for decades but its effectiveness is still.about a year. As for HIV., till.today.scientists are still.working to develop an effective vaccines. It is everybody wishes to find a good and long term.vacciness but we have to be realitic.




---------------------------------------
GlovesOff Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines may provide lifetime protection against COVID-19, a new study suggests.

This could mean that Pfizer and Moderna recipients could have long-lasting immunity - for years or potentially the rest of their lives - and may not even need boosters, reported first by The New York Times.
29/06/2021 6:40 PM

Invest malaysia. It s okay. No need to explain. Only difference of opinion. As you said earlier, the local retailers are not strong enough financially to move the market. Some bigger funds started to come in. Will.see tomorrow.and day after tomorrow to confirm. I thought.you bought a lot below 3.5 . You said 再跌再买，再跌再买 last week。You.should be happy when the price went up. right ?

Good try. The number of cases has been increasing for the last two months in Malaysia but the stock prices went opposite directions. Hence , there is no correlation between the two. In my opinion, time is ripe for rebound plus the increasing spreading of Delta variant infections in.more than 85 countries has more to do with todays rally.


invest_malaysia Wahlao. @pjseow. I taught you’ve been investing for 10+ years? Market always react faster than news one you don’t know? And retailers always is the latest to get the news
29/06/2021 4:52 PM

You mean this morning the retailers knew the number of cases will be more than 6 k ?
----------------------------------------------------
invest_malaysia Today rebound mainly due to the cases in Malaysia. Not ASP increase. Sell while it’s good.
29/06/2021 4:00 PM

Wow, this rebound seems like a repeat of April rebound.

I think the expenses will be staggered until.end of 2022.. They may have paid 10 to 20 % in the last 2 qtrs. You can read the last 3.QR.reports to get more details.
--------------------------
Debonnaire Thanks for the info @pjseow. However, is that 1.39B been factored in already when arriving at 4B cash in hand in the last quarter or will the expenses on expansion to be staggered over time as the expansion takes place?

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pjseow 1.39 billions

Delta.variant infections will surge in US. Very transmissive.

-------------------------------------------------
https://www.fastcompany.com/90650661/delta-variant-in-the-u-s-this-cdc-tracker-and-map-shows-where-its-spreading

1.39 billions
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Debonnaire How much would SM use fm their RM4B cashpile to upgrade their capacity locally in producing 48 billion gloves by 2022?
29/06/2021 1:21 PM

Gloveoff, Why you talk like that ? You are TA expert mah. I want to treat you as TA sifu also cannot ? Can buy today or not ? Should I wait and buy at lower price when there will be margin calls as what you claim ?

Invest malaysia, there are no Warren.Buffet in i3 forum. The Warren.Buffet equivalent are the founders of all the glove makers plus their senior
directors. They die die hold whether rain or shine. They will add more when prices are low.
-----------------
invest_malaysia Now very obvious already. Up 10cents everyone very excited. Isn’t it gamblers behavior? These so called long term investors are gamblers. They care about people talking bad about their shares.

You try to talk bad about AAPL. See warren buffet cares or not.
29/06/2021 12:34 PM

Beary is enjoying his Straw Berry at home . hehehe. His six sense not bad leh.

Glove Off , Harta., Kossan and Supermx up more than 12 sen already . Should I listen to you and wait for rm 3 or below to do my last buy ? I very scared to lose the opportunity to buy at lowest . Tell me . I am very kan chong now. What if it suddenly shoot up.30 or 40 sen in one day like last April ?

You mean I still.got chance to buy.at.3 or below ? OK. I listen to you and wont do my.last buy today. You dont disappoint me ya .

-----------------/--/----//-/-----//----


GlovesOff Haha careful what you wish for . An article or bad news away from margin call . Never say never ...
29/06/2021 12:02 PM

Gloveoff, Objective implied not bias loh .Fair valuation loh. Look like I cant.get the price at 3 or below for my last buy . You guys do not work hard enough. Beary and Observatory more chun loh whether by doing FA or six sense.

I thougt you concurred with Observatory valuation by thanking him . So I just ask glovefinish and moneymakers their opinions only. Not debate lah. Enough of debates lah. If they dont want to comment . I am ok . It is their rights. I will respect their rights.



--------------------------////------------------
GlovesOff @pjseow no point debating FA la ... one qs, you think funds santa clause push up for retailers run ???
29/06/2021 11:36 AM

Moneymaker , why dont you write to him and tell him which of his asdumption is incorrent . He will reply to you one if anyone ask him in.a civilised manner.

Glovefinish, what is your comment on observatory valuation of supermx at rm 3.30 ? His assumption is glove price and net margin go
back to pre pandemic normalised state , capacity increased to 48 billions pa and nett cash discounted to present value ?

GlovesOff , since when you trust the local IB reports ?

Observatory , Both Harta and Supermx actually had utilization of 70 % and 80 % respectively due to plants shutdown in last qtr. Harta shipped only 6.7 billions pcs vs 9.5 billions during its previous qtr while supermx lost 330 millions revenue which was equivalent to 15 % lesser shipments compared with their previous qtr. Since the 60 % production.only implemented in this month, its net utilization for this whole qtr should be about
82 % using simple maths. Harta should see a better qoq in coming qtr while supermx the same qoq respectively since both companies re iterated that the ASP rained unchanged in this qtr during their last analyst briefings. The RHB latest report is too generalised without.details. I.will.just take their input as a pinch of salt.

I also read RHB report with amusement. If Malaysia which.supply 65 % of the world s gloves has its production affected by MCO , then.there should be a worldwide shortage like what happened to the semicon industry a few months ago until now. Using the supply and demand theory, ASP should be maintained instead of peaking now. It is.so funny, just a few months ago, all the IBs are.shouting oversupply oversupply when the expanded capacities and new comers have not really kicked in yet . Look.at it in positive ways , the MCO in.M alaysia should create more shortages rather than oversupply. . This is good in.maintaining the ASP to a longer periods.

Agreed Toneefa , my purpose of joining this forum is for sharing and make money not picking on.anyone for a fight.
-------------------------------------------------------------
ToneeFa @CharlesT Pjseow's sharing brought many to Holland...

In Jaks n Supermax...

Scary
28/06/2021 8:10 PM

CharlesT, I think a ceasefire meantime will be good. U guys should be on the same team. Pls don't start again.

Australia locked down.again due to Delta variants.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/around-70-australians-under-covid-restrictions-amid-delta-variant-surge-2473854