I welcome it if it really drop till to 0.5... May be can sleep earlier. This is no longer a hope/fundamental/technical analysis... Is goreng and competition of patience/holding power...
Your argument doesn't add up, spent so much to press down and save so little. It should be: as share price is lower, then subscription price is lower, mah!
as long as sendai no loss a few hundred millions,surely got hope.same goes to other companies,profit down can make the price down but not collapse unless loss a lot
Existing shareholdings before any PP - let's say 773 million PP shareholdings - 77 million After PP - 850 million
Profit per quarter - 23 m (using 5% profit margin, recent crude price increase and middle east business recovering may even further boost up the margin, Company also expect following quarters will do well) Annualised profit = 23 m x 4 = 92 million
Using PE 10, price will be 92 m / 850 m x 10 = 1.08 (after PP) Using PE 10, price will be 92 m / 773 m x 10 = 1.19
So we will expect even after PP, price will move to 1.10 level. If before PP, the price target think is around 1.20.
How about current borrowings ?
We need to exclude bills payable since this relate to customers receipts and also exclude bank overdraft since small figure. Then the main focus is term loan 579 m.
Company how to repay the loan, might use following funds: - Cash and bank balance 150-200 m (within 4 qtrs) - PP funds received about 70 m - Balance 50% will be thru liftboats payment received within next qtr and any and term loan drawdown (you can refer to amount due to contract customers for liftboat and other construction project)
Estimate if need to raise fund about 70 m, PP price need to be around 0.90 - 1.10 level otherwise the PP fund received will be lesser (so far think only 5th tranche of PP), and PP investor think have at least 15%-20% margin on this, if 20% margin, price will need to go to 1.10 level.
So, think price will rebound and cross over 1.00 soon. Sendai is also O&G counter, think still missed today run .... should catch up soon .......
Buy before surge ..... last call ...................
This is the message I want to bring out. I have bought this share around 50 sen. The main purpose of this message wants to bring about is to alert shareholders not to be panic. I am not saying this is a worldclass company but they are building worldclass building. Industry wise, they are in construction which is fairly competitive. Margin is definitely is not a nice double digit figure.
But, if you sell at this moment, it might indicates you do not understand the rule of stock market, being shaken out. Fundamental is an important knowledge. Understanding the rule of finance market is also equally important.
@andyhard, I agreed with your logical thinking but my point of view is when the manipulator will push up the price as I have seen they taken this opportunities for profit taking. Furthermore, the new PP share being subscript now will gain ~9-10% if market price stay above 0.90 as they can start offload the share into market.
Technically, it is end of the falling market. How fast it would rebound? We need the confirmation on the supply side... Generally, it is a good sign...There are quite a number of stocks performing the same way...If u wish to learn...I may give you the sign when it is ready...Btw..I don't think the banker is here to have fast gain...
You may private message me..I do not do open comment as everyone have different view
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
john doe
749 posts
Posted by john doe > 2017-09-20 19:50 | Report Abuse
Only those who bought high will get scared out of shit! haha...