invest malaysia , You should worry more for your Genting and Airasia which are having huge debts and still burning with bigger holes . I find it amusing that you seem to worry more about your neighbours house which may be leaking with coming rain while do not worry about your own house which is already burning and will continue to burn .
Why you worry about so much about supermx which has been earning record profits and will continue to make big profits .Even with ASP coming down , it will still make billions per year although lesser . Why are you so pessimistic with a company which make record profits in the last one and half year and growing its cash piles to billions and billions with almost zero debts while remain SO Optimistic with Genting and Airasia which lost billions in last one and a half year with huge net debts amounting to billions and will continue to lose billions in the coming years .
Talking about ASPs and demands , Genting and Airasia has almost zero demands and zero ASPs . Airasia used to have many flights per day from Penang to KL but recently zero flights for the whole of June and July . Next two qtrs results sure kaput .You not worry I worry for you wor . You should worry more for Airasia and Genting rather than worry about ASP coming down for supermx . Dont you think so ?

Obsevatory , thanks again for your reply.

We have no idea how supermx distributors sell their gloves directly to their customers . What we knew is that supermx distributors signed many contractual agreements with big accounts like hospitals . What are the enablers which enable supermx to get rid of the middlemen from March 2020 ? It could be the pandemic or it could be the internet . What is more important is the change which produces the explosive results and the confidence of supermx management moving forward facing intense competitions .

Based on the last paragraph of the PROSPECTS from last QR , supermx management is confident of its business model and well established distribution networks . It stated that

" The expectation is that competition will intensify going forward .
Nevertheless ,we are confident that our sound business model and well established distribution networks built up since 1989 has prepared us well for all challenges ahead."

Observatory . Thank you again for your reply . You are also a very detailed person who had done a lot of analysis .I am delighted to have such detailed sharing with you .
You have provided a valuable information on supermx trading or distribution profit margins in the past . I had a 34 pages supermx Analyst briefing slides dated 9 August 2020 but unfortunately I am not able to copy link and forward to you because it was whatsapp by a friend . The slides contained valuable information about the change in the business model . I quoted 3 changes in my earlier reply to you . In my opinion , the most important change is the removal of middlemen like dealers , agents and brokers which take a big chunk of the profits during pre pandemic periods .
Slide 13 showed a series of bar charts with pricings of different proportion from factory , GPO/Traders /Brokers/Agents , distributors and lastly dealers . The first two bar charts showed the various cumulative layers of OEM and OBM cum distribution prices during pre pandemic . Supermx blended factory prices were between US 20 and US 23 per 1000 pcs but when it reached the final customers , the prices is about US 90 after going through the distributors plus other middlemen . You can see how many X the prices were inflated from factory to the final customer .
After March 2020 , supermx management cut off all these middle men and sell direct to customers for the 58 % shipments . As for the balance 42 % to Independent Distributors , the dealers were also cut off .

My assumption of 30 % marked up for supermx distributors post pandemic is considered very very conservative if what supermx pricing briefing is true during pre pandemic . At the low of US 20 plus factory prices , supermx distributors can easily sell at 2 to 3 x of factory prices during post pandemic . All the profits used to be made by the middlemen will go to supermx distributors .
I supposed Supermx will not go back to the pre pandemic days of using middlemen again after establishing its own direct contact with the final customers . Supermx also mentioned that they had signed many contractual agreements with final customers with prices locked in . In the last briefings , the management stated that its capacity had been booked until end of the year . New contractual agreements will be signed following the new spot prices of about US 70 to 80 . The delivery is expected to be next year .
I will find a way to send these slides to i3 forum .

Observatory . Thanks for your comment .

I like your statement " If there is no fundamental shift in business model ,the higher profit margin may not be justified ."

Quote from Einstein " It is insanity to expect change if you do the same thing over and over again .
Supermx has indeed shift its business model in March last year .

1. Supermx cut its OEM business from 30 % to 2 % .
2. Supermx increase its OBM cum distribution from 40 to 58 %
3. Supermx cut the middlemen like dealers , brokers ,agents .

This change in business model is not mere slogan but real change . THis change has proven with facts and figures as follows .

The most obvious result of this change can be seen in April -June 2020 qtr which showed a 25.5 X improvement in PAT . If you compare supermx with Harta and Kossan on the same period , they had only 1.3 X
increase in earning .

Let's compare the capacities , Nitrile ratios and earnings of Harta , Kossan and Supermx in 2019 and 2020.

- Nitrile Ratio

Harta - more than 95 %
Kossan - 85 %
Supermx - 68 %

- Capacity
Harta - 36 billions
Kossan - 32 billions
Supermx - 24 billions

Total PAT in 2019

Harta - 410 millions
Kossan - 224 millions
Supermx - 105 millions


Total PAT in 2020

Harta - 1.882 billions
Kossan - 1.086 billions
Supermx - 2.32 billions

Harta used to have 4 x earning while Kossan used to have 2x of supermx earnings respectively before pandemic in 2019. In 2020 after the business model change in March , you can see supermx PAT surpass both Harta and Kossan despite having the lowest capacity and lowest Nitrile Ratios.
IF there is no change , how could Supermx achieve this ?
Why cant Harta and Kossan perform the same in the same pandemic which affects the glove business equally ?
Supermx change in business model is not merely a slogan but real change with proven FACTS and Figures .

From Nomura last qtr report , para 7 from the Key takeaways from supermx analyst briefings.

" In the long term , management sees intense competitive pressure from new players which could bring EBITDA and net profit margin down to 40-50 % and 30 -40 % respectively , which is still SIGNIFICANTLY above its profitability pre covid 19 level .
Based on above statement , supermx management expect the long term combined net margin to be at 30 to 40 % .
My worst case scenario assumed a mere 23 % net margin which is much lower than the management anticipated margin of 30 to 40 % .

Well , at the end of the day , it is up to individual's judgement to trust whether such performance is achievable .
I also like your quote from Benjamin Graham " In the short term , the markets is a voting machine , In the long run ,the markets is a weighing machine ". Finally , it is the fundamentals which drive the market not the other way .

Observatory and Ben Tan ,

Based on my above worst case scenarios , supermx combined net profit will still hit 991 millions which is 9.43 x of its pre pandemic earning of 105 millions in 2019 .

Observatory and Ben Tan , Thanks for your comments .

It is important to note that Supermx has dual income sources . One is the Supermx manufacturing and the other is supermx Distributions .


For supermx manufacturing , I assume a 10 % net margin , 80 % utilization and 48 billion pa capacity .As for ASP , I assume US 24 per 1000pcs for Nitrile and US 19 for Latexx gloves .

Its blended ASP = ( 24 x 0.9 ) + (19 x 0.1) =US 23.5 .

The assumption is by 2022, the 48 billions capacity
will comprises 90 % Nitrile and 10 % Latexx.

Total shipments = 23.5 x 48 x 0.8 x 4.13 = 3726 millions per year
PAT = 3726 x 0. 1 = 372.6 millions

As for Distribution Revenue and Earnings , 58 % of total shipments goes through supermx own distributors in 8 countries worldwide.
Assuming a marked up of 30 % by supermx distributors and a 22 % profit margin , supermx distributors income is

PAT = 3726 x 1.3 x 0.22 x 0.58 = 618 millions

Total Earnings from both mfg and distributions
= 372.6 + 618 = 991 millions .

When you take the combined revenues from both manufacturing and distributions , it is

(3726 x 1.3 x 0.58) + (3726 x 0.42)= 4374 millions

Combined Net margin = 991/ 4374 = 23 %

To summarise , my worst case assumptions are

1. Nitrile ASP come down to US 24 per 1000 and Latexx to US 19
2. Utilization of 80 %
3. Manufacturing net margin of 10 %
4. Distribution mark up of 30 %
5. Distribution margin of 22 % .

In my opinion , the supermx investors should not disregard the change of business model by supermx management in March last year when they cut the middle men like agents , dealers and OEM . You can read the details in last year Financial REport for April and June 2020 . I think the overall margin of 23 % is very reasonable . Based on Nomura analyst input which was obtained through the supermx management , its long term Nett margin is between 30 to 40 % .

Based on RHB last QR analyst report , it give a long term post pandemic blended ASP of US 37 for supermx .This ASP is a combination of the distribution ASP ( 58 %) and factory ASP . Based on this ASP ,
the earning per year is

PAT = 37 x 48 x 0.8 x 4.13 x 0.3 = 1760 millions

assuming 48 billions capacity in 2023 and 0.8 utilization .

Supermx total PAT in 2019 is rm 105 millions .
Therefore the earning multiples is 1760/105 = 16.76 times .
The current price of supermx is 3.9 x2 = 7.8 or 5.6 times of pre pandemic price of 1.40 .
Since its earning is 16.76 x while the price is only 5.6 x , effectively the current price is still cheaper than pre pandemic .

Lets take a worst case scenario of ASP going below the pre pandemic . Assuming blended ASP of US 27 only which is very very conservative already.
THe PAT = 27 x 48 x 0.8 x 4.13 x 0.25 = 1070 millions

This 991 millions is still 1070/105 = 10.2 x of pre pandemic earnings .
That means the current supermx price is still effectively cheaper than pre pandemic .
It also means that as long as the per qtr earning is more than 1070/4 or 267 millions , supermx current price is much lower than pre pandemic price.
I welcome any comment from genuine investors .

There is no point keep talking about ASP coming down . It is a know fact ASP will come down . THe question is how much and when . THe numbers which concern many glove investors are how many X will the earnings be compared with 2019 pre pandemic when the ASP will come to the stabilised state and when.

Let's take Topglove 's last QR PAT of 2.036 billions . The yoy is 485 % when compared with last year similar qtr which is already a pandemic period . I would prefer to compare the yoy of pre pandemic 2019 rather than 2020 . THe year 2019 Topglove make 373 millions .Average Per qtr is 93.25 millions . If you divide 2036 millions with 93.25 millions , the yoy 2019 is 21.8 times . This gives us a good sense that the earning is still 21.8 times compared with pre pandemic 2019 period .
Many especially the naysayers like to compare the current price with pre pandemic prices but intentionally refuse to compare the earnings compare with pre pandemic . Topglove current prices is 3x of pre pandemic but its earnings is still a whopping 21.8 times despite ASP drop of 20 %.
Next is to calculate if the ASP come down to a stabilised state , what its the earning multiple compared with pre pandemic . As long as the multiple is more than 3 , the current topglove price is EFFECTIVELY lower than pre pandemic . That means as long as Topglove earning above 280 ( 93.25 x 3 ) millions per qtr , the current price of 4.90 or 5.00 is effectively the same as pre pandemic .
I will do a projections on earnings for both topglove and supermx when its ASP come down to a stabilised states .

Why all of a sudden, all the naysayers care so much about qoq earnings and fundamentals of topglove and supermx? I thought all this while these naysayers advocated TA or price trends were more important. Whether glove makers make huge profits and give fat dividends are not important. Look at Topglove and supermx record earnings during Aug/Sep , Nov/Dec and Feb/March QR, did the share price went up ? NO. Both came down.despite 3 consecutive record earnings. These earnings were not important to the markets already. Why bother so much? Since.Oct 2020 , the markets already priced in ASP erosion till pre pandemic.already after all the.naysayers day in.day in.brainwashed the retailers since 9.months ago. So now whenever supermx gave a financial result which is better than pre pandemic or yoy , it is consider rvery good. So when topglove gave a 485 % higher yoy earnings than pre pandemic , the share price went up. Markets are.comparing.yoy not qoq because the naysayers have been talking about.comparing with prepandemic.day.in and day out.

Moneymakers, whats wrong with you ? These guidance and briefing slides came from.Topglove management . What do you mean by other peoples?

Billboard , Supermx also took 30 years to have 24 billions capacity. With the new super.earnings , supermx will double its capacity by end 2022 within 2 years .

GloveOff , I quoted Topglove.Zoom briefing slides on the projection. Pls read yourself .


https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/gloveharicut/2021-03-09-story-h1542095175-TOPGLOV_2021_Q2_Zoom_Briefing_The_Best_just_keeps_Getting_BETTER.jsp

Moneymaker , dont twist and turn. This was the message I sent to you quoting Topglove last QR guidance. You are so evil to purposely omit the link which I sent to you together


Moneymaker, Topglove coming 2 QR is expected to be better than previous QR. Pls read the 5 reasons for better 2H QR.
1. Higher capacity
2. better utilization
3. Higher ASP
4. Lower raw material cost
5.


https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/gloveharicut/2021-03-09-story-h1542...#

DJoker89 and Jef3880， thank you.

Topglove 2 b profit is still.a huge profit . How many company in.bursa can.make such profit ?. Dividend yield of 18 sen or 15 % per year is not small amount also. If Genting and Airasia can come alive with share prices up even with 331 millions and 767 millions losses last qtr respectively , should we be surprised supermx and topglove rebounding ?

sinojab, JPM did not cover supermx., It cover only topglove with tgt price rm 3.50 , harta at 8.50 and kossan at 3.80 . JPM came out with these tgt prices in.last DEC. At that time , supermx eps was much better than harta and kossan. Had JPM cover supermx, I think.it would have given a tgt price of rm 6 to rm 7 also for supermx.

May 30, 2021 3:19 PM | Report Abuse

1. Nomura RM 8.39
2. BIMB RM 7.30
3. Kenanga RM 6.80
4. AffinHwang RM
5. RHB RM 6.60
6. TA RM 6.07
====================

Grandpa @pjs , where is UOB tp at rm5 ??? Ashamed to include in list ???


............................................

ONLY JPM was correct, the rest cannot pakai
09/06/2021 2:02 PM

invest malaysia , I cannot understand your logic. Topglove earning 2b or 25 sen eps is considered bad but genting earn 100 million or 2.5 s eps is considered very good . How can a company earn 2.5 s is worth more than a company worth 25 s per share ?

glove finish, I.am just communicating to myinvestor and invest malaysia on the facts about genting and my own opinion that I wont bet on.such long term down trend.stock with billions of losses in the last few qtrs and further unknown losses in the years to come. Dont be so sensitive. If you think you like such high net debts and money losing stocks , go ahead and invest . GL to you. Pls respect my view as I respect your views.This is open.forum.for sharing.

myinvestor and invest malaysia , Genting was already in.longterm downtrend since 2017 . It came down from 9.50 in 2007 to less than 6 at the end of 2019 before pandemic. When pandemic hit the world in.March 2020 , Genting went.down further to 3 . With such a huge debt of 37 billions plus losing 1.4 billions in the last few qtrs, I cant see anything good about genting. We still do not know how many more billions genting will lose in the next few years when there are no visitors from singapore , china , taiwan and hk visit malaysia. I wouldnt put my bet on genting even.there is no.mco.

Cash in bank only tell one side of the story. We have to look at both cash in bank.and borrowings. Supermx cash is 4 billions while total borrowings are only 300k. It has a nett.cash of 3.7 billions. On the contrary, Company has huge cash but even bigger borrowings are actually in net debts. When company is in.net debt and somemore losing billions every year , big troubles is ahead .

Djoker89 good timing. I also added yesterday and today.

Genting long term.and short term borrowings are more than 37billions which is more than cash in bank.
Retained earning appear on the liabilities sides to balance the cash in bank earned as assets. Retained earning is not real cash .It cannot be added to cash in bank .

GloveOff, I dont feel like replying you with your kurang ajar response above . Do you really think I purposely omit the OUB analyst report just because its target price.was rm 5.00 ?
Look at the date.of the OUB.report ? It was dated 17th march 2021 . This was an old report which referred to Oct to Dec.QR 2020. My 6 reports were the latest which were in.response to the last QR from.JAN to March 2021. If you had.asked properly with good manners, I would have reponded nicely to you. After looking all your messages , I know you wouldnt .

GloveOff, This.is the message showing how you kurang ajar humiliating peoples who just post the tgt prices of 6 IBS. Is this how your parents teach you the way to respond ?


May 30, 2021 3:19 PM | Report Abuse

1. Nomura RM 8.39
2. BIMB RM 7.30
3. Kenanga RM 6.80
4. AffinHwang RM 7.40
5. RHB RM 6.60
6. TA RM 6.07
====================

Grandpa @pjs , where is UOB tp at rm5 ??? Ashamed to include in list ???

Dahla tua, blur mvm, jgn senile yaaa

GloveOff , you behave like kepochi or 三姑六婆 want to know other peoples secrets. Behave more like a man lah . Why you like to keep poking at other peoples confidential investments. You.had no other better things to do do ah . Dont behave like fish markets Auntie who are fond of gossiping about others. Bersopan lah. Jangan kurang ajar.

GloveOff, Wah , LU Ingat Forum ini you punya bapak punya kah ? Only you can talk. Others cannot talk ?

Monetary, I think Malaysian shipments had been affected since last July. Read this from.HLI

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/bimbresearch/2021-04-09-story-h1563364122-Top_Glove_Silver_lining_ndash_Overcoming_US_CBP_restrictions.jsp

RiverofSilver, okok. haha.

Citadel and Citadel9999 are not same person, right?

*******

same guy la, same behaviour, same talking posting style
08/06/2021 6:09 PM

invest malaysia , to me serba is beyond quantitative analysis. Once the management has integrity issue like protasco, just stay out of it no matter how low the price had dropped. You cant sleep when you invest in such company medium or long term.

OOPs. I meant citadel9999.

Aiyo, citadel like 过街老鼠人见人打。Even mpney makers also want to hit him. Poor soul like to rub salt on others wound. Now got his karma

Dannyfyl88, I did a calculation . FOr the last 5 qtrs , Supermx made 3.325 billions which is more than twice of what Supermx made ( RM 1.6 billion ) in the last 20 years before the pandemic . With this super profit , supermx is able to commit a cash of RM 1.39 billions cash to add another 22.4 billions pa capacity to make it to a total 48 billions pa by end of next year . Without this super duper profit , supermx can only dream to double its capacity in such a short period of time .
In another 7 qtrs , supermx is expected to make another 7 billions . Supermx can use another RM 2.68 billions to add another 48 billions so that by end of 2024 , supermx can have a total of 96 billions capacity . After spending a total of 3 x1.39 billions or RM 4.17 billions on capacity expansion , supermx still has balance cash of RM 6.12 billions which can be used to pay dividend plus US investments .
I havent added what supermx will make in 2023 and 2024 yet .
Will talk about it later of the year when we have better visibility .
By end of of 2024, the new supermx will be 4x capacity of prepandemic supermx plus big cash piles even after deducting RM 5.44 billions ( RM 2 per share ) as dividend .
If such company cannot invest in long term , I dont know which company I can invest in Bursa .

Elbrutus, just wait for another 2 days, if PAT can touch 2.9 b, then dividend can be 25.2 s like last qtr . If PAT is 2.55 b , dividend can.still be 22 sen . Jangan takut sangat.

Whatever the rates of infections, based on.past history , the demand will continue to.grow after the pandemics or epidemics were over . After Sars in 2003 demand continue to grow, after H1N1 in 2009 to 2010 , demand continue to grow..After the.Merc., Zika epidemics ,demand continue to grow. Therefore , demand for gloves will continue to grow after this pandemic.

elbutrus, yes. I believe topglove can do better than 2.55 b . Last QTR, Topglove delivered 2.87 billions despite having 2 weeks.shutdown in DEC. Topglove should have done better than.2.87 b if there is no shutdown or any other unforseen disruption. However, the container shortages can also.affect topglove shipments. I.am not sure if the recent CBP seizing.of topglove shipments from.its subsidiary has any.effects on shipments.

Gloveoff , how do you.know how much I invested in topglove and supermx ? In life, paper loss temporarily is a norm for medium.and long term investors. I had even have paper loss of almost 40 % of dayang within 3 months and later win.back with double my investment in 6 months later. As for jaks, I also lost 40% for allmost 9 months and later made back 56 % when the price went up again after right issues. AS I.said before, I never entered at the lowest and never sell at the.highest. I am just unlucky and not as smart as you all. That.is why I cannot make big money like you all.smart traders. But I have the patience and holding power. My target return.is only 18 % per annum from both dividend plus price appreciation . If dividend yield is 8 to 10 % per annum , what I need is another 8 to 10 % from price appreciation. I can wait and will add more at lower prices to average down. .

elbrutus, the guidance was given.barring any unforeseen circumstances like plant shutdown or container shortage like what Harta faced last qtr. We have to wait another 2 days.for actual result. So far I have not heard of any shutdown due to covid infections on.its workers.

oops.missed out the most important reason.

5. Strong demand despite shorter delivery time.

Can.expect another good dividend payoutof 26 to 28 sen . Total dividend for this year is expected to be 16.5 + 25.2 + 27 +27 = 95.7 sen.
Wow. almost one ringgit.

Moneymaker, Topglove coming 2 QR is expected to be better than previous QR. Pls read the 5 reasons for better 2H QR.
1. Higher capacity
2. better utilization
3. Higher ASP
4. Lower raw material cost
5.


https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/gloveharicut/2021-03-09-story-h1542095175-TOPGLOV_2021_Q2_Zoom_Briefing_The_Best_just_keeps_Getting_BETTER.jsp#

Expect next QR result to be better than.last QR based on last QR briefing. The.management gave 5 reasons for better.coming QR.

https://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/gloveharicut/2021-03-09-story-h1542095175-TOPGLOV_2021_Q2_Zoom_Briefing_The_Best_just_keeps_Getting_BETTER.jsp

glovefinish . OK. I respect your view and you should respect others views too. Dont humiliate and sneered at others by saying they are fools ,they talked cock etc as though you are.smarter than them. Learn how to respect others views. As Confucious says " Do not.do unto others which you do not wished others do unto you ." In Chinese 己所勿欲 勿施於人。

Myinvestor , thks for the posting.
Singapore import of gloves went up 72 % in April mom despite having good control of infections during early of this year. The hygience awawareness and worry of infections has.spurred further growth of gloves.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-06-04-story-h1566047263-Rubber_Glove_Exports_Rise_Additional_4_75_M_o_M_238_Y_o_Y_in_April.jsp

Glovefinish , I hope now you are convinced those long term uncle and auntie dumb dumb hold topglove or supermx are much better off than those " very smart and clever " traders .
As for the future , medium and long term hold investors will care more than the traders who only look at charts plus some gut feel no substance slogans like ASP going down , oversupply, with vaccines no need gloves, no foreign and local funds , only retailers play lah etc without quoting key sources like Company QR briefing , Margma report ,Monthly Rubber Glove Exports data , Research houses like Vital Factor Consulting and Frost and Sullivans plus the local IBs reports . Although we cant trust all these reports 100 % . These provides guidance so that we can " judge " and estimate future earnings with the new capacity expansion . Even with these guidance, we can be wrong also . What if talks without guidance ? Worst still isnt it .

I have yet to see a single justification with facts and figures from you that how the future is going to be by putting your own assumptions . So far there is NONE or Zero from you . Talks like fortune teller is cheap without facts and figures or we say "CKLPS "

invest malaysia and growing rich , Actually the supermx prices during Jan till March 2020 was only 1.40 to 1.50 . If you invest 10k units during this time , your cost is only 15k . Assuming now at last week closing of 3.92 , your investment is worth 20x 3.92 or rm 78.4 k . IF you add the dividend of rm 3,360 , your total is worth rm 81.76 k or 5.45 x of your investment . This is a huge return within less than 18 months .

THis forum brought up an interesting controvery between buy sell , buy sell versus hold long term . As usual , talk without substance or without back up by figures is not convincing . Let me share with you the final outcome of two investors called A and B and C.

A who put 10 k in Topglove from the very beginning in 2001 and keep until today . Based on Topglove last presentation during the peak , its share price has gone up 380x . With today price , it is about 215x . A's investment becomes 10 x 215 = 2.15 millions . With the dividend of 322 k this year he will be receiving, A's total investment will be worth RM 2.472 million.

B believe in buy and sell and buy and sell . Assuming he also initially invested 10k in Topglove at the very beginning like A and
sell once there is some profit. Assuming A is so good in buy and sell that he make 20 % for every year for each buy and sell . For 20 years , his 10 k investment would become 383 k only .After deducting the commissions he need to pay , his investment is worth less than 383k .
A is 6.4 x better off than B . That is assuming everytime B make 20 % every year with his short term trading. I had never seen in my life bank unit trusts in Malaysia can give me 20 % compounded return in any trust despite having the best buy and sell traders. I would have put all my money to a unit trust if it can give me 15 % CAGR not to mention 20 % .
IF a trader do not believe in stock fundamentals and purely look at chart , he may not be so lucky . B would have traded in other lousy stocks which he may not be so " chun chun " and make 20 % every year . Never mind , I gave him the benefit of doubt that he only traded Topglove .
THere is another person C who invested 10k in supermx at the very beginning . His investment will be worth RM 1.25 , not as good as Topglove . With total dividends he is expected to receive this year assuming 8 % dividend , his investment is estimated to be worth 1.35 millions . THis amount is still more than B 's return .
A and C behave like the founders of the top 4 glove makers who make it to the top 20 richest men in Malaysia . They hold and never sell . THe only difference between A and C is both of them invested with much smaller amount than the founders . The rate of return is the same . There are many who had invested 50k, 100k, 300k, 500k at the very beginning . Today they can retired comfortably with the dividends whereas the one who buy and sell still need to earn a living by buy sell, buy sell, buy sell .

In real life , if you want to invest for long term , always look at the fundamentals so that you wont buy at the peak of companies with poor growth record , low margin, bad cash flow and irregular earning records . Enter at the time with attractive PE ( less than 10 if possible ) which gives you a good margin of safety . Nobody can tell the future including the super smart naysayers who talk without facts like a Hokkein saying " CKLPS". Anybody can bet wrongly including Warren Buffet .

When you think you have made a mistake , just cut loss and sell . At the end of the day , it is your own judgement .

invesr malaysia, at today price of 4 after split, the multiple is 5x if bought at 1.6 last year . Yes. At rm 8 or more during the end of last year , the multiple would have been more than 10 x. I was not in supermx forum then.

FairTalk, this is an open forum. There are always different views and we should respect different views rather than keep humiliating , sneering and even using ABUSIVE words to put down others. They just cant accept those who investors who had been investing supermx since day one or a few years ago or even at the low if 4 plus. They always think they are smarter.
Take another example, I invested 100k units at about rm 1.20 in 2008 and sold at 6 plus in 2010 after the H1N1 pandemic which started in 2009. I thought I was smart but when I looked back I should have kept them. The 100k would have become 400k units with two 1 to 1.share splits without including the dividend plus the Treasury shares given as dividend. At rm 4.00 , the total worth would have been rm 1.6 millions. This gives a CAGR of about 24 %.
The 13 sen.dividend would have been 52k which is more than 40 % of my initial investment.
Even with price battered down 67 % from the peak, supermx share prices had grown 125 X since its initial listing.

This is supermx forum. If I am not a supermx investor why should I spend time here ? Dont tell me I want to waste my time to talk bad about supermx . Silly isnt it ?
As I said many times , the mentality of investors vs gamblers are very different . Both have different views . Both are at different frequencies .
For example, those investors who bought 2 lots of topglove in 2001 at RM 5400 would have his share values skyrocketed to about 1.5 millions today . THe dividend yield is about 15 % this year .His dividend will be about RM 225 k . THis is 40x of his investment in 2001 .
Another person who bought 2 lots of topglove after the 2003 Sars epidemic have to pay 3 x more because the price has gone up 3x . Many of his friends advise him not to buy because the price has gone up 3x already . He was stubborn and refuse to listen to his friend advice and paid RM 16200 for the two lots . This year he will receive the RM 225k dividend like the one who bought at 1/3 his purchase price . Even though he bought " expensive " , the dividend is still 225/16.4 = 13.7 x of what he invested . Both can retired comfortably now with just 5.4 k and 16.2 k investment 17 and 20 years ago .
The amount of dividend a company can pay depends on the earnings of the company not its share price . The two investors do not need to look at the daily prices of topglove stocks at all .
THe friends who advise him is still having to do day tradings to earn the meagre incomes everday and jump to every forums to act like " samaritans " and continue to give their " advice " by looking at the stock prices .
Who is smarter ?

April 2021 shipment grow 4.75 % mom compared with march. Shipments grow 7 and 11 % for.US and UK despite their infection rate came down drastically in April.


https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bursainvestments/2021-06-04-story-h1566047263-Rubber_Glove_Exports_Rise_Additional_4_75_M_o_M_238_Y_o_Y_in_April.jsp

myinvestor , Stanley used to be very vocal 7 years ago and before . He is always on the press talking about gloves future and so on. Supermx gave the best briefing slides dated 9th August 2020.It has a lot of details about the company . After that , supermx stayed very low profile despite making 790 millions , 1.059 billions and 1.005 billions in the subsequent qtrs . Supermx then announced investment in US and then Stanley announced buying condo in Florida .
In my opinion , these moves has to do with the CBP action on Topglove . The super profits of glove companies attracted a lot of attentions from the US . Supermx is the 2nd most profitable glove companies after topglove in terms of absolute Dollars and margins . The third is Harta followed by Kossan. Till today Topglove 's CBP issue is still not resolved after almost a year despite spending more than 100 millions and resolved all the 11 items . You just cant rule out the collaboration of some institutions with the US government on the CBP actions . WE just need to wait for the dust to settle first . I think it will be very soon after US has 70 % of its populations vaccinated with 2 doses . The most important is the company continue to expand, make good profits ,increase its cash piles and pay good dividends .It is a matter of time peoples will discover the value of the company.