Moneymakers, please read the.whole article properly. The American expert said " Pls take this delta variant seriously . It is by far the most transmissive variant todate . It transmit much.much faster . It is also more severe and led to more hospitalization ".
The above statements was from.the expert not from me. Isnt the above sound scary?
The worst is what you are trying to.misled. You.are trying to.tell that getting infected after.AZ.vaccination.is ok beccause it wont you could be asymtomatic or with mild.symptoms. This misled is even.more dangerous.as those infected after.vaccination.can.still.infect others who are either vaccinated or not vaccinated..
Moneymakers, you.have the habit of simply give you comment without basis.

Moneymakers, dont treat every message as fear mongers. Many of us has no choice but to choose AZ vaccines recently. The warning by the American expert that those with one dose AZ had better know that with the efficacy is only 33 %. It will.take another 3 months for second dose. That also 60 % efficacy. Do not assume that after vaccination, they can simply go to big crowds freely without following sop and protection.
Moneymakers, dont try to misled by giving your own opinions without facts. Peoples who read your message tends to think they are safe with AZ vaccination when they are actually not.

The delta variants are scary.

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/us-doctor-says-astrazeneca-vaccine-only-33-60-effective-against-delta-variant-why-it-matters-in-india-1817517-2021-06-21

Invest malaysia, no more averaging down after the last averaging at rm 3.60 . A big chunk of what I made from supermx and topglove in 2020 is back in supermx . Need to keep some cash and observe later. Sentiment on gloves are very bad . Need to wait for the dust to settle down. Nett nett , I am still okay because I bought very low in 2019 and June 2020 and made good profits after selling in August and November last year. I regretted for not selling in late April and early May this year . No point grumbling . Need to look forward . The fundamentals still looks good. Unfortunately, IB s cannot see the potentials of supermx distribution profits which make up 35 % of supermx total profits. They treat supermx as the same as other glove makers who make only mfg profits.

Supermx also spent 45 million on RE Solar to reduce electricity on its mfg .

Wow. another record profits by Comfort . QOQ PAT 59 % increase due to higher ASP . Glove consumption will increase moving forward. Management is positive with gloves outlook. These are the words from Comfort management.

Invest malaysia, As stock investor, we must know both TA and FA . Last Friday candlestick was an inverted hammer with long wick 。This provide a.sign .I am waiting for 3 white soldiers .
Fundamentally , supermx is very strong. My fundamental worst case scenario provide confidence for me .

If you take the starting point from.August 2020 at the peak of rm 11.50 , there were a total of 5 rebounds . Three rebounds with more than rm 2 and 2 smaller rebounds with rm 1. On average there was 1 rebound.for every 2 months. The last rebound was beginning of April 2021. The next rebound is imminent .

Supermx is recession and pandemic proof . Supermx already made 3.32 billions in the last 5 qtrs and expected to make another few billions by the end of this year. Supermx market cap was 1.9 billion in 2019. Its 2 years earning is already 3x of 2019 total.market cap .
The total earnings from 2020 until 2022 is expected to be 4 to 5 x of supermx 2019 market cap.

rr88, during the peaks , the more than 10 IB s were more bullish with ridiculous tgt prices . They openly published their reports . Why dont you screw them ?

rr88, you keep blaming OTB. Are you a subscriber ? He started asking his subscribers to buy at rm 3.60 ( 1.80 equivalent after split ) He did asked his subscribers to take profits during the peaks . Those who took profits would have made a few x . If you are not his subscribers , why keep blaming him ? You are famous for shorting many counters from Dayang to many other counters even in uptrends.

Stock investment is not for the faint hearted. You can feel very lonely when the price go down south with IB downgrade its tgt prices. I just want to share my lonely experience on my Dayang investment and how the price can spring back from the extreme low within a few months. Fortunately, at that time there was no naysayers who stepped and humiliate on us while we were lonely.

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Nov 22, 2019 7:47 PM | Report Abuse

teoct, nice to hear from you too. It still remain vivid in my memory that when dayang prices went down south to less than 90 s , we still hold on to our belief that dayang is worth much more than.that. It was lonely then with few participation in the forum. I.had sold all my.dayang shares a month ago when it reach more than 2.00. I switch to mfcb warrant and jaks which has offered quite good return.within a month. With such good q3 result which is slightly above my expectation , I may buy back some next week. I still believe.dayang has great potential to reach higher in.view of its recent restructuring ,its good results plus potentual huge orderbook .Enjoy your champagne and wine this weekend.

I also bought supermx again in June 2020. Supermx is no stranger to me. It is a 100 bagger since IPO.




SUPERMAX CORP BHD

Jul 3, 2020 6:30 PM | Report Abuse

probability, I bought both topglove.and.supermx because of OTB recommendation too. OTB.is good in both.TA and FA.


Stock: [SUPERMX]: SUPERMAX CORP BHD

Jul 3, 2020 6:25 PM | Report Abuse

probability, glad to see u in this glove forum

Besides my initial investments in supermx in 2008 and then sold in 2010 making 5x return , I had also bought supermx
again in 2019 which I had paper losses on 20th Dec 2019.


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Dec 20, 2019 10:21 AM | Report Abuse

mmk79, my 2019 return year todate is 26 % . I have losses in other stocks like Supermx, Tongher ,CIMB which pull down my return .


Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD

Dec 20, 2019 9:24 AM | Report Abuse

Ricky and Jilohuat, thanks for the encouragemrnts. My intention of sharing is to let peoples know the wonders of compounding and how a reasonable and realistic tgt return of mere 18 to 20% per year can skyrocket your initial investment to an astronomical numbers . Many are able to do it and we are not short of such stocks which generate more than 18% annually. Public bank, the 4 top glove makers and the semiconductors counters are good examples of multibaggers within 15 to 20 years. Public.Bank generate a return of 19% from1967 to 2013. If you had invested one lot of public bank in 1967 and continue to subscribe to all its right issues, the one lot investment plus all the dividends would have made you a millionaire within 40years.

Stockwin, the Current MCO may affect some shipments. Looking at the actual shipments of Topglove , Harta and supermx for the last qtr , shipments had been lower than end of last year. Topglove , Harta and supermx utilizations were between 70 to 80 %. You can use the same formula to calculate earning but use a lower utilization like 80 % . I expect this qtr the malaysian glove makers will be under.supply again. It is better you do it yourself to get the earning.

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Pjseow, reading through your earlier projections, do you project the Qtr ended 30.6.2021 PAT to be at least RM1 Billion?
19/06/2021 4:35 PM

Threekingdoms , thks ams noted. I think you meant a Disclaimer .

elbrutus bro , thks and noted.

CITADEL, are you blind ? didnt you read what I posted in the last 2.months about the fundamentals of supermx ? Everyone knows supermx prices has come down from the high of rm 12 in OCT 2020 till 3.77 yesterday with a few technical rebounds in.between. The chart is readily available. Everyone is also anticipating another rebound next week which I mentioned yesterday? You dont agree ?

CITADEL, I was just.stating.the facts with historical records which was not promotion. Which sentence was notorius?

citadel9999 or CITADEL, I can pick up at least 10 messages you humiliate and.make fun.of me. You want me to show you the messages ?

CITADEL , Why you care so much of when I bought and when I sold ? Yes ,I bought supermx in 2008, 2013 , 2019 , 2020 and 2021. I also sold them when it hit my tgt. Unlike you, I dont go around name calling and humiliate others.

CITADEL, Isnt supermx last qtr nett profit at 1.080 billions ( icluding the 75 millions donation to government ). If not because of loss of 330 millions revenue due to plant shutdown , the profit.would have been 1.268 billions. What sweet.talk ?


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Apr 14, 2021 1:09 PM | Report Abuse

Unlike other glove companies, Supermx glove business comprises the ex factory to distributors business plus its own.OBM.distributor business. This OBM business account for additional 40 to 50 % of its ex profits from.factory sales . Based on.kenanga estimated ASP of US 70 per 1000 ex factory price, we can expect.the coming qtr profit to be around 1.1 to 1.2 billions.

ALL THE SWEET TALK TO LURE OTHERS BUYING UP SHARES GOOD JOB!!!

CITADEL, Pls dont stood so low lah. I do not take part in 2021 stock pick competition . I took part only in 2020. You purposely picked up my following message without putting the date which was in.Dec 2019 . Well , the readers can.verify whether I took part in 2021 stock.pick competition or not . Everyone can check whether my name is there or not


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Tan KW, my picks are as follows.

1. MFCB 30%
2. JAKS 30%
3. MKH 15%
4. DAYANG 15%
5. DPHARMA 10%

AND THIS IS YOUR 2021 STOCK COMPETITION , U BUY DPHARMA BUT NOW U HEAVY IN GLOVES??? DIDNT SEE U IN SUPERMX AT LOW BUT SAW UR COMMENT AFTER IT SURGE VERY HIGH, SUSPICIOUS DIDNT?

Toneefa, well said . These 2 fellows like to build their happiness on others misfortunes . Their bad thoughts reflect their poor upbringings and lack of proper parental guidance. I feel sad for both of them.

Imvest malaysia, FA is important. My worst case scenario.analysis is FA not TA. It serves as a check and comparison on current price .

Gloveoff and citadel , go and worry about covering your shorting first . Dont have to worry for me lah. I have been.collecting at below 3.8 and my average is very near 4 now. Today.has a strong reversal.signal . The value of my worst case scenario provide good margin of safety at current price .

By looking at the 6 months charts , if history were to repeat , there will be a spike in. supermx prices next week. The height of this technical rebound may not be as high as the last one in April which lasted 3 weeks. In the last rebound., both local and foreign funds were net buyers while retailers were net sellers. Stock Trends behave like waves ( Elliot waves as some name it ) never on straight lines. Even if the next high.is between 5.00 to 5.50 which is below the last high of 6.50 , it offers opportunity for those who bought at above 5 to let go . As for those who bought below 4 , you can make double digits returns . Consult your TA gurus for better advice.

Glovefinish, pls tell us which fund manager stated that market price of rm 3.6 reflect its post pandemic true value? How does the fund manager derive this number?


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Thus if supermx current market price around $3.6x reflects its post-pandemic true value according to some funds managers view, even later it drops further down and then rebounds from its bottom mostly would go up back to its fair value as reflected by current market price as now $3.6x only.

Quote from Romance of the Three Kingdoms.
" 司马昭之心，路人皆知"。 si ma zhao zhi xin , lu ren jie zhi meaning everyone know the heart of si ma zhao.

What is basic rights of humans ? Based on Maslow 's hierachy of human needs .

First level Needs :


1. THe Rights to have food on the table
The Chinese has the freedom to choose whatever foods they want to take
.THey are hundreds or thousands of cuisines and dishes to choose from
The richer ones can have Australian lobsters , beef ,wines , Musang
King etc.
2. The Rights to have clothings to protect from the cold
The Chinese has the freedom to wear whatever clothings they wish depending on their wealth and capability . THe rich can choose to wear the branded from other countries . During autumn and winter seasons , such clothings are available in many stores big and small .

3. The Rights to have own housing
New housings are everywhere . The Chinese can choose what to buy , where to stay and how many units to buy depending on their affordability . THe richer ones can even buy property in other countries .

4. The Rights to have clean water and electricity supply , sewerage system and basic infrastructure like public transports , roads , bridges etc
THe last 30 years has seen tremendous improvements in infrastructure developments in China where the Chinese enjoy .


Second Level Needs or Wants

1. THe Rights to have Leisures

THe Chinese has the rights and freedom to travel anywhere they like within the country for holidays . The richer ones can travel overseas and buy designer bags , clothings etc .

2. THe Rights to own cars , TVs , Refrigerators , Handsets etc
THese are wants not needs . Every Chinese citizens has the rights to buy these items depending on their affordability

3. The Rights to study at Various colleges and Universities
THe Chinese also has the freedom to choose which Universities to study provided they are qualified to enter .

THird Level Needs

1. THe Right to have own religious beliefs .

I think the CHinese have the freedom to their own beliefs but not the Falungong which is banned .

2. Freedom to express

I think the Chinese have the freedom to express themselves through Wechat , Tiktok and other social media like Youtubes ( must jump across the wall ) but restricted on criticising on its leaders .

3. Freedom to form own company and organizations subject to the rules of the country .

4. Freedom to Choose own representatives at district or village levels .
5. Rights to have equal treatments
Men and Women have equal rights . Majority and Minority have equal rights . I think the minority have some special priviledges in certain areas like entrance to universities and getting certain licences .

The above basically summarise the Human Rights of Chinese in China .
These rights serve the needs of the majority who just want to enjoy a better lifes . Based on a survey by Harvard University , about 85 percent of Chinese citizens are happy with the government and the direction of the government to further improve the lifes of its peoples .

Moneymakers, you are fond of plucking numbers from the air without any basis. You said that JPM projected 670 millions annual profits for TG. If you divide 670 millions with 8200 millions TG total number of shares , its eps is 8.2 sen. With tgt price by JPM of rm 3.50 , JPM.assign a PE of 43 which is higher than.historical PE.
How do you derive supermx earning. of 500 millions per year and on.what basis you give PE of 5 to 10 which is lower than its hiatorical PE of 15 to 18.

Glovefinish, do you know what are the rules on GO and MO ? Pls read first . I have gone through a few stocks with such offers . I know how it works. Minority share holders may not agree with the offer price if it is too low or unreasonable.. In 2007 , Aberdeen rejected the offered price of MOX from major shareholders and counter offered with a few ringgit higher. Finally the major shareholder agreed with the higher price, then all other minority share holders also had the same offer . To have a mandatory offer the major shareholder must obtained 90 % of total company.shares. To get that , the major shareholders must keep raising the prices in the market so that more and public or minority shareholders are willing to let go their shares. This will drive up the share prices.

Invest malaysia , Supermx 48 billions capacity is 100 % in Malaysia . Where did you get the information that supermx will manufacture gloves in US ? Supermx did not commit any capacity in US . IT just said they will set up a plant . It could be a plant with mainly warehouse plus small production line of one or 2 billions pcs per year . Besides , Supermx has also got a tax credit of US 482 billions from Florida and still looking for better tax credit terms from other states before making a final decision on which state the plant will be at .

Observatory, Supermx had got rid of the dealers for more than a year already and the big profits made is also proven without the dealers .The
total profit from distribution for the last 4 qtrs was more than a billion. THe doubt you have is whether come post pandemic whether Supermx need to ask the dealers to come back and let them mark up US 30 again . I find it odd after 3 to 4 years of making a few billions by selling direct to key customers , established relationships and sign contracts with them without the dealers , then suddenly invite them back after pandemic and allow them to mark up US 30 either by sacrificing supermx themselves or let the mark up price to the final customers .
ANyway , double confirmation with Supermx management during AGM will be good .

Observatory, as I mentioned in.my earlier message , supermx management got rid of middlemen since March 2020. During.pre pandemic, as.shown.in.bar.chart 2 of the briefing.slides on page 13, there was a dealer in.supermx direct distribution . This dealer mark up US 30 and sell to the final.customer . After March.2020 , the dealer was removed. I assumed this marked up will go to supermx distributor as additional profit when.supermx sell direct to the final customers without the dealers in future.

As I mentioned in my earlier messages , there is no point worrying about ASP erosion which is already known 9 months ago when the market started pricing in with dropping to more than 60 % . As for supermx it has dropped 70 % .
Many analysts and investors are comparing prices with pre pandemic prices but do not have real numbers about estimated earnings post pandemic .
In my few previous messages , I have some worst case scenaario estiminations about supermx earning post pandemic . After getting some inputs from other investors or potential investors , I have made some adjustments on my worst case scenario as follows .

Capacity : 48 billions pa.( double pre pandemic capacity )
Utilization : 70 % ( lower than pre pandemic )
Manufacturing Nitrile ASP : US 24 per 1000 ( 5 to 10 % higher than pre pandemic )
Manufacturing Latexx ASP : US 19 per 1000 ( about 5 % higher than pre pandemic )
Manufacturing Nett Margin : 8 % ( about the same as pre pandemic )

Distribution ASP : US 60 ( lower than Pre pandemic of about US 80 to 90 )
Distribution net margin : 25 %

OEM % : Back to 30 %
Supermx Own distribution : 40 %
Independent Distribution : 30 %

Total Nett PRofits = 1245 millions per year (based on 40 % supermx own distribution .
Overall NEtt margin = 23.75 % ( lower than management guidance of 30 to 40 %)

The 1245 millions is 11.86 X of 2019 total annual earning of 105 millions .
THe current market price of 3.72 is 5.3x of pre pandemic price .

I Welcome constructive and professional comments .

Observatory, thank you . I got it .

Observatory, May I know how you got the number of 15.6 billions shipment in last qtr topglove shipment . Based on the QR report, the volume drop only 4 -% QOQ . ASP drop 16 %. If you take a yearly capacity of 100 billions per year , one qtr should be 25 billions. A loss of 4 % is only 1 billion shipment loss. If the shipment is only 15.6 billions last qtr, the.qoq lost is much more than 4 % and probably at
35 % which is not possible.

papasmurf , yes . our assumptions are not that far fetch .
if we use 40 % distribution margin and 60 billion capacity , the EPS will be very high . Some pessimistic ivestors prefer to be more conservative of not using US 40 per 1000 for Nitrile . US 24 to US 27 is a range many would use for worst case scenario . When capacity reach 60 Billion, utilization rate of 70 to 75 % might be more appropriate as assumptions . Anyway , whatever way we assume, the value of supermx is much higher than the current price . Lets wait for the next quarter financial result and the next AGM where we can ask specifically on the business model plus net margins so that we can have better educated estimate .

Topglove is world number one in glove mfg. It supplied 25 % of world's glove.consumption. It is in big foreign fund radar . The other glove makers market prices will.dance in tandem or in concert with topglove prices. When topglove up, all up.. When it swing left, all follow left . They fly in group like swans moving into the Holland direction.and then make a U turn to the Alps in.Switzerland.
OK. just for the fun of it. good nite to all the genuine glove investors and also the naysayers.

From Calvin.69 in.topglove forum.
Something good must be brewing . One up 68 % while the other up 55 % . Big rise wor . Two world markets eyeing topglove wor.

Top Glove's European ADR also soared 55% yesterday

Something is happening...

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/5OU:GR?sref=YphvZen9
12/06/2021 8:53 PM

Papasmurf , thanks for your sharing with your estimation .

Your assumption of US 40 per 1000 pcs for Nitrile is in line with most IBs assumption during post pandemic . Your assumption of 30 % OEM and 40 % shipment by supermx Distributor is also correct . I miss out this one . Thanks for pointing out .
Your assumption of US 80 distributor price is also closer to the real blended distributor price of supermx during pre pandemic based on Supermx briefing on 9th Aug 2020 .
However your distributor margin seems to be on the low side because the final combined margin is only 19 % when I pluck in your number into my spreadsheet . The management expect a long term nett margin of 30 % to 40 % .
Anyway , your overall assumptions provide a fair numbers . Comparing with 2019 pre pandemic earning of 105 millions , it is 15.5 x .

As for my worst case assumptions , my intention is to show that even Nitrile glove pricing goes back to pre pandemic level , the profit is still many times the profit of prepandemic period .

Thank again for your sharing . Only through sharing in professional manner , we can knows where our assumptions can be re adjusted . More heads is better than one head . I appreciated both you ,observatory and Ben sharing so that we can have a better and more educated estimation which will benefit the i3 participants .

Observatory . Thank you noted . Papasmurf had brought this to my attention in his estimation .

The Topglove transacted volumes in OTC was 540k . Who will want to pay so much higher if not because of some good news ?

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/840551

Haha, james, I like your gorenger become gorengee.

This ADR OTC share price up 68 % is a hot topic in Topglove forum . The Topglove OTC price charts used to follow the malaysia price charts. Something is brewing in US OTC markets on topglove ? Some speculate that CBP will lift the ban soon . US insider news ?

Invest malaysia, For sure I have to be concerned about supermx because I invested in supermx. That s why I spend time researching about supermxbbusiness fundamentals. However , I will not spend time on Genting and talk bad about Genting in Genting forum. I will not spend my valuable time to agitate those Genting retail investors who.may have bought high and got stucked. Why do that ? What merits do you get out of that ? It is like rubbing salts on their wounds. Anyway , I am happy for you who bought low for Genting .

invest malaysia , there are many companies in Bursa with similar IPO about 20 years which give superb return although havent reach 10b market cap . Vitrox, Penta, Inari , MFCB are some of the examples .The most important is the annual rate of return or CAGR the company can provide and enter at REASONABLE price because I can never enter at the right price and exit at the right price also . MFCB is the only one which I kept for many years . For the rest , I exit when it hit 2x . I am not so greedy . 18 % CAGR is enough already .

Glovefinish , I thought both of us agree to respect each other opinions . WHy you worry so much of our investment ? Win or lose , we take responsibility of our own judgement .Why you worry so much for us ?
To quote a Chinese saying :

The emperor is not " Kan Chong " , why Eunuch is so Kang Chong ?

Observatory , I did not attend the last AGM but will certainly do so in the coming AGM . I will ask about 10 questions concerning dividend policy , share buy backs , distribution of Treasury shares , sustainability of its new business models and nett margins etc . For medium and long term investments , such information is very important to the investors . Hope to see you there .