Posted by Marketbandit > 2016-05-02 01:18 | Report Abuse

Username check, should you trust some random internet stranger that called TW@T, suggestion to buy share and make profit, I guarantee you going to have some bad time.

Posted by Hiu Chee Keong > 2016-05-02 01:19 | Report Abuse

Question, 冷眼大师's name in english is what ? Because bursa owner info is in english. Thanks

Posted by twot > 2016-05-02 01:25 | Report Abuse

i3investor reader are mostly retailers, they all unlikely able to "help" me to push big stock like Airasia. Just my own sharing, believe or not is ur choice.
冷眼大师 name in enlish is Fong Siling. BTW, im not saying he's buying airasia.

Posted by beso > 2016-05-02 08:21 | Report Abuse

it is time to sell airasia

Posted by beso > 2016-05-02 08:23 | Report Abuse

it is time to sell airasia

Posted by voon1900 > 2016-05-02 08:31 | Report Abuse

holland trip

Posted by sheep > 2016-05-02 09:31 | Report Abuse

the signs are there.. people want the shares to gown below 1.75 for YES votes at the egm....

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2016-05-02 09:42 | Report Abuse

i also believe cold eye already bought in air asia. around 1.60.

Posted by JinAurora > 2016-05-02 13:05 | Report Abuse

cold eyes owns JHM (15th Biggest Shareholder) and Solutn (4th Biggest Shareholder).. not sure he own airasia or not..

Posted by twot > 2016-05-02 20:00 | Report Abuse

lets us collect those who want to sell!!!
from the latest report can see many big famous funds buying!

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-05-02 20:56 | Report Abuse

Yaya, another guy wanna act smart!
Look back when u write your article asking ppl buy at above rm2, now 1.90!

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2016-05-02 20:59 | Report Abuse

We are so proud that the remarkable Mr.Fong "follow" our stock king Ah Plane Manager invest Airasia....

So proud of u Mr.Plane

Posted by Blacksails > 2016-05-02 21:01 | Report Abuse

TWOT, are u a taylor's university student? Hope u could translate your article, tks.

Posted by ImCK > 2016-05-02 21:09 | Report Abuse

dont trap people please airasia debt is too high once u.s hike rate this company wait die only

Posted by twot > 2016-05-02 21:25 | Report Abuse

BABYFAT who "running" a funds is not aware of recently market are so bad. And Airasia will not up too much before EGM.
Sorry Blacksails, the article is too long to translate, hope u can get somebody who can understand mandarin to explain for you. Sorry ya.
US unlikely will hike rate many times this year, even if hike also wont affect market much. MYR is still strong and undervalued!

Posted by Ahbeng11 > 2016-05-02 21:36 | Report Abuse

Anyhow use the name of cold eye ... speechless

Posted by twot > 2016-05-02 21:47 | Report Abuse

im not mean to use cold eye name, just I think that many ppl misunderstanding what he said about not to buy airlines stocks.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-05-02 22:57 | Report Abuse

You purposely wanna use his name, it is so obvious that u such a low life person!

Posted by VenFx > 2016-05-02 23:01 | Report Abuse

Pplane2016 PONG PONG PONG

Posted by red_85 > 2016-05-02 23:26 | Report Abuse

airasia is too exp la...aviation industry really hard to invest, only can curi ayam.
if you plan for long invest, please stay away..their debt is super long, and you dont know what will happen next few years...accident(chui) and competitor will cause price crash!

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-05-03 00:32 | Report Abuse

red_85, true!

TWOT, 大錯特錯！冷眼說的最重要兩個字是「風險」，關於亞航的問題、挑戰與風險，很多人都在論壇講過。因為風險，所以不應該買，這當然是他個人理智的一個選擇，因為他還有很多風險更低，贏面更大的選擇。「不願買錯！」

冷眼說基本面重要，那亞航負債高，淨利率低，子公司良莠不齊，行業競爭激烈，是藍籌股嗎？

巴菲特還是持有航空公司的股票，他也是經過很多年的分析才得到這樣的結論。「零和」遊戲，折舊過重，etc

巴菲特說，你要（從年報中）留意公司過去的表現，說過的話有沒有做到？做錯了事情有沒有反省，有沒有認錯，有沒有改過？ 【你看之前幾季為什麼亞航會虧錢？因為借了美元債券！那東尼有沒有反省，有沒有認錯，有沒有改過？沒有囉！】還有很多很多....

巴菲特對於折舊有獨特的看法，他說不應該用淨利來推算價值，應該用Owner's Earning，簡單來說是Net Profit + Depreciation - Capital Expenditure。折舊一年大概5-7億，Capital Expenditure 一年十六億，你調整了其實亞航Owner's Earning全是負數。

零和遊戲，其實馬來西亞航空業應該是負數。巴菲特用一個簡單的算法，你將多年來投資進入各航空公司的總數，跟那麼多年來所有航空業者的盈利比較，那個負數大得嚇死你。

In short, Warren Buffett said, through reading Annual Reports of the companies in the past, notice did management deliver what they promised? Did they admit their mistakes in the past? [If you look at the past few quarters results, AA suffered massive losses from USD loan! So did Tony admit the mistake? No loh!]

Warren Buffett uses Owner's earning instead of Net Profit to calculate real value of the company. Owner's earning is net profit add back depreciation and minus capital expenditure. Depreciation of AA is approximately 500-700 million a year, capital expenditure is about 1.6b. It's a big NO NO for Airasia if you consult Warren Buffett.

Zero Sum Game. If you add up all those investment put in the Malaysia airline industry and add up all the profit numbers made by airline companies, most likely you will get a big negative figure. Negative Sum Game in fact.

TWOT，讀書必須深入，別說「盡信書，不如無書」。你看，冷眼、巴菲特都說用了很多年才想通航空股的道理，這個道理叫做「公司很棒但不賺錢背後的原因」。

Posted by twot > 2016-05-03 01:39 | Report Abuse

很好supersaiyan3，最喜欢这种有点深度的comment！
是的，我并不否认投资亚航的风险不低，但也不能否认在低油价的情况地下，它的未来估值也是非常吸引人的！暂时先不谈长期永久持有，因为未来不确定的因素太多。亚航负债高，确实是导致一些人不喜欢的原因，但我也说了，还没有到该担心的状况。（当然，那些保守的人可以还是选择不买）子公司良莠不齊，但我觉得亚航是有能力解决的，而且情况有在改善！分析亚航确实比较复杂，我也确实做了蛮深的研究，但要在一两篇文章写完也是不太可能的，未来我也会陆续说出我的观点。但总的来说，经过我的个人研究，我估算的回酬让我觉得值得去承担这个风险。
在我投资亚航之前，我也有去了解过巴菲特投资航空股的案例。一部分失败的原因也是航空股成本过高，和受到廉价航空的冲击。总的来说，如果有稍微了解过Airasia，他们的business model真的是比较特别。很多估算方式不能apply在Airasia。（巴菲特也因为他的原则而错过微软苹果等科技股啊。有原则是好，但我们不一定要死跟）
还有就是你说的Owner’s Earning。其实如果今年亚航能赚10-15亿，which is market 的expectation，应该会得到你要的正数的。还有你确定，airasia的capital expenditure，除了过去两年，真的有那么高吗！还有其实Airasia的净利率也不低的，你可以看到他的Net Operating profit。但亚航的Net Profit常常受到其他因素，比如：一次性亏损或汇率的影响而导致不稳定。
我的文章可能更适合一些没有做过比较深入研究的人读。如果有哪位大神想要更深入讨论Airasia，也是可以私底下交流的！

Posted by Economist > 2016-05-03 05:27 | Report Abuse

有些消息，自己懂就好，做得太出面會害到自己也害到靜靜等蘋果吃的人，勸你還有刪掉它，不要為了一時的了不起，毀掉自已與別人的機會

Posted by hpcp > 2016-05-03 08:31 | Report Abuse

标题党。可悲。

Posted by blackspy > 2016-05-03 09:51 | Report Abuse

航空股是一个很难用数字去评估的公司。
买airasia或AAX,其实是买Tony这个人。

如果没有Tony,Airsia和AAX更本不值钱。

同样的道理就像Apple和BERKSHIRE HATHAWA公司一样，没了Jobs Steve和Warren Buffett，他们的公司的神话就没了。

Posted by cheeseburger > 2016-05-03 10:37 | Report Abuse

if you write this article and own AA share at same time, what makes you think you are not bias towards the share you own? beside telling everyone that ppl misunderstood?

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-05-03 10:41 | Report Abuse

blackspy，說得好！知人之明！

亞航二零零四年十一月上市，上市價一塊六左右（忘了），現在十二年了，股價RM1.90，為什麼？同樣一個Tony啊。

Twot，我說，亞航並不符合巴菲特的選股精神，這點應該是沒有疑問。

上一季Net Operating profit為什麼會高？你有沒有研究為什麼？那麼多寫AIRASIA的人，只有icon8888有提到，所以我說這是他的了不起。其他人根本沒有讀報告就亂吹。

Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-05-03 11:00 | Report Abuse

利用名人的名字来“假设”你的标题，虽然吸睛，但其实是很无耻的行为。

Posted by hpcp > 2016-05-03 11:06 | Report Abuse

消费冷眼大师的名誉。无耻

Posted by twot > 2016-05-03 11:32 | Report Abuse

航空股确实真的很难用用数字去评估。所以，我讲的更多是它的前景，还有一直强调它的品牌价值。
有没有注意到，很多成功的企业，大多数都有一个明星老板，那会是一个很大的加成！
Airasia近4年的年报和季度报告我有仔细的看过了（在前的就没有那么仔细），Icon888的文章我也读过了，难道我还有必要再重复多一次吗？况且，我讲的内容跟Icon888讲的也是不同类型。
我说的不只是上个季度的Net Operating Profit。
我个人也是冷眼的忠实读者，如果有“消费”他的名誉的嫌疑，那真的很抱歉。我只是想表达，很多人只是纯粹因为冷眼说过不买航空股而不买，我觉得我们更应该探讨他为什么不买的原因。当然，如果觉得风险高，不符合冷眼先生的理念，那也是没问题的。（但现在的亚航在未来，可能会一定程度上符合冷眼的选股理念的）

Posted by lazycat > 2016-05-03 11:42 | Report Abuse

mao yan kan

Posted by cyeec2000 > 2016-05-03 12:25 | Report Abuse

I dun think cool eye will invest in high capital expenditures bussiness..this bussiness can't generate enough cashes flow.2 billion debts..

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-05-03 12:58 | Report Abuse

pure liar! using Coldeye names

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-05-03 12:58 | Report Abuse

http://investips.my/?q=company&field_shareholder_tid_1=FONG%20SILING&field_symbol_tid=&items_per_page=50&order=field_shareheld3&sort=asc

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-05-03 12:58 | Report Abuse

where got airasia???????

Posted by twot > 2016-05-03 13:16 | Report Abuse

"如果"连冷眼大师都买了Airasia！
"首先声明，我不敢为冷眼代言，也不知道冷眼现在有没有买Airasia"
"所以这篇文章主要是要探讨: 以冷眼的投资股票理念，到底可不可以买Airasia呢？"
need translate into english, paperplane?
And I already apology to those who think that I'm "using" "cold eye" name.

Posted by hpcp > 2016-05-03 13:41 | Report Abuse

Title is manipulative. The explanation is also manipulative too

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-05-03 20:46 | Report Abuse

twot，品牌價值？

上千美元的一盒巧克力，上萬美元一個包包，那才有品牌價值。

如果你加入亞航，你只可以賣便宜，請問價值在哪裡？

Posted by VenFx > 2016-05-03 20:52 | Report Abuse

twot , u have innovative sense.
The responses are great.
Readers have their individuals viem to interpret it.
It's a successful article.
Cheers

Posted by VenFx > 2016-05-03 20:55 | Report Abuse

At least u do nothing harmful to i3 forumers. But, trying to widen the way of our thinking. It's a good try.But, that's the bloggers world. Take it with u, as long u know what u are doing. U DID IT FOR GOOD.

Posted by VenFx > 2016-05-03 20:56 | Report Abuse

This is what we need.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2016-05-03 21:00 | Report Abuse

twot，看來你還是不懂。你太懶了，應該拿一張紙，一支筆，一個計算機，用一個制表軟件好好算一算。

盲人騎瞎馬，夜半臨深池。

言盡於此！

Posted by hissyu2 > 2016-05-03 21:11 | Report Abuse

cold eye ady said he would always avoid airline de la~~ dun think too much~~

Posted by VenFx > 2016-05-03 21:16 | Report Abuse

TWOT ,u have passion.
Keen to see your 2nd article in A.asia.
Dig it bit by bit.
There are rarely comments on what mechanism that serve the Aviation industry well.
For me, it's too many thing to zoom in and how to get it 'simple but highly effective' is the key.
That well strengthening the value of Air Asia brand name.

Posted by Hunter Chan H K > 2016-05-03 21:32 | Report Abuse

先生，所谓的前景是会因为全球的供需而改变的。如果你想投机的话， 亚航这一两年因为油价确实可以缓一口气。有时看财报不是看到net profit 数字漂亮就断定这门生意赚“钱” 。 accounting concept 的net profit 是可以通过成本资本化， 把一些开销放入assets 里， 让你的开销减少而提升你的net profit. 所以， 你也要看 cash income statement. 如果亚航这么赚钱， tony 还需要丢钱来撑吗？ 亚航的债务很重，它的operating income 基本上是很难cover 它的debt repayment. 长远来说，它的现金流是很危险。Tony 就是看出这点， 才丢钱稳住大局。 冷眼是对的。他的经验值得参考。

Posted by twot > 2016-05-03 22:07 | Report Abuse

呵呵supersaiyan3,你的comments已经暴露了你的智商。品牌价值就是把商品买到很贵？你也太小看Airasia了吧，那么Facebook每天免费让你使用，应该早就倒了。研究Fundamental是对，但是研究股票是没有那么简单的，也是因为有你这样的人，大马的股市永远无法像美国股市那样成熟。希望你可以仔细去思考这个问题，宽阔你狭义的思维方式。
我有能力写出那么一篇文章，背后肯定有经过研究和思考。上个季度有一个一次性的Operating Lease Income，这么简单的东西难道我会看不到吗？我为什么不提？因为我根本没有说到上个季度啊!我一直在讨论我对Airasia未来的看法。况且，关于Quarter Report，Icon8888也详细分析过了。你一直用这点来攻击我，难道你只是发现这么一点小东西，就会那么值得你高兴？没有必要靠贬低别人来抬高自己。。。
一个Babyfat每天提debt，一个每天Operating Lease Income，似乎能提出这两点，会让他们觉得自己很厉害。
and lastly thank you VenFx for your support.

Posted by twot > 2016-05-03 22:17 | Report Abuse

是的，前景是会因为全球的供需而改变的，所以很难预料！不能说是想投机，就像冷眼先生说的，长期投资或短期操作。如果未来亚航情况也来越好，财务状况改善，当然我会长期投资下去。当然，如果在不久的未来，Airasia达到了我的Target Price或状况恶化，我也会卖掉的。也想冷眼说的是，如果有一天我发现自己分析错误，我也会毫不犹豫沽光我所有Airasia的股票。投资股票不懂得变通是很生存的！
或许我的分析写的不够详细，你们的顾虑我也是知道明白的。没错，我不否认亚航现金流存在隐忧，投资风险也很大！但我对它的潜能，未来前景保持乐观！

Posted by VenFx > 2016-05-03 22:19 | Report Abuse

U r wlcn. twot

Posted by Hunter Chan H K > 2016-05-04 00:39 | Report Abuse

希望你的乐观和固执能为你带来财富。 老实说， 我认同supersaiyan 的说法。 我们做投资的， 就是要把钱丢进能赚“钱” 的公司。 不是求赚盈利数字，背后却不停无止尽的烧钱。冷眼这些老前辈已经分享过经验了。 你又何必执着。 我只能说， 想做长远投资的，基本面的， 都会避开航空业。 无可否认， tony 是个很会商业包装， 也是很精明的商人。 他知道他不丢钱进去， 他辛苦打造的亚航就不能撑太久。他丢钱进去， 可以延续亚航的生命 同时也让你有错误的看法。觉得这生意很好。 大股东加码。 继续让一些人盲目追捧。 钱是你的，你要烧钱你的事。 你的分析观点， 还欠一些火候。 希望岁月能让你学更多。只好心一句， 别all in， 有赚就跑。

Posted by mming05 > 2016-05-04 09:07 | Report Abuse

"没后悔错过亚航
在发现以上的事实之后，我马上脱售马航股票，略有亏损。
不但如此，我从此不考虑投资航空股，因为全球几乎没有一只航空股是蓝筹股。
但是，这个决定也使我付出代价，那就是当亚航上市后，前景看俏，股价在1.20令吉的价格徘徊了很久，股票研究机构纷纷推荐买进，我都无动于衷，结果失去了一个赚钱机会。
因为后来亚航股价一度冲破3.50令吉，现在仍站稳2令吉。
但是，我没有后悔错过亚航，因为我选择“宁愿错过，不愿买错”的投资理念。"

i still support cold eye statement...