Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-05-27 20:13 | Report Abuse

You have posted 51 posts on this thread originated by me here. Every post of yours, without exception, is about how bad Tien Wah is, and how good is your New Toyo, while New Toya as you have said owns 50% of Tien Wah. So how could this be? It is not that I give a damn.

I wrote the original post on Tien Wah here and I never asked anybody to buy it nor even talked about it after the posting. Yes, its business seems to be not doing well compared to before. Since then (10 months), its share price dropped 7 sen, or 3%. So what?

When people got tired of responding to your bashing posts, you come with these types of sarcastic remarks like below:

Posted by Robert Love > May 26, 2014 09:16 PM | Report Abuse
Where are all the strong supporters of Tien Wah?
Cowards hiding and still tied to your mother's apron strings ?


Do you have a life?

Posted by ccs999 > 2014-05-27 21:08 | Report Abuse

haha, nice one Mr. Chong - " do you have a life?"

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-27 21:23 | Report Abuse

I am enjoying my life :)

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-27 21:26 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz, maybe u should also report abuse by haikeyila for using "vulgarities" which might be legally liable...


"haikeyila ask a million more questions, squeeze your balls tight and watch the counter cross RM3 and pay special dividends."

12/11/2013 09:39

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-28 15:45 | Report Abuse

Seem that Tien Wah is finally going to break below 2.40 RM from its recent peak at 2.68 in Dec 2013...Finally, Mr Market is realizing that it has been overpriced..

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-28 15:48 | Report Abuse

This is likely to be followed by dividend cut for both the interim and final dividends...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-31 21:58 | Report Abuse

If I were New Toyo, I will just sell off Tien Wah first and keep the specialty paper business...

Posted by speakup > 2014-05-31 22:30 | Report Abuse

ICON IPO also over-priced, but I bet it will be over-subscribed by many folds.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-05-31 23:59 | Report Abuse

A Big Thank You To i3 Investor Forum Team for removal of MrTigerShark's malicious postings.

It is indeed an excellent swift response against mischief.

And Congratulations to i3 Investor Forum Team.

i3 INVESTOR.COM is No. 91 Most Popular Search Engine in Malaysia beating Investlah.com which is trailing far behind at No. 385

See i3investor.com Site Overview - Alexa

Also investlah.com Site Overview - Alexa

The removal of undesirable element will bring in more responsible people to post in i3 Investor Forum Site

So some fine day - i3 Investor should go up to Top 10 Most Popular Site in Malaysia.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-01 14:11 | Report Abuse

http://thanhniennews.com/business/vietnam-considers-increasing-tobacco-tax-26677.html

Another big trouble ahead for Tien Wah. The printing volume for Vietnam will reduce drastically with the impending tax increase...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-01 15:15 | Report Abuse

http://voicesofmalaysia.com/interviews/interview-tengku-tan-sri-dr-mahaleel-tengku-ariff-ceo-tien-wah-press

the chairman of tien wah is getting old. don't think he has enough DRIVE to bring tien wah to greater heights...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-23 22:39 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah finally dropped below 2.40 RM today....dying soon...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-26 09:51 | Report Abuse

who dares to accumulate now? Tien Wah dropping like a knife. 2.36 RM...where are all the heros and defenders of Tien Wah?

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-06-26 10:14 | Report Abuse

A string of negative news and bad result prompted me to lock in profits at 2.65. My hunched proved right, at least for now. Really, if you think a stock is going down, you dont have to own it. or getting your panties in a twist bitching about it here over n over again.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-26 16:20 | Report Abuse

I read your much earlier postings that said " still holding strong in the face of xxx"... Did u really sell all your holdings at 2.65 RM or still stuck at prices well below 2.65 RM?? haha

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-28 11:40 | Report Abuse

Are you contradicting yourself? Did u remember what u said back in Nov 2013?


"haikeyila:- holding strong in the face of a storm. while blue chips are being tossed around like houses in tacloban."
12/11/2013 10:27 "

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-30 08:48 | Report Abuse

Haikeyila - Good if u can explain what do u mean by "holding strong in the face of storm" ?? Holding Tien Wah at way below 2.65RM?

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-07-21 22:30 | Report Abuse

ended at 2.33 RM today....2.30 to be broken next..

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-06 19:47 | Report Abuse

tien wah has cut its dividend!!!
It should gap down to below 2.30 RM!!!!!!!

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-06 20:02 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah just released its Q2 results. As expected, the results were terrible.
Half-yearly EPS has dropped to 9.41 (sen) from 16.65 (sen) or 44% DROP.
Interim dividend has also been cut to 3 (sen) from 7.74 (sen) or 61% DROP

Since New Toyo is largely dependent on Tien Wah for a large segment of its revenue/profit, we can expect the results for New Toyo to be quite bad as well, and we should be prepared for a possible dividend cut.

The "unsustainability" of tobacco printing/packing has been explained earlier - printing volume reduction without a compensating pricing adjustment, unlike the big tobacco companies.

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-08-07 11:24 | Report Abuse

'i sound like a broken record, record, record. a broken record, record, record. all the times i said i was gonna change. Imma sound like a broken record, record, record'

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-09 09:44 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah will become value for money if it drops below 2 RM...

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-08-09 21:45 | Report Abuse

放下才可以飞翔

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-08-09 21:54 | Report Abuse

冷眼与华伦同说投资不可能全对，而是致力于对多过錯，就赢。
我是绝对赞同的。

Posted by speakup > 2014-08-09 22:47 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah is the past.
MFCB is the future!

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-09 22:57 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz & CPNG - Any comments after seeing that Tien Wah earnings for Q1 and Q2 were so bad? speechless?

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-09 23:04 | Report Abuse

It is not about who is right or who is wrong. It is about people who bragged and boasted that Tien Wah's tobacco printing/packaging business is sustainable and gives Tien Wah such a high valuation.

Aren't these people "misleading" the market into thinking that Tien Wah is value for money and a good investment? I find it so ridiculous that these people were still recommending people to buy into Tien Wah when it reached 2.50RM and when its fundamentals were fast deteriorating..

Tien Wah might be value for money Below $2.00 RM. Even at $2.20, it is OVER-VALUED!!!

Posted by speakup > 2014-08-09 23:14 | Report Abuse

Robert, buy MFCB. It is deeply UNDER-VALUED!!!

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-10-14 19:27 | Report Abuse

Suddenly all the talk about how GREAT Tien Wah was and the sustainability of their business becomes DEAD SILENCE....

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-11-14 11:09 | Report Abuse

time to relook this counter now that the price has been hammered. Back on the watchlist.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-12-05 20:19 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah closed at 1.86 RM today. Close to 30% drop from its peak of 2.60 RM. Dying soon...

Any more defenders left?

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-12-05 20:21 | Report Abuse

From the example of this so-called good counter, one can see that all the earlier theories being painted about HOW GOOD the stock is were all useless...

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-12-06 08:08 | Report Abuse

Read from somewhere this is "systemic" risk that all counters either good or poor would drops when the broad market drops. Therefore someone also said not only buying good counter but most importantly buying it cheap.
However TienWah does not meet my criteria as a good counter in the first place. Nice to read your post again.

Posted by Robert Love > 2015-02-04 21:09 | Report Abuse

this is one piece of GONE counter....it never had an economic moat to begin with. If BAT does not renew the contract, Tien Wah can close shop...

Posted by Robert Love > 2015-02-04 21:18 | Report Abuse

The above article made a serious flaw. It assumed that Tien Wah can grow at a certain average rate of growth annually. It will never happen in reality!!!

e.g. 3%, 4%, -2%, -5%, 4%, 5%, 5% --- Growth Path (1)

e.g. 2%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 2% --- Growth Path (2)

The average of the above 2 series = 2% per annum.

If one were to apply the above 2 different paths of growth rates to derive valuation for Tien Wah, one would certainly end up with 2 totally different valuation!!!

Welcome to the world of "Flaw of Averages"...

http://flawofaverages.com/

Hope the writer can go and read up on the book "The Flaw of Averages" :)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-02-05 00:39 | Report Abuse

Robert oh Robert,

Still harping on Tien Wah? OMG, others have moved far ahead already!

Anyway, I find your posting below which appears in a couple of my threads, classic, absolute classic!經典

I didn't know people can forecast future growth like you did:

[3%, 4%, -2%, -5%, 4%, 5%, 5%]

Classic, absolutely classic! Can't help saving your post below.



Posted by Robert Love > Feb 4, 2015 09:18 PM | Report Abuse

The above article made a serious flaw. It assumed that Tien Wah can grow at a certain average rate of growth annually. It will never happen in reality!!!

e.g. 3%, 4%, -2%, -5%, 4%, 5%, 5% --- Growth Path (1)

e.g. 2%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 2% --- Growth Path (2)

The average of the above 2 series = 2% per annum.

If one were to apply the above 2 different paths of growth rates to derive valuation for Tien Wah, one would certainly end up with 2 totally different valuation!!!

Welcome to the world of "Flaw of Averages"...

http://flawofaverages.com/

Hope the writer can go and read up on the book "The Flaw of Averages" :)

Posted by bsngpg > 2015-02-05 07:33 | Report Abuse

I LIKE the ironic and humorous comment, amuses me in the early morning. Ha! Ha!. Thks.

Posted by Robert Love > 2015-02-05 11:18 | Report Abuse

it is not about forecasting growth. It is about using probabilistic management to manage uncertainty in valuation analysis...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-02-05 11:30 | Report Abuse

Posted by Robert Love > Feb 5, 2015 11:18 AM | Report Abuse

it is not about forecasting growth. It is about using probabilistic management to manage uncertainty in valuation analysis...


Robert, perhaps you could share with us your "using probabilistic management to manage uncertainty in valuation analysis." in any of the stock you are familiar with.

I am dying to see your prowess in the above.

Btw, please explain what you mean first. I am with a head full of dew water now.

Posted by Robert Love > 2015-02-05 14:05 | Report Abuse

Bad news continued to stack up against Tien Wah and New Toyo...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/00d59d84-59ff-...z3QuVw39BJ

Posted by Robert Love > 2015-02-05 14:08 | Report Abuse

Instead of assuming a certain deterministic value of growth rate for Tien Wah, one should actually use a distribution of growth rate, and examine the impact of this distribution of growth rate on the final valuation, i.e. via Monte Carlo simulation...

It is all written in the book by Sam Savage..

http://web.stanford.edu/~savage/flaw/

Posted by Robert Love > 2015-02-05 14:10 | Report Abuse

In essence, F (E(x)) is not the same as E(f(x))....

:)

Posted by Robert Love > 2015-02-05 14:11 | Report Abuse

Praise for The Flaw of Averages

1. "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages ." - William J. Perry , Former U.S. Secretary of Defense

2. "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal...In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." - Harry Markowitz , Nobel Laureate in Economics

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-02-06 00:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by Robert Love > Feb 5, 2015 02:10 PM | Report Abuse
In essence, F (E(x)) is not the same as E(f(x))....

Wow, F (E(x)) is not = E(f(x))!

What the f is that?

And Robert oh Robert, when are you going to carry out your Monte Carlo simulation on the distribution of the growth rate to estimate the intrinsic value of Tien Wah?

What the f, I though using Monte Carlo simulation on share price of a stock is already mind boggling to all of us here, not to say apa itu Morte Carlo simulation on the distribution of future growth rate!!!!

OMG!!!


Posted by Robert Love > Feb 5, 2015 02:08 PM | Report Abuse

Instead of assuming a certain deterministic value of growth rate for Tien Wah, one should actually use a distribution of growth rate, and examine the impact of this distribution of growth rate on the final valuation, i.e. via Monte Carlo simulation...

It is all written in the book by Sam Savage..

http://web.stanford.edu/~savage/flaw/

Posted by MrTigerShark > 2015-02-06 00:50 | Report Abuse

WAKAKA!ROBERT MY FRIEND!APA ITI KCCHONGNZ IS TAI CHI MASTER!YOU POINT OUT HIS MISTAKE HE TAI CHI ONLY!!!

HE IS CALVINTANENG BEST FRIEND AND PRAISED HIM AS HONEST TRUSTWORTHY MAN!OMG!APA ITU!!! WAKAKAKA!!

ROBERT MY FRIEND,APA ITU SPENT MORE THAN 10 HOURS READ EVERY SINGLE COMMENT!!!LOL!!!HOW CAN YOU WIN!!!

HOW APA ITU TAI CHI MASTER GOING TO TAI CHI!!

1.FORGET ALL HIS BAD SELECTION.
2.COMPARE WITH INDEX.INDEX MADE UP FROM 30 LARGEST MARKET CAP CO.
3.HARPING ON VALUE INVESTING WHEN PERFORM BADLY VS OTHERS.
4.CRITICISE YOU ON CONTRIBUTE NOTHING AND DARE YOU TO FIND MISTAKE ON HIS PART.LOL!!!THEN APA ITU PRETEND TO FORGET AGAIN!!!
5.FAVOURITE PART IS FLAG YOU NON STOP!!!10 HOURS OK!!!

WAKAKAKA!!!!THAT IS APA ITU TAI CHI MASTER!!!!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2015-02-06 01:09 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by NOBY > 2015-02-06 08:49 | Report Abuse

Hahha... Monte Carlo simulations on the distribution of growth rate... OMG you are going to get a super wide range of intrinsic values ... basically garbage in garbage out anyway, whats the point of complicating things... valuation is an art not precise science... But yea... please show us this new method of calculating the intrinsic value using MC simulation... I am also very eager to learn....

Posted by ks55 > 2015-02-06 09:09 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah is in sunset industry, just like Star (Star slightly better 'cos it is trying to evolve through internet involvement). But again every share has its market value. To buy Star or Tien Wah with even money, I will choose Star. At present price, I will not consider both. To me, Tien Wah will be a good buy at 1.50, Star will be 1.80.

Posted by alphagst > 2015-02-17 22:28 | Report Abuse

Intrinsic value RM6.27, why now only RM1.98? I have to work past 60 years old if I have this stock in my portfolio.

Posted by Robert Love > 2015-06-19 08:01 | Report Abuse

1.75 RM