Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-09 17:15 | Report Abuse

Talk like this you win liao lo

Posted by TheContrarian > 2016-08-09 18:19 | Report Abuse

I have already bought MBSB, what should I do now?

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-09 19:34 | Report Abuse

Follow the research house?
Tp 78 cents?

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-09 19:46 | Report Abuse

personally I don't like it at this price bcos if u see Affin it can trade as low as 0.5 times P/B when your profit is low. 1.15 x 0.5 = 0.58. at this price level, I'm afraid you can only hope if some good news happen, if not price will most likely be flat or go down. it's your own call, keep if you think good news are happening soon, sell if you don't

Posted by TheContrarian > 2016-08-09 19:46 | Report Abuse

Only shitty Affin called for a sell @ 78 sen, same shitty Affin who overpaid for Hwang DBS.

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-09 19:49 | Report Abuse

fundamentally I agree with their sell call, technical or newsflow could be otherwise

Posted by beso > 2016-08-11 11:11 | Report Abuse

sell b4 too late

Posted by speakup > 2016-08-11 12:00 | Report Abuse

sell mbsb, buy rcecap

Posted by AlphaBetaGamma > 2016-08-11 15:35 | Report Abuse

Jay: Thank you for the good writeup. Personally I think they are better financial stocks to invest in as some of the good ones are even trading at <1x P/B.

Posted by sharktank > 2016-08-11 17:07 | Report Abuse

ya loh, I bodoh bodoh buy and hold.lets see in end Aug I laugh die or not.

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-11 17:09 | Report Abuse

Jay secretly accumulating while writing bad news

Posted by sharktank > 2016-08-11 17:10 | Report Abuse

and I bodoh bodoh only look at earning, 4Q14- 393.1M, 1Q15 - 124.3M, 2Q15-85.6M, 3Q15-60M, 4Q15--15.8M, 1Q16-34.M, 2Q16-63.0M. so, it going up mah, so I bodoh bodoh buy loh. smart people like u don't buy punya. hihihi..

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-11 18:19 | Report Abuse

But that is only one method
I told there is 100 methods to choose from
What happens to the other methods
Can do a more details report and not biased on one method only?

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 19:15 | Report Abuse

haha i3 commenters are so predictable. from the number of comments I already can know whether MBSB go up or down that day

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 19:16 | Report Abuse

anyway no hard feelings, I will try to reply your queries/request. whether you take it or not is your choice

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 19:18 | Report Abuse

firstly I don't need to write bad about a stock to accumulate, and unlike other bloggers I don't think I'm that influential anyway. for MBSB I will probably only revisit it when it end its impairment program (i.e. end 2017) or if it drops below 0.60

Posted by pang72 > 2016-08-11 19:21 | Report Abuse

Jay...you are too good. Analyse i3 comments could come to conclusion of the fundamental of s company and predict the stock price....

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 19:31 | Report Abuse

to whom it may concern, i don't believe you are bodoh, in fact I think u thought u r smart by looking at the figures presented in bloomberg tv and judging from the last 3q, u conveniently conclude that yay MBSB is recovering. how about looking at these set of figures?

pre-provision profit 4Q14- 187.4M, 1Q15 - 259.0M, 2Q15-263.5M, 3Q15-262.4M, 4Q15--267.4M, 1Q16-257.6.M, 2Q16-254.6M

provisions/impairment 4Q14- 100.1M, 1Q15 - 101.3M, 2Q15-134.3M, 3Q15-195.6M, 4Q15-266.1M, 1Q16-218.5M, 2Q16- 179.9M

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 19:32 | Report Abuse

if you can't discern the trend, allow me to decipher for you. if you look further back to 2013, pre-provision profit averages around 300m/q. over the years, it falls to around 250m/q which tells u MBSB's problem lies deeper than provisions alone

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 19:35 | Report Abuse

why last 3 quarter profit improve when ppop is almost the same (declining actually), it's all about provisions amount, recognise less provisions higher profit that simple. so provisions are coming down? hooray! oops, management just told the whole world that they will recognise another 370m for 2016 (185m/q) and 740m for 2017 (180m/q)

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 19:40 | Report Abuse

so ppop no improving, provisions will still be at a level comparable to 2Q16, where is your profit turnaround? after 2017 maybe. if profit remains at 2Q16 level (about 70m/q), that gives u an ROE of about 4%. this is even lower than all the local banks and their lowest P/B is 0.5 times. so is MBSB special?

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 19:49 | Report Abuse

maybe I'm not sophisticated enough to know 100 valuation methods (i only knew a few) but anyone who has analyse banks/FIs will know that P/B is the prevalent method, whether you are from Goldman Sachs or Ah Kow Consultancy. Just to entertain you, DCF, EV/EBITDA, APV, cap rate, RNAV, EVA, residual value all not suitable for banks or MBSB. only possible one left is PE. estimated eps is around 4.8c, at current price 0.90 is 18.8 times PE. public bank PE is 14.6 times, wahahaha, MBSB is so special it warrants a higher PE than public bank (the well known most expensive bank in Malaysia)

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 19:50 | Report Abuse

so maybe you can enlighten me with the other 90+ valuation methods I didn't cover and how they point out that MBSB is a good buy at this level?

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 20:03 | Report Abuse

seriously guys if you want to argue that MBSB got insider news or technical breakout etc. I'll leave it to you. if you want to discuss fundamentals can you even try to do some homework? I'm not perfect but at least I'm diligent and I don't write or comment without reasonable basis or logic. I welcome constructive comments or criticisms but the least you can do is to point out where and why my arguments are wrong. but so far I don't see any....

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-11 20:08 | Report Abuse

I believe I have made my point on MBSB, so I'll move on until someone can give a constructive comment or criticism

Posted by pang72 > 2016-08-11 20:17 | Report Abuse

So how? Mbsb continue goes up tomorrow for sure

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-12 13:37 | Report Abuse

If public bank was so good why you don't write good article about it and let the forumer rate it? And public bank is cheaper now?

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-12 13:44 | Report Abuse

There is so many item in the annual report and you cannot come up with more than one valuation method, something show you didn't study the report hard enough. No time to entertain lazy people

Posted by pekor > 2016-08-12 14:00 | Report Abuse

Good article ! But you need to factor in that MBSB is doing impairment to be in compliance with current accounting standard. Their actual impairment on loan losses is only 25% of total impairment.

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-12 14:29 | Report Abuse

haih, the fact that operationally public bank is the best bank in malaysia is so undisputed even their rivals acknowledge it. it just shows again u don't even know some simple obvious facts. the only criticism people can find about public bank is that they are always so expensive, at their peak 3.5 times P/B, even now when whole industry a bit lacky also 2.3 times P/B

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-12 14:34 | Report Abuse

just to share with others who are interested in banks (by now I know some people are just not interested in researching), Public Bank's ROE is 16% vs industry average about 10%, cost-to-income ~30% vs industry ~50%, gross impairment ~0.5% vs ~1.6%, loan loss cover >200% vs ~100%

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-12 14:35 | Report Abuse

If dunno how to read report don't give tp 78 cents
Also 69 cents, sound ridiculous after result out
Did you mentioned you has no idea how to valuate a bank?
So how are you gonna advice sell call if you had little knowledge
Fainted*

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-12 14:36 | Report Abuse

so public is not just better, they are miles better. only negative their valuation also miles higher, 2.3 times vs others ~1 time. so does MBSB rank better than public or other local banks? ROE and asset quality ratios would have shown a clear picture (unless u turn a blind eye on them)

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-12 14:44 | Report Abuse

I'm issuing a public challenge to PlsGiveBonus (pls don't chicken out), since I'm the lazy bum (who spent time researching and writing articles while u comment), pls enlighten me and the wider public of at least 10 of your so called 100 valuation methods based on info from the annual report and how MBSB ranks better against other banks/FIs in Malaysia in these valuation methods. tp 78 cents is Affin's, my tp is below 60 (based on 0.5 times P/B based on the cheapest bank P/B). the fact is MBSB's ROE is so low actually they don't even deserve 0.5 times. that's my basis, how do u get your tp of >1.00 or >2.00? plucked from the sky?

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-12 14:53 | Report Abuse

@pekor thanks, but that only means MBSB has got away easy last time. now if they want to close the gap with banks, they have to up their standards. it's the same for banks, provisions doesn't mean the loans are hopeless but it means there are signs of stress. banks do routinely reclassify impaired loans that are performing back to performing loans. if I value MBSB, I would need to put a discount on them compared to other bank's P/B bcos asset quality, accounting standards etc. MBSB is below par compared to banks. which is also the reason why I don't value MBSB in my article cos it would be even lower than Affin's tp and it will piss even more people. calling a spade a spade seems so out of trend nowadays

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-12 15:09 | Report Abuse

Jay openly ask for lesson
I am too busy to adding my position in the counter
Anyone care to entertain him

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-12 15:12 | Report Abuse

just to share with interested audience, MBSB ROE 4%, cost-to-income 33% (bcos much lesser branch costs), gross impairment >7%, loan loss cover 97%. for those who hold MBSB and wishfully hope it will go up, pls don't challenge me into releasing more damaging facts on your company. financially and operationally MBSB is just not there until they finish their 'close the gap' exercise, i.e. end 2017

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-12 15:20 | Report Abuse

pak pak pak..... I see a big fat chicken. of course humble people will always seek for lesson bcos we accept that we have much more to learn. like what's the reason why chicken cross the road? ladies and gentlemen if u want to know the answer, look no further than asking PlsGiveBonus why he/she cross the road?

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-12 15:23 | Report Abuse

people who have read my articles before would know I am always open to constructive inputs, I even amend my articles to incorporate those views. so whoever has better ideas I am more than happy to learn from them. unless they are chicken, u know, language a bit difficult...

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-12 17:55 | Report Abuse

Jay so smart me is chicken little cannot give him lesson
Later he will call me chicken again
Run!

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-12 18:01 | Report Abuse

Chicken language smart person like jay cannot understand
Need to learn human language first

Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-08-12 18:30 | Report Abuse

My chicken methods consisted of 100 valuations
It show the bank is severely undervalued, chicken meat price must go up as soon as possible, 78 out of 100 respondents agreed the valuation work.
Chicken methods only accessible by chicken and it is classified information only chicken can understand the language

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-13 18:16 | Report Abuse

today's the edge weekly there's a nice chart that shows the ROE/PB correlation among Malaysian banks/FIs. There is a clear linear correlation except one outlier. No prize in guessing it right... (answer is MBSB for those who hate riddles)

Posted by pang72 > 2016-08-13 22:51 | Report Abuse

So how? Mbsb reach 1.00

Posted by Jay > 2016-08-13 23:00 | Report Abuse

it's not impossible. remember the heydays of sumatec or ifca? for any counter which its price run ahead of its fundamentals, if you can time it right and exit before it falls then you will earn. if not then you will be stuck...