Posted by soojinhou > 2017-07-12 13:04 | Report Abuse

Also, Shandong Hengyuan is a state-owned enterprise, which makes it less likely to engage in fraud.

Posted by ken > 2017-07-12 13:08 | Report Abuse

Hi,
Datuk Yvonne Chia and Datuk Zainun no longer director of HRC effective 1st June 2017. Replaced by Mr Liang Kok Siang and Pn Faiziah Hisham.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 13:23 | Report Abuse

Omg...LionKing is here...i thought it was just for Musang King..he he

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 13:36 | Report Abuse

trust?

that is for those who need to see the management (the driver) to decide...

when its a straight road...and when you can see the car itself..its specification and its performance (the car horse power)....

even a meow meow driving it will win the race..

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 13:37 | Report Abuse

I am not a Kwailan, but having a Westerner as the MD does give me a big boost of confidence.

Icon, you are kwailan and RACIST loh. Hengyuan is china company now. then you said because guai lou is CEO you comfort. So next day Hengyuan appoint a PRC as CEO you sell?
Joker

Posted by suregain > 2017-07-12 13:42 | Report Abuse

if im not mistaken. vyone cheah and datuk zainon oredi resigned

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 13:45 | Report Abuse

ks55, you lose many like KYY? buying Xingquan etc ah? hahahah.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 13:46 | Report Abuse

compared to studies conducted by many earlier expert like probability, etc. Icon article looks so like the kindergarten standard. what a pity. better don't write. After our analysis, PETRONM is a BUY.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 13:52 | Report Abuse

nevermind paper...icon is helping to get the trust from people like ks55...these are the old generation folks who always carry balls of management...& their balls is all they care...he he

Posted by paperplane2016 > Jul 12, 2017 01:46 PM | Report Abuse

compared to studies conducted by many earlier expert like probability, etc. Icon article looks so like the kindergarten standard. what a pity. better don't write. After our analysis, PETRONM is a BUY.

Posted by ken > 2017-07-12 14:04 | Report Abuse

HRC is not red chips.. The board of director, 4 Malaysian, 2 Chinaman, 1 Angmo. Management team all Malaysian, 4 Melayu, 1 Indian and 1 Chinese.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 14:49 | Report Abuse

if not because of these stupid reasons:

i) peoples linking of oil absolute Price with refinery Margin,
ii) Alex Lu on wrong spread - refinery margin chart, and
ii) perception of Chinaman association with HRC...

HRC should be trading well above 7.00 by now..

Posted by cpng > 2017-07-12 14:51 | Report Abuse

Ks55 +1

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 14:57 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 15:25 | Report Abuse

haha. emo

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-07-12 15:27 | Report Abuse

Walao, disappointed with icon sifu writing quality this time.This article ot write = no write man. Didnt gain any special insight. After airasia, really run out of ideas jor

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 15:28 | Report Abuse

haha.............icon need to fight many experts, tough lah. he just know insider news lah, goring this and tht only. what crack speed margin, he totally blank

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 15:38 | Report Abuse

surprising no TP this time, ICON takut. hehehehe

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 15:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by cheoky > 2017-07-12 15:55 | Report Abuse

Hengyuan is a buy provided no drastic fluctuation of crude oil.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 15:56 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 16:01 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 16:12 | Report Abuse

Hehe. Conman? Guai Lou woh

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-07-12 16:27 | Report Abuse

sapu~

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-07-12 16:28 | Report Abuse

@
ken HRC is not red chips.. The board of director, 4 Malaysian, 2 Chinaman, 1 Angmo. Management team all Malaysian, 4 Melayu, 1 Indian and 1 Chinese.

guess what?

angmo solo operation. The rest 6 ppl wait and collect money lol

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-07-12 16:29 | Report Abuse

ok i will go pump shell tonight =)

Posted by dusti > 2017-07-12 17:08 | Report Abuse

Interesting discussions already exist on Hengyuan forum.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 17:25 | Report Abuse

the bank has no worries on providing HRC 1.3 Billion...why?

the inventory is oil..its been on planet earth for billions of years..
instead depreciating (or decomposing)...it appreciated drastically on 20th century...he he

Posted by jediinkl > 2017-07-12 17:35 | Report Abuse

red cap.. mai la

Posted by eskaylien > 2017-07-12 18:42 | Report Abuse

A word of caution: Are the last two quarters' profits sustainable?

I suspect earnings were boosted by inventory profits during a period of rising crude oil prices.
The coming quarter's earnings will be crucial given it coincide with falling oil prices.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 18:53 | Report Abuse

no its not sustainable as the refining margins is increasing..

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 19:00 | Report Abuse

For a layman one can visualize like this (corrected):

with a crack spread (composite of Jet fuel, Gasoline, Fuel oil etc) margin of 9 USD/brl, with throughput turnover of 30 days, they are actually raising their Oil inventory value by 9 USD in one month's time.

meaning if you have 800 Million worth of Oil inventory (say current price is 50 USD/brl Brent), in 30 days you had increased its value to 944 Million...

Value Addition is 144M per month! 432M in a quarter..
(this is no bullshit figure, this is indeed your expected gross profit if you have not stock loss at current refinery margins)

(for professionals they can use 1 Billion worth inventory with an increased throughout by 20% to maintain the same turnover of 30 days ...and see the jackpot numbers if they like!)


This means, in a quarter (3 months), the refinery is actually increasing the value of their oil by 3 x 9 USD/brl = 27 USD/brl!!


Oil value has a bottom threshold ~ 40 USD/brl due to shale oil...
so why do you or the Bank need to worry?

Meaning even if Oil price drops by 27 USD to say 23USD/brl...you have a one time zero gross profit.. thats all.

Posted by eskaylien > 2017-07-12 19:14 | Report Abuse

probability no its not sustainable as the refining margins is increasing..
12/07/2017 18:53

Prob... Assuming it's not sustainable... it's a bit mischievous of Icon8888 to annualise Q1 2017 earnings, and come out with a headline "...1.5x PER...", isn't it?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-12 19:22 | Report Abuse

Fcf good?

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 19:29 | Report Abuse

There are only 3 options for earnings not to translate as cash (temporarily)...

its either they got stuck as receivables (1), inventory oil (2) or over enthusiasm to pay the suppliers (3)...

none of them can continuously be recurring...
you can't shut of your anus hole and keep eating continuously.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-12 19:32 | Report Abuse

Infact Depreciation of HRC is more than double the rate of PetronM per unit shares..it has all the reason to blast with FCF soon!

Posted by cheoky > 2017-07-12 22:27 | Report Abuse

LOLX. probability got great metaphorical and imagination skills. geng

Posted by suregain > 2017-07-12 22:50 | Report Abuse

Petron is,useless... not moving at all. Hrc beter

Posted by stockraider > 2017-07-12 23:31 | Report Abuse

WHY COMPLAIN ICON WRITE UP ?

AFTER RAIDER CAREFULLY READING ICON WRITE UP IS GOOD, IF NOT GREAT LOH..!!

ALTHOUGH WHEN COMPARE WITH PROBABILITY, PEOPLE SAY LACK DETAIL LOH, BUT RAIDER WILL SAY THIS LOH...ICON WRITE UP IS NOT COMPLICATED...HIT THE POINT LOH...!!

YES...IF U WANT TO STUDY MORE...THAN U LOOK AT PROBABLITY WRITE UP LOH..!!

BUT ANY HOW ICON ARTICLE...IT IS BUY BUY BUY AND BUY LOH...!!
NO WONDER HRC MOVE UP LOH...!!

YES PROBABILITY & RAIDER HAD BEEN HIGHLIGHTING HRC ITS UNIQUE INVESTMENT ADVANTAGE FOR MANY WEEKS...BUT DID NOT HAVE FAST SPRINT IMPACT LIKE ICON LOH...!!

ICON HAS HIS STRENGTH....RAIDER DO SALUTE LOH...!!
THATS WHY LATELY ALMOST ALL ARTICLE COME UP BY ICON ON STOCK, RAIDER IMMEDIATELY JUMP IN AND BUY AND MAKE MONIES MAH...!!

Posted by Ah Hoy Lim > 2017-07-13 00:02 | Report Abuse

buy buy in

Posted by pang72 > 2017-07-13 00:15 | Report Abuse

This low PE refinery stock is getting more and more attention.
The down side is very limited.
The upside is tremendous...

Posted by pang72 > 2017-07-13 00:16 | Report Abuse

We shall see another sky rocket performances as today...

Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2017-07-13 10:55 | Report Abuse

dumb dumb buy some. cheers....

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 11:25 | Report Abuse

ricky also buying? good....I thinking to add more or not....

Posted by radzi > 2017-07-13 11:45 | Report Abuse

I like this article. May buy.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 12:06 | Report Abuse

So P/E 1.5 is RM5.80, eps=3.86?
P/E 5=19??

Posted by stockraider > 2017-07-13 12:12 | Report Abuse

Posted by paperplane2016 > Jul 13, 2017 12:06 PM | Report Abuse

So P/E 1.5 is RM5.80, eps=3.86?
P/E 5=19??

PAPERLANE,

FINALLY UNDERSTAND HRC VERY BULLISH INVESTMENT MATRIX LOH...!!

BUT IF HRC PE = PET DAG PE 23X LEH ?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 13:56 | Report Abuse

Raider bro, I get this. But my concern is on the borrowing. It will be eating their bottom line. End up working hard for banks only.

Which is why I am more comfortable with PETRONM. But SHELL has higher potential for sure. If they succeed in pairing down borrowings.

But to be clear, its not apple to apple comparison here. If I am not wrong:

HENGYUAN-listed Refinery ONLY.
PETDAG-PURELY PETROL STATION ONLY.
PETRONM-Mix of Refinery+Petrol Station

Which why I like pteronm for Balance play. If refinery margin goes down, covered by Retail margin. If retail margin stress, sometimes refinery get better. Balance play is important. Either one might be higher risk to me.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 13:58 | Report Abuse

and P/E x23 for Petdag is similar to Consumer Sectors like AEON, etc. So the same P/E might not be applicable if my above point is correct.

Normal refinery P/E not sure how much, mixture of both that's why PetronM deserve higher P/E. example P/E 10 for mixtures, P/E 8 for pure refinery? P.E 20-25 for Pure retail?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 13:59 | Report Abuse

which Icon highlighted historical P/E 5 is average. That's why we should be conservative applying only P/E 5 for Hengyuan. which TP should be near RM18-19.00

Posted by pang72 > 2017-07-13 14:08 | Report Abuse

Conservative PE applies to HY deriving TP rm18 to rm19
HY is rm5.84 now! So..

.