Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 13:11 | Report Abuse

Oh not to forget, steel price plummeted from 4600 Yuan / MT to around 3800 Yuan / MT, which means the cost of sales for this coming QR should be much much lower!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 14:44 | Report Abuse

Don't miss out this REAL HIDDEN GEM!!! ECRL WILL BE A HUGE HUGE TAILWIND FOR ECONPILE

Posted by Investor 999 > 2019-03-31 15:37 | Report Abuse

OK i will buy 10mil shares and push up the price for you tomorrow.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 15:37 | Report Abuse

You sure you don't want to buy your VS instead? Might need your help to push up to 1.30

Posted by Investor 999 > 2019-03-31 15:58 | Report Abuse

Do not worry because fund has been allocated for VS.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 15:59 | Report Abuse

That's good for you then... Maybe you need to pump more so it can reach your 1.30 faster !

Posted by ahhui > 2019-03-31 16:15 | Report Abuse

WOW TYCOON IS INTERESTED IN IKAN BILIS SHARE??????? MALAYSIA BOLEH YEH!! MILLIONS AND BILLIONS OF INVESTMENT LEH LOL HAHAHAH

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 16:16 | Report Abuse

you believe him kah... joker lah every counter he say will buy 10 mil shares really buto

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 18:06 | Report Abuse

You all need to think like this, Econpile is like your smartest kid, always get As for all the subjects. Then all of a sudden, get one F. You must be shocked right. What could be the reason leh? But one thing you need to know is, in future will he continue getting As if you rectify whatever problem that caused him get the F in the first place?

Posted by Iamyou > 2019-03-31 18:55 | Report Abuse

Guan Eng said 121 projects worth 14bil will go on after renegotiation. This will delay projects progress. So a lot of developers/contractors still under financially stressed due to projects on hold. I think is too early to expect Econpile to get As in their next QR.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 19:11 | Report Abuse

I don't mind if this kid get another F for the next QR, as long as in the next 2 - 3 years he can continue getting an A that will be good

Posted by Iamyou > 2019-03-31 19:23 | Report Abuse

2 - 3 years? That's a long time. There are many other potential companies to invest in 3years. You can always come back to Econpile when it is ready to get A.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 19:32 | Report Abuse

sorry wrong info, 2-3 QRs I mean. Actually I am sure for next QR they can turn profitable once more! When they report their QR in May. If I am wrong I buy you Family Mart Ice Cream!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 19:35 | Report Abuse

I am 101% confident that this QR loss is an one off black swan event!

Posted by Iamyou > 2019-03-31 19:38 | Report Abuse

Good luck to you.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 20:20 | Report Abuse

Thank you!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-03-31 20:21 | Report Abuse

For me, being in the construction line, I always look at the business risk and the payment capability of clients first and foremost, not how much profit I will earn.

In essence, when I judge for projects to pick up, as technical manager I always reserve the right to veto any project "awarded" by a client who does not have cash or bank facility to pay.

These days most of these seem to be developers. As you will know, public Bank and Hong Leong are famous for not giving out bridging loans to developers.

The reason is because Malaysian developers operate under a sell then build concept, unlike Australia and overseas where the system is more a build then sell method.

This allows them to over leverage and sell projects using other people's money, which in this case includes econpile.

You see, being in the construction line in Malaysia, you don't actually get any down payment to start work. Its always a progressive claim system. Meaning you do first, when complete 20% then claim, so on and so forth.

Even for government projects it is the same thing.

Therefore using business sense, the key criteria for valuing econpile is not in its earnings and profits and order book. But in its receivables, and impairments of those receivables.

The faster you complete a project, the faster you can claim and move on to the next job. As most developers no longer have much finances, everything becomes slower, delayed and cancelled.

If your piling equipment becomes idle, you can lose money very fast.

What do you think is the future of the property development market in Malaysia, especially for high rise buildings?

Posted by nckcm > 2019-03-31 20:25 | Report Abuse

Uncle philip buy warrant maaa

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-03-31 20:33 | Report Abuse

Looking at note B9 for this quarter
31.12.2018 30.06.18

Neither past due nor impaired 200,446 299,923
1 to 60 days past due not impaired. 125,936 36,607
61 to 120 days past due not impaired 51,224 39,148
More than 121 days past due not impaired 19,638 42,709
196,798 118,464
Impaired 17,663. 2,806

I would monitor closely the aging for econpile, especially for its property development clients.ever year there is less and less individuals qualifying for a bank loan to buy property.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-03-31 20:37 | Report Abuse

he started so many threads to talk same thing.


https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600200301.jsp

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 20:37 | Report Abuse

Thanks for feedback Unker Philip!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-03-31 20:40 | Report Abuse

As I have personal experience in pilecaps and micropiles, especially an expert in using my trusty hitachi excavator to hammer those piles down, I know a thing a two about piling, which is why I don't really see anything special about econpile which cannot be replaced by China contractors doing projects these days, other than the fact that econpile does have a very good management team.

Having said that, piling work usually gets paid first, as it is the first portion to be claimed in your s&p agreement. I pity those who are roofing contractors and finishing work painters. Those always seem to go bankrupt these days.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 20:43 | Report Abuse

Unker I think econpile more towards the drilling one, not hammering one these days, because very noisy. Bored piling I think it's called. And you really need to see their KL project, very impressive in such dense area, even with the LRT tunnel so close!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 20:43 | Report Abuse

aiyo unker qqq3, that one is my stock pick for 2019. This one is econpile lah. I think you discussed at the wrong place mah

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-03-31 20:51 | Report Abuse

As a subcontractor, some costs cannot be "managed". I believe in the future there will be more and more lawsuits and payment delays for econpile property developers ( and government projects).

If I had to choose a company, I would rather choose a good developer/maincon over a good subcontractor.

They always seem to get the shaft.

Notice how I always stick to QL, WEIDA and TOPGLOVE. Best paymasters in the market. I have yet to see a property development project where my boss is not forced to contra a unit or 2, or 10.

My advice if you really want to invest in construction line? Try to stick to companies which have more business units in top of their core competency, like trading (gkent water meter and wtp operation and management contract), manufacturing ( scientex film wrap business and property development, operations and management ( cypark with is environment engineering... And landscaping).

Not that I am shamelessly promoting those stocks, but I just hate property developers with a vengeance.

I do not see a good end to property developers in the short to medium term.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 20:53 | Report Abuse

Okay thanks for the advice Unker Philip, appreciate it

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 20:53 | Report Abuse

You are right lah, nowadays seems to have some difficulty getting payment liao, just recently they began to file a lawsuit against one customer already...

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 20:55 | Report Abuse

But ah unker don't hate econpile, they are not a property developer, just that they target high end property developer for piling solutions only.So far I don't see many property development projects in their pipeline (these projects usually give higher margin). They are moving more towards the lower margin infrastructure projects...

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 22:55 | Report Abuse

Watch this counter for the following weeks, or just for April !

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-03-31 22:55 | Report Abuse

Best of luck everyone, Heil!

Posted by (Clark GKent) Philip > 2019-04-01 07:19 | Report Abuse

I never said I hate econpile, I just said I hate property developers, which is 50+% of econpile customer base. The possibility of property developer delaying and stop payments will become higher as time goes on. Government is more reliable, but with LGE at the helm, the possibility of mega projects under new government compared to old administration will be much lower, for the short to mid term.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-01 09:54 | Report Abuse

I have no comment on the property part. But ECRL, seems very likely to continue...

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-04-01 09:54 | Report Abuse

Phillip is relatively accurate here.

Econpile needs to drop another 50% before its near the price i would pay.

Weida is privatized d i think.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-04-01 10:01 | Report Abuse

I am not a fan of cypark, as the renewable segment is being built on borrowings, and solar is fundamentally noncompetitive at double the cost of coal, and completely unsuited towards it role as a baseload generator. Solar lives on the pleasure of the government. If yeo Bee Yin say no more subsidies for solar, those plants are going to die in one day.

As for gkent, before the lrt3 etc projects, they were nothing but water meter suppliers, and the occasional building materials to construction co. After they met rosmah, they got all these contracts.

One thing you should note is this. GKENT can't build anything to save their lives, they subcontract out every single thing. Under the PDP model, they just take free money as the management fee.

Now that its no longer PDP, but fixed price, with undoubtedly much lower margins. Would they be able to maintain their previous earnings? I doubt it. How much will it fall? No idea. Would it even turn to loss? No idea.

If they were kerjaya prospek who build everything themselves, i would have more confidence. But they arent.

maybe others know more. But i don't.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-01 10:15 | Report Abuse

Wah choivo boy, you mean Econpile needs to drop until below or around NTA only priced fairly ah? That's very wrong lo, you buy ECONPILE for it's Earning Power mah! Just like any of the good companies, you don't buy it for their net assets, are you an investor or liquidator leh? Look at their past performance, they have achieved an impressive revenue growth at a CAGR of 17++ % lehhh.... Double digit growth, specialised piling contractor. You can say piling is easy, even China contractor can do it. But if in a city high dense area... You need their specialised tools mah, you just can't hammer the piles like you are at home when you are in a densely populated area, and of course still got LRT tunnel leh! Only Econpile can do it, that's their MOAT lo!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-01 10:16 | Report Abuse

CAGR of 11% sorry**

Posted by adamsmith > 2019-04-01 10:22 | Report Abuse

PH will stir the economy by awarding big projects before 2021 if they are going to have a chance to win the next GE

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-01 10:24 | Report Abuse

Correct lo, Malaysia is still a developing country mah! If no infrastructure how to advance leh! Economy GDP growth declining already!!! Bank Negara considering to cut rates to spur more growth! IF PH Don't do something, they won't be here after the next GE!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-01 10:27 | Report Abuse

Okay lah enough of promoting later everyone think I am the next Unker K** want to trap Ikan Bilis... No lah Forget about Econpile guys... I think it's not that good actually!

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-04-01 10:56 | Report Abuse

Heavenly.

There is no moat in this co. The industry is one of a cost based on where there is little competitive edge.

if it was selling for less than the cost to start it up, and with a good management in there. Im willing to think about it seriously.

Right now, its selling at 8 times of its all time peak earnings, when Najib was in power and doling out fat contracts with thick margins left right centre.

Now when PH have pushed down all the margins, how much money will it make? Well not sure and the co is not cheap enough for me.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-01 13:29 | Report Abuse

Choivo boy that's not very true, most of their contracts are high end property development projects (roughly 80%) in the past, so you cannot attribute the fat margins to Najib. Secondly, even selling at 8 times the peak earnings, you have to account for their earnings growth in the future which have been very very consistent (double digits growth in the past 5 years). And to note, if they company operates only in the piling business, there's a reason why they are still here even the construction industry is known to be extremely competitive.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-01 15:35 | Report Abuse

Heavenly Pick!

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > 2019-04-03 19:17 | Report Abuse

PUNTER never bring people to Holland.

Posted by Heavenly PUNTER Research IB > 2019-05-06 15:00 | Report Abuse

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/econpile-sees-new-hope-revived-projects

1 month ago Punter made the right call, the rationale behind my pick was in line with the Group's CEO recent interview with The Edge, within 2 weeks time we will see whether the management can deliver what they said or not. I am 99% confident the coming QR will be green, and this FY19 profit will be around 20+ million.