Posted by probability > May 28, 2017 10:21 PM | Report Abuse X
ok, i also lazy to comment on this sandiwara....long live Mr.Koon the business entrepreneur, stockman the PLP king, sifu OTB the TA master, sifu KC the Financial X-ray and all...getting fed up with all these rubbish..
I just need a logical business analysis like a few who can provide in i3 occasionally...i think that's all there is.
In 1972 US B52 Carpet Bomb Hanoi - so the whole place must be cleared of leftover bombs. Jaks' power plant was delayed from starting for 3 years from 2014 to 2017.
So will its completion be also delayed for another 5 years.
3) Earnings from power plants at best reach 6%. See YTL Power example - it has a 6% profit rate. With such low profits even at full capacity by YTL Power will Jaks get a superior return?
4) Cost of Gas & Petrol are expensive in Vietnam compared to Malaysia. Will Jaks' cost of operation be prohibitive.
5) China Company JV with Jaks is overhyped. Look at BPuri. BPuri already has a JV with China Company in Kuantan for a portion of the Rm15 Billions project award. By this logic BPuri should be a better option than Jaks?
6) Jaks at 40 sen was cheap because of its NTA over Rm1.00. Jaks over Rm1.58 is trading far above NTA - so there is no margin of safety.
7) Jaks is a Cyclical Counter
prices of Jaks in years past
JAKS RESOURCES
Year...........Px Range Year low...............Year high....
ok, i also lazy to comment on this sandiwara....long live Mr.Koon the business entrepreneur, stockman the PLP king, sifu OTB the TA master, sifu KC the Financial X-ray and all...getting fed up with all these rubbish..
I just need a logical business analysis like a few who can provide in i3 occasionally...i think that's all there is. 28/05/2017 22:21
GOVERNMENT EYES ARE KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON KOON ACTIVITIES, AND ALSO OTHER OF HIS GENERALS...WHEN THEY HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE, THEY WILL NAILED HIM N HIS COMRADES
A public forum such as i3 has been dominated by FA and TA technicians without business sense for far too long already.
My guiding principle for stock selection is good business, good people and good numbers in this order.
If every FA wants to buy high NTA, low PE and strong Balance Sheet...(and they don't even adequately cover the business) ..when high NTA, low PE and strong Balance Sheet is actually found, what do you call these? I cal them left overs, like the wall flowers in dancing party. It is not going to be very lucrative if your whole portfolio is full of left overs and wall flowers.
On the other hand, Amazon is a 500 bagger but what FA tools can the FA experts use to buy and hold on to Amazon shares to ride the rise of Amazon? Again, reinforcing the idea that business sense is the number one skill to be a hugely successful investor.
Even financial guru Warren Buffet recently admitted he was wrong to have overlooked Amazon and didn't have the financial smarts to buy Amazon. Even Warren Buffet admits there is room for improvements in his arsenal.
So...would the i3 warren buffet wannabes dare say he is so perfect he has no room for further improvements?
So Warren Buffet recently admitted he was wrong and he did not have the financial smarts to buy Amazon ...but what made WB into WB was his strength and ability to buy turnarounds.
In turnaround situations, you will find wrecked Balance Sheets, littered with loans and borrowings, low profitability, high PEs...yet off the Balance Sheet, off the audited accounts, a developing story of improving environment, a compelling story you have to dig out....like when WB bought into oil and gas industry, airline industry, banks and insurance companies , railroads and each time, after major crisis in the particular industry.
Growth stocks and turnarounds have no easy formulas to follow, each case is different but they offer some of the best returns.
Jaks , growth story and Sendai, turnaround story are good local examples.
1) Jaks (200%) 2) Pohuat (Power huat) (200%) 3) SILK (200%) 4) Super Enteprize (200%) 5) Supermax (100%) 6) Jerasia (100%) 7) MyEG (My Emas Gold) (100%) 8) Pm Corp (100%) 9) Ipmuda (Limit up more than 100%!) 10) Ajiya (100%) 11) NOW TODAY LATEST IS PRESTAR or Pre STAR - Buy it before it turns into a Star http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/92608.jsp
And more fuller list
See how Calvin made these chun chun calls over 3 years in i3 forum:
GO CHECK THESE OUT CAREFULLY:
1) Super Enterprize made 200% 2) Pohuat made 200% (All furniture stocks bull run Calvin called to buy) 3) Silk made 200% 4) JAKS (Jaks jump, jump, JUMPED from 40 cts to Rm1.20 (UP A NICE 200%) 5) MyEG made 100% 6) AJIYA made 100% 7) Supermax made 100% 8) JERASIA made 100% 9) IPMUDA made more than 100% & LIMIT UP! 10) Pm CORP made 100% (3 Times in 3 years) 11) PRESTAR (Pre Star buy it before it turns into a Star) Made 70% 12) ASB (Up 50%) 13) KHEESAN Made 80% 14) PADINI made 90% 15) TAWIN (Big win) Up 80% 16) Kimlun - The Golden Dragon made 60% 17) THE STORE (Up 25%) 18) NTPM - (King of Tissue) Up 40% 19) WANGZNG - King of Fortress (Up 40%) 20) MAHSING - The Singing Horse (Up 25%) 21) MAYBULK - The rebound of Baltic Dry Index (Up 90%) 22) CEPATWAWASAN - Cepat cepat beli (Up 40%) 23) NYLEX - Up 20% 24) Southern Steel (Up 30%) 25) KULIM (Taken private) Up 60% 26) TMakmur (Land of Prosperity. Taken private) Up 37% 27) KPSCB (Kaboom Power Surging) Up 45% 28) MASTEEL (Master of Long Steel) Made 60% 29) THPLANT (Up 15%) 30) BPLANT (Up 12%) 31) JTIASA (Giant Treasure) (Up 40%) 32) MHC PLANT (Up 15%) 33) CPO FUTURE (Up 15%) 34) INSAS (Up 11%) 35) WASEONG (Up 20%) 36) MFCB (My Father Comes Back) Made 40% 37) Cyclical 11MP Election stocks KKB (Kaboom Kaboom Booming) Up 35% 38) Cyclical 11MP Election stocks CMSB (Up15%) 39) RceCapital (The Best of Banking: Legalised Ah Long) Made 60%
LATEST ANNOUNCEMENTS:
THE STORE GOING TO BE TAKEN PRIVATE FOR 50% PROFIT OR MORE THAN 18% FOR EACH YEAR OF 3 YEARS!!
AND PRESTAR WILL BE ANOTHER 100% JACKPOT SOON!!
SO 4 STOCKS MADE 200% (Super Enterprize, Jaks, Silk & Pohuat)
6 STOCKS MADE 100% (Ipmuda, Supermax, Ajiya, Jerasia, Pm Corp & My EG)
4 STOCKS TAKEN PRIVATE FROM 37% to 200% GAIN KULIM, TMAKMUR, THE STORE & SUPER ENTERPRIZE!
Can you CALCULATE?
The Top 10 Stocks already gained 1,400%!!
EXTRA! EXTRA!!
CALVIN WAS STUCK IN LAST TIME
now ANOTHER 10 CHUN CHUN STOCKS UP 100% EACH!
SKBSHUTTERS - NOW UP 100%
AZRB warrant - NOW UP 100%
INSAS warrant - NOW UP 100%
DRB - NOW UP 100%
DRB C30 - NOW UP A NICE 200%
ASB - UP 100%
PRICE WORTH -worth it - UP 100%
NOTION - UP 100%
PADINI - UP 100%
TAWIN (Big Win) UP 100%
GO TO THEIR RESPECTIVE FORUMS AND LOOK THEM UP ONE BY ONE.<<<<
Calvin,
For the record in 3i,
How many stocks have you recommended the last 10 years?
How many of your recommended stocks did you buy over the last 10 years?
How many stock transactions (buy and sell) did you average yearly?
Why is the above relevant?
Calvin recommended Jaks in 2005 at 40 sen and today it is worth 300% or 400% more.
Did you buy Jaks in 2005?
Did you hold onto Jaks till today?
How long do you usually hold your stocks?
When do you sell your stocks?
[By the way, I bought a particular stock in 2005 too, and today it is a 12 bagger, not including the dividends.]
Csc is at PE10 while choobee is at PE 7. With the anticipated selldown, choobee will be at PE 6 with a special dividen of 9 sen that translates to 4.5%. Any investor can easily identify which one is a better buy :)
There he goes again discrediting some companies. Remember his trick on GADANG. He said the Qr would be bad. Gadang fell to 80 sen. You know who collected this share. When it went higher to rm1.20 he said made wrong analysis and sold all his shares collected at a low price. Be very very careful . Maybe he wants to collect then
I don't disagree with what KYY wrote that business sense is important, that is part of fundamental analysis anyway. Financial analysis is a part of fundamental analysis and there's a valid reason for most investors to start from financial because that is the easiest place to start learning, before branching out to learn more about the industry and business as a whole.
And if financial analysis is not enough, suffice to say the golden rule (current Q eps has to be higher than previous Q eps), which is build on the entirety of financial analysis, mislead investors as well.
The largest manufacturer of CRC products in Malaysia. CSCSTEL (listed in Dec 2004) is engaged in the upstream of the steel value chain, manufacturing and marketing of pickled and oiled steel (PO), cold rolled coil (CRC) products, hot dipped galvanised steel (GI steel) and pre painted galvanised steel (PPGI) or colour coated steel. The group operates in the mid-stream of the steel value chain. The stock is a resilient play on the steel sector amid diversified revenue base to buffer fluctuation in the industry in the construction & property, manufacturing & Industrial, automotive and others. Since inception, CSCSTEL was able to ride on the tough operating environment largely unscathed, thanks to its hands-on management, solid balance sheet, sound business structure, product acceptance and operational efficiency coupled with strong backing from its parent, China Steel Corp, Taiwan. The company is situated in Ayer Keroh Industrial Estate in Melaka. It has the capacity to produce 40,000 metric tons of P&O, 440,000 metric tons of CRC, 240,000 metric tons of GI and 120,000 metric tons of PPGI steel annually. CSCSTEL’s main raw material, hot rolled steel (HRC), is mainly supplied by its parent company and its related companies in Taiwan and Vietnam. The group’s downstream customers are the steel pipe makers, steel drum makers, roll formers for roof sheet and cladding and steel service centres. In 2016, the capacity utilization rate of the plant is 90% and its main market is in Malaysia with less than 20% of its revenue derived from exports.
CSC ANOTHER FAILED PROMOTION OF KYY....THE LATEST ANNUAL REPORT STILL SHOWS HIM HOLDING THE STOCK BUT AT A VERY MUCH REDUCED AMOUNT OF SHARES LOH...!!
CHOOBEE V CSC WHO IS BETTER AH ? RAIDER THINK BOTH SHOULD BE GOOD...BASED ON RAIDER ESTIMATION CSC AND CHOOBEE SHOULD TRADE ABOUT THE SAME PRICE LOH..!!
BUT REALITY IS THAT MKT ACCORD A HIGHER VALUATION TO CHOOBEE COMPARE TO CSC LOH....!! WHY LEH....? bCOS THEY ARE WORRIED KYY WILL SELLDOWN HIS HOLDING ON CSC MAH...!!
Since stock levels at Choo Bee is at record level, stock write off at Choo Bee will be horrendous if prices come down because iron ore prices have come down about 40% recently..................
you have to look at their respective stock levels then....Choo Bee is a steel trader and speculator.....Choo Bee bet the farm that prices will keep going up...CSC is just normal stock level at March 2017.
Technical analysis is used for spotting windows of opportunity to make $$$. This window of opportunity does not last long n if u failed to take advantage of it due work etc, it is already long gone. Then it must be acted quickly when the sell opportunity arises.
If u use TA to play long term, u would probably be trapped.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
calvintaneng
56,576 posts
Posted by calvintaneng > 2017-05-28 22:17 | Report Abuse
Calling Probability!