no la.. probability. I am newbie.. Must always learn from pro... Mr. Teh is very pro so I learn seriously. For me I wanna learn anything since I'm a good learner...
duit .. the 'experienced' operator failed his/her chart design :) the intra-day chart is already not GOOD on 17/6 closing ! i was paper-testing a trading strategy using 123 reversal on 17/6 and i chose comcorp .. there was a very clear negative price / momentum divergence on 17/6 closing .. at times, price may continue to surge with this warning but MOST OF THE TIME, it works .. since trading is a probability game, one shud really take heed upon sighting such signal .. duit, your analysis is great but it may take me a thousand years to study so many angles .. by the time i graduate as PA expert, bursa has become susah :)
Jun 17, 2016 04:31 PM | Report Abuse i fifo paper trade on comcorp also very kancheong ... LOL !!! Jun 17, 2016 04:45 PM | Report Abuse for day-trader sure close at 95.5 already :) syiok sendiri now !
Extract from duit's analysis 3:30:23 the condition became worsen with the CANCEL QUEU-throw direct and ADD ON SELL QUEUE but I must say that technical chart in 5m and 15m become more attractive (designed by experienced operator) where everyone jump out to shout RM1 target.
duit .. daily we know she is still controlled by the bear yes ??? and there is no sign of trend reversal as yet .. BUT i do like the intra-day charts ie when m15/m60 are trading ABOVE 200sma :) she may retest 53 to complete the 5 waves on m15 and then pullback thereafter .. not sure if u agree that we shud only enter on pullback ???
how come it's like u talk north i talk south :) okay let me be clear, this refers to our big 'O' ... comcorp drops or not to 53 i dOnt knOw !!!
Posted by connie > Jun 22, 2016 08:48 PM | Report Abuse X duit .. daily we know she is still controlled by the bear yes ??? and there is no sign of trend reversal as yet .. BUT i do like the intra-day charts ie when m15/m60 are trading ABOVE 200sma :) she may retest 53 to complete the 5 waves on m15 and then pullback thereafter .. not sure if u agree that we shud only enter on pullback ???
Hi duitKWSPkita I'm not quite agree the 2 points below: 1)This is considered as relatively high borrowing company 2)the share price increase was mainly due to "currency gain" but not really from operating For Item 1 (calculated from AR 2016) Cal Ind.Std a)Current Ratio : 1.5 >1.5 b)Quick Ratio : 1.0 >1.0 c)Ttl Asset/Ttl Equity : 2.4 <2.0 higher d)Ttl Liabilities/Ttl Equity : 1.4 <1.5 e)Debt/Gearing : 0.8 <1.0 f)Time Interest Earn : 8.2 >5.0 g)Cash Flow Coverage : 2.0 >3.0 Lower Based on the above, the Comcorp has debt, but is not a big issue and manageable
Item 2 (Information Fr AR 2016) Profit/Loss before Taxation (in K) 2016 2015 Var 1)Realised loss on Foreign Exchanged -5180 -2018 2)Unrelaised gain/(Loss) on foreign Exchanged +1005 -1818 3)Realised gain on foreign exchanged +3 +7 Total -4172 -3829 -9% The above shows that Comcorp increased in loss of foreign currency exchanged by 8% in year 2016.
To me is, everyone is expecting Comcorp will have good and fanstatic coming Q1 17 report since they are applying 1)Continuously cost improvement initiatives 2)Application of Lean manufacturing
However, when the price is push up higher Price = 0.7, Starts expensive Actual Ind Std PE = 7.3 <10 EV/Ebit= 8.1 <8
Say Price=0.8 PE = 8.3 EV/Ebit = 8.9 show that the price is quite expensive but retailers are dancing with BIg Shark.
The very important items to be highlighted here
(in K) 2016 2015 Var The Profit/Loss attribute to the Owner 13919 822 +1593%
Wow, the Profit increases tremendously, but something miss out here. Please continue below: 2016 2015 Var Trade receivables 30223 1892 +1497%
Wow, means whatever made in 2016 is not collected and caused negative cash flow generated from operating. Is the "BIG" amount collect able? 2 possibility results 1)If Yes, Coming Q1 17 report will be super fanstatic 2)If No or minium, then "No eye" to see.
For Investors, pray hard. Nobody will Know, except you are GOD or one of their key management staff, then you will buy since the price is almost back to fair value
Last but not least, Comcorp still a good company except the "price" is "goreng" up/down by some group of people
Disclaimer This is not a buy or sell call, the author only share the counter information. At the time of writing, the author has bought in comcorp at price 0.665, hoping that the 50% of trade receivable is collected and the net profit compare to Q1 15 should be good.
No problem in all the ratio as per stated in above.
Let's zoom in the cash flow items. 1) Operation cash has decreased from 5.42 mil to -4.39 mil 2) High CAPEX and incurred 4.53 mil compared to 19mil but back with other investng 3) your NET CASH change is correct dipped to -6.53mil from surplus 18mil last FY
4) I hope the financial status can be improved because the 87% of the total borrowing are from BA. I hope their customer always fulfill settlement on time but not to cause BAD DEBT......
When in the good time ; aggressive accounting to run the company is the BEST!.......... when ringgit bounce back I think they should enhance the manufacturing business and improve debt collection ....
I'm sure you MAKE MONEY tomorrow... then we go open table and eat fat crab...... deal???
Posted by duitKWSPkita > Jun 22, 2016 10:07 PM | Report Abuse X
Wonder88,
No problem in all the ratio as per stated in above.
Let's zoom in the cash flow items. 1) Operation cash has decreased from 5.42 mil to -4.39 mil 2) High CAPEX and incurred 4.53 mil compared to 19mil but back with other investng 3) your NET CASH change is correct dipped to -6.53mil from surplus 18mil last FY
4) I hope the financial status can be improved because the 87% of the total borrowing are from BA. I hope their customer always fulfill settlement on time but not to cause BAD DEBT......
When in the good time ; aggressive accounting to run the company is the BEST!.......... when ringgit bounce back I think they should enhance the manufacturing business and improve debt collection ....
My wish also as I on paper lose also and my avg price still below 0.8....but well played by the operators cause all panic and lose especially those on contra.
This company has always been a company in great financial stress, in constant liquidity crisis too high borrowings, too much BA, too high debtors and too little cash being generated to support its operations with too little equity capital.
duitkwspkita Hopefully,praying hard that the Q1 17, atleast 50% Trade receivable is collected, means 15mil (Profit attribute to owner-2016 only 13mil). Besides that the EPS for Q1 16 only 1.33 compare to 3.47 (Q3 16) and 4.5(Q4 16, great improvement even with same sales vol) respectively. As long as they can achieve or less little bit Q3 16 results(Q3 16 Sales vol is higher by 26mil), which is +160% improvement vs Q1 16 EPS. From the Last 10 minutes trading, the 0.665 is the top 3 vol during the Tuesday (21/6) closed.Total vol for 0.665 is 2.3mil (Buy- 1.57 mil and sell - 0.76), hopefully they are collecting back and pushing up back 2molo. Let us wait and see
$ 1 billion turnover with how much equity capital?
financed mainly by BA with their very fixed due dates?
if the customer delay you one month, I think you are dead already. Always rushing here and there to raise money to pay salaries...all the paper profits tied up in debtors and stocks is not a pleasant working environment.,
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
duitKWSPkita
26,756 posts
Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2016-06-22 18:16 | Report Abuse
Due to time constraint. I will discuss in very general findings. I hope it's for educational purpose and not to form any BUY/SELL call for tomorrow.
I sincerely hope all Comcorp traders/investors would manage well and continue to make promising gain everywhere.
Cheers.