Posted by tobacco > 2014-03-08 21:31 | Report Abuse

Purchase of Anzpac in 2008 was by borrowings, and by now outstanding loans have reduced to RM 75mm with RM 44m cash.
There was only one rights issue, in 2010. What makes you think another rights issue is coming?
The massive purchase of equipment between 2009 and 2011 cost RM 75m.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-03-11 19:10 | Report Abuse

At the last AGM, Tien Wah said that it needed to step up its capex investment to keep abreast of their competitors. If we refer to latest Q4 results for Tien Wah, one can see that it has stepped up its capex again...

too capital intensive. Total Asset = 450mil (RM); total revenue = 380mil (RM). One dollar of asset is generating less than one dollar of revenue!!!

Next rights issue might be coming soon...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-03-11 23:19 | Report Abuse

can someone tabulate the 2013 financial results into the Table above as well. the revenue and profit have dropped. the trend has been reversed.

Posted by tobacco > 2014-03-13 01:57 | Report Abuse

Are you aware that after raising RM 28m from the rights issue in 2010, Tien Wah have paid a total of RM 47m?
2013 profit was marred by the RM 2.8m redundancy provision. Group profit would have been RM 36.6m. Together with depreciation and amortisation of 27m, cash flow of more than RM63m can easily pay for any capex.

Posted by tobacco > 2014-03-13 13:35 | Report Abuse

A typo error and missing words.
The post should read

Robert Love34
Are you aware that after raising RM 34m from the rights issue in 2010, Tien Wah have paid a total of RM 47m in dividends?
2013 profit was marred by the RM 2.8m redundancy provision. Group profit would have been RM 36.6m. Together with depreciation and amortisation of 27m, cash flow of more than RM63m can easily pay for any capex.

Posted by tobacco > 2014-04-03 11:30 | Report Abuse

Is the buyer of New Toyo, if there is one, required to make an offer to buy over Tien Wah too?

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-04-03 20:19 | Report Abuse

Since New Toyo already owns more than 50% of Tien Wah, whoever buys over New Toyo will gain control of Tien Wah. No need to make a double effort to make an offer for Tien Wah.

Posted by tobacco > 2014-04-04 15:54 | Report Abuse

Why would someone want to buy New Toyo if Tien wah is not promising, as pointed out by you?

Posted by tobacco > 2014-04-05 08:29 | Report Abuse

Have you got your facts right?
Specialty paper segment profit was only half of Printing's.
If Tien Wah is not good enough, it is a useless slave.

Posted by kk123 > 2014-04-05 08:53 | Report Abuse

Tienwah is a gameover stock , although it is paraded by some here as a hidden gem

Posted by tobacco > 2014-04-08 09:33 | Report Abuse

Specialty paper business and printing business serve the same industry.
If your assessment that printing business is doomed, New Toyo will not be on the buy lists of packaging companies.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-04-20 14:32 | Report Abuse

Sunset tobacco industry in Australia..

Philip Morris to stop cigarette production in Australia
American cigarette and tobacco company Philip Morris International Inc said it will cease cigarette production in Australia this year because of restricted export opportunities due to government regulations.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-12 23:24 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1620613

Tien Wah Q1 2014 result was very bad....

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-19 22:22 | Report Abuse

Growth
Even if the cash flow is great, investors would still hope for some growth of the business of the company, without which there will be no growth of the cash flow. It is hard to predict what would be the growth of the company in the future. But looking at its past, Tien Wah’s revenue and net profit has been growing at a commendable CAGR of 26% and 21% respectively for the past 5 years as shown in Figure 1 below and Table 2 in the appendix. I would be very happy if the growth can be just half or even a third of those achieved.

***

too bad. Revenue has reached a plateau and is declining....

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-21 09:39 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah 2 factories in Vietnam might be in trouble from the recent riots...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-21 22:04 | Report Abuse

What I said a few quarters ago has come true for Tien Wah.
{Pls see data below - Nov 2013}

Just look at its deteriorating revenue and net profits.
It will be quite soon before its share price adjusts downwards accordingly to reflect its deteriorating financials!!!

Its market valuation is too rich now. RM$2 sounds more reasonable to me.


**************************
Robert Love Let's be rational about Tien Wah.

1. How big is the printing market (tobacco and non-tobacco sectors) in Asia Pacific and how much is Tien Wah's share of the market?

2. Smoking rates and legal volume for cigarette volumes has decreased and will continue to decrease in Malaysia and Australia, 2 of the 4 exclusive printing zones in the contract with BAT. How is Tien Wah going to expand its market share when the sector itself is shrinking? Tien Wah did not reveal its printing volumes in its financial statements. Even at constant revenue, the cost of products has gone up due to inflation. Hence, the real printing volume decrease would have been much greater. Is Tien Wah venturing into new markets to mitigate the printing volume drop in Malaysia and Australia?

3. The Australian dollar will continue to drop over the next few years. This will also translate into lower earnings for Tien Wah for its operations in Anzpac.

4. With the advent of e-cigarette, the traditional cigarette volume is going to decrease even more rapidly. Hence, the demand for conventional printing will drop as well. How is Tien Wah going to deal with this?

Quite unlikely for Tien Wah's share price to move up from here when its revenue and profit are already stagnating or declining rite?

tks.

21/11/2013 15:29
*******************************

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-26 21:16 | Report Abuse

Where are all the strong supporters of Tien Wah?

Cowards hiding and still tied to your mother's apron strings ?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-05-27 05:10 | Report Abuse

Posted by Robert Love > May 26, 2014 09:16 PM | Report Abuse
Where are all the strong supporters of Tien Wah?
Cowards hiding and still tied to your mother's apron strings ?

Feeling lonely? Not many give a damn of what you write? That is because your reasoning is very unsound.

You kept on parading what the hack New Toyo and kept on bashing Tien Wah. But as you said New Toyo owns 50% of Tien Wah, why the hack you keep on promoting New Toyo and bashing Tien Wah? You have no idea if there are other companies except New Toyo and Tien Wahin the world?

You got a lot to learn from forumer tobaco here.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-27 19:51 | Report Abuse

Of course there are many stocks and counters out there better than Tien Wah and New Toyo with more credible history...

But the fact remains that the financials of Tien Wah has been deteriorating.
(just looked at the recent Q4-2013 and Q1-2014). Even company itself has acknowledged that its financial performance for FY2014 will be quite bad.

New Toyo is saved by the fact that it still has specialty paper business which is reviving. But it too has its own set of problems!

Posted by kcchongnz > 2014-05-27 20:13 | Report Abuse

You have posted 51 posts on this thread originated by me here. Every post of yours, without exception, is about how bad Tien Wah is, and how good is your New Toyo, while New Toya as you have said owns 50% of Tien Wah. So how could this be? It is not that I give a damn.

I wrote the original post on Tien Wah here and I never asked anybody to buy it nor even talked about it after the posting. Yes, its business seems to be not doing well compared to before. Since then (10 months), its share price dropped 7 sen, or 3%. So what?

When people got tired of responding to your bashing posts, you come with these types of sarcastic remarks like below:

Posted by Robert Love > May 26, 2014 09:16 PM | Report Abuse
Where are all the strong supporters of Tien Wah?
Cowards hiding and still tied to your mother's apron strings ?


Do you have a life?

Posted by ccs999 > 2014-05-27 21:08 | Report Abuse

haha, nice one Mr. Chong - " do you have a life?"

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-27 21:23 | Report Abuse

I am enjoying my life :)

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-27 21:26 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz, maybe u should also report abuse by haikeyila for using "vulgarities" which might be legally liable...


"haikeyila ask a million more questions, squeeze your balls tight and watch the counter cross RM3 and pay special dividends."

12/11/2013 09:39

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-28 15:45 | Report Abuse

Seem that Tien Wah is finally going to break below 2.40 RM from its recent peak at 2.68 in Dec 2013...Finally, Mr Market is realizing that it has been overpriced..

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-28 15:48 | Report Abuse

This is likely to be followed by dividend cut for both the interim and final dividends...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-05-31 21:58 | Report Abuse

If I were New Toyo, I will just sell off Tien Wah first and keep the specialty paper business...

Posted by speakup > 2014-05-31 22:30 | Report Abuse

ICON IPO also over-priced, but I bet it will be over-subscribed by many folds.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2014-05-31 23:59 | Report Abuse

A Big Thank You To i3 Investor Forum Team for removal of MrTigerShark's malicious postings.

It is indeed an excellent swift response against mischief.

And Congratulations to i3 Investor Forum Team.

i3 INVESTOR.COM is No. 91 Most Popular Search Engine in Malaysia beating Investlah.com which is trailing far behind at No. 385

See i3investor.com Site Overview - Alexa

Also investlah.com Site Overview - Alexa

The removal of undesirable element will bring in more responsible people to post in i3 Investor Forum Site

So some fine day - i3 Investor should go up to Top 10 Most Popular Site in Malaysia.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-01 14:11 | Report Abuse

http://thanhniennews.com/business/vietnam-considers-increasing-tobacco-tax-26677.html

Another big trouble ahead for Tien Wah. The printing volume for Vietnam will reduce drastically with the impending tax increase...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-01 15:15 | Report Abuse

http://voicesofmalaysia.com/interviews/interview-tengku-tan-sri-dr-mahaleel-tengku-ariff-ceo-tien-wah-press

the chairman of tien wah is getting old. don't think he has enough DRIVE to bring tien wah to greater heights...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-23 22:39 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah finally dropped below 2.40 RM today....dying soon...

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-26 09:51 | Report Abuse

who dares to accumulate now? Tien Wah dropping like a knife. 2.36 RM...where are all the heros and defenders of Tien Wah?

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-06-26 10:14 | Report Abuse

A string of negative news and bad result prompted me to lock in profits at 2.65. My hunched proved right, at least for now. Really, if you think a stock is going down, you dont have to own it. or getting your panties in a twist bitching about it here over n over again.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-26 16:20 | Report Abuse

I read your much earlier postings that said " still holding strong in the face of xxx"... Did u really sell all your holdings at 2.65 RM or still stuck at prices well below 2.65 RM?? haha

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-28 11:40 | Report Abuse

Are you contradicting yourself? Did u remember what u said back in Nov 2013?


"haikeyila:- holding strong in the face of a storm. while blue chips are being tossed around like houses in tacloban."
12/11/2013 10:27 "

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-06-30 08:48 | Report Abuse

Haikeyila - Good if u can explain what do u mean by "holding strong in the face of storm" ?? Holding Tien Wah at way below 2.65RM?

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-07-21 22:30 | Report Abuse

ended at 2.33 RM today....2.30 to be broken next..

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-06 19:47 | Report Abuse

tien wah has cut its dividend!!!
It should gap down to below 2.30 RM!!!!!!!

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-06 20:02 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah just released its Q2 results. As expected, the results were terrible.
Half-yearly EPS has dropped to 9.41 (sen) from 16.65 (sen) or 44% DROP.
Interim dividend has also been cut to 3 (sen) from 7.74 (sen) or 61% DROP

Since New Toyo is largely dependent on Tien Wah for a large segment of its revenue/profit, we can expect the results for New Toyo to be quite bad as well, and we should be prepared for a possible dividend cut.

The "unsustainability" of tobacco printing/packing has been explained earlier - printing volume reduction without a compensating pricing adjustment, unlike the big tobacco companies.

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-08-07 11:24 | Report Abuse

'i sound like a broken record, record, record. a broken record, record, record. all the times i said i was gonna change. Imma sound like a broken record, record, record'

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-09 09:44 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah will become value for money if it drops below 2 RM...

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-08-09 21:45 | Report Abuse

放下才可以飞翔

Posted by bsngpg > 2014-08-09 21:54 | Report Abuse

冷眼与华伦同说投资不可能全对，而是致力于对多过錯，就赢。
我是绝对赞同的。

Posted by speakup > 2014-08-09 22:47 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah is the past.
MFCB is the future!

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-09 22:57 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz & CPNG - Any comments after seeing that Tien Wah earnings for Q1 and Q2 were so bad? speechless?

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-08-09 23:04 | Report Abuse

It is not about who is right or who is wrong. It is about people who bragged and boasted that Tien Wah's tobacco printing/packaging business is sustainable and gives Tien Wah such a high valuation.

Aren't these people "misleading" the market into thinking that Tien Wah is value for money and a good investment? I find it so ridiculous that these people were still recommending people to buy into Tien Wah when it reached 2.50RM and when its fundamentals were fast deteriorating..

Tien Wah might be value for money Below $2.00 RM. Even at $2.20, it is OVER-VALUED!!!

Posted by speakup > 2014-08-09 23:14 | Report Abuse

Robert, buy MFCB. It is deeply UNDER-VALUED!!!

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-10-14 19:27 | Report Abuse

Suddenly all the talk about how GREAT Tien Wah was and the sustainability of their business becomes DEAD SILENCE....

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-11-14 11:09 | Report Abuse

time to relook this counter now that the price has been hammered. Back on the watchlist.

Posted by Robert Love > 2014-12-05 20:19 | Report Abuse

Tien Wah closed at 1.86 RM today. Close to 30% drop from its peak of 2.60 RM. Dying soon...

Any more defenders left?