Production data for last Q and upcoming Q. CPO increase 71% while log increase by 5%


Month CPO logs
Q1'19 2019 Sept 28020 21228
2019 Aug 28793 38229
2019 July 25510 30250
Total 82323 89707

Q4'18 2019 June 18387 16337
2019 May 16578 32253
2019 Apr 13096 34948
Total 48061 83538

the short term has cross the 200MA long term line as well and it has formed a golden cross. Also the 200MA line is moving upward. Chart wise beautiful. I think it is on a bullish trend.

i guess the solid fundamental is as what Wilson describes. Their tress has matured and now is at the peak of it output. So now the only thing left to spark the share price to fly like a rocket is the CPO price. So if CPO price can continue to go up, Jtiasa just waits to collect money.

Yeap.....sui sui. Tomorrow continue uptrend as I think it form at golden cross at the 200ma. meaning, market also strat to bullish on jtiasa long term.

CPO price has also increased. The average for July-sept is Rm2060. Oct is 2200 and current it is above 2450. Hope it maintained above this level but below 2500. Else, CPO shoot to 2800 straight bcoz trade above 2500 need to pay windfall tax. Anyway, overall the CPO price has rebound + Jtiasa production has increased by 70%. It will definitely report a more favorable result for Oct-Nov'19 (2Q).

dun see any TA coverage but it looks like the support is at 1.98. Chart shows downtrending but also oversold. So i guess it will consolidate around this area. APM only has about 10M unit to sell. I doubt they will exit completely. So room to fall lower is not high but this is my opinion. If upcoming QR, management announced a better dividend or slight increase in profit and revenue, it will rebound.

by today if can stay above 56c, i think it will formed a golden cross on the 200ma line. Meaning it has broken the long term bullish line....ya....go go .....Jtiasa

The technical chart shows that it is on an uptrend. It has broken the midterm line and closing the gap in the long term line. If the price can stays above 56c, it will cross a 200ma line. MACD and rsi shows there is a good momentum.

The coming QR might report a better result compared to last Q (Q4). The CPO production increased by 70% compared to Q4 while logging production increased by 5%. Last Q4 result was so bad because it has included a 1 off taxation of 64M. The operating cost + finance cost is only -26million but management has insert a tax of 64M and causes the eps to be -9.42 instead of only -2.3. Of course this is not a great company but upcoming quarter should report small losses or maybe breakeven or mayb small gain. Unable to determine the value of this company just hoping it can go on a recovery road so that it will start reporting +ve eps and then we can value how much this company worth.

I don't work in apm. So i need to mk certain guesses and assumption. U hv accurate numbers? Why dun share with all of us since mine us only guesses.

Thanks Nepo. Now only i remember i read in the AR that they dispose the lost making company in 2018.

Big impairment ahead??

From THEEDGE
"To recap in 2008, Bursa Malaysia-listed Malaysian Bulk Carriers Bhd (Maybulk) paid US6.50 per share or a total of US$221 million to by 34 million shares in POSH"

wahh....ncm also on board? bought truckload of it??....lol....

I'm not good at timing the market. No such skill. So just nd to buy whenever comfortable with the price and hold on to it. Did the same with harta. Epf was selling n bought some and continue to average down. I think hold already for 6 months+ and finally it move abit. Hv 15% profit. At my age, not ambitious. 10% a year is good enuf...lol...

Ncm, APM is in automotive sector manufacturing car parts. They hv 4 segment.
1. Electrical and heat xchange. This segment losing money. 5%
2. Suspension. Losing money as well. Same as 1st.
3. Interior n plastic. Making money. Profit margin about 25%. Revenue also increase double digit.
4. marketing. Making small profit by selling apm parts.

1&2 lose money due to high raw material cost ie: steel but steel price has dropped to all yr low now. Also plastic resin has dropped 25%. So i guess this will helped apm. The above is just wht i remember from the AR n QR. U might want to cross check. But i notice most of the car manufacture in malaysia is his client.

Nepo, accumulate below 2? I park at 2.00 for many days but cannot get. Then increase 2.01, 2.02, 2.03....until manage to get some at certain price. The last friday closing of 2.00 is not accurate coz seller all park at 2.08. anyway, if drop more, then i will accumulate alittle more.

The only changes is the margin has been shrinking. From the QR, it has said due to the raw material ie; steel. I check the current steel price n it has drop to all yr low. It might not directly benefit coming Q because they sure hv some old stk in the inventory bit it will somehow benefit next Q. Also the interior n plastic division has been on double digit growth n profit. With plastic raw material on decline, it should benefit them more. Finally it us the qty of car sales. The more car sold, the better revenue and profit. I do not work in automotive industry but car company foresee better sales ahead and company like jhm n d&o also forecast better revenue. Meaning in consensus, the industry see a gd prospect next yr in automotive industry. Finally, it will be a bonus if bank negara announce rate cut next week. automotive industry should benefit. I hv split my fund to huy all the way to 1.50. just wondering is the management generous enuf to share the cash....lol

Epf has been constantly disposing the shares but u look at the qty, it is so little. Furthermore, the balance epf has is only 10m shares which is about rm20mil. I doubt if epf dispose all will hv a big impact on apm. Epf dispose for some other fund to collect?? I dunno. I just tikam tikam oni...lol.....
But volume is really super low la

No idea but then ppl go public listed so that they can create more wealth for their company n of course for themselves. It is just too bad that investor don't see value in apm. Apm business is not a great business but it still decent as it still earning profit and it is backed with valuable asset n cash. I won't touch if the company is asset rich but losing money. In apm case, asset rice, decent profit, selling below value in my opinion. Just see the retained earning they accumulated all this years.

dunno....but if the company has a net cash of 1.50 and the price drop to 1.50, if i hv 300M, i go buy the entire company and get back my 300M. Then i sell all asset at 50%......Still pocket 100M+.....LOL

if look at APM client list, not only proton and perodua but most of the car brand in malaysia somehow is APM client. Again, like I mentioned, APM might not have a bombastic growth or profit but the current price is undervalued vs the asset they have. With the fall of steel and synthetic rubber price, i guess they will show a better profit margin and will consider as a decent profit. I was wondering how low can it go. At most will be 1.50 and at that price, u get back 1.50 cash.

Also, the others parts supplier such as D&O, pecca and JHM are all trading at a much higher PE. They anticipate better car sales. So it should benefit APM as wll.....no?

APM volume is super low. After reading suntze comment, i think i do agree with her or is it a him. But for me, I would look at APM differently. It will not be a growth or explosive stock but i think it will be a stable and valued stock. Why?.....my reasoning as below

1. It is a net cash company. The cash alone is RM1.50 per lot
"The Group’s financial position remains relatively healthy with a net cash position (=cash and cash equivalent + other investment – bank borrowing) of RM296.3 million.

2. It is full of valuable property. The factory alone in sri kembangan (2unit = RM100M) and Port Klang (3 unit = RM110) is about 220M. This is equal to RM1/lot. Of course APM will not be able to sell at current market price. Lets says APM sell at 50% discount. Anyone buyer?

With above 2 reasons, the cash and property already equal to current share price you paid. The rest of the asset is free.

3. Of course the company will not share the above with the minority share holder. So lets look into the business. APM has 4 business segment. Suspension, Interior & Plastics, Electrical & Heat Exchange and Marketing. The interior and plastics is making a double digit revenue growth (34.5%) and PBT (99%) and it contribute to 65% of company revenue. The 2nd is marketing which contribute 15% of company revenue and have profit margin of single digit. The suspension and electrical and heat exchange reported some marginal losses last few Q. Reason given was increase of the raw material prices which is steel. But steel price has drop and it is at all year low price. Furthermore,, it plasstic raw material whis is the EDPM has also dropped. This will give more profit margin in the interior & plastics segment. I foresee the profit margin will increase in next 2 Q.

4. APM dividend as been generous all this years. At least 5%. Despite low profit margin, they earned enough to distribute margin and have leftover to put into the piggy bank.

5. MBMR expected another record sales for their best seller of MYvi and Arus and UMW has also reported they foresee good car sales and they expect 2019 will be a good year.

With the above rationale, is anyone interested???hehe....no buy or sell call. Just doing some survey.......

Sigh.....saw it drop down to 5.90 but then when key in to buy, it rebounded. No chance to get any.

Strong support at Rm6 but how long will this wall hold?once break rm6, it will be a mini waterfall??/

As of 31st August 2019, they have secured 1.7B project. Meaning it will last them 12 to 15 months. Base on historical data, their profit margin is about 12-15%. Therefore, the upcoming annual eps is about 30c. At the current price. PE is 8. Not expensive but not undervalue either because the most worrying part is the amount of project that they have is not huge and the replenishment is slow.

I'm waiting at Rm6.50.....wake me if it kiss that TP.......lol

Pchem also got produce PP raw material.....meaning got competition.....and more supply in PP section.....

will tomorrow break 1700? if tomorrow BDI rate cross 1700 while KLCI close, then monday will be interesting....

BDI 1757??....sure ah??? can't get the latest quote. Still showing 1803......
really like waterfall leh.....no pit stop 1.....
will maybulk break 60c today??.....calvin, wht say u?

Lotte Chemical building another petrochemical plant in indonesia. The market is already on an oversupply mode and more coming online. This is just great.

Godfather issue 2 article back to back.....hmmmm.....

Then let see if break 1800 got panic sell or not.......

Dropby here to see what's cooking after seeing the price dop to the lowest......
U sure bjcorp have shares in vietlot ah? In annual report got mentioned? Also, u all no go ask ur calvin koko to buy more to support the price?......lol....now is great bargain leh since it drop more than 50% from his buy call at 52c.

Telecommunication is very capital intensive. Whenever there is a technology change or upgrade, need to spend alot of money to purchase new equipment and install. That is why nowsday big telecommunication company outsource or rather rent to tower so that they minimise their capex. OCK has been aggressively borrowing money to expand their business ie; to own more tower. If not mistaken, 2018, they are paying 20+M in interest. While rental fee from telco is not fix but interest occur on borrowing is fix regardless the tower is in use o not. Again, with the coming 5G, will they borrow more money to install 5G equipment to make their tower 5G capable. Just hope thy are not over leveraging.

WRP asia also produce nitirle gloves. US blocked imports from this company, their customer have no choice and look for alternative. So go to Harta, kossan????? I dun think volume is as huge as harta or kossan but at least help to take up the supply from them. Might be good for Harta then....

LOL.....gooshen.....ada read new ah? It is WRP Asia and not Harta. Anyway, i still waiting for your prediction of RM4. I thought this time ho seh liao. With such news, can help your half pass 6 prediction. So that why i check out loh and thought can buy again at Rm4ma..... Mana tau, only drop that few cent. Sooooo far from your rm4 prediction. Anyway, i check in back to Hotel Harta again le....and earn some mcd meal.....lol

breaking 1800 very soon. I wonder at wht level of bdi will maybulk break 60c. 1700?? 1600??

i guess each lot, i untung RM10 today.....lol.......enuf for big McD feast this coming weekend....

yaloh....not harta la......sigh!!!...i go sell at 5.20.....but luckily now manage to buy back all at 5.16 & 5.17.......lol

Disposable rubber gloves produced in Malaysia by WRP Asia Pacific Sdn. Bhd.; produced with forced labor.

Like that better check out 1st le.....see this small tremor cause how much damage to Harta Hotel

Clear stk now. Dun play play le.....US purchase qty is considered huge oh.....if freeze 1 month also quite big impact le.

Diarrhoea seems like slowing down......

Between Hotel Harta and Hotel KESM, i check in hotel Harta le. Because i know i can check out anytime. What about your hotel kesm??....yesterday mini earthquake ah? Make sure it didn't scare u until face green green oh.....lol

Gooshen, at least if u wan sell hibicus, can sell any time. Want sell your KESM, wait let me check today volume ah.....wah lau, morning till now only 10lot??? if u sell all your holding, immediately gap down to 6.50 oh....

Last time when i did a rough estimate, Maybulk will make about 2c if it is above 2000. But now broken below 2k, i'm not sure what is the breakeven point for maybulk. It has been losing for so many Q and therefore really hard to estimate. I will wait for the coming Q to see how much profit maybulk made. The coming QR will be profitable. If still negative, then the management should all be fired la. Y? BDI rebound also cannot make money what more when BDI drop.

ChickenLord article indeed gives alot of insight into the company but on his argument on how to company going to pare down the long term loan is by converting the warrant and raise 45M. If management decided to do so, it will dilute the share by 20%. Meaning earning will also be diluted??? but it will somehow save some on the interest la...

Wow....continue to discuss on weekend ah? U all dun be so pessimistic la. U r indirectly affecting xcellent Gooshen. He has been looking at the screen over the weekend despite market close and face a'dy green green. KESM is currently having a fade drop and fake consolidation. It has chance to rebound to 8 and possible 9 in short term and go back to RM 20 in long term for Gooshen to be released from being trap.

38c????.....if drop below 38c, it almost 50% leh. Then want to recover back to current price, almost 100% leh. Siao ah???....but best is to ask calvin as he 1st introduces this stk ma.

If dun raise fund thru market, then raise fund thru where? Cannot be borrowing from bank to pare down debt from bank right? Another RI coming???

"Ye Zuohao believes that the cost of raising funds through the market is higher than that of banks.
Executive Chairman Ye Zhihong intends to wait for the company's earnings to rise, before considering raising funds to reduce debt."

Aiyo ah ma, aiyo ah pa....what happen? Like offer now 60c also dun dare to take le. Luckily i off board already. I think now is selling to holland with no return in near term. Sigh!!!.....

Looks like selling down after Agm leh......apa sudah jadi oh.....huge volume seen especially afternoon session