Hevea chart shows bullish cup & handle formation. Price should go up!

You see KPS falling, which shouldn't be since they have accepted the deal, pending shareholders' approval - which should be a done deal since KDEB is the majority shareholder. So kali's words is taken with a pinch of salt since the market does not like uncertainty! Watch for the fed's offer which is the final certainty!

Under fed consitution, Puncak and Gamuda will have to be 'adequately' compensated; otherwise investors will flee the country.

@JayC. No they mean RM6.3B to RM6.7B.

@stkoay. I am not always correct like everyone else; and I don't need to be always correct; just give my views in good faith. That's all. Rafizi and Tony Pua is gunning for RM1B lower. So my bet is that they have until 23rd Mar to close deal!

Also if we read between the lines - NSC may declare a water emergency if water deal not done quickly - I can see another possible scenario: Fed will have to come up with additional billions to quickly close deal. The billions can be politically justified due to likely water emergency and the compensation being for the 'benefit of the people'.

@digiuser016. yeah, I read. But they don't have 3 months' grace. At least kali don't have. Deadline to watch is still 23rd Mar.

@stkoay. Did you buy into Hapseng? you would be in the money by now if you have bought.

@stkoay. No drag and break. If kali and fed don't move fast, check-mate after 23 Mar for kali! Both kali and fed must deal by then. Puncak and Gamuda know this. Their powerful connections ensure that they are safe! Watch out for when permit for Langat2 and LRAL2 issued. For kali, no money means no honey! Therefore my bet is that fed will deal with sweeteners.

Looks like I am not the only one to suspect kali. See link:

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2014/03/13/Concessionaires-doubt-invocation-of-Wasia-has-blessing-of-federal-govt/

Fed compensating already profitable highways concessionaires. Why not water concessionaires?!

@HJey. Tks. 'Value chain integration' sounds exotic to me. I thought they are already integrated. E.g. Fertiliser to OP plantations. Growing business not necessarily diversification. They can buy more land to plant OP (e.g. TSH) or expand their feriliser division by buying phosphate mines overseas. All these need capital, lots of it. If they just expand their OP hectarage, they will certainly grow their business via 'value-chain integration'!

I am knocking off for early lunch. Post again after lunch.

Collectors at RM3.06. Wait for possible selling wave by foreign funds in the afternoon after 3pm.

How to relax riding the tiger? The adrenaline is the fun. Will climb up the mountain this evening to 'relax'!

Ayamberlari - free range chicken - its that most delicious and healthy. How not to eat too much?

@angelina2. Final result: Puncak at RM8!!

No company is consistently good. In Hapseng's case, track carefully what the management is doing. Its massive share buyback and cancellation is already questionable i.e. to me - warrant holders directly benefited. Minority shareholders only indirectly benefited. Business expansion relegated to second priority after benefits to major warrant holders. Now WHO are the major warrant holders?!

If Puncak and Gamuda kena by fed, then it's like biting the hands that...! No way! There WILL be sweeteners!!

Nothing's binding until the price is agreed and paid! fed will NOT be tough on its own supporters; otherwise how to get $$$support for next show?

If afternoon no fourth wave of selling, then ride the tiger!

Puncak boss etc. are greedy for more comp. So what's new? Surprise if they are not, including kali. I don't believe a word he says!

3rd wave of selling contained. Now advancing. I already have ate some ayamberlari! Could be a good brand name for a new dish: Ayamberlari Goreng!

I believe fed cannot penalised Puncak and Gamuda, especially under the federal constitution. Fed will have to conpensate at net book value. CEOs of Puncak and Gamuda are no fools. They would have accepted if they feel they cannot get better price.

Asset & liability reflects account equity. Cleaner takeover and compensation. Assets should include account receivable from Syabas.

3rd wave of selling just started. Next support level is RM3.

Check your charts before making decision to buy or sell.

Weeee!! What a ride! Ride the tiger up anyone?

Second round of selling seems to be contained at RM3.10. 3rd round of selling in the afternoon by foreign funds? We will see.

@stkoay. Somehow I don't think fed will force unacceptable price on both Puncak and Gamuda both strongly linked. Let's wait for the fed to show its hand. The market defended Puncak price today.

@stkoay. OK. We will have big big makan pangang ayamberlari! HaHaHa!!

Yeah, I will be very careful. Please dump ALL your stock. I will pick them up. TQVM!

We will see what the fed has in store.

Time for exercise and dinner!

Selling held at RM3.26 i.e. 3 sens above yesterday's close!

Sellers now seem to be in retreat!

If deal blow off, water woes continue. Not politically feasible to allow deal to blow in the face of Kajang show!

@stkoay. I agree!! The whole deal may be worth more. The powers that be can't face ungno Selangor and Perak if deal is only that.

Someone is collecting Puncak shares at RM3.25. They do that only if they expect the price to up! So wait for the fed. The last I read is Razali is ungno's Selangor Treasurer. Don't think he will be badly treated. He would have accepted the offer if he thinks he get lower price when fed force WSIA on him.

Wait for fed to declare its hand. Equity or asset not relevant. To me only the price paid is relevant.

Somebody still collecting at RM3.25.

Yeah, the Mkini news seems to have set off a bout of selling. But cool babies cool. The fed has yet to declare its hand.

Someone collecting at RM3.25!

kali is referring only to Selangor State. We will see what the fed has to offer on top of the RM2B.

But the price trend seems to be heading north, slowly..

Another thought on Hapseng. I guess if they do not buy back but keep exercising the warrant, the share price will suffer. And the drop in share price due to share dilution may or may not be compensated by the increase in dividend. So I guess we retail share investors should count whatever little blessings that come our way.

haikeyila baby, I'm also a little concerned not hearing your wisdom for so long. Thanks for your feedback. Out of curiosity, I would like to know who are the major warrant holders. Could you help me?

@iafx. Then from the thread records, I did not mix up DCF with water tariffs as the two are virtually independent of each other. But you have implied that the two numbers are linked by asking me to 'check again and understand how the number linked to another'.

In fact the two numbers are possibly indirectly linked. But that is for the professionals at arbitration, not for amateurs like us in this forum.

Other questions: You wrote that 'dcf..is a simple method used to value the equity base on "anticipated" future value discounted to today's value'.

a) What is the future value that is "anticipated"?
b) What is the 'equity' that is being valued?
c) What is used to discount to today's value?

As for Syabas bonds - Kali's water takeover deal of RM9.65B includes taking over the debts. Puncak only gets net. I think Syabas' bonds due is another incentive for Puncak to agree to water takeover.

@iafx. I like to learn your take on how the two numbers 'link up' i.e. DCF and compensation for the legal increase in tariffs denied by kali.

The thing that troubled me about the share buyback and cancellation is that the enormous cash resources of Hapseng is being used to benefit the major holders of warrants instead of benefiting directly ALL the shareholders through giving better dividends, bonus share issues and generally growing the business.