Posted by probability > 2017-07-13 13:53 | Report Abuse

Even the precise mechanism of the Refinery Margin to be used for selling to Shell is mentioned in their Annual Report 2016 transparently.

This gives more certainty that HRC Earnings will reflect the local / regional (Singapore based) margins without hidden special discounts for Shell retails.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-13 14:05 | Report Abuse

"What was intriguing about the deal was the pricing. Shell disposed of its 51% stake in Shell Refining to Hengyuan at RM1.92 per share. This represented a huge 60% discount to Shell Refining's market price before announcement of the deal. The official reason given by Shell International was that Shandong Hengyuan has demonstrated ability to refinance Shell Refining's borrowings. This is actually a very credible explanation : banks lent money to Shell Refining in the past because they trusted the Shell name. But now a Teapot has emerged as the new controlling shareholder, the risk profile has changed beyond recognition. The banks wanted their money back. Whoever that can pull off a refinancing deal will be the most qualified candidate."


Very interesting explanation which i never thought of. This is exactly due to the difference in way of thinking between engineers and accountants in Bank....

You cannot use technical explanations to convince Bank to provide you the fund...he he..

AND precisely the reason why market still unable to realize how cheap HRC is now.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 14:07 | Report Abuse

good point probability.

Anyone highlight risks of investing then?

Electronic cars, hybrid will be the future, all public transport and even airplane going hybrid or electronic very soon. Volvo 2019, London taxi very soon, Singapore alredi started automation of cars via electric.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-13 14:13 | Report Abuse

Paper...that is very very long way to go...

even it happens very fast dramatically... the supply and demand will cushion it. The moment demand comes down...shale oil will be the first to be killed...and it will have balancing effect on supply. The price will be retained.

These are energy...it price can come down...but will it ever lose its value? There is definitely a threshold price where fuel will be cheaper than these alternatives (solar, nuclear, wind etc).

meaning the price can come down...but the demand will always be there - simply because it is ENERGY.

everything you do in life...even bionic robots in future will need this.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 14:15 | Report Abuse

most reports I read signal 2020 is the tipping point. 2020 onward will see drastic changes in energy. The REVOLUTION after Internet of Things.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-13 14:21 | Report Abuse

actually if you want to talk about future...even humanity existence (at least the population growth) is under a big question mark?

all gdp will be shrinking then... Japan now would be the glimpse of the future to come for developing countries..

Posted by JN88 > 2017-07-13 14:39 | Report Abuse

SG logistic will be taken by Ah JIB gor....

Posted by stockraider > 2017-07-13 14:42 | Report Abuse

Raider think...very unlikely...even with partnership...people will be willing to part their stake that cheap mah....!!

So the explaination can come from either that shell damn stupid or there are some payoff out of records.. as a reward for the cheap depress price loh....!!

In fact, raider think a combination of both loh...!!
This multinational treat shell refinery as peanuts pocket change mah..!!
So unlikely to raise too much hue & cry for the cheap disposal loh..!!

Same has happen to esso, a few years early...when it was sold for a song loh..!!
So the explaination can come from either that esso damn stupid or there are some payoff out of records as a reward for the cheap depress price loh....!!

Then u look at alcom again dispose at a depress price of Rm 0.64...today it is rm 1.73 plus rm 0.225 div loh...!!
Why within a few mths after the disposal alcom has gone up so much leh ?
So the explaination can come from either that Alcan damn stupid or there are some payoff out of records as a reward for the cheap depress price loh....!!

Having discuss.. the anomaly above the strategy is not whim on any self pity, it is how value investors can take advantage from the stupid transactions and how to tackle the false mkt perception loh...!!

If u have bought bcos of the stupid transaction price, raider says u can profit at least 100% loh...!!

For example EPF is so stupid to dispose shell at Rm 2.00 to rm 2,40 loh...!!
Reason there do not know how to value stock and overcome by Mr mkt loh..!!

Posted by resilient911 > 2017-07-13 15:15 | Report Abuse

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1589397177737190&substory_index=0&id=183843371625918

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 15:18 | Report Abuse

Posted by probability > Jul 13, 2017 02:21 PM | Report Abuse

actually if you want to talk about future...even humanity existence (at least the population growth) is under a big question mark?

all gdp will be shrinking then... Japan now would be the glimpse of the future to come for developing countries..


Thts why most fund managers invest in ASIA now. Emerging Markets as well. Population in Europe, US getting older after baby boomer time. same to HK, Taiwan, SG now as well.

China see much far than us. Africa is next growing places.

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 15:26 | Report Abuse

For example EPF is so stupid to dispose shell at Rm 2.00 to rm 2,40 loh...!!
Reason there do not know how to value stock and overcome by Mr mkt loh..!!

They have no choice I guess. They have stop loss mechanism. they trade without emotion, only execute according to rules

Posted by stockraider > 2017-07-13 15:27 | Report Abuse

IF U WANT TO TALK FUTURE IS ALWAYS UP LOH....!!

FUTURE ALWAYS MORE PEOPLE LOH...!1

FUTURE PEOPLE ALWAYS BECOME RICHER BCOS OF COMPOUNDING AND INFLATION LOH....!!

FUTURE THERE WILL BE MORE CARS, MORE HOUSES, MORE MCDONALDS STALLS...MORE CONSUMPTION ETC...ETC LOH...!!

BE POSITIVE ...FUTURE MEANS MORE & MORE MAH...!1

FUTURE MEANS SHARE PRICE UP & UP LOH....!!

GENERALLY FUTURE MEANS MORE N MORE AND UP N UP LOH...!!

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 15:34 | Report Abuse

not necessary raider. look at Japan

Posted by probability > 2017-07-13 15:47 | Report Abuse

Icon if you are planning to come up with a next article with quantitative valuations, suggest to explain on the USD Debt effects, how would the strengthening RM affects the qtr results. My accounting knowledge at kindergarten level..

Posted by KLCI King > 2017-07-13 16:45 | Report Abuse

Risk takers all jumped into longkang.

I help Icon finish his title:
(Icon) Ekovest - Gigantic Money Machine Likely Intact. Time For Risk Takers To Jump In.... longkang

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600125959.jsp

Posted by Alex Foo > 2017-07-13 16:47 | Report Abuse

article out = play short = profit ??

Posted by Flintstones > 2017-07-13 18:10 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the informative article

Posted by aseng > 2017-07-13 18:20 | Report Abuse

whether HY is a crook or not a crook is second important , most important it must convince us that it is capable like petronm to generate more FCF and reduce debt.
if not..... it is still better to keep it as girl friend and keep in the car not at home....
but beware of the fact that, girl friend is always more exciting than wife, never upgrade her to your wife and hope she will perform better than your wife if she still need to rely on heavy debt to live well......

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-13 19:34 | Report Abuse

Walao. Wife and gf. Good hypothesis

Posted by probability > 2017-07-13 19:39 | Report Abuse

yeah just dont let the wife know...
obviously we can see the 'in & out' is more with gf..

once she is pregnant, u have to give her same status whether u like it or not...official or not...

Posted by aseng > 2017-07-13 19:49 | Report Abuse

probability sifu,

based on your calculation, she should get pregnant fast, if not , this lady is too difficult to understand .......

Posted by probability > 2017-07-13 19:53 | Report Abuse

period just over...now fertile week (dont give up this limited chance)...next month already deliver...

after that she is as good as ur wife lor..

Posted by aseng > 2017-07-13 19:58 | Report Abuse

I ready in out this lady a few times lah.....
in then enjoy the beauty with the sound of silence
out then come here to sing song loh.....
but never give up, the beauty is still there

Posted by probability > 2017-07-13 20:07 | Report Abuse

keep singing...but ensure nobody sings better than you...
u never know when she'll say bye bye to u..

now a lot of big shots with BMW eyeing her...
they are writing poems to describe her beauty in i3

Posted by lching > 2017-07-13 20:20 | Report Abuse

for me, rule number one : never touch a red chips. period.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-13 20:23 | Report Abuse

ok but you want to look at her..

Posted by pang72 > 2017-07-13 21:19 | Report Abuse

It is getting much attraction than the past. no regret to buy. Huge potential. Low price. Before it become very popular, better own it first. See like aseng said..in out many time...i guess many is watching closely to get in if they are not buy yet

Posted by pang72 > 2017-07-13 21:20 | Report Abuse

Quarter report shall be at august...it is almost time to push

Posted by davidtslim > 2017-07-13 23:35 | Report Abuse

Tq.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2017-07-14 00:45 | Report Abuse

For those who haven't bought, please read this first. This is a fair piece of information, 自己保重，呵呵！

http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20160124/14186027_0.shtml

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2017-07-14 00:55 | Report Abuse

The original intention was to sell the excess Chinese products through Malaysia, but failed because there is no quota.

http://f.sdnews.com.cn/sdcj/201705/t20170526_2246145.htm

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2017-07-14 01:00 | Report Abuse

This is in 2014, the general manager said business was very difficult.

http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/cyxw/20141122/001920888604.shtml

Posted by CKCS > 2017-07-14 07:49 | Report Abuse

Worst of all, ChongJiauJau aka the "banana salesman" was very cocky before but he has since deleted all comments and his personal cocky comments. I found out also the loser named "probability" also deleted all his cocky comments entirely wiped clean!!!! WTF? so probability and ChongJiauJau is actually same dude. Both accounts erased/deleted clean all their bragging cocky comments. Now I see what kind of loser this probability is! cowardly deleted all his cocky comments...I wouldn't caught him red-handed if he didn't delete those his bragging comments!

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-14 12:47 | Report Abuse

Flag this jokers

Posted by stockraider > 2017-07-14 13:08 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2017-07-14 16:42 | Report Abuse

haha . raider bro. relax. Buy and hold we can see 100% here

Posted by Albukhary > 2017-07-14 17:34 | Report Abuse

Why HengYuan is named as Teapot? Any particular reason?

Posted by BornToSpeculate > 2017-07-14 22:51 | Report Abuse

Change of credible board members not a red flag ?

Just FYI, for those that doesnt read details. The 'successful refinancing' has resulted in the borrowing rates going up from LIBOR + 0.6% to 0.7% to LIBOR + 3.5%!

i.e. which means its a terrible financing terms and to give you an idea of the change in the risk profile for the Bank from vendor to new buyer.

Someone mentioned Shell wasnt doing well so they wanted to cash out now this business is suddenly so profitable ? No one asking the right questions seriously. What has changed and what did Heng Yuan bring to the table ?

Im no O&G expert, but i will just say this. Someone else mentioned that refining margins are fixed and they dont really have to 'worry' about prevailing oil price levels. Unless they are the only refinery around, market supply demand on refinery margins will apply. And if this was really true. why did an oil company like Shell sell at a super discount ?

What i believe is dont fight nature / gravity. O&G and Property sectors are downtrend and will continue to be but you can always try and argue they are gems still in the sector and justify just about anything.

Posted by probability > 2017-07-14 23:01 | Report Abuse

simple explanation:

see the figures from early 2016: convert to dotted graph to 'Area' graph for better visualization...

Gasoline:

http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=D1N&title=JUL_2017_Singapore_Mogas_92_Unleaded_%28Platts%29_Brent_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=0&monthYear=N7&year=2017&exchangeCode=XNYM

Fuel Oil:

http://www.cmegroup.com/apps/cmegroup/widgets/productLibs/esignal-charts.html?code=STS&title=JUL_2017_Singapore_Fuel_Oil_180_cst_%28Platts%29_6.35_Dubai_%28Platts%29_Crack_Spread_&type=p&venue=1&monthYear=N7&year=2017&exchangeCode=XNYM