Posted by eskaylien > 2018-09-12 16:38 | Report Abuse

Teoct,

What's the anasuria vendor tax rate when prices exceed USD75?

Posted by teoct > 2018-09-12 21:42 | Report Abuse

@eskaylien, the "tax" rate is US$ 0.15 x (US$ Y - US$ 75) per barrel where US$ Y is the annual average oil price in a calendar year. And this is only applicable from 2018 to 2021 only. This rate, US$ 0.15 is considered a windfall payment to the Vendors. The only assumption made was whether this will be applicable to the annual production (of Anasuria) or only those production where the oil price exceeded US$ 75 per barrel.Thank you for reading.

Have a good week ahead.

Posted by dusti > 2018-09-14 12:56 | Report Abuse

Yay yay yay

Posted by bukithot > 2018-09-15 15:10 | Report Abuse

Thanks teoct for very insightful article!

Referring to the 2018 Jun results briefing video (Quarterly Financial Report 30 June 2018 Webcast), it was mentioned that there is planned maintenance to North Sabah fields over the next two financial quarters. Anyone knows...

What is the implication of the maintenance to production?
Does it mean that there will be no oil production from North Sabah over the next two quarters?
What is the frequency for the maintenance? How about Anasuria?

Posted by teoct > 2018-09-15 15:22 | Report Abuse

@myongcc5, thank you very much for reading and your kind comment. Have a good weekend.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-09-15 15:33 | Report Abuse

There is a lot of interest in a detailed analysis of Sapura.....The IB analysts have not done a good job.

Posted by teoct > 2018-09-15 15:54 | Report Abuse

@bukithot, from my limited knowledge, the maintenance work will normally not affect the production. Even if it does, it will normally be planned in such a way that there will be minimum disruption to production, i.e. not the whole two quarters there will be no oil production. It does not work like this.

Do not forget, at North Sabah, there are so many wells and platforms and different fields (St Joseph, South Furious, Barton, etc), so maintenance maybe only at St Joseph, say, the other fields are still producing.

And some type of maintenance will, after completion of the maintenance, enhance oil production. But generally, maintenance is to maintain/improve up-time, this is already good. Imagine a bus go into the workshop for quick engine oil change and brake check then back on road carrying paying passengers, up-time. Or major maintenance to lengthen bus to carry more passengers.

Frequency - now, most if not all operators are performing maintenance on need basis rather than time basis. That is, they will monitor the equipment for wear & tear. However it is not so simple as these are offshore (not on land) so it will very much depend on the availability of maintenance resources and some maintenance will be carried out on opportunity basis (of available resources). By and large, frequency maybe a year to a year and a half. For Anasuria, it will be similar subject to the regulation in that jurisdiction.

The implication of maintenance will mean higher cost of production.

Hope this gives a feel to the working of an oil (& gas) production and not confuse you.

Thank you for reading and have a good weekend.

Posted by teoct > 2018-09-15 16:14 | Report Abuse

@qqq3, thank you for reading. Yes there is a lot of interest in Sapura. From my simple understanding, it own a gas field in Sarawak water (I maybe wrong), and all the others are exploration, that is, no production.

Hibiscus is already producing oil and getting cash for it. Sapura is a dream (exploration), there maybe oil or maybe nothing. Even if they find oil (and in sufficient quantity), to get the oil out will mean another 5 to 7 years down the road. So one is buying a dream. BIG DIFFERENT, DREAM AND CASH.

The remaining part of Sapura business is services to oil (& gas) majors, yes they are winning some contracts but I rather stick to the one that is producing oil, i.e. CASH, NOW (rather than 5 to 7 years later and maybe only).

To some "investors", dream is cool, more sexy even.

Have a good weekend.

Posted by loonginv > 2018-09-15 16:29 | Report Abuse

thanks teoct ! nice sharing

Posted by teoct > 2018-09-19 10:35 | Report Abuse

@loonginv, thank you for reading. Have a good week ahead.

Posted by teoct > 2018-12-08 11:52 | Report Abuse

Do listen to interview at BFM: https://www.bfm.my/bg-kenneth-pereira-hibiscus-petroleum-what-will-fuel-hibiscus-future-growth

Posted by teoct > 2018-12-08 12:27 | Report Abuse

Dr. Pereira said the new PS2-ST is producing net 1,000 bpd and follow on said Anasuria should be producing 4,200 bpd. Press conference after AGM, he said total production for FY2019 will be 2.7 to 3 mb. Hmm, this is conservative.

But the interesting bit (in the BFM interview) is Marigold and Sunshine, the new North Sea acquisition. This will be developed to produce oil around end 2021 at about 10k to 12k bpd. Should Anasuria and North Sabah maintain current production in FY2022, then total daily production will be about 22kbpd. EPS in 2022 would be 30 sens (oil price USD76 Ex to RM 4). At current price, buying for future (2022 - 3 years time), PER would only be about 3.5.

Potentially, price of Hibiscus in 2022 would be about RM 3.50

Have a good week ahead.