Posted by PelhamBlackFund > 2020-06-18 22:44 | Report Abuse

Glove stocks continue to collapse after overheating and over optimism.

Topglove: Investors begin to question analysts FY21 earnings calculation for Topglove and drastic normalization in earnings after FY21.

Supermax: Investors begin to understand that higher OBM revenue does not translate to higher profit as cost is not well maintain.



The only sustainable glove stock is Hartalega.

- 51% of Hartalega's revenue are from US and medical healthcare. The worst Covid hit region and growing is US. No other glove companies have larger presence in the US.

- Many investors begin to understand that Topglove's ASP rise to US37/'000 gloves will be catch up by Hartalega. Hartalega's customers had reach out to Topglove to quote forward sales and noted that Topglove's ASP is higher, giving the chance for Hartalega to raise ASP to US$33 to US$35/'000 pieces.

- Hartalega is the only glove company in the world that able to produce Antimicrobial glove on a big scale. Once approved by FDA, this glove will be sold out for many years until FY2022 and beyond. This gloves are already sold in the Europe.

- World shortage is on nitrile gloves, not latex gloves. Hartalega produces 95% nitrile gloves. No other glove company produce as much nitrile glove as Hartalega.

- Next quarter earnings expected to be RM250mil- RM300mil, Q2'21 is expected to jump to RM500mil and Q3'21 is expected to jump to RM700mil.

- Not like Topglove who will be left with huge idle production lines post Covid, Hartalega will be able to maintain margin efficiency due to not expanding in a big scale in FY21.

- Harta's net profit margin is expected to fetch 35%-39% (vs Topglove of 23%).

- Foreign investment banks have upgraded Hartalega to between RM17 to RM23, while local investment bank lag due to wrong focus on Supermax.